Detecting Deception: Advanced Techniques in Fraud Detection

In an era where financial transactions are increasingly digital, the risk of fraud continues to rise. This presentation highlights our comprehensive approach to fraud detection, utilizing cutting-edge technologies and analytics. We cover various types of fraud, explore machine learning algorithms, and demonstrate real-world applications that enhance detection accuracy. Attendees will gain insights into the latest trends, tools, and strategies for mitigating fraud risks, ensuring a more secure environment for businesses and consumers alike. Join us to discover how proactive measures can safeguard your organization against fraudulent activities! for more information visit: https://bostoninstituteofanalytics.org/data-science-and-artificial-intelligence/

1. Agenda: Fraud Detection

2. Introduction Importance of Detecting Fraudulent Transactions : Fraudulent transactions are a growing risk for businesses, leading to financial losses and damaging consumer trust. As digital commerce expands, detecting fraud is critical to prevent reputational harm and regulatory penalties. Machine learning offers a solution by analyzing transaction data to detect fraud patterns, helping companies minimize losses and safeguard customers.

3. Overview of the Dataset Total Number of Records : The dataset contains 11,142 transaction records .

4. Overview of the Dataset Class Imbalance : The dataset is highly imbalanced with 10,000 legitimate transactions and 1,142 fraudulent transactions , making fraud detection more challenging. Features : The dataset has 10 features , including both categorical and numerical variables: Categorical Variables : type: Type of transaction (e.g., transfer, cash out). nameOrig : Origin account identifier. nameDest : Destination account identifier. Numerical Variables : amount: The transaction amount. oldbalanceOrg , newbalanceOrig : Original and new balance of the origin account. oldbalanceDest , newbalanceDest : Original and new balance of the destination account. Target Variable ( isFraud ) : Identifies whether a transaction is fraudulent (1) or legitimate (0).

5. Dataset Content

6. Data Exploration (EDA)

7. Insights

8. Feature Correlation

9. Boxplot of Fraud by Transaction Amount:

10. Feature Engineering Categorical Variable Encoding : The categorical variables (e.g., transaction type, location) cannot be used directly by machine learning algorithms. These were encoded into numerical values using LabelEncoder , which assigns a unique integer to each category. Numeric Variable Encoding : Purpose : Scale the amount column to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 (for better performance with models). Output : The amount column will now contain standardized values.

11. Model Selection and Training Purpose : Split the dataset into features (X) and target (y) and then into training (70%) and testing sets (30%). Output : You’ll have separate data for training and testing.

12. Training and Evaluation: Purpose : Train each model and print performance metrics. Output : You’ll get accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC for each model, helping you determine which model performs best.

13. Performance Evaluation: Purpose : Plot confusion matrices to visualize the distribution of predictions. Plot ROC curves to compare the models' ability to differentiate between classes. Output : Confusion Matrix : A heatmap showing true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives. ROC Curve : A curve showing the model’s performance across various thresholds.

14. Financial Impact Analysis

15. Conclusion In this fraud detection analysis, we used three machine learning models: Logistic Regression , Random Forest , and Gradient Boosting to identify fraudulent transactions. The best-performing model was Gradient Boosting , as it achieved the highest ROC AUC score , indicating a better ability to distinguish between fraudulent and legitimate transactions. Random Forest also performed well, offering a good balance of precision and recall, making it effective for handling complex patterns in the data. Logistic Regression provided a baseline performance, but its simpler nature made it less effective in detecting the more nuanced cases of fraud. Key limitations include the significant class imbalance , where fraudulent transactions make up only a small portion of the dataset. This may lead to biases toward predicting legitimate transactions and could affect the recall and precision of our models.

16. Questions ?

17. Thank You !