Disaggregating Data for High Impact Development Policies -workshop- 29-oct-2025, Juan De Laiglesia

The workshop “Disaggregating Data for Impactful Development Policies” convened experts, policymakers, and civil society representatives to assess progress in disaggregated data and distributional impact analysis in development contexts. It also explored practical solutions to current challenges, drawing on successful experiences from both OECD and non-OECD countries.

1. Understanding the Distributional
Impacts of Policies in Driving
Successful Reforms
The case of energy subsidy reform in the Western Balkans
–Supporting slides
Juan R de Laiglesia, Head of Country Diagnostics and Strategy Unit
OECD Development Centre

2. 2
Low electricity prices provide support to citizens, but
channel value to many who do not need it (Serbia)
Impact of a 40% subsidy in electricity price in Serbia
Source: OECD (2025), Energy prices and subsidies in the Western Balkans
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RSD per capita
Income decile
Transfer relative to income (lhs)Absolute size of transfer

3. 3
Low electricity prices provide support to citizens, but
channel value to many who do not need it
*
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
0
1
2
3
4
5
12345678910
ALL per
capita
%
Decile of consumption expenditure
Albania
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1
2
3
4
5
12345678910
BAM per
capita
%
Decile of consumption expenditure
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1
2
3
4
5
12345678910
EUR per
capita
%
Decile of consumption expenditure
Kosovo*
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
12345678910
EUR per
capita%
Income decile
Montenegro
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
0
2
4
6
8
12345678910
MKD per
capita%
Income decile
North Macedonia
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
0
2
4
6
8
12345678910
RSD per
capita
%
Income decile
Serbia
Transfer relative to income/consumption (left-hand side) Absolute transfers, annual per capita (right-hand side)
* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and the Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo’s declaration of independence.

4. 4
A holistic approach to energy market reform
Identifying subsidies and potential levers for reform
Inventory of over 200 energy subsidies and support measures
across the region, building on OECD inventory
Distributional analysis
Microsimulation of the impact of subsidies and potential reforms
on people
46 Focus groups on energy use and coping strategies across
gender, social backgrounds, rural/urban
Modelling economic impact
Scenarios based on a custom CGE model focused on energy
How to go about it in practice?
Engaged 190+ participants through peer-learning workshops
Reforms for a Fairer and Greener Future –
Recommendations based on new data and scenario
analysis

5. Key figures: EUR 19.1 billion of induced support and
EUR 5.8 billion of financial support over 2018-23
19.1
5.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Induced support Financial support
EUR billions

6. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Albania Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Kosovo Montenegro North Macedonia Serbia
EUR
million
Annual financial support to energyAdditional income (lower bound)Compensation need (lower bound)
Market prices remove the need for financial support and
can finance compensation for the most vulnerable
GDP
+0.24%
GDP
+0.13%
GDP
+0.17%
GDP
+0.1%
GDP
+0.15%
GDP
+0.26%
Lower bound scenarios: partial convergence to market pricing (+36% for households, +3% for non-households)

7. 7
Distributional analysis: Replacing implicit subsidies
requires scaling up social protection efforts significantly
Source: Petreski (forthcoming), background paper for this project.
North Macedonia: marginal impact of social programmes and energy subsidies (%)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Guaranteed
Minimum
Allowance
Energy
allowance
Energy
subsidy
top-up
Reduced
VAT on
electricity
Reduced
VAT on
fuel
Implicit
energy
subsidy (17%)
Size (% of total household income) Contribution to poverty reduction
Pro-poor targeting (Kakwani index, rhs)