Disaster Risk and Climate Change in developing context

Relations between disasters and climate change

1. Learning Objectives At the end of this session, the participant would be able to: Explain trends in disaster impacts and possible reasons for these Discuss links between climate change and disasters Describe links of climate change to extreme weather events Discuss sectoral impacts of climate related disasters in Ethiopia

2. http://www.windows2universe.org/teacher_resources/online_courses/health/water_disease.html The impact of hazardous events is increasing as global population increases. Additionally there is evidence that weather related natural hazards are increasing in number and intensity as climate changes.

3. Source: IPCC F or the last two decades of the 21 st Century compared to the same period of the 20 th Century. (DJF = December-January-February; JJA = June-July-August) Africa – Projected changes in Temperature (in terms of C change) and Precipitation (in terms of % change)

4. Top 10 countries with highest proportion of affected people over the total population (per 100,000 inhabitants) Top 10 countries with the highest absolute number of affected people (in million) 1995 - 2015

5. Socioeconomic development interacts with natural climate variations and human-caused climate change to influence disaster risk. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk. A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events. SREX (2012) Climate, Disaster Risk and Development

6. A changing clima te leads to changes in e xtreme wea ther and clima te even ts SREX (2012) Extreme weather includes unusual, severe or unseasonal weather. These are events at the extremes of the historical distribution— that has been observed in the past. Used to occur only 5% or less of the time.

7. (a) effects of a simple shift of the entire distribution toward a warmer climate The effect of changes in temperature distribution on extreme w eather e vents (b) effects of an increase in temperature variability with no shift in the mean (c) effects of an altered shape of the distribution, in this example a change in asymmetry toward the hotter part of the distribution IPCC 2012

8. Rainfall Jan 3 -9, 2011 Rainfall Feb 6, 2011 Extreme Climate Event due to La Nina Batticoloa , Sri Lanka, 2011 An unusual precipitation of 512 mm from 3-9 January 2011 flooded Batticoloa affecting 421,851 persons. This was close to 3 times the normal rainfall for January. Another unusual precipitation of about 400 mm was received around 6 th February. This was more than three times the average monthly rainfall for February. The resultant floods killed 13 people and affected more than 900,000 . The loss is estimated at Rs . 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees.

9. Heat waves / Extreme high temperatures Cold waves / Extreme low temperatures / Snow storms Intense storms / Flooding / Heavy rainfall Severe or prolonged droughts Tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons Some Extreme Events 2000-2010

10. Climate Change Impacts Extreme weather (increasing frequency) Temperature increase Sea level rise Precipitation changes

11. Sectoral Vulnerability - Ethiopia

12. Crop simulation studies as well as econometric studies of climate change impacts suggest a negative impact on agricultural crop productivity in Ethiopia on the order of 5 to 10 percent by 2030 due to changes in mean seasonal temperature and precipitation and more severe impacts towards the end of the century. Ethiopia’s high level of unexploited water resource management potential and low fraction of irrigated land suggest that investments in water resource management infrastructure should be an integral component of a climate change adaptation strategy. World Bank Report No. 46946-ET 2008 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/8030/469460ESW0P1101B01PUBLIC1010P110947.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Ethiopia

13. DRR and CCA

14. What the CCA practitioners can do : Enable and facilitate policy dialogues between CCA and HFA-related policy processes . Support analysis and interpretation of risk issues in non- environmentalb government departments (in all sectors as all are exposed to natural hazards and , if vulnerable, can lead to disasters). Share concrete examples and case studies of CCA initiatives with DRR colleagues. Use more narratives & examples and avoid conceptual jargon. Facilitate co-financing between CCA and DRR projects. Conduct economic valuation of CCA impacts in particular countries & sectors and share info with DRR practitioners.

15. What the D RR practitioners can do: Conduct more scenario planning exercises (looking forward) rather than applying a planning envelope that is based on historic hazard occurrences. Support analysis and interpretations of risks in non-DM government departments. Promote a multi-hazard approach rather than single-hazard to early warning systems (EWS need to be hazard-specific but they can be develop, policy-wise, as a DRR component with a multi-hazard approach). Support systematic management and analysis of hydro-meteorological data. DRR practitioners need to get acquainted and understand better CC and its potential impacts (the increase in intensity and frequency of hazards happening in same areas; the same of those happening in new areas where they didn’t happen before; and most importantly the potential impact of new hazards, e.g., melting of glaciers, GLOFs, sea level and sea temperature rise.)

16. Linking local to global actors and responsibilities