DSD-INT 2024 Rainfall nowcasting – now and then - Uijlenhoet

Presentation by Remko Uijlenhoet (TU Delft, Netherlands) at the Symposium AI for Nowcasting. Tuesday, 2 July 2024, Delft.

1. Remko Uijlenhoet
(Deltares, 2 July 2024)
Rainfall
nowcasting –
now and then
(identim/ Shutterstock)

2. Less than three years ago…

3. Storm temporarily stops Germany v Denmark game
(BBC, 29 June 2024)

4. (Science, 23 July 2021, p.372)
(Kreienkampet al., 2021 –World Weather Attribution)

5. •Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
•Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF)
•Digital twins of urban andrural water systems
Ingredients of flood early warning systems

6. QuantitativePrecipitationEstimation
(source: Markus Peura, FMI)
(source: Aart Overeem)

7. Richardson’s“WeatherForecastingFactory” (1922)
(PhD thesis Ruben Imhoff, 2022; ©Stephen Conlin, 1986)

8. Principleof radar rainfallnowcasting
(PhD thesis Ruben Imhoff, 2022)

9. Hydrological processes in river catchments

10. Catchmenthydrologicalmodels
(Schellekens, 2020)
(Brauer et al., 2014)
(e.g. Gao et al., 2014)

11. Streamflow simulation
(Imhoff et al., 2020)

12. Hydrologicalpotentialof radar rainfallnowcasting
(PhD thesis Ruben Imhoff, 2022)

13. Flood early warning systems

14. Design of water systems / urban water management

16. Rainfallhas a verticaldimension
11 Sep. 1998
10 km
15 km
(Berne et al., 2005)
(HYDROMET IntegratedRadarExperiment1998–HIRE’98; Uijlenhoet et al., 1999)

18. (McCabe et al., 2017)
Data revolution
•In situ monitoring
•Ground-based remote sensing
•Spaceborne remote sensing
•Citizen science
•Opportunistic sensing

19. Let’sconsiderrainfall…

20. PHARA: phased-array radar foratmosphericresearch
(phara.tudelft.nl)

21. Tomorrow.io’stwo small radar satellites launched last year, allowing more frequent views of rainfall
(NASA).
(Science, 28 June 2024)
Recent developments in satellite remote sensing

22. Citizenscience: personal weatherstations
(De Vos et al., 2019)

23. (Overeem et al., 2024)
(~11,000 GTS gauges; ~32,000 GPCC gauges)

24. (Overeem et al., 2024)
(~1,300 radars; 200 km range markers)

25. (Overeem et al., 2024)
(~5 million commercial microwave links)

26. (identim/ Shutterstock)
(International Telecommunication Union, 2021)

27. Microwave links as opportunisticraingauges
(Overeem et al., 2013, in collaboration with T-Mobile NL)
Comparable results for Israel, Sweden, Germany, Czech Republic, …

28. RainfallmapsforSri Lanka fromlinks and satellite
(Overeem et al., 2021, in collaboration with GSMA and Dialog)
> 1000 microwave links GPM rain radar

29. 8500 microwave links
GPM radar + radiometers
(Van Lethet al., 2019, in collaboration with GSMA and MTN)
(Gossetet al., 2016)
RaincellAfrica Training School –Burkina Faso, 2015
Comparable results for Cameroon, Kenya, Burkina Faso (, Ghana, Rwanda, …)
RainfallmapsforLagos (Nigeria) fromlinks and satellite

30. (Lin et al., 2024)
Urban applicationsof radar rainfallnowcasting

31. (Lin et al., 2024)
Scale-dependenceof rainfallnowcastingperformance
•RCRPS: Reduction Continuous Ranked Probability Score (higher means larger error)
(averaged over nowcasts between 5-and 30-min lead times)
•Inputs and verifications are with real-time QPE (hence, error is from nowcasting model)

32. Radar networksincrease skilful lead time
(Overeem et al., 2023, ESSD)

33. About three monthsago…

34. [email protected]
Thanks for your
attention!
(identim/ Shutterstock)