Enhancing_Alignment_between_Belize_s_NAP_and_NDC_processes_Johanna_Noble.pdf

Enhancing Alignment between Belize’s NAP and NDC processes | Johanna Noble, Adaptation Officer, National Climate Change Office, Government of Belize

1. Enhancing Alignment
between Belize’s NAP
and NDC processes
Johanna Noble
National Climate Change Office
Ministry of Sustainable Development & Climate
Change

2. Content
Country Context
Introduction
Impacts of Climate Change in Belize
Climate Change Governance
National Climate Change Office
Status of key policy processes – NAP, NDC
Synergies
NDC Update
Conclusion

3. Country Context
•Belize is in the northeast coast of Central America
•Bounded by Mexico to the north, Guatemala to the
west and south, and the Caribbean Sea to the east.
•National Household Population – 2022 Census:
397,483, up 23.3% since last census 2010
•Total number of households: 110,719
•42.2 percent in urban areas, and 57.8 in rural areas
•Tropical climate with two pronounced seasons: wet
(May – Oct) and dry (Nov – Apr)

4. Introduction
•Throughout Belize and the Caribbean, the
consequences of climate change are
already impacting communities and
different sectors
•Given current climate projections for the
region and Belize, impacts will be
exacerbated and have highly noticeable
effects on society and sustainable
development
•Belize’s geographic location and low-lying
coastal areas leave it highly vulnerable and
susceptible to the impacts of climate
change
•Also, economically dependent on natural
resources and the services they provide
•The threat of climate change requires
multilateral action from policy makers,
technical experts, the private sector and
the public, in order to seek solutions and
make changes to reduce global emissions
of greenhouse gases

5. Impacts of Climate Change in
Belize
•Belize is a small country with relatively minor
contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions.
Thus, most impacts will arise from avoiding or
delaying critical adaptation measures.
•It is projected that Belize will be more
drastically affected by the following
risks due to climate change:

6. Impacts in Belize
•Throughout the country, Belize is prone
to flash floods, hotter temperatures, river
overflows, droughts, hurricanes, sea
level rise, saltwater intrusion, ocean
acidification, and sea warming.
•The update of the NCCPSMP also
updated projections of these climate
change impacts.
•Therefore, several measures have been
taken or are proposed to address these
impacts and build resilience against
them.

7. Ocean Acidification
•Projections show that the pH of
Belize’s waters will have an average
decrease within the next century
•Acidified conditions lead to the
dissolving of animal shells and
coral structures

8. Projected mean monthly rainfall
evolution
•Overall decrease in mean average
annual rainfall throughout the
country but slight increase near
mountainous areas in the south
•Dry zones will gain territory over time
•The wet season will observe
decreased numbers of rainy days, but
the intensity of the rains will
substantially increase, leading to
torrential rainfall events
Climate change projections for the 100 years
are that:

9. Decreased
Precipitation
•Updated Climate Change model
projects a gradual yet significant
decrease in annual precipitation
levels, amounting to a decrease of
3.8% within 25 years from current
levels and up to a 11.7% decrease
from current levels by the end of the
century.
•There will be greater differences
between the wet and dry season
and recurring drought conditions are
expected during the dry season.
•Increased competition for water
resources among sectors

10. Increased Air
Temperatures
•Overall, higher air temperatures as
well as recurring, prolonged, and
intensified heat waves are projected
across Belize
•Increased temperatures will reduce
crop yields and lead to heat waves
and stress affecting the agriculture
sector and health sector
•Increased temperatures will also
alter the rates of development and
cause a geographical redistribution
of pests while reducing the
resistance of crops.
•Increased demand for energy

11. Sea Temperature Rise
•Sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing in the coastal
areas of Belize and are expected to continue increasing in the upcoming
century.
•Updated Climate Change Models forecast that the average sea surface
temperature along the coast of Belize will increase by an average of 1°C
within the next 50 years and an average of 2°C within the next 100 years
compared to current average temperatures.
•Affected by temperature increase, weakened corals may not be able to
withstand more frequent and intensified tropical storms and hurricanes,
no longer providing coastal protection from storm surge.
•As Belizean water temperature increases, traditional catches are
expected to migrate from their traditional breeding and living grounds
to other areas.

12. Sea Level Rise
•Rising sea levels threaten the
inundation of low-lying coastal
areas, exacerbate beach erosion,
and contribute to the salinization of
surface and groundwater resources.
•According to the updated Climate
Change Models, within the next 50
years, the sea level in Belize could
rise between 16 and 21 cm
compared to the average current
sea level.
•Inundation threatens the integrity of
settlements, tourist destinations,
and key infrastructure located in
coastal areas.

13. Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
•Given its geographic location in the north-western Caribbean, Belize is
prone to recurring tropical cyclones.
•Both the intensity and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes
are expected to increase in the upcoming century as a result of
Climate Change, leading to detrimental losses in human life,
infrastructure, natural resources, and economic activity.

14. Increased Precipitation
Intensity & Flooding
•Although the amount of rainfall will
decrease, the intensity of precipitation
during the wet season and during
tropical storms/hurricanes will be
significantly increased.
•This will lead to flooding, triggered by
both the overflow of natural water
bodies as well as inadequate drainage
systems countrywide in urban and rural
areas, which can damage infrastructure.
•Damage to infrastructure can lead to
disruption of services such as water,
electricity, transport.
•With increased rain and stagnant water
there will also be more incidences of
water and vector-borne diseases.

15. Climate Change Governance
Ministry of Sustainable
Development & Climate Change

16. Climate Change Governance
Belize signed and ratified the UNFCCC, in 1992 and 1994 respectively
2009 - GOB established Belize National Climate Change Committee
(BNCCC) (guidance to NCCO)
2015 – Official formation of National Climate Change Office (NCCO)
Policy guidance provided by the National Climate Change Policy,
Strategy and Master Plan (NCCPSMP)

17. National Climate Change Office
Established as GOB’s response to the climate crisis
Focal point to UNFCCC
Mobilizes climate change related actions across the country
Coordinates the preparation and submission of international reporting obligations
under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, including NDC and NAPs
BNCCC provides high-level support to national reports before approval to Cabinet

18. NCCO’s Mandate
Communicate
This is to relay information to
the public and private sectors,
local communities and schools
on all aspects of Climate Change
Coordinate
This is to guide the initiative
of having both the public
and private sectors work in
conjunction with each other
to build Belize’s resiliency to
Climate Change
Mainstream
This is to ensure that Climate
Change ideologies enter and
remain in Belizean
colloquialism, action and
decision making

19. Status of key policy processes
•Finance received through the Readiness
and Preparatory Support Programme of
the Green Climate Fund
•A Multisectoral National Adaptation Plan
will be developed for priority sectors:
•Land Use, Human Settlement &
Infrastructure, Agriculture, Tourism, Human
Health and Forestry
•Total funds received: USD 1,487,030
•Implementation period: 34 months
•Submitted through PACT as Direct
Access Entity (DAE) via Belize’s National
Designated Authority (NDA), Ministry of
Economic Development
NAP process

20. NAP process - Outputs
Capacity development plans outlined, and training provided
Climate hazard impact, vulnerability and risk studies elaborated
Comprehensive Gender and Social Assessment elaborated
Adaptation solutions identified to address barriers and vulnerabilities to climate change with adaptation
actions and measures developed and prioritized
Adaptation impact monitoring, evaluation and learning systems established
Communication, outreach and knowledge transfer to relevant public, private and civil society decision-
makers and other stakeholders undertaken
Finance strategy & three concept notes for the prioritized areas developed and submitted

21. Status of key policy processes
Belize’s updated NDC was approved by Cabinet on 25
th
August 2021
NDC with higher ambition, complemented by a Climate Finance Strategy and an NDC Implementation Plan
Sectors targeted for mitigation include land use change & forestry; agriculture; energy; and waste
management
Adaptation sectors: coastal & marine resources; agriculture; fisheries & aquaculture; human health;
tourism; forestry & biodiversity; land use; human settlements & infrastructure; and water resources
Belize is estimated to avoid total cumulative emissions across all sectors of 5,647 KtCO2e between 2021 and
2030
Has a 5% increase in overall commitments
Key sector targets include:
- a 63% increase in GHG removals related to the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector
- increase to 75% of renewable energy in electricity generation.
- sectoral actions to build resilience and develop capacity to adapt to the impacts of Climate Change
NDC process

22. NDC - Ambition and Enhancement
The updated
NDC represents
increased
ambition across
sectors through
the following
enhancements:
Expanded sectoral targets (quantified agriculture emission targets; additional sectors in adaptation
section include land use, human settlements and infrastructure, and forestry and biodiversity)
Increased ambition in existing targets
Expanded coverage of gases covered in targets to include N2O and Methane in AFOLU
interventions
Further specification of targets including addition of timeframes, quantified emissions reductions
and other outcomes
Increased transparency in the development of targets
Additional engagement and consideration of vulnerable populations including indigenous
communities, children and women
Detail on the financing, monitoring and implementation of actions included in the NDC

23. Synergies between NDC and NAP process
•The integration and creation of synergies are streamlined because
the same entity (NCCO) is responsible for reporting NDC
commitments to the UNFCCC and submitting NAPs.
•This alignment allows us to ensure that our plans are intrinsically
linked, fostering a cohesive approach to climate action.
•Current NDC does not take into account this multisectoral NAP
process, it does include adaptation measures for key sectors that
will be addressed in the NAP.
•As we move forward with updating the NDC and advancing the
NAP process, we have a unique opportunity to create strong
linkages between these two critical frameworks.

24. Possible Synergies
1.Ensure that adaptation measures are integrated with mitigation
efforts, creating a comprehensive approach to climate action.
2.Coordinating resource mobilization efforts can attract more significant
financial support and ensure that funds are efficiently allocated to
projects that serve both adaptation and mitigation purposes.
3.Harmonizing stakeholder engagement processes ensures that
adaptation and mitigation efforts are inclusive and reflect the needs
and priorities of all relevant actors.
4.Improving capacity building and institutional strengthening
5.Improving climate risk management

25. NDC Update 2025
•Request for support to NDC Partnership under the Global Call
•Supported by Climate Analytics for:
•Enhancement of NDC (NDC 3.0)
•Belize intends to develop a new NDC by reviewing and revising its mitigation
and adaptation targets to reflect its national circumstances
•Using an all-of society approach to include vulnerable groups and actively
include sub-national governments, civil society and the private sector.
•In reviewing the NDC targets and actions, it will be necessary to further
adjust targets and activities to make them further aligned with existing plans,
policies and strategies.
•Will utilize updated data and information and new technologies, where
available, to improve accuracy

26. Conclusion
To effectively address the impacts of climate change and build the country’s
resilience and low carbon development collaboration among public, private
and government sectors is necessary.
The impacts of CC are cross-sectoral
It is evident that adaptation and mitigation to climate change requires a
multilateral approach, with plans informed by local and scientific knowledge.
Sectors are not affected in insolation, therefore vulnerabilities and appropriate
adaptation measures to decrease them should not be isolated