Everything old is new again

Presentation by Stephanie Rieger of Yiibu at the MobX Conference in Berlin, Germany November 17, 2012.

1. designing for the future
new again
everything old is
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ssoosay/4128397609/

2. “...it takes on average
20 years for a
technology to make
the transition from
first articulation to
maturity (defined as
becoming a $1billion
industry)…the
mouse, for example,
took 30 years. “
– Bill Buxton, Principle
researcher Microsoft Patent 3522664 November 1967

3. the humble fax machine...
(a technology that may finally have outlived its usefulness)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
take for example

4. 1843
Alexander Bain
The fax machine was first
envisioned and patented in 1843
by Scotsman Alexander Bain...
(image shown is of an 1850 iteration)
Image source: Wikipedia

5. 1843 1848
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
...then improved on
(and patented once again)
in 1848 by Frederick Bakewell.
Image source: Wikipedia

6. 1843 1848 1861
Giovanni Castelli
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
Then improved on once again
13 years later, this time by
Giovanni Castelli, an Italian priest...
Pantelegraph image courtesy ITIS Gallileo
Castelli’s pantelegraph

7. Then in 1865, Castelli went
on to establish the first
public fax service...
(the service worked over telegraph lines
and ran between Paris and Lyon)
1843 1848 18651861
Giovanni Castelli
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
first fax
service
Paris
Lyon

8. ...this was still 11 years
before the invention of
the telephone...
(this isn’t unusual—we don’t always know
the true value of a technology until a
related one comes along)
Photo of Bell using the telephone in New York.
1843 1848 18651861
Giovanni Castelli
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
1876
first fax
service
Image source: Wikipedia

9. 1843 1848 18651861
Giovanni Castelli
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
Thomas
Edison
Elisha
Gray
Innocenzo
Manzetti
Alexander
Graham Bell
Johann
Phillip Reis
Antonio
Meucci
Six people were known to have been working on
“voice transmission over a wire” around the
time that Bell was ultimately successful in
obtaining the first patent.
first fax
service
1876
telephone
patent:
Alexander
Graham Bell
Innocenzo
Manzetti
Thomas
Edison
J. P. Reis
Elisha Gray
Antonio
Meucci
Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone

10. Shortly thereafter, a Hungarian engineer by the
name of Tivadar Puskás invented the telephone
switchboard—which allowed for the formation of
telephone exchanges (and eventually networks).
1843 1848 1865 18761861
Giovanni Castelli
Alexander Bain
Frederick Bakewell
1877
Tivadar
Puskás
telephone
exchange:
Tivadar Puskás
Thomas
Edison
Elisha
Gray
Innocenzo
Manzetti
Alexander
Graham Bell
Johann
Phillip Reis
Antonio
Meucci
telephone
patent:
Alexander
Graham Bell
Innocenzo
Manzetti
Thomas
Edison
J. P. Reis
Elisha Gray
Antonio
Meucci
Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone
first fax
service

11. http://www.flickr.com/photos/qwrrty/3989643653
almost immediately—we began
dreaming up ways to move
phones around

12. the early 1920s
A wireless phone prototype for the well-
to-do lady on the town...
an example from
Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube

13. ...of course it’s a bit bulky, so the lady
may need a gentleman to carry it...
Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube

14. “The two ladies are using a small simple HF
radio, probably a ‘Cat’s Whisker’ type. For it
to work it needs to be earthed, which is
why it’s connected to the fire hydrant...”
telephone
box
wire coiled
around a !re
hydrant
Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube

15. “The antenna (or aerial) is the wire in the
umbrella...”
handheld
mouthpiece
- Explanation courtesy of Simon Atkins, an Ex-Royal Signals officer
Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube

16. throughout our environment
the simplest solution was
of course to distribute the phones
Public phone booth: Lancaster county Pennsylvania
(a solution that remained useful for more than 100 years!)

17. Copyright: Popular Science - via modernmechanix.com
also build a portable booth
in a pinch, you could
a mobile phone center for reporters in 1960s Chicago

18. Finally, after twenty years of experimentation
(and the invention of microprocessors) we ended up with this....
1983: the $3,995 DynaTAC
the first mobile telephone that
could connect to the telephone
network without the assistance of
a mobile operator

19. ...which was released about the same time as this.
1984: the Apple Macintosh
the first commercially successful personal
computer to feature a mouse and a
graphical user interface

20. ...the following ten years were pretty much devoted to
finding ways to combine these two concepts....
+

21. ...until in 1993, IBM and Bell South released the world’s
first smartphone: the Simon Personal Communicator...
ooh, rounded corners…

22. Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable
computer with a phone...it also incorporated many
concepts that are now standard on mobile devices...
clock
calendar
address book
email
text messaging
touchscreen
virtual keyboard
electronic sketchpad
handwriting recognition
predictive text input

23. Simon’s creators also envisioned the concept of
apps to personalise and extend the device’s capabilities
+
cartridges designed to !t Simon’s
PCMCIA slot
Accounting
Version 1.0
Music Player
Version 1.1
Camera
Version 1.0
Artist’s rendering based on photos from “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”

24. Simon retailed for $899 and sold about 50,000 units
until it was discontinued due to a combination of
“...technical limitations, product delays, a world-class
corporate meltdown, revolving-door management,
and bad business decisions...”
Source: “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”

25. Simon’s apps were designed to be installed directly onto
the device...yet around that time scientists at Xerox PARC
were experimenting with a slightly different approach...
Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive

26. http://www.flickr.com/photos/armaggeusa/3176297283
The most profound technologies are those that
disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of
everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it….
- Mark Weiser (1991)
“

27. To further explore Weiser’s predictions of the
implications of ubiquitous computing, PARC
developed an office based context-aware
networked computing environment, and a
device they called the PARC TAB.
Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive

28. The TAB was designed to be carried or worn at all times.
It's size, weight, and features were specifically intended to
promote casual, spur of the moment, computing.
chorded keys enabling basic
one-handed navigation
touch screen + stylus
Name: Marge Eldridge
Office: [ ] Ext: 518
Manager:
Manages:
25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770]
“ 14:41 @
” 14:41 511 462983
“ 14:42 @
” 14:45

29. tiny processor =
smaller, cheaper &
more lightweight
(terminal-style)
device
TAB applications
run on a user’s (far
more capable)
desktop system
This level of portability (unheard of in 1993) was
made possible by several key design decisions.
constantly connected to other Tabs
and computers through a series of
infrared communication hubs
added benefit:
contextual awareness
(e.g. location, interactions with
other devices, data and
applications accessed)
(apparently, researchers at Euro PARC were Mac based and developed ways to use and prototype Tab applications on a Mac)

30. This environment also
enabled experiments in
“intimate computing”.
One of these was a context-
aware application prototype
called “Forget-me-not”.
The app was designed to
serve as an “external
memory prosthetic”,
automatically gathering data
(from the TAB or other
devices operating on the
network). This data could be
used by participants to easily
track and recall important
aspects of their lives.
Name: Marge Eldridge
Office: [ ] Ext: 518
Manager:
Manages:
25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770]
“ 14:41 @
” 14:41 511 462983
“ 14:42 @
” 14:45Manages:
25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770]
“ 14:41 @
date timeperson 1 number
dialled
phone
call
person 2
Forget me not: Intimate computing in support of human memory

31. today
19921993
IBM
Simon
PARC
TAB
....the iPhone, Facebook and cloud computing
were still close to 20 years away...
Motorola
DynaTAC
1983
Apple
Macintosh
1984 today

32. http://www.flickr.com/photos/remedios/66912941
is cool, useful or in some way
“superior” it will inevitably thrive
it’s easy to believe that if something
when working with technology

33. ...you’ll never hear someone
spontaneously express a wish
for a ubiquitous house or city.
There are days, in fact, when it
can seem to me that the entire
endeavor has arisen out of
some combination of the
technically feasible and that
which is of interest to people
working in HCI.
- Adam Greenfield, Everyware
“
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dodoorg/5023608260

34. 2012
Google’s
Project Glass
...no matter how cool it may be...many technologies,
ecosystems and conditions must align before an invention
enters the lives of “normal people”.
40 years of innovation including the growth of
the microprocessor, the Internet, the web,
network data protocols, display technologies....
something
normal people
will use :-)
1962 1971
“The Electrocular”
Virtual reality goggles
Dr. Ivan Sutherland
University of Utah
1937
use of reflector sights in
cockpits during World War II

35. 2012
Google’s
Project Glass
something
normal people
will use :-)
1962 1971
“The Electrocular”
Virtual reality goggles
Dr. Ivan Sutherland
University of Utah
1937
use of reflector sights in
cockpits during World War II
It’s worth remembering as well that “normal people” don’t
actually have to use a technology for it to impact their lives...
1960
Gilbert
Klopfstein, a
French test-pilot
creates first HUD
system for use in
commercial
aviation
40 years of innovation including the growth of
the microprocessor, the Internet, the web,
network data protocols, display technologies....

36. 2012
Google’s
Project Glass
something
normal people
will use :-)
1962 1971
“The Electrocular”
Virtual reality goggles
Dr. Ivan Sutherland
University of Utah
1937
use of reflector sights in
cockpits during World War II
...the most useful and widely deployed implementations may
also turn out to be relatively mundane...
1960 1988
BMW implements the
first HUD-integrated
telematics
(modern day version shown)
Gilbert
Klopfstein, a
French test-pilot
creates first HUD
system for use in
commercial
aviation

37. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jordanfischer/61429449
“Technological revolutions have
several interesting properties.
First, we tend to overestimate
the immediate impact and
underestimate the long-term
impact.
Second, we tend to place the
emphasis on the technologies
themselves, when it is really the
social impact and cultural change
that will be most dramatic.”
– Don Norman, Drop everything you’re doing

38. learning how to use
a new technology is one thing...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jcfrog/4692750598

39. making space for it
in our lives is another
http://www.flickr.com/photos/krossbow/4509414056

40. even when the value proposition
should appear obvious
Bell telephone advertisement in National Geographic, 1958 - via Modernmechanix

41. this not only makes it tricky to market new products...
it can also prevent those who design and develop them from
imagining something completely new...

42. From futurists to product designers...we can’t help but insert bits
of the present into our dreams of the future...
...as imagined in 1910
Utopia: The Quest for the Ideal Society in the Western World
telecommunication in the year 2000

43. ...and re-imagined in 1956
Scientific American, 1956 - via Modernmechanix

44. Home of the Future:
as imagined by Disney Imagineering, MIT
and Monsanto in 1957

45. The home of the future looks
futuristic and is entirely
made of plastic!
-1957-
Watch the video on YouTube

46. ...the interior however is
designed to feel familiar, with a
“normal” looking piano and
dining room...
-1957-
Watch the video on YouTube

47. The recurring selling point
however is plastic. There are
plastic countertops,
(motorised) plastics shelves
and a “luxurious” set of plastic
cups, plates and dishes.
(Monsanto’s involvement obviously had
something to do with this, but plastic was also
the modern substance of the day).
-1957-
Watch the video on YouTube

48. In the bedroom “the lady of the
house” has her own private
plastic boudoir. On the
counter is a speaker phone,
complete with ultra modern
push buttons instead of a
rotary dial.
(Note how lovingly the wife stares at the phone
while speaking to her husband. On the one hand
it’s charming that multitasking as you speak
wasn't yet socially acceptable but it also kind of
sad that 50 years later, we still spend a lot of time
staring at our phones.)
-1957-
Watch the video on YouTube

49. The man of the house has the
pleasure of shaving in his ultra
modern bathroom—fashioned
out of one giant piece of pre-
moulded plastic.
There’s also a “built-in” razor.
(The razor is corded and hardwired to the wall :-)
-1957-
Watch the video on YouTube

50. The future of shopping:
as imagined in 1969

51. The lady of the
house browses a
selection of
tempting offers via
video display.
-1969-
Watch the video on YouTube

52. Push-buttons and
dials are used to
control what
appears on the
display...
-1969-
Watch the video on YouTube

53. She then uses
another device to
key in her choice
of purchase.
(It was hard to imagine at that
point that devices might just
“talk” to each other).
-1969-
Watch the video on YouTube

54. (To prevent social
embarrassment...)
the husband
receives an
itemised list of his
wife’s purchases.
-1969-
Watch the video on YouTube

55. ...which he
carefully inspects...
-1969-
Watch the video on YouTube

56. Watch the video on YouTube
...he then prints a
copy of the order
and uses a touch
screen and stylus
to sign in approval.
-1969-

57. but mixing old and new isn’t all bad...

58. http://www.flickr.com/photos/davilla/3363343340
sometimes it may be
exactly what we need

59. The “old” brings with it
familiar metaphors...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mujitra/6778948371

60. ...and provides a common
conceptual framework.
familiar gesture
says “I get how
to use this...”

61. ...transforming something alien into something that feels magical,
yet familiar enough that you can see yourself using it.
so many wires...run away! almost like shopping at Nike :-)
Courtesy Makerbot Industries Blog and on Flickr

62. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
“Successful products are precisely those that don’t
attempt to move user experiences significantly,
even if the underlying technology has radically shifted.
In fact the whole point of user experience design is to
manufacture the necessary normalcy for a product to
succeed...” - Greg Borenstein

63. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/302869583
some ideas never quite make it
it’s maybe not surprising that
with nothing familiar to hold on to

64. only go so far...
but metaphor and familiarity

65. Golly gee...with a
contraption like this,
my wife could spend the
whole day shopping! Good
thing I still have to approve
all those purchases!
features to (implicitly) alleviate social angst
many new technologies require

66. In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp. released the first clamshell style laptop.
The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8,150, yet that’s not why it failed to catch on...
Source: Wikipedia

67. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
“It was designed for business executives. And...one of the
biggest obstacles, we had for selling the product was the
fact—believe it or not—that it had a keyboard.
Business people, who were in their 40s and 50s, didn’t have
a computer or keyboard in their offices. It was associated
with being part of the secretarial pool. And so you'd put
this thing in their office and they'd say, "Get that out of
here." It was like getting a demotion. They were really
uncomfortable with it.”
– Jeff Hawkins speaking at the Computer History Museum

68. in three ways to cause social angst...
a technology must have the potential to impact us
according to anthropologist Genevieve Bell
(or as she calls it “moral panic”
Women and children first : technology and moral panic

69. http://www.flickr.com/photos/faceme/2882556082
it has to change
our relationship to time...

70. it has to change
our relationship to space...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/shokai/4678255766

71. http://www.flickr.com/photos/misbehave/2352753067
...and change our relationship
to other people

72. ...changes in our relationship to time and space
don’t come along nearly as often as they used to....

73. the phonograph
to hear the voices of the dead...
suddenly made it possible
http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252

74. http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252Train wreck at Montparnasse, 1895, Wikipedia
the advent of the railway
caused intense fear of death...“...it is really flying, and it is impossible to divest yourself
of the notion of instant death...“
– The Railway Journey: The Industrialization of Time and Space in the 19th Century
(above and beyond that caused by horrific accidents)

75. ...it also caused what the Lancet medical journal
then termed “nervous fatigue”...

76. http://www.flickr.com/photos/svensson/601272668“...even the elementary concepts of
space and time have begun to vacillate. Space is
killed by the railways, and we are left with time alone.“
– German-Jewish poet Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)

77. shifting time and space may now seem
somewhat mundane...

78. ...but changes in our
relationships with people
will likely cause angst for
many years to come

79. ...so what can the past teach us about
designing for the future?

80. as if it will arrive, fully formed on
we often talk about the future
Public domain: Space colony art from the 1970s
our doorstep one fine morning

81. ...and the stories we tell
the old all jumbled up
but the future is already here...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/milo_riano/4336541309
with the new...
contactless Octopus
smart card
city-wide wi-fi
smart grid and
environmental monitoring
residential smart
card entry
old, organically formed
neighbourhoods
paper map from
the hotel
4G already
overtaking 3G

82. http://www.flickr.com/photos/preetamrai/5438199316
will be defined not merely by the
the success of the products we design
technologies we invent...

83. choose to welcome them...
but by the cultures that
Rate of acceleration/deceleration of technology adoption by country
Research by Intel measures the rate at which technology adoption exceeds (or falls
below) expectations for the country’s level of GDP. Rates have been averaged across
three technologies: mobile phones, PC’s, and internet users.

84. a technology that now gathers dust in
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
which brings us back to the humble fax machine...
all but one “modern” culture

85. ...Japan

86. use of seals instead of
signatures for official
transactions
warmth & personality
instant visibility
culture of
handwritten documents
tech literacy: 1/5 of the
population is over 65
http://www.flickr.com/photos/kankan/55026589
in Japan, fax machines still thrive
in the home and at work
Source: Japan and the fax: a love affair

87. But culture isn’t just about them...
(these people we call “users”)

88. Anthropologist Clifford Geertz once
defined culture as “...the stories we
tell ourselves about ourselves. “
http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/

89. http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
The more technology surrounds us,
the more all of us will play a part in
defining these stories...

90. http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
...the future will not just be defined
by the next big invention—it will be
also be defined by our ability to
dream beyond existing ones.

91. http://www.flickr.com/photos/keepwaddling1/3048726936/
...innovation is not about doing something
new out of thin air. It is about forgetting
that what you are doing is old.
“
- Dawn Nafus, anthropologist

92. http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinou/453593446
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many thanks to the
amazing photographers on
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