Identifying the Drivers of Conflict in a Transboundary River Basin: The Case of Ganges River

Identifying the Drivers of Conflict in a Transboundary River Basin: The Case of the Ganges River

1. Identifying the Drivers of Conflict in a Transboundary River Basin: The Case of Ganges River SAJID KARIM, BANGLADESH Young Water Diplomat Program ‹#›

2. Scope of the Presentation The Gagnes River Basin: At a glance Understanding Conflict and Cooperation in a Transboundary River Identifying the Drivers of Conflict The Way Forward ‹#›

3. The Ganges River Basin As % of total area of the basin As % of total area of the country BD 4 % 32 % IND 79 % 26 % NPL 14 % 100 % CHN 3 % 0.3 %

4. Expiry of current Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 2026 1975 Operation of the barrage began 1977 Signing of First Ganges Water Sharing Agreement 1961 Construction of the barrage started 1951 India decided to build the Farakka Barrage 1982 1985 1996 MoU MoU Signing of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty India and Bangladesh in the Ganges Basin ‹#›

5. 1954 Kosi Agreement 1920 Sarada Agreement 1959 1996 Gandak Agreement Mahakhali Treaty India and Nepal in the Ganges Basin On Discussion Pancheswar project (5,600 MW) Saptakoshi (3,330 MW) Karnali (10,800 MW) Naumure (225 MW) PDA Signed 900 MW Upper Karnali 900 MW Arun-3 PDA in the pipeline 600 MW Upper Marsyangdi 750 MW West Seti 880 MW Tamakosi III ‹#›

6. Understanding Conflict and Cooperation in a Transboundary River ‹#›

7. Definition: Transboundary water conflict can be defined as verbal, economic or military hostile actions between stakeholders over internationally shared water resources. (Pertersen-Perlman et al., 2017) Water Conflict Local Level Inter-state Level Intra-state Level ‹#›

8. Definition: Transboundary water cooperation is a process by which states take collaborative efforts to utilize a basin’s resources in an efficient, equitable and sustainable way to achieve a common interest that produces mutual benefits, which would otherwise not be available with unilateral action.” Zartman (2008); McCraken (2017) Water Cooperation Indicators for a Cooperative Arrangements Existence of a formal agreement Existence of a river basin commission or organization Engagement of ministerial level in cooperative meetings Collaboration in joint technical projects ‹#›

9. Drivers of Conflict Hydrological Political Economic Environmental ‹#›

10. Hydrological Drivers of Conflict High hydrological and climatic variability Mismatch between water demand and supply Volumetric allocation of water Unilateral/Unsustainable human interventions Degradation of water quality Unequal distribution of water resources ‹#›

11. Economic Drivers of Conflict High level of water commitment Inter-sectoral water competition Different dependence on water Changing pattern of land use Scarcity of physically controllable resources (fresh-water, arable land, etc.) ‹#› Nexus Food Energy Environment Water

12. Political Drivers of Conflict Upstream-downstream dynamics Asymmetric power distribution and the presence of a hydro-hegemon Domestic political dynamics Perception of national interest and national security and securitization of water Absence of multilateral and regional arrangements ‹#›

13. Environmental Drivers of Conflict Absence of eco-centric and bio-centric approach Adverse impact of climate change ‹#›

14. The Way Forward Change in Policy Outlook and Decision-Making Process Development of Institutional Arrangement Promotion of Benefit-sharing ‹#› “There is still enough water for all of us—but only so long as we keep it clean, use it more wisely, and share it fairly” Ban Ki-moon, Former UN Secretary General

15. Selected References Earle, A., Cascão, A., Hansson, S., Jägerskog, A., Swain, A. and Öjendal, J. (2015).  Transboundary Water Management and the Climate Change Debate . London and New York: Routledge. FAO. (2011). AQUASTAT Transboundary River Basins – Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basin . Rome: FAO. McCracken, M. (2017).  Measuring transboundary water Cooperation: Options for Sustainable Development Goal Target 6.5 . The background Papers. Stockholm: Global Water Partnership (GWP). Mukherjee, A., Bhanja, S. & Wada, Y. (2018). Groundwater Depletion Causing Reduction of Baseflow Triggering Ganges River Summer Drying.  Scientific Reports , vol. 8(1). Pandey, A., Prakash, A., Barua, A., Abu Syed, M. and Nepal, S. (2020). Upstream-downstream linkages in Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin: the hydro-social imperatives.  Water Policy , 22(6), pp.1082-1097. Pandey, P. (2016).  India Bangladesh Domestic Politics: The River Ganges Water Issues . Singapore: Springer. Rahman, K., Islam, Z., Navera, U. & Ludwig, F. (2019). A Critical Review of the Ganges Water Sharing Arrangement.  Water Policy , vol. 21(2), pp. 259–276. Rahman, M. and Rahaman, M. (2017). Impacts of Farakka Barrage on Hydrological Flow of Ganges River and Environment in Bangladesh.  Sustainable Water Resources Management , 4(4), pp. 767–780. Yoffe, S., Wolf, A. and Giordano, M. (2003). Conflict and Cooperation Over International Freshwater Resources: Indicators of Basins at Risk.  Journal of the American Water Resources Association , (October). Zartman, I. W. (2008). Concept: Cooperation. PIN Points , 30, pp. 5–7. Zeitoun, M. & Mirumachi, N. (2008). Transboundary Water Interaction I: Reconsidering Conflict and Cooperation. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics , vol. 8 (4), pp. 297-316. ‹#›