Impact and effect of climate change on agriculture

Impact and effect of climate change on agriculture

1. \ 1 Welcome

2. IMPACT AND EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE 2

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4. INTRODUCTION 4

5. Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area It is measured by assessing the patterns of variation in temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, precipitation and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time Climate is different from weather. weather only describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a given region 5

6. “ A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity .” -IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change) “ A change that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” -UNFCCC ( The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) 6

7. Climate change will have less effects for a few developed countries for moderate amounts of warming Climate Costs of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5–1 per cent of world GDP 2°C rise in global temperatures may lead to a 20 per cent reduction in water availability and crop yields in Southern Europe 7 In USA GDP declines by 1 per cent when global temperatures exceed by 3°C

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9. Poor and developing countries are mostly affected by climate change In developing countries like India, climate change is an additional burden because ecological and socioeconomic systems are already facing pressures from rapid population industrialization and economic development Developing countries will be particularly badly hit for the reasons: – 9 - Stronger dependence on agriculture – Resource scarcity: Fewer resources associated with greater vulnerability

10. 10 Source : www.climateeye.com , 2014

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12. Greenhouse Gases Deforestation Land use change Energy usage vehicular usage Climate change 12

13. Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture have increased by approximately 17 per cent since 1990. CO2 is the most important anthropogenic GHG as it constitutes about 70 per cent of the total emissions. The per-capita emission of an Indian citizen is 1.2 tonnes of Carbon dioxide where as in US with 20.6 tonnes. The green house gases have a drastic effect on temperature , human health , biodiversity loss etc. 13

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15. National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) estimates that 68% of the forest areas in India are likely to experience shift in forest types by the end of the 21st century, which needs our immediate attention 15

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17. Source: IPCC 2013 17

18. Contribution of different sectors in India to climate change (through greenhouse gas emissions in India) Fossil fuel used in agriculture considered in energy sector Source: IPCC 2013 18

19. Source: IPCC 2013 19

20. Impact of climate change on different sectors 20

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22. Rise in temperatures likely to affect crops differently from region to region India is a predominantly agriculture-oriented economy, as around 50 per cent of the population directly depends on agriculture either as farmers or agricultural laborers Food production in India is sensitive to climate change like variations in temperature and monsoon It is predicted that a loss of 10 to 40 per cent in production may occur by 2100 in India due to climate change (NAPCC) 22

23. 23 Mean temperature trend in India ( in o C ) Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

24. 24 Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

25. Effect of climate change on agriculture 25

26. 26 Years Cropped area affected (in lakh ha) % Change over Previous year 2001 18.72 - 2002 21 10.85 2003 31.98 34.33 2004 32.53 1.69 2005 35.52 8.41 2006 70.87 49.88 2007 85.13 16.75 2008 35.56 -139.39 2009 47.13 24.54 2010 46.25 -1.90 2011 52.01 11.07 2012 50.36 -3.27 Cropped area affected due to climate change in India Source :Statistics related to climate change -India, 2013

27. 27 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and rice in India Wheat production Rice yield Aggarwal et al,2002

28. 28 Effects of Temperature on selected Crops in India Rao et al, 2008

29. 29 Impact of climate change on other potential sectors of agriculture On soil Surface runoff Acidification Water logging Biological degradation On water Evaporation loss Decline in water quality Melting of glacial ice Shrinking of water bodies

30. 30 Impact of climate change on other potential sectors of agriculture On livestock Feed Grain & Forage Quantity & Quality Decrease Production Cost Increase 2 . Animal Heat & Humidity Stress Reduces growth, reproduction, production (meat, dairy, eggs) 3 . Disease & Pests Frequency, intensity, distribution is abundance . On fisheries Increase in temperature affect breeding, migration and harvests of fishes. Affect the capture, production and marketing costs of the marine fish.

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32. Sector   Adaptation option/strategy   Agriculture  Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety; crop relocation; Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties, improved land management, e.g. erosion control and soil protection through tree planting, afforestation Water  Expanded rainwater harvesting; water storage and conservation techniques; water re-use; improving existing irrigation systems (Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching); livestock Improved livestock management (Providing housing and shade, change to heat-tolerant breeds, altered grazing and rotation of pasture) 32

33. Mitigation of climate change Improving organic matter management Methane emission from ruminants can be reduced by altering the feed composition Efficient management practice to reduce N 2 O emission is site-specific nutrient management. Mitigating methane emission from rice cultivation. Application of plant-derived organics such as neem oil and neem cake which can also act as nitrification inhibitors 33

34. How to cut down emissions? 34 The British Petroleum suggests different options to cut down the emission of CO 2 by 110 million tonnes .

35. Research Studies 35

36. 1. Farmers awareness of climate change and their adaptations 36 Ravindra 2012

37. Methodology Locale of study : Bijapur Simple random sampling technique Sample size : 150 37

38. Table 1. Awareness of farmers about changes in the precipitation Sl. No. Statements Farmers response Aware Not aware Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage 1. Increase in frost occurrence increases the scope of pests and diseases 75 50.00 75 50.00 2. Late onset of rains results in delayed farm operations and difficult to manage the crops 56 37.33 94 62.66 3. Heavy rainfall destroys irrigation water supply system 24 16.00 126 84.00 4. Heavy rainfall, drought and frost situation results in abnormal growth of crops 24 16.00 126 84.00 5. Low market price for poor quality of produce results due to unfavorable rainfall situation 14 9.33 136 90.66 6. Now a days there is change in the rainfall during crop growth period 15 10.00 135 90.00 38 n=150

39. Table 1a. Overall awareness of farmers about changes in precipitation Categories Frequency Percentage Low (<9.57) 54 36 Medium (9.57-11.02) 36 24 High (>11.02) 60 40 Mean=10.29 SD=1.71 39 n=150

40. Table 2. Awareness of farmers about changes in temperature Sl. No. Statements Aware Not aware Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage 1. Now a days there is rise in both day and night temperature 64 42.66 86 57.35 2. Rise in temperature results in large scale migration and exodus of people and animals 35 23.33 115 76.67 3. Summer/winter is getting warmer 43 28.66 107 71.34 4. High temperature and relative humidity results in poor quality of the produce 35 23.33 115 76.67 40 n=150

41. Table 3. Distribution of farmers according to changes in temperature Sl. No. Categories Frequency Percentage 1. Low awareness (<5.99) 49 32.66 2. Medium awareness (5.99-7.14) 14 9.33 3. High awareness (>7.14) 87 58.00 4. Mean=6.57 SD= 1.35 41 n=150

42. Table 4. Awareness of farmers about impact of climate change in agriculture Sl. No. Awareness statements on impact of climate change Aware Not aware Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage 1. Stronger wind and heavy rainfall increases soil erosion 65 43.33 85 56.67 2. As a result of climate change, there increase in operational cost due to increased expenditure on inputs 46 30.66 104 69.34 3. Strong wind and storms result in heavy lodging and uprooting of crops 46 30.66 104 69.34 4. High rainfall and relative humidity results in increased insect problems 25 16.66 125 83.34 5. Income from agriculture is adversely affected due to climate change 21 14.00 129 86.00 42 n=150

43. Table 5. Overall impact of climate change on agriculture Awareness category Frequency Percentage Low (<7.17) 53 35.33 Medium (7.17-9.26) 24 16.00 High (>9.26) 73 48.66 Mean=8.21 SD=2.46 43 n=150

44. 2. Perspectives of farmers on effect of climate change on agriculture and livestock 44 Gajendra 2011

45. Methodology Locale of study : Bijapur Simple random sampling technique Sample size is 150 45

46. Table 1. Distribution of the respondents according to their perceived effects of climate change on agriculture in the last 2 decades Sl. No. Farming practices Effect of climate change Percent variation Negative f (%) No effect f (%) 1 . Soil fertility 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 21.90 2. Crops grown 145 (96.67) 05 (03.33) 39.68 3. Cropping pattern 138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 32.00 4. Variety selection 80 (53.33) 70 (46.67) 90.00 5. Land preparation 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 46.34 6. Sowing time 128 (85.33) 22 (14.67) 30.50 46 (n=150)

47. Contd … Sl. No. Farming practices Effect of climate change Percent variation Negative f (%) No effect f (%) 8. Seed rate 02 (01.33) 148 (98.67) --- 9. Seed treatment 28 (18.67) 122 (81.33) --- 10. FYM application 22 (14.67) 128 (85.33) --- 11. Use of chemical fertilizer 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 22.98 12. Time of application of chemical fertilizers 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 30.42 13. Intercultural operations 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 31.42 14. Intensity of weeds 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 48.05 15. Insect, pest infestation 138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 21.00 16. Disease infestation 135 (90.00) 15 (10.00) 09.50 17. Pesticide use 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 09.50 47

48. Contd … Sl. No. Farming practices Effect of climate change Percent variation Negative f (%) No effect f (%) 19. Harvesting 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 24.73 20. Grain yield quantity 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 30.35 21. Grain yield quality 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 29.13 22. Straw yield obtained 132 (88.00) 18 (12.00) 26.00 23. Storage duration 100 (66.67) 50 (33.33) --- 24. Market price 70 (46.67) 80 (53.33) 35.28 25. Overall health of the crop 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 35.25 26. Shelf life of crop 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 15.33 27. Storage pests and diseases 105 (70.00) 45 (30.00) --- 28. Taste of the produce 117 (78.00) 33 (22.00) 23.33 48

49. Table 2. Distribution of the respondents according to their perceived effects of climate change on livestock in the last 2 decades Subject Effect of climate change Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation Type of livestock reared 00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 47.10 Number of livestock reared 00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (6.67) 45.12 Purpose of rearing livestock (milk, FYM, both, meat) 00 (00.00) 134 (89.33) 16 (10.67) 14.26 Number of diseases to the livestock 00 (00.00) 75 (50.00) 75 (50.00) 25.62 Extent of milk yield 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 14.95 Strength of bullocks 00 (00.00) 98 (65.33) 52 (34.67) 23.11 Method of rearing livestock 00 (00.00) 120 (80.00) 30 (20.00) 39.00 Price of the milk 144 (96.00) 00 06 (04.00) 71.14 49 (n=150)

50. Contd … Subject Effect of climate change Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation Cost of rearing 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 72.95 Cost of feeds 00 (00.00) 144 (96.00) 06 (04.00) 73.00 Fodder availability from common lands 00 (00.00) 116 (77.33) 34 (22.67) 25.71 Fodder utilization from common lands 00 (00.00) 117 (78.00) 33 (22.00) 26.06 Quality of fodder from common lands 00 (00.00) 76 (50.67) 74 (49.33) --- Availability of green fodder 00 (00.00) 108 (72.00) 42 (28.00) 25.90 Utilization of green fodder 00 (00.00) 111 (74.00) 39 (26.00) 27.73 50

51. Contd … Subject Effect of climate change Positive f (%) Negative f (%) No effect f (%) Per cent variation Availability of dry fodder 00 (00.00) 138 (92.00) 12 (08.00) 32.55 Utilization of dry fodder 00 (00.00) 129 (86.00) 21 (14.00) 34.04 Quality of dry fodder 00 (00.00) 125 (83.33) 25 (16.67) 32.75 Availability of concentrate feeds 00 (00.00) 141 (94.00) 09 (06.00) 21.30 Utilization of concentrate feeds 00 (00.00) 140 (93.33) 10 (06.67) 23.05 Quality of concentrate feeds 00 (00.00) 129 (86.00) 21 (14.00) 24.05 Hours of stall feeding 00 (00.00) 147 (98.00) 03 (02.00) 22.32 Hours of grazing 00 (00.00) 150 (100.00) 00 (00.00) 42.00 51

52. 52 3 .Impact of climate change on rain fed agriculture in India : A case study of Dharwad Asha latha et al. 2012

53. 53 Methodology : Locale of study : Dharwad Multi stage random sampling design used . Sample size is 250.

54. 54 Table 1.Growth and instability in the yields of major rainfed crops Crop Compound Growth rate (per cent) Instability Index Sorghum -17.47 0.83 Maize -6.00 0.56 Tur -8.44 0.58 Groundnut -13.06 0.61 Wheat -16.00 0.70 Onion -3.93 0.53 Cotton -10.65 0.79

55. 55 Table2.Effect of drought on rain fed crop yield in Dharwad District Crop Percent of loss of normal yield (kg /ha ) Sorghum 43.03 Maize 14.09 Tur 28.23 Groundnut 34.09 Wheat 48.68 Onion 29.56 Cotton 59.96

56. 56 Table 3. Major coping mechanism adopted by rain fed farmers to mitigate the impact of climate change Coping mechanism Small farmers Medium farmers Large farmers Total farmers(%) Technological mitigation Change in cropping pattern 60.00 40.00 26.67 42.22 Mixed /inter cropping 93.33 76.67 56.67 75.56 Cultivating tree crops 0.00 10.00 76.67 28.89 Soil organic matter enhancement 46.67 46.67 16.67 36.67 Drought resistant 13.33 43.33 20.00 25.56 Integrated /mixed farming system 93.33 76.67 43.33 71.11 Socio-economic factors Reduced consumption expenditure 60.00 50.00 0.00 36.67 Shifting to other profession 80.00 50.00 20.00 50.00 Borrowing 86.67 50.00 10.00 48.89 Crop insurance 6.67 16.67 10.00 11.11 Selling of land and livestock 26.67 6.67 3.33 12.22 No response 6.67 23.33 23.33 17.78 (n=250)

57. 57 4.Farmers ’ Response and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Mafeteng District, Lesotho Sekaleli and Sebusi (2013)

58. 58 Methodology : Locale of study : Mafeteng district, Lesotho Stratified sampling method . Sample size is 120.

59. 59 Fig1. Impacts of Climate Change as Reported by Farmers in Kolo and Ts’akholo 23% 40% 17% 16% 4% Poor crop quality

60. 60 Fig 2. Emerging practices and adaptation strategies at Kolo and Ts’akholo

61. 61 Keyhole garden and trench garden

62. CONCLUSION 62