Indian retail industry

An overview on Indian retail industry. Included information like evolution of retail in India, retail formats in India, key players, competitive landscape, key strategies, industry growth, etc.

1. Indian Retail Industry

2. Analyst View Introduction In recent years, Indian Retail industry has emerged as one of the most fast-paced industry. Currently, it accounts for over 10 percent of GDP and also employs around 8 percent of the population. From Retail industry perspective, India is the fifth-largest global destination . Market Size According to the BCG report, India is expected to reach the market size of $1.3 trillion by 2020 from $600 billion in 2015. The report also suggest that overall retail market is expected to 12% per annum. Modern trade will expand at 20 percent while traditional trade at 10 percent per annum. In 2014, retail spending of India’s top 7 cities amounted to $53.7 billion and organized retail penetration was at 19 percent. By 2019, online retail market size will be at par with physical stores market size. From ecommerce market perspective, India is expected to become fastest growing market mainly due to two reasons: investments and increase in number of internet users. Indian e-commerce sales are expected to reach $55 billion by 2018 from $14 billion in 2015. Further, India's e-commerce market is expected to reach $220 billion in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) and 530 million shoppers by 2025. India’s direct selling industry increased 6.5 percent in 2014-15 to $1.19 billion and is expected to reach a size of $3.55 billion by 2019-20, as per a joint report by India Direct Selling Association (IDSA) and PHD.

3. Analyst View Investment Scenario According to the DIPP, the Indian retail industry in the single-brand segment has received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows totaling US$ 344.9 million during April 2000–September 2015. There are many examples of heavy investments in Indian retail space. For e.g., IKEA has announced that they will open stores in Hyderabad and Mumbai; considering the business model of IKEA, they will have to invest heavily to open stores. Another good example would be of DataWind , they partnered with HomeShop18 to expand its retail footprint in the country. Under the partnership, HomeShop18 and DataWind would jointly launch special sales programs across broadcast, mobile and internet media to provide greater access to the latter’s tablet range . Government Initiatives The Ministry of Urban Development has come out with a Smart National Common Mobility Card (NCMC) model to enable seamless travel by metros and other transport systems across the country, as well as retail purchases. The Government of India has accepted the changes proposed by Rajya Sabha select committee to the bill introducing Goods and Services Tax (GST). Implementation of GST is expected to enable easier movement of goods across the country, thereby improving retail operations for pan-India retailers.

4. Analyst View The Government has approved a proposal to scrap the distinctions among different types of overseas investments by shifting to a single composite limit, which means portfolio investment up to 49 per cent will not require government approval nor will it have to comply with sectoral conditions as long as it does not result in a transfer of ownership and/or control of Indian entities to foreigners. As a result, foreign investments are expected to be increase, especially in the attractive retail sector . The Road Ahead One thing is for sure that ecommerce is the way forward mainly due to its expansion in the country. Because of ecommerce, customers have more choice of products at the lowest rates. In the current scenario, all the retailers should leverage the digital channels which would enable them to spend less money on real estate while reaching out to more customers in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Both organized and unorganized retail companies have to work together to ensure better prospects for the overall retail industry, while generating new benefits for their customers. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the industry is positive, supported by rising incomes, favorable demographics, entry of foreign players, and increasing urbanization. Also in the current scenario, company like Patanjali has changed entirely the sentiments of the people and the ways companies market their products. Companies will have to market their products more from Indianized perspective and sometimes they will have to admit that they may have made some mistakes in the past. For example, till recently many people in rural areas were using charcoal to brush their teeth and some companies have ridiculed that and now they are marketing the same product. Also MNCs will have to keep tab on Indian companies like Patanjali . Just give a thought that if Patanjali start exporting its products than what kind of scenario could get created. Also we cannot predict if tomorrow Patanjali decides to introduce some other Line of Business and again it will hurt the market share of MNCs .

5. Retail Industry market overview

6. Executive Summary CAGR: 23% Rising income and demand for quality products to boost consumer expenditure Consumer expenditure estimated to be $ 3.6 trillion by 2020 vis-à-vis $ 1.25 trillion in 2015 Indian retail one of the fastest growing markets in the world due to economic growth Retail market in India to reach $1.3 trillion by 2020 from $600 billion in 2015 India’s modern retail to be three times in next 5 years The modern retail market is expected to grow from $60 billion to $ 180 billion during FY15-FY20

7. Executive Summary CAGR: 16.9% Robust consumption, rural markets to augment FMCG market FMCG market expected to increase to $103.7 billion by 2020 from $ 47.3 billion in 2015 Increasing participation from foreign and private players to boost retail infrastructure Revenue generated from online retail is projected to grow to 70 billion by 2020 from $6 billion in 2015 Rising number of tier-2 and tier-3 cities to enhance supermarket space in the country Supermarkets to total 8,500 by 2016 from 500 in 2006

8. Advantage India Demand potential Healthy economic growth, changing demographic profile, increasing disposable incomes, changing consumer tastes and preferences are driving growth in the organized retail market in India Rapid urbanization with increasing purchasing power has led to growing demand Innovation in financing Collective efforts of financial houses and banks with retailers are enabling consumers to go for durable products with easy credit Increasing investments Foreign retailers are continuously entering the Indian market Cumulative FDI inflow in retail for September 2015 was $344.93 million ; this is expected to increase when 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail is approved , and the limit in single-brand retail is raised to 100 per cent Policy support About 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail FDI of up to 100 per cent in single-brand retail and for cash and carry ( wholesale) trading and exports Introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) as a single unified tax system from next fiscal year 2015 Market Value: $600 Billion 2020E Market Value: $1.3 Trillion

9. Evolution of Retail in India Pre 1990s Manufacturers opened their own outlets Initiation 1990-2005 Pure-play retailers realized the potential of the market Most of them in apparel segment Conceptualization 2005-2010 Substantial investment commitments by large Indian corporate Entry in food and general merchandise category Pan-India expansion to top 100 cities Repositioning by existing players Expansion 2010 Onward Cumulative FDI inflow from April 2000 to September 2015 reached $ 344.93 million Retail 2020: Retrospect, Reinvent, Rewrite. Movement to smaller cities and rural areas More than 5–6 players with revenues over $1 trillion by 2020 Large-scale entry of international brands FDI in single-brand retail up to 100 per cent from 51 per cent Approval of FDI limit in multi-brand retail up to 51 per cent Rise in private label brands by retail players Sourcing and investment rules for supermarkets were relaxed E-commerce has emerged as one of the major segments Consolidation

10. Retail Formats in India Mono/exclusive branded retail shops Multi-branded retail shops Convergence retail outlets E-retailers Exclusive showrooms owned or franchised out by a manufacturer Focus on particular product categories and carry most of the brands available Display most of convergence as well as consumer / electronic products , including communication and IT group It is an online shopping facility for buying and selling products and services ; the facility is widely used for electronics, health and wellness Complete range available for a given brand, certified product quality Customers have more choices as many brands are on display One-stop shop for customers; many product lines of different brands on display Highly convenient as it provides 24X7 access, saves time, and ensures secure transaction

11. Key Players in Indian Retail Market Retail Grocery Food & Beverage Department Stores Pharmacy Books, Music & Gifts

12. Competitive Landscape Retail Departmental Stores Hypermarkets Supermarkets/Convenience Stores Specialty Stores Books, Music & Gifts Pantaloon has 104 stores Westside operates 86 stores Shoppers Stop has 66 stores Reliance Retail launched Trends in this format and currently has nearly 100 stores across India Pantaloon Retail is the leader in this format, with 512 Big Bazaar stores and online franchisees HyperCITY ( 16 stores ), Trent , Spencer’s ( Spencer Hyper ), Aditya Birla Retail , and Reliance are other players Aditya Birla Retail ( 1735 stores) Spencer’s Daily ( 134 stores) Reliance Fresh ( 700 stores) REI 6Ten ( 350 stores ) Big Bazaar ( 512 franchisees stores ) Titan Industries is a large player , with 430 World of Titan , 174 Tanishq , and 336 Titan Eye+ shops Vijay Sales , Croma , and Ezone are into consumer electronics Landmark and Crossword focus on books and gifts Metro started the cash-and-carry model in India; the company operate 16 stores across Mumbai , Kolkata , Delhi , Punjab , Hyderabad and Bengaluru Reliance opened its first cash-and-carry store in September 2011 and plans to open 20 stores by the end of the fiscal

13. Key Strategies by Indian Retailers Multiple franchisee model Rural retailing Collaboration for back-end resource sharing Collaborative for international products Vertical Integration Increasing market reach Innovation in new retail formats Direct sourcing arrangements Focus on private labels

14. Key Strategies by Indian Retailers Strategies adopted by Indian Retailers for sales maximization Offering discounts Most retailers have advanced off-season sales from 15 days to a month with discounts of 20-70 per cent on certain products Higher discounts and other value-added services for members Lowering prices Certain retailers adopt ‘first price right’ approach. Retailers do not offer discounts under this strategy: they directly compete on the selling price by offering a best price without any Markdowns Offering value-added services Companies offer innovative value-added services, such as customer loyalty programs and happy hours on shopping deals Offers for senior citizens, contests for students, and lottery gains are now very common Leveraging partnerships To keep customers on shop floors for a longer time and increase conversions, retailers are now pitching to partner with manufacturers, service providers, financial companies, etc. to create a buzz around certain product categories Strong supply chain Critical components of supply chain planning applications help retailers to maintain profit margins Retailers develop innovative solutions for managing the supply chain problems Innovative solutions like performance management, frequent sales operation management, demand planning, inventory planning, production planning and lean systems can help retailers to get advantage over competitors

15. Strong distribution and logistics network It is imperative for a retailer to have a strong distribution and logistic network to succeed in this sector. Players follow a distribution network that suits them the best. For example, Shoppers Stop follows a “hub-and-spoke” model for its distribution network to increase efficiency and productivity Marketing innovation Companies are now adopting innovative marketing strategies for their business. For example, Shoppers Stop is the first Indian large-format retailer to have created an AUGMENTED REALITY (AR) set-up Focus Certain players in this sector are focused on a particular segment. For example, Future Retail (FRL) exclusively operates hypermarkets and home retailing businesses. FRL focuses on maintaining its competitive advantage and gaining benefits of scale through focusing on efficiency and productivity Omni-channel retailing Retailers are opting for many channel to maximize sales, provide convenience and for enhanced productivity. Omni-channel retailing is being adopted by many retailers in India. For example, Shoppers Stop is making efforts to be an Omni-channel retailer. Ezone has launched an online platform, which has led to increase in sales Changing the perception Retailers benefit if consumers perceive their store brands to have consistent and comparable quality and availability in relation to branded products. For this, retailers are providing more assortments for private level brands to compete with supplier's brand. New product development, aggressive retail mix and everyday low pricing strategy help to get edge over supplier's brand Key Strategies by Indian Retailers

16. Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Competitive Rivalry (High) Entry of foreign players in the market and e-retailers have intensified competition Customers’ low switching cost increases competition The Indian retail sector is highly fragmented, which increases Competition Threat of New Entrants (High) Entry as a retailer is quite simple. However, players need to establish strong distribution channels and achieve economies of scale to compete Substitute Products (Low) Threat of substitute products is low. However, customers may purchase products from a local store instead of purchasing from a retailer Bargaining Power of Suppliers (Low) Retailers have low switching costs, which make the supplier power low. Larger retailers can easily switch to different suppliers. Bargaining Power of Customers (High) The consumers are price sensitive, and have information about the product and its price Low switching cost gives customers high bargaining Power

17. Indian retail industry growth

18. Indian Retail Industry Growth The retail sector in India is emerging as one of the largest sectors in the economy. By 2015, the total market size is estimated to be around $600 billion, thereby registering a CAGR of 7.45 per cent since 2000. Retail industry is expected to grow to $1.3 trillion by 2020 , registering a CAGR of 9.7 per cent between 2000-2020.

19. Indian Retail Industry Growth In 2014, food & grocery accounted for nearly 69 per cent of total revenues in the retail sector, followed by apparel (8.0 per cent ) Demand for Western outfits and readymade garments has been growing at 40–45 per cent annually; apparel penetration is expected to increase to 30-35 per cent by 2015 In 2014, jewelry accounted for 6 per cent share in India retail sector and its share is expected to increase from 6 per cent to 8 per cent in FY20

20. Organized Retail in Nascent Stage Organized Retail Penetration (ORP) in India is low (8 per cent) compared with that in other countries, such as the US ( 85 per cent). This indicates strong growth potential for organized retail in India In 2019, it is estimated that organized retail penetration share would reach 13 percent and unorganized retail penetration would hold a major share of 87 percent. Demand drivers Rising income levels Increased urbanization Growing aspiration levels and appetite to experiment Credit availability Supply drivers New entrants Expansion plans of existing players Infrastructure augmentation Emergence of new categories Drivers of Organized Retail

21. Organized Retail in Nascent Stage The Indian retail market is in its nascent stage; unorganized players accounted for 92 per cent of the market during 2013 There are over 15 million mom-and-pop stores Between FY09-13, organized retail in India witnessed a CAGR of 19-20 per cent Organized retail is expected to account for 24 per cent of the overall retail market by 2020

22. Organized Retail - Growth Across Categories Organized retail penetration and key trends across categories Retail Category Category Share as a % of Total Market 2014-15 ORP (%) Approx. Gross Margin (%) Key Trends Food & beverage 69-70 2-3 3-14 Large market and low ORP presents robust opportunities Clothing & textile 11-13 17-20 35-50 High margins, increased preference for branded apparel Consumer durables 4-5 15-20 10-20 Wide range of price points and good-after sales service are key differentiators Home Décor & Furnishing 3 5-6 40-50 Housing boom and increasing aspiration levels are driving demand Beauty, personal care 8-11 6-10 20-40 Growth driven by new product launches, consumers’ aspirations and expansion plans of organized players Footwear 2 16-17 25-35 Lifestyle brands are increasing their product offerings and formats Others 3-4 9-30 10-15 Pharmacy retail, stationery retailers, etc

23. Growth Across Categories & Formats Online grocery market is in its nascent stage and in 2015, the online grocery market stood at $ 0.6 billion which shows that there is a lot of scope for improvement in the coming years for the online grocery market to grow. Growing e-commerce sector is augmenting the growth of online grocery market

24. Growth Across Categories & Formats India’s ‘grocery’ retail segment is the world’s most attractive. Apparels would be the largest retail segment, accounting for 22 per cent of total retail space by 2014–15. Grocery retailers recorded healthy growth during 2014 and is expected to become world’s third largest grocery market with an estimated revenue of USD 566bn by 2016.

25. Global Positioning of Indian Retail Market In 2015, deepest mall penetration has been witnessed by Delhi-NCR with 22.7msf, total 213 malls are operational in India. In August 2015, India’s second largest e-commerce firm Snapdeal raised USD500 million by Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba Group, Foxconn Technology Group and existing investor Softbank Group. India is among the highest in the world in terms of per capita retail store availability. India’s strong growth fundamentals , along with increased urbanization and consumerism, offer immense scope for retail expansion for foreign players. With the allowance of 100 per cent FDI in single brand retail investor sentiment will get further push. Rapid emergence of organized retail outlets, such as mega malls and hypermarkets, are augmenting the growth of organized retail in the country. Retailers have made dynamic changes in supply chain and logistics for competitive advantage and meeting consumer demands.

26. Sector’s Potential to Attract Investors India has occupied a remarkable position in global retail rankings ; the country has high market potential, low economic risk, and moderate political risk In market potential, India ranks eleventh (after United States , China, Canada, UK, Brazil, Germany , Austria and Mexico ) India’s net retail sales are quite significant among emerging and developed nations; the country is ranked third ( after China and Brazil) Overall, given its high growth potential, India compares favorably with global peers among foreign investors

27. Rising Prominence of Online Retail Online retail business is the next generation format which has high potential for growth in the near future. After conquering physical stores, retailers are now foraying into the domain of e-retailing E-commerce is expected to be the next major area for retail growth in India. The industry is projected to touch S100 billion by 2020 from $22 billion in 2015. With growth in the e-commerce industry, online retail is estimated to reach $ 70 billion by 2020 from $3 billion in 2014

28. Rising Prominence of Online Retail The key drivers of online retail are a young population aided by easier access to credit and payment options, increasing internet penetration and speed, 24-hour accessibility, and convenient and secured transactions Online retailers continue promotional prices in the market , offering a significant boost to e-retailing in consumer durable sector Options like cash-on-delivery and manufacturers’ warranty add fuel to this rage. Cash-on-delivery is the most preferred payment option with over 30 per cent of buyers opting for it in India The computer peripherals, cameras and mobiles, and lifestyle segments account for a majority of total purchases

29. Growth Value Proposition Demand Factors Supply Factors Higher brand consciousness Rising incomes and purchasing power Growing aspiration levels and appetite to experiment Credit availability Growing young population and working women Changing consumer preferences and growing urbanization Rapid real estate and infrastructure development Easy availability of credit Emergence of new categories Expansion plans of existing players Development of supply chain improving efficiency R&D, innovation and new product development Indian Retail Opportunity

30. Indian retail market tax structure and rules & Regulations

31. Growth Drivers in India Liberalization: FDI of up to 51 per cent allowed under the automatic route in select priority sectors FDI of up to 100 per cent allowed under the automatic route in Cash & Carry (wholesale) 1991 1997 FDI of up to 51 per cent allowed with prior government approval in single-brand retail 2006 Government proposed introducing FDI in multi-brand retail (2008); follows up in 2012 by approving a plan to raise the FDI limit to 51 per cent 2008 Government approved 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail and increased FDI limit to 100 per cent ( from 51 per cent) in single brand retail 2012 2015 With a view to improve the ease of doing business , the government has aligned the foreign direct investment policy with NIC code

32. Indian Retail FDI Policy Benefits of FDI in Indian Retail Increase in employment Infrastructure investment Removing middlemen Benefiting Indian manufacturers Technological advancement Sector Entry route FDI limit Wholesale cash and carry trading Single brand product retailing Multi-brand, front-end retail Foreign Investment & Promotion Board Foreign Investment & Promotion Board Automatic 100% 100% 100%

33. FDI Policy Details 51% FDI in multi-brand retail Status: Policy passed Minimum investment cap is $100 million 30 per cent procurement of manufactured or processed products must be from SMEs Minimum 50 per cent of total FDI must be invested in backend infrastructure (logistics, cold storage, soil testing labs, seed farming and agro-processing units) Removes middlemen and provides better price to farmers Development in retail supply chain system 50 per cent of jobs in retail outlet could be reserved for rural youth and a certain amount of farm produce could be required to be procured from poor farmers To ensure the Public Distribution System (PDS) and Food Security System (FSS), the government reserves the right to procure a certain amount of food grains Multi-brand retail would keep food and commodity prices under control Will cut agricultural waste as mega retailers would develop backend infrastructure Consumers will receive higher quality products at lower prices and with better service 100% FDI in single brand retail Status: Policy passed Products to be sold under the same brand internationally Sale of multi-brand goods is not allowed, even if produced by the same manufacturer For FDI above 51 per cent, 30 per cent sourcing must be from SMEs Consumerism of retail market Any additional product categories to be sold under single brand retail must first receive government approval

34. New GST – Simplified Tax Structure Supply chain structure Introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) as a unified tax regime would lead to a re-evaluation of procurement and distribution arrangements Removal of excise duty on products would result in cash flow improvements Pricing and profitability Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower input costs and improve profitability Application of tax at all points of supply chain is likely to require adjustments to profit margins, especially for distributors and retailers Cash flow Tax refunds on goods purchased for resale implies a significant reduction in the inventory cost of distribution Distributors are also expected to experience cash flow from collection of GST in their sales, before remitting it to the government at the end of the tax-filing period System changes and transition management Changes need to be made to accounting and IT systems in order to record transactions in line with GST requirements Appropriate measures need to be taken to ensure smooth transition to the GST regime through employee training, compliance under GST, customer education and inventory credit tracking

35. Major markets in indian retail industry

36. Customer Base in Major Markets Population 2001 ( mn ) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 17 15 6 68 Population 2011 ( mn ) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 21 22 8 86 Decadal growth between 2001 & 2011 MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 23.5% 47% 33% 26.5% Population 2015 (E) ( mn ) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 22 24 10 93 Top Urban Centers: MMR, NCR, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata

37. Market Size in Major Markets Total Consumption Expenditure 2015 ( Rs . Bn.) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 4,113 3,494 2,020 12,782 Per Capita Consumption Expenditure 2015 ( Rs .) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 188,745 138,335 212,444 137,758 Total Retail Expenditure 2015 ( Rs . Bn.) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 1,214 1,047 640 4,206 Per Capita Retail Expenditure 2015 ( Rs . Bn.) MMR NCR Bengaluru Top Urban Centers 164 269 154 801 Top Urban Centers: MMR, NCR, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata

38. Bengaluru - Insights % share of total population

39. Mumbai - Insights % share of total population

40. NCR - Insights % share of total population

41. Product Category-Level Analysis Apparel 2015 Bengaluru Mumbai NCR Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 28.8 39.3 48.0 Modern Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 5.5 14.8 45.1 Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 23.2 24.6 2.6 Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 41.4 106.3 77.9 Modern Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 14.0 33.3 61.9 Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 23.0 73.0 15.9 Overall Apparel: Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 46.2 97.6 18.6

42. Product Category-Level Analysis Food and Beverage 2015 Bengaluru Mumbai NCR Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 3.9 10.9 4.2 Modern Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 0.7 3.0 5.5 Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 3.2 7.9 *** Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 12.3 32.0 20.1 Modern Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 3.1 9.9 17.1 Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 9.1 22.2 2.9 Overall F&B: Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 34.0 69.5 35.2 Note: *** implies that the modern retail space in these zones has been generating more business than the total retail spending on the catchment population this product category

43. Product Category-Level Analysis Entertainment 2015 Bengaluru Mumbai NCR Total Entertainment Expenditure ( Rs . Bn.) 27.5 60.7 52.4 Market Size of Multiplex and FEC ( Rs . Bn.) 17.7 16.6 6.9 Daily Needs (Supermarkets/Hypermarkets) 2015 Bengaluru Mumbai NCR Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 274.7 607 523.7 Modern Retail Market Size ( Rs . Bn.) 31.6 18.7 11.3 Modern Retail Potential ( Rs . Bn.) 243.0 588 512.4

44. Thank You! Prepared by: Kartik Mahyavanshi Contact No. : [phone] Email Id: [email protected]