International-Biofuels-Wang.ppt for engineering

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1. Biofuels Development
Status and Potentials in
Major Countries
Michael Wang
Center for Transportation Research
Argonne National Laboratory
Oct. 10, 2006

2. 2
A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is
To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced

3. 3
Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account
for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time
Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Bushels/lb. Fertilizer
?
Precision
farming, etc.?
U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer
Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years

4. 4
Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and
Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants
From Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, USDA data, and other reported data0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Btu/Gallon
Wet Mill Dry Mill
1980s
2000s

5. 50
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Cellulosic EthanolCorn EthanolGasoline
From Biomass
From Coal and Natural Gas
From Petroleum
The Type of Energy, As Well As the Amount of
Energy, Is important in Addressing Energy Effects of
Ethanol
Fossil Btu = 1.23
Btu required for 1 Btu available at fuel pump
Energy
in the
Fuel
Fossil Btu = 0.74
Petroleum Btu = 1.1
Petroleum Btu = 0.1
Fossil Btu < 0.1
Petroleum Btu = 0.1

6. 6
Most Recent Studies Show Positive Net
Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon)
Ho
Marland&Turhollow
Pim entel
Pim entel
Keeney&DeLuca
Lorenz&Morris
Shapouri et al.
Wang et al.
Agri. Canada
Kim &Dale
Graboski
Wang
Pim entel
Shapouri et al.
Pim entel
&Patzek
Weinblatt et al.
NR Canada
Cham bers et al.
Patzek
Delucchi
Kim &Dale
Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol

7. 7
Though Electricity Requires a Large Amount of
Fossil Energy Input, There Is No Substitute
Coal Mining
Coal
Transportation
NG
Processing
NG
Transmission
NG
Recovery
Coal
NG
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
NG
Diesel
Fuel
NG
Electricity
LPG,
NGLs
NG
Electricity
Electricity Generation
Electricity Transmission
and Distribution (8% loss)
1 mm Btu of Electricity
at Wall Outlets
Uranium Ore
Recovery
Petroleum
Recovery
Uranium
Petroleum
Uranium Ore
Transportation
Petroleum
Transportation
Other
Petroleum
Products
Residual Oil
Electricity
Diesel
Fuel
NG
Uranium
Enrichment
Petroleum
Refinery
Electricity
Refinery Gas
Coal
NG
Uranium Fuel
Transportation
Residual Oil
Transportation
Diesel Fuel
Residual Oil
Electricity
NG
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
NG
U.S. Electricity Generation:
2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input

8. 8
Energy in Different Fuels
Can Have Very Different Qualities
Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) =
energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.311.36
0.98
0.81
0.45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Cell. EtOHCorn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity

9. 9
The Role of Biofuels Is Affected by Land
Availability and Oil Use in Individual Countries
Country Land
Area,10
3
km
2
Population,
Million
Arable Land,
10
3
km
2
Arable Land
km
2
per 10
3
people
Oil Use, mil.
barrels a
day
USA 9,161 296 1,752 5.92 20.0
China 9,326 1,306 1,436 1.10 6.3
Japan 374 127 46 0.36 5.6
Germany 349 82 118 1.44 2.7
India 2,973 1,080 1,617 1.50 2.3
Canada 9,093 32 451 14.09 2.2
Brazil 8,457 186 588 3.16 2.1
France 545 60 183 3.05 2.1
The U.K. 241 60 57 0.95 1.7
Spain 499 40 130 3.25 1.5
Thailand 511 65 150 2.31 0.9
Australia 7,617 20 499 24.95 0.8
Pakistan 778 162 216 1.33 0.4
Sweden 410 9 27 3.00 0.4

10. 10
Intermediate Products Can Be Produced from
Various Feedstocks via Various Technologies

11. 11
Bio-Fuels Can Be Produced from Intermediate
Products with Various Technologies

12. 12
Feedstocks for Biofuel Production Vary
Among Countries
Grain starch to ethanol
–Corn in U.S., China, Canada
–Wheat in Europe, Australia, and Canada
Sugar crops to ethanol
–Sugarcane in Brazil, India, and Thailand
–Sugar beets in Europe
Cellulosic biomass to ethanol
–Managed biomass such as trees and grass
–Crop residues such as corn stover, wheat straw, rice straw, sugarcane
bagasse
–Forest wastes
–Municipal solid waste
Oilseed crops to biodiesel
–Soybeans in U.S.
–Rapeseeds in Europe
–Palm oil and other tropical oilseed crops in tropical countries
–Waste cooking oil
–Animal fats

13. 13
Low-level blends of ethanol/gasoline can be used in gasoline
vehicles without vehicle modifications
–E5 in Canada and Australia
–E3 in Japan
–E6-E10 in U.S.
–E10 in China and Thailand
–E25 in Brazil
Low-level and high-level blends of biodiesel/diesel can be
used in diesel vehicles without vehicle modifications
–B2-B20 in different countries
–B100 could be used
Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) for E0-E85 require vehicle
modifications
Liquid Biofuels Can Be Used in Vehicles
at Low-or High-Level Blends

14. 14
U.S. Corn Ethanol:
No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country
with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005

15. 15
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced
Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue
Source: Renewable Fuels Association0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Millions of gallons/Year
Actual Use
2005 Energy Bill
requirement

16. 16
A Large Number of E85 FFVs Are in U.S. Fleet
–Obtain fuel economy credits since 1993
–>5 million cars and trucks in use in 2005
–But they are powered virtually with gasoline2004 U.S. Fleet Alternative Fuels
Vehicles
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
LPG CNG LNG M85 E85
Fuel

17. 17
General Motors Corporation’s E85 FFV
Vehicle Production for U.S.
Approx. 1,500,000
E85 FFV Trucks
produced through
2005 MY
Forecast ProductionGM E85 FFV Vehicle Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Model Year
Volume in Thousands
TrucksCars
Approx. 1.5 Million E85 FFV Trucks
produced through 2005 MY
Forecasted E85 production includes
2.2 Million more cars and trucks
Approximately 3.7 Million E85 FFV Cars and Trucks produced through 2010 MY

18. 18
Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol:
No.2 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~4 Billion Gallons in 2005

19. 19
Brazil Is the Largest Sugarcane Producing
Country
Humid equatorial
Dry winter/humid summer tropical
Semi-arid tropical
Humid coastal
Humid subtropical

20. 20
Production costs in Brazil reached 100 US$/ton in 2005174
204
241 248
283 284
378
440
424
483
687
1400
Brazil
(CS)
AustraliaSouth
Africa
India Cuba ThailandFrance USA ChinaEngland ItalyJapan
Sugar Production Cost
Estimated Cost (US$/Ton in Dec/00)
Sugar Cane
Production
(Mt) 2002
22,7 5,4 2,
6
19,0 2,3 6,6 5,
1
7,3 10,3 1,5 1,5 0,
9
100
From Rainach (2006)
Brazil Has the Lowest Production Cost
for Sugar

21. 21
Brazil’s Low Sugar Production Cost Is
Due to a Combination of Factors
From Rainach (2006)
STRONG WEAK
WATER
BrazilAustraliaIndiaCuba
LIGHT -TEMPERATURE
USABLE LAND
LABOR COST
SCALE OF PRODUCTION
GENETICS
cost (US$/Ton)
AGRICULTURAL
TECHNOLOGY
100204248283

22. 22
Brazil Now Uses About 4 Billion Gallons
of Sugarcane Ethanol A Year

23. 23
Yield of EtOH/Ha Has Increased Three Times in the
Last 25 Years to 6,000 L/Ha (1,585 gal/Ha) 08 Nov 2005 Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos 11
Rendimento Agroindustrial –Brasil
(em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
1 97 5 1 97 7 1 97 9 1 98 1 1 98 3 1 98 5 1 98 7 1 98 9 1 99 1 1 99 3 1 99 5 1 99 7 1 99 9 2 00 1 2 00 3
Fonte: Datagro
+3,77% aaem29 anos
5931
2024
l/ha
From Rainach (2006)

24. 24
Ethanol Cost Has Been Reduced Greatly; It Is
Now Lower Than That of Gasoline
1
10
100
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Produção acumulada de etanol (milhares de m
3
)
(2004) US$ / GJ
Preço do etanol no Brasil Preço da gasolina em Rotterdam
1986
2004
2002
1999
1980
1990
1995
Goldenberg, 2005

25. 25
Flex (Ethanol orgasoline)Ethanol (Pure)Gasoline Diesel
In Brazil, 70% of All New Cars Sold
Now Are FFVs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
jan/03 abr/03 jul/03 out/03 jan/04 abr/04 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05
3%
26%
2%
69%

26. 26
Chinese Corn Ethanol:
No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005

27. 27
Four Fuel Ethanol Plants in China Produce 340
Million Gallons of EtOH a Year from Grains
Company Location Annual
Production in
tonnes
Jilin Fuel Ethanol Co., Ltd Jilin City, Jilin Province300,000
Heilongjiang China Resources
Corporation
Zhaodong City,
Heilongjiang Province
100,000
Henan Tianguan Group
Nanyang City, Henan
Provice
300,000
Anhui BBCA Biochemical
Bufeng City, Anhui
Province
320,000

28. 28
Supply of Grain-Based Ethanol in the U.S.
and China May Be Limited
U.S. China
Population (in million) 296 1306
Gasoline market: billion gallons140 16
Diesel market: billion gallons 50 24
Corn ethanol production: billion
gallon
4.2 0.3
Corn production: million tons 332 128
Arable land: million hectares 186 130

29. 29
U.S. Biodiesel Production

30. 30
U.S. Biodiesel Production Has Increased
Dramatically and Will Continue to Do So

31. 31
U.S. Biodiesel Plant Location

32. 32
Incentives and Policies Have Played a
Major Role in Biofuel Use
U.S.
–$0.51/gallon incentive for ethanol
–$1.00/gallon incentive for biodiesel
–The 2005 Energy Policy Act establishes renewable
fuel standards
Brazil
–In early years, government had financial incentives
–But sugarcane ethanol is now self-sustaining
economically
China
–Grain ethanol producers receive RMB 1,200/tonne
of ethanol

33. 33
Potential Adverse Effects of Large-
Scale Biofuel Production
Land availability in individual countries
Food vs. fuel debate
Potential soil effects: erosion, carbon depletion,
etc.
Water pollution by nitrate from intensive farming
Water resource requirements
Ecological effects of land cultivation for biofuel
production