IS-LM ANALYSIS
AND
AGGREGATE
DEMAND
DR. LAXMI NARAYAN
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS
GOVT. COLLEGE FOR WOMEN, BHODIA KHERA
Lecture Outline
Why IS-LM Analysis?
What IS-LM Analysis?
Equilibrium in Goods
Market
–IS curve
.
Equilibrium in Money
Market
–LM curve
.
Simultaneous Equilibrium
Deriving Aggregate Demand
Why IS-LM Analysis?
Both arguments were challenged because of
indeterminacy
as:
BRate of interest affects the level of GDP by its ef fect on Investment.
BLevel of GDP affects the rate of interest via deman d for money.
A rise in level of GDP as a result of investment is cut short
when rate of interest rise as a result of increase in GDP
Classical Economist:
Rate of
interest is a real phenomenon
determined by saving and
investment
Keynes:
rate of interest is
purely a monetary
phenomenon.
Why IS-LM Analysis?
Simultaneous determination
of
rate of interest
and
the
real GDP
and
alternate derivation of AD curve
is at the
core of IS-LM analysis.
Hicks and Hensen
integrated
both the
real parameters
of
savings and investment and
monetary parameters
of
supply and demand for money
through IS-LM analysis. This
is popularly Known as
Hicks-
HensenSynthesis.
What is IS-LM Analysis?
The term
IS
refers to the
equality
between
Investment(I)
&saving(S)
the corresponding
equilibrium
in the
Goods
Market.
The term
LM
refers to the
equality
between
demand for
money (L)&Supply of money (M)
and the corresponding
equilibrium in
Money Market.
IS Curve and Product
Market Equilibrium?
IS
curve is the
locus of different
combinations
of Interest Rate(r)
and Level of GDP (Y) that are
consistent with equality between
saving and Investment
or
Aggregate Output and Aggregate
Expenditure.
TheIScurverepresentsallcombinationsofincome
(Y)
and
the real interest rate
(r)
such that the market for goods and
services is in equilibrium. That is, every point on the IS
curveisanincome/realinterestratepair(
Y,r
)suchthatthe
demandforgoodsisequaltothesupplyofgoods.
IS curve is derived from using three
relationships:
oInvestment Demand Function. oChanges in the Aggregate
Expenditure as a result of change
in investment when r changes.
oRelationship between different level of ‘r’ and ‘GD P’ and the
equality between ‘S’ & ‘I’ that is IScurve.
Derivationof IS Curve
Derivation of IS Curve The derivation is based on the
following propositions.
An increase in
rate of
Interest
leads to a decrease
in the level of Investment
.
An decrease in the
level of investment
leads to a
decrease in the
level of income.
Therefore, an increase in the
rate of interest
leads to a
decrease in the
rate of interest
.
E
F
G
E
F
G
0
0
I
2atr
2
I
2
I
1
I
1atr
1
I
0
I
0 atr
0
S
S
E
F
G
0
r
0
r
1
r
2
Y
0
Y
2
Y
1
Y
0
Y
2
Y
1
Y
0
Y
2
Y
1
Income
Agg. Exp.
S & I Rate of Interest
AE
0(I
0, r
0)
Y=AE
AE
1(I
1, r
1) AE
2(I
2, r
2)
Income
Income
I = I
a
-br
,
b>0
Y=AE=
C(Y-T)+I(r)+G
Good Market
Equilibrium
SLOPE OF IS CURVE
The slope of the IS curve depends on:
.The sensitivity of investment (AE) to interest rate changes
.The value of multiplier
0
Rate of Interest
Real GDP(Y)
IS
1
IS
2
When ‘I’ is more
sensitive to ‘r’ and when
multiplier value is
high(high MPC)
When ‘I’ is less sensitive
to ‘r’ and when multiplier
impact is low(low MPC)
Factors that Shift the IS
Curve
A change in autonomous factors
that is unrelated to the interest rate
Changes in autonomous
consumer expenditure
Changes in planned investment spending unrelated to
the interest rate
Changes in government spending
Changes in taxes
Changes in net exports unrelated to the interest ra te
E
F
0
E
F
0
r
0
r
1
Y
0 Y
2
Y
0 Y
1
Income
Aggregate. Exp..
Rate of Interest
AE
0(r
0)
Y=AE
AE
1(r
1)
Income
A
1E
0(r
1)
F
1
E
1
E
1
A
0E
0(r
0)
Y
1
0 Y
1
0
Y
1
1
Y
1
1
F
1
Shifting of IS Curve
.Decrease in Govt. Exp.
.Decrease in Investment
.Increase in Taxes
.Increase in Consumer Exp.
.Decrease in Net Exports
IS
0
IS
1
LM Curve and Money
Market Equilibrium?
The LM curve shows
all the
combinations of interest rates i
and outputs Y
for which the
money market
is in
equilibrium.
"L" denotes Liquidity and "M"
denotes money,
TheLMcurve,isagraphofcombinationsofrealincome,Y,
andtherealinterestrate,r,suchthatthemoneymarketisin
equilibrium(i.e.realmoneysupply=realmoneydemand).
DEMAND FOR MONEY
Transaction Demand for Money(M
t)
M
t
= K(y) : 1>K>0
K = Proportion of income kept
is cash for transaction purpose
Speculative Demand for Money(Ms)
M
0
K
M
1
Y
0
Y
1
M
t
Y
M
1
Liquidity Trap
M
2
r
2
r
1
M
s
r
r
0
M
s
= L(r) : L`<0
O
O
Supply of Money
M
Rate of Interest
Supply of Money
M
S
Total Demand for money
M
D
= M
t
+ M
s
or
M
D
= K(y) + L(r)
M
0
M
1
Demandfor Money
Rate of Interest
r
1
M
D
(Y
D
)
Y
D
O
O
Supply and Demandfor Money
Rate of Interest
r
0
M
D
(Y
0
)
M
S
M/P
Demand for money
when income is Y
0
M
D
(Y
1
)
Demand for money
when income is Y
1
M
D
(Y
2
)
Demand for money
when income is Y
2
MONEY MARKET EQUILIBRIUM
r
1
r
2
E
E
1E
2
O
( , )
M P L r Y
=
Derivation of LM Curve The derivation is based on the
following propositions.
An increase in
the level of
income
leads to an increase
in the
demand for money
.
An increase in the
demand for money
leads to an
increase in the
rate of interest.
Therefore, an increase in the
level of income
leads to
an increase in the
rate of interest
.
Supply and Demandfor Money
Rate of Interest
r
0
M
D
(Y
0)
M
S
M
M
D
(Y
1)
M
D
(Y
2)
DERIVATION OF LM CURVE
r
1
r
2
E
E
1
E
2
O
Income(Y)
Rate of Interest
r
0r
1r
2
E
1
E
2
O
Y
0E
Y
1
Y
2
LM Curve
SLOPE OF LM CURVE
The slope of the LM curve depends on:
BThe sensitivity of money demand (M
D
)to interest rate changes
BThe sensitivity of money demand (M
D
)to changes in GDP
0
Rate of Interest
Real GDP(Y)
LM
1
LM
2
When ‘M
D
’ is more
sensitive to ‘Y’ and less
sensitive to ‘r’
When ‘M
D
’ is less
sensitive to ‘Y’ and
more sensitive to ‘r
Supply and Demandfor Money
Rate of Interest
M
D
(Y
0)
M
S
M
0
SHIFTING OF LM CURVE
r
0E
0
O
Income(Y)
Rate of Interest
r
0
E
0
O
Y
0
LM
0
M
S
M
1
E
1
r
1
r
1
E
1
LM
1
The intersection of the ISand LM curves represents
simultaneous
equilibrium in the market for goods and services an d in the
market for real money balances
for given values of government
spending, taxes, the money supply, and the price le vel.
Simultaneous Equilibrium in Product and Money Marke t
IS:
Y
r
LM:
r
0
Y
0
E
Goods Market Equilibrium.
Money Market Equilibrium .
( , )
M P L r Y
=
( ) ( )
Y C Y T I r G
= − + +
Excess Demand
for goods
r
Y
D
A
C
Y
CY
A
r
A
r
B
B
hAt A -Product Market is in
equilibrium.
At B we will have Excess Supply of goods
in the goods market.
↑↑↑↑r
→→→→
↓↓↓↓I
→→→→
↓↓↓↓AD
→→→→
↓↓↓↓Y
A
>
AD
B
(Excess Supply of goods).
Disequilibrium in Product Market
hAt point B,
Y=Y
A
,
but
r
B
>r
A
hSuppose r increases from
r
A
to r
B
.
So at a
Higher Interest Rate
(such as r
B
), the only way to
return back to equilibrium is to have
lower
Y (such as Y
C
).
IS
Income(Y)
r
C
C
O
Y
B
LM
0(P
0M
0)
r
AB
A
Y
A
D
Initially at A: M
D
= M
S
).
For the Money Market to return back to equilibrium we
need to
have an increasein r
so as to
decreaseM
d
back to the given M
S
level. And at this higher Y level (Y
B) r has to ↑to C (r
C) to ↓Md to
its old level so that M
d=M
Sagain.
r
Disequilibrium in Money Market
Suppose
Y Increases
from
Y
Ato Y
Band we move to B. At
B,
r = r
A
but Y increasesto Y
B.
Increase in Y
aincrease in
M
d
aM
d> M
S(Excess
Demand for money).
Disequilibrium in IS-LM
If disequilibrium is at the
right of LM curve
indicating
Excess Demand for Money in money market, only way t o
restore equilibrium is
to increase rate of interest(r)
.
Same way for points on the left of the LM, decreas e ‘r’
We can conclude:
If disequilibrium is at the
right of IS curve
indicating
Excess Supply in Goods
market, only way to restore
equilibrium is
to decrease Y
.
same way for point on the
left, increase Y.
Disequilibrium in IS-LM
IS
Y
r
LM
r
0
Y
0
E
≠Any point other than point E
is point of disequilibrium.
A
B
M
N
K
V
L
T
≠Point A&B
:
I=S
but
L≠ M
≠Point K:
L<M & S<I
≠Point M&N:
L=M
but
I≠ S
≠Point K:
L>M & S<I
≠Point V:
L>M & S>I
≠Point L:
L<M & S<I
How Equilibrium is re-established in IS-LM
IS
Y
r
LM
r
0
Y
0
E
A
When Disequilibrium is in only One Market
At point ‘A’ economy is in equilibrium
in product market and disequilibrium
in money market.
r
2
r
1
Y
2
Y
1At A, excess supply of money reduces r
0to r
1
Lower interest rates at r
1
, increases
investment which increases income to Y
1
Higher Income increase demand for money and interes t
rates till economy reaches at point E
How Equilibrium is re-established in IS-LM
IS
Y
r
LM
r
0
E
D
When Disequilibrium is in only One Market
At point ‘D’ economy is in equilibrium in money
market (L=M) and disequilibrium in Product Market.
r
1
Y
2
Y
0
As D lies right of IS curve, means supply
in good markets, that is S>I or AE<AS
Low demand in good market
reduces income from Y
o
This reduces money demand. Lower
demand for money reduces interest rates .
This process continues till equilibrium is resorted at point ‘E’
where both markets are in equilibrium
Shift in the IS and LM curve and Change
in Equilibrium
IS
0
Y
r
LM
r
0
Y
0
E
IS
Y
r
LM
Y
0
IS
1
IS
2
E
1
Y
1
E
2
r
1 r
2
Y
2
r
0
E
E
1
Y
1
E
2
r
1r
2
Y
2
LM
2
Derivation of AD Curve
IS
Y
r
Y
0
r
0
E
E
1 Y
1
E
2
r
1r
2
Y
2
Y
r
Y
0
P
0
Y
1
P
1
P
2
Y
2
LM
at P
0
LM
2 at P
2
A
B
At new equilibrium income Y
1
and price
P
1
, we have the point B.
Now if price increase to P
2
LM curve
shifts left and new equilibrium
corresponding to E2 will be C
C
AD curve
IS
Y
r
Y
0
r
0
E
E
1 Y
1
E
2
r
1r
2
Y
2
Y
r
Y
0
P
Y
1
Y
2
LM
LM
2
A C
B
P
AD
AD
1
AD
2
Derivation of AD Curve if LM
curve shift due to factors
other than price level
that is,
price level remain
constant
For example AD can be
increased by increasing
money supply:
↑↑↑↑
M⇒⇒⇒⇒
LMshifts right
⇒
↓↓↓↓
r
⇒
↑↑↑↑
I
⇒
↑↑↑↑
Yat each
value of P
IS
Y
r
Y
0
r
0
E
E
1 Y
1
E
2
r
1r
2
Y
2
Y
r
Y
0
P
Y
1
Y
2
LM
LM
2
A C
B
P
AD
AD
1
AD
2
Monetary Policy
and AD Curve
Expansionary Monetary Policy:
gShift LM curve right to LM
1.
gIncrease income to Y
1
gShift AD curve to AD
1
Contractionary Monetary Policy:
gShift LM curve Left to LM
2.
gDecreases income to Y
2
gShift AD curve to AD
2.
Y
r
Y
0
P
Y
1
Y
2
A C
B
P
AD
AD
1
AD
2
Fiscal Policy and
AD Curve
Expansionary Fiscal Policy:
gShift IS curve right to IS
1.
gIncrease income to Y
1
gShift AD curve to AD
1
Contractionary Fiscal Policy:
gShift IS curve Left to IS
2.
gDecreases income to Y
2
gShift AD curve to AD
2.
IS
0
Y
r
LM
r
0
Y
0
E
IS
1
IS
2
E
1
Y
1
E
2
r
1 r
2
Y
2
.Only a Comparative Static
Model.
.Ignores impact of
International Trade.
.Considers price level as
exogenous variable.
.Ignores time lags.
.Does not include labour market equilibrium in the
analysis.
.Ignores impact of future expectations .
Weaknesses of IS-LM Model
BExplain the determination of
GDP and rate of interest with
the help of IS-LM curve
Analysis.
BTrace the derivation of IS and
LM curves.
BDerive the aggregate demand curve through IS-LM cur ve
Model.
BExplain the effect of Monetary and Fiscal policy th rough IS-LM
Model.
FAQs