Jon Sampedro - Assessing synergies and trade offs for health and sustainable development.pdf

This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.

1. Assessing synergies and
trade-offs for health
and sustainable
development
OECD Environmental Outlook
“Integrated policies for the triple planetary crisis”
OECD, Paris, February 19
th
2024
Jon Sampedro –[email protected]
A view from the integrated
assessment modelling perspective

2. Background
2
Van Beeket al 2020
IAMs are widely applied tools for
scenario analysis

3. Background
3
EVOLUTION OF GCAM
https://gcims.pnnl.gov/community
IAMs are moving towards more
holistic sustainability assessment

4. GCAM/IAM Structure
4
-Socieconomics:
-Population
-GDP growth
-Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies
-Agricultural/land costs, crop yields,
profitability, water/fertilizer requirements
and carbon contents
-Water runoff/availability
-Depletable and renewable resource supply
curves
-Policies in place:
-Emission constraints
-Temperature limits
-Renewables / efficiency targets
-Land constraints / afforestation
targets
-ENERGY SYSTEM:
-Demand and flows
-Technology mix by sector
-Energy prices
-AFOLU:
-Land allocation
-Forest and agricultural production by crop
-Commodity prices
-Food/Feed balances
-WATER:
-Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
-EMISSIONS:
-GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
-CLIMATE:
-Radiative forcing / temperature increase
-CO2 concentrations
-+Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
-ECONOMY
-Policy Costs
-Carbon prices
INPUTS
OUTPUTS

5. 5
-ENERGY SYSTEM:
-Demand and flows
-Technology mix by sector
-Energy prices
-AFOLU:
-Land allocation
-Forest and agricultural production by crop
-Commodity prices
-Food/Feed balances
-WATER:
-Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
-EMISSIONS:
-GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
-CLIMATE:
-Radiative forcing / temperature increase
-CO2 concentrations
-+Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
-ECONOMY
-Policy Costs
-Carbon prices
OUTPUTS
Van de Ven
et al 2023
Ou et al 2021
Turner et al 2018
Sampedro et al 2020
Calvin et al 2014

6. 6
-Socieconomics:
-Population
-GDP growth
-Costs / efficiencies for energy technologies
-Agricultural/land costs, crop yields,
profitability, water/fertilizer requirements
and carbon contents
-Water runoff/availability
-Depletable and renewable resource supply
curves
-Policies in place:
-Emission constraints
-Temperature limits
-Renewables / efficiency targets
-Land constraints / afforestation
targets
-ENERGY SYSTEM:
-Demand and flows
-Technology mix by sector
-Energy prices
-AFOLU:
-Land allocation
-Forest and agricultural production by crop
-Commodity prices
-Food/Feed balances
-WATER:
-Water withdrawals/consumption by region for all uses
(e.g. irrigation or municipal)
-EMISSIONS:
-GHG and air pollutant emissions by region/sector/tech
(24 species)
-CLIMATE:
-Radiative forcing / temperature increase
-CO2 concentrations
-+Land/Ocean metrics (HECTOR)
-ECONOMY
-Policy Costs
-Carbon prices
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
How can we move forward
towards sustainability analysis?

7. 7
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools

8. 8
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
Air pollution(AP) and health

9. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
9
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:

10. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
10
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
-Alternative regional mitigation efforts
Markandya et al 2018

11. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
11
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
-Alternative regional mitigation efforts
-Different technological pathways
Sampedro et al 2020

12. GCAM Ecosystem: AP and Human Health
12
Feeding GCAM emission outputs into an
air quality emulator (TM5-FASST / rfasst)
Limitations for absolute magnitudes, but
useful for scenario intercomparison
Possibility to assess health co-benefits for
human health attributable to ambient air
pollution, and compare to mitigation costs:
-Alternative regional mitigation efforts
-Different technological pathways
-Comparison of alternativereal-world
policies
Sampedro et al 2021

13. 13
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools

14. 14
“GCAM Ecosystem” suite of tools
Land/Biodiversity

15. GCAM Ecosystem: Land
15
Use the GCAM Land-data-system (Moirai) to
protect land areas -> i.e., biodiversity purposes
Di Vittorio et al, 2023show the implications of
doubling protected land area
The study highlights the importance of spatial
heterogeneity in understanding and managing
land change
* Large implications for bioenergy production!
Global land allocation by land type
Primary energy consumption under different land availability constraints

16. GCAM Ecosystem: multipleSDG analysis
16
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)

17. GCAM Ecosystem: multipleSDG analysis
17
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
-Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the
Ecosystem

18. GCAM Ecosystem: multipleSDG analysis
18
Moreno et al 2023, explored the “synergies and
trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant
mitigation strategies with long-term SDG
objectives” (based on Iyer et al, 2018)
-Combined GCAM outputs with tools from the
Ecosystem

19. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
19
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):

20. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
20
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
-Residential energy
Sampedro et al in review

21. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
21
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
-Residential energy
-Food
Waldhoff et al in prep

22. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
22
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
-Residential energy
-Food
-Transportation sector
Van de Ven et al in prep
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
Passenger transport service use in 2050 relative to 2015
Reference Ref_PassDecarb Ref_PassDecarb_Deciles
biolim biolim_PassDecarb biolim_PassDecarb_Deciles

23. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
23
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
-Residential energy
-Food
-Transportation sector
Several data challenges for a global version:
-Energy services and food from regional
balances are allocated to different consumers
based on assumptions instead of “real data”
-Active conversations across modelling teams

24. Social heterogeneity: Multiple consumers
24
We are developing a GCAM version that includes
multiple consumers (i.e., income deciles):
-Residential energy
-Food
-Transportation sector
Several data challenges for a global version:
-Energy services and food from regional
balances are allocated to different consumers
based on assumptions instead of “real data”
-Active conversations across modelling teams
In GCAM-Europe we will disaggregate 60
consumer-types using country-level HBS

25. Challenges
25
Transitioning from unidirectional model connections to “hard-linking” (e.g., adding feedbacks):
-Trade-offs between accuracy and usability (e.g., gcamwrapper)
Integration of the different impacts obtained by the tools
-E.g., how to combine impacts on crop yields from O3 exposure and temperature or
precipitation changes
Diverse disciplines and backgrounds -> scientists speaking “different languages” (e.g., scales)
Difficult to develop such interdisciplinary project proposals

26. Sometakeaways
26
The modelling community is evolving towards more holistic analyses in order to provide
more complete information to global and regional stakeholders:
-Important to listen beyond scenario co-creation
Considering wide environmental (SDG-related) impacts is essential to evaluate the
effectivenessof any policy action
-Help to the acceptability of the climate policies
We need to integrate scientists with very different disciplines to build even more
integrated models and tools to address new transdisciplinary research questions

27. Thankyouforyourattention
27

28. 28

29. Extra
29

30. Background
30Van Soestet al 2019

31. New directionsoftheIAM community
31
Expand the models to represent new
sectors and dynamics related to
sustainability/wellbeing:
-Materials and circular economy
-Mineral supply curves
-New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade)
Stegmann et a 2022

32. New directionsoftheIAM community
32
Expand the models to represent new
sectors and dynamics related to
sustainability/wellbeing:
-Materials and circular economy
-Mineral supply curves
-New trade structures (e.g. bilateral trade)
Connect the models with additional tools to
expand the scope of the potential research
questions
-Finer spatiotemporal scales
Bausch et al 2021

33. GCAM forscenarioanalysis
33
Climate policy
-Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
-Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
-Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Ou et al 2021
Van de Ven et al 2023

34. GCAM forscenarioanalysis
34
Climate policy
-Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
-Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
-Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
-Alternative technological pathways
-Different energy/fuel costs
Sampedro et al 2020

35. GCAM forscenarioanalysis
35
Climate policy
-Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
-Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
-Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
-Alternative technological pathways
-Different energy/fuel costs
AFOLU
-Land Constraints (afforestation target)
-Alternative yield productivity pathways
Calvin et al 2014
Global bioenergy consumption in 2050 and 2095

36. GCAM forscenarioanalysis
36
Climate policy
-Long-term targets: Temperature, RCPs
-Emission pledges (e.g., Updated NDCs)
-Portfolio of climate policies (e.g. RES)
Energy system
-Alternative technological pathways
-Different energy/fuel costs
AFOLU
-Land Constraints (afforestation target)
-Alternative yield productivity pathways
Water
-Water availability/constraints
Turner et al 2018
Global water withdrawals by source

37. Addingnew structures/sectors
37
-New module for minerals (and mineral trade)
-Endogenous macroeconomic module: GCAM-MACRO
-Endogenous hydropower
-…

38. GCAM Ecosystem: multipleSDG analysis
38
Iyer et al, 2018, evaluated the effects of the NDC
implementation in multiple SDG indicators