KSA - Iran Rapproachment mediated by china .pptx

It's document about ksa and Iran rapprochement mediated by china to maintain balance of power in middle east .Both the countries vowed for mutual support and diplomatic cooperation.This will have profound impact on Pakistan as it's neighbours to both and shares religious bonds and beliefs.

1. WORLD CONFLICTS IN GLOBAL ISSUES Dr. Talha Rafeeq Alam (PMS Punjab 12, CSS 2022) In the Name of Allah SWT, Rabb al Aalimeen

2. KSA – IRAN RAPPROACHMENT In the Name of Allah SWT, Rabb al Aalimeen

3. SEQUENCE Orientation through Maps Origin/ Genesis of Conflicts Current Status Implications Questions

4. MAP MIDDLE EAST

5. GCC MEMBERS

6. IRAN INFLUENCE IN ME

7. IRAN PROXY MAP

8. IRAN PROXY MAP

9. TIMELINE OF SAUDI IRAN RELATIONS

10. WHY DID REVOLUTION TRIGGER STRAINED RELATIONS? Long standing Sectarian schism pronounced as Iranian revolution started asserting Shiite Islamic identity KSA, like Saddams Baath party, was fearful of Iran revolution expanding in other ME countries KSA fearful of Iranian influence on domestic politics – Qatif uprising, Nimr al Nimrs Assasination KSA’s posturing as leader of Islamic world came under threat from Iran Belligerent diplomacy – inflamed rhetoric, Irans criticism of KSA’s hosting of Hajj rituals

11. SUNNI POP MIDDLE EAST

12. SHIITE POP MIDDLE EAST

13. SHIA MAJORITY PROVINCE IN KSA

14. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Syrian Civil War 2011 onwards: Iran supported Assad Govt , while KSA supported US efforts to topple Assad For Iran, Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon make an ‘Axis of Resistanc e’ and projection of power in the Levant IRGC recruited and trained fighters under Gen Qasim Solemani , Zainab Brigade raised in Pakistan to recruit fighters KSA responded by kicking Assad out of Arab league, breaking ties and supporting the rebels

15. SYRIA CIVIL WAR STAKEHOLDERS

16. SYRIA CIVIL WAR REFUGEES

17. SYRIA CIVIL WAR 2022

18. DETOUR : KURDS

19. KURDISH AREAS

20. ROJAVA – DEMOCRATIC FED OF NORTHERN & EASTERN SYRIA

21. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Yemen War 2014 Onwards: Houthi Insurgents take control of Sanaa in 21 Sept Revolution Pres Abu Mansoor Al Hadi Govt resigns, KSA leads Gulf countries in a bid to reinstate Hadi through economic isolation and air raids on Houthis Shia Sunni split in Yemen with Iran supporting Shia Houthis and KSA supporting Sunni stakeholders Worst Humanitarian Crisi s in the world acc to UN The UN  estimates  that 60 percent of the estimated 377,000 deaths in Yemen since 2015 are the result of indirect causes like food insecurity and lack of accessible health services 74 Percent Yemenis in need of assistance https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/yemens-war-explained-in-maps-and-charts-interactive

22. YEMEN LATEST

23. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Palestine Conflict Although KSA has postured itself as an ally and sympathizer, it has maintained a distance from Palestine conflict over the years Causes include – close relations with the West, Arafats support of Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and KSA’s distrust of Iran Iran on other hand is heavily involved – provides military and financial assistance to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon Netanyahu has termed Iran as the “Biggest threat to Israel’s survival” Iran looks to solidify its credentials as a regional power and leading light of the Ummah by engaging Israel vis a vis the Palestine conflict

24. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Lebanon: Lebanon is divided along religious and sectarian beliefs – reflected in political struggle in Lebanon Iran backs Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in Lebanon, famous Shia personlaities have come from Lebanon like Musa al Sadr KSA backs Sunni candidates like Saad al Hariri In 2017, Hariri resigned from his post as PM in protest against Iran’s interference in Lebanon through Hezbollah

25. LEBANON POLITICAL DIVISIONS

26. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Iraq: M ajority of Iraqis are Shi'i Arab Muslims amounting to around 64% to 69% of the population, whereas Sunni Muslims represent between 32% and 37% of the population. Furthermore, the Sunnis are split ethnically among Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen Iran and KSA both try to project influence through respective spheres Historicaaly , KSA supported Saddam in Iran Iraq war. Shia parties viewed Saddam as oppressive on the Shiite majority However Saudi – Iraq relations turned South with Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1991

27. IRAQ DIVISIONS

28. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Iraq: “The Saudis have been very reluctant to accept a Shia-led government in Iraq. The main border crossing at Arar   was finally opened last month , after a 30-year closure dating to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The Saudis’ recent round of engagement dates to 2015, when they belatedly sent an ambassador to Baghdad, after cutting off relations 25 years before. The Saudi foreign minister visited the Iraqi capital in 2017, the first by a senior official since then-Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Prince Bandar went in early 1990. The Saudis  opened a consulate in Basra  in 2019 .” (Brookings Inst Rpt on Saudi Iraq Ties)

29. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Iraq: Iran used this ceded up space to project influence through Iraqi political corrdiors Evidence: Gen Qasim Solemani was assassinated by the US on Iraqi soil, Iran retaliated against US troops stationed on Iraqi soil Iraq has also played a mediatory role in Iran – KSA rivalaryIn 2021, Iraq hosted the first round of talks for resumption of ties between Iran and KSA

30. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Pakistan: The Shias of Pakistan are the world’s second largest Shia community after that of Iran, but comprise only 10-15 per cent of Pakistan’s population Shia population est between 20 to 40 million acc to UK Govt report “Pak Shia Muslims” July 2021 Pew Research report puts Pak Shia populace as making 15% of total Shia Muslim population in the world Iran recognizes this importance, however ties between Iran and Pak have never been very close due to KSA’s strategic and financial importance for Pak Pak supported KSA against Houthi rebels in principle, supports KSAs stance due to brotherly relations

31. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Pakistan: Example of Iran activity in Pak: Zainabiyoun Brigade hiring recruits for Syria Example of KSA influence: Close bilateral relations, Veto on Pak participation in Kuala Lampur summit, Funding for Wahabi / Ahl e Hadith Madarassas in Pak

32. THEATERS OF IRAN – KSA RIVALARY Gulf Countries – Bahrain and Qatar: Iran has relatively closer ties with Qatar, prompting KSA and other GCC countries to sever ties with Qatar and impose a blockade back in 2017 With Bahrain, Iran has had a complex relationship Bahrain small state of about 1.5 million, 55 to 70 % are projected to follow Shia Islam In 2011, there was an uprising against Bahrain Govt , GCC countires sent army to help govt suppress the rebellion The discontent was mainly by Shia muslims , was supported by Iran Relations have had a rocky ride ever since Iran also takes offense at US Naval presence in the area

33. US NAVAL BASE BAHRAIN

34. DEVELOPMENTS POST 2010

35. DEVELOPMENTS POST 2010

36. CHINESE BROKER REENGAGEMENT https:// www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/what-you-need-know-about-chinas-saudi-iran-deal What does the agreement entail: the foreign ministers of both nations will meet to prepare for exchange of ambassadors  two countries had agreed to respect state sovereignty and not interfere in each other’s internal affairs .  Riyadh and Tehran had agreed to activate a security cooperation agreement signed in 2001 https:// www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/10/iran-saudi-arabia-agree-restore-ties-china-talks

37. IMPLICATIONS OF KSA – IRAN RAPPROCHMENT Interactive plus White board

38. NEW VISTAS FOR PAK FOREIGN POLICY Interactive plus White board

39. NAGORNO KARABAKH MAPS Interactive plus White board

40. Nagorno Karabakh Map 1

41. Nagorno Karabakh Map 2

42. QUESTIONS?