Chapter 09 - Derivatives: Futures, Options, and Swaps
9-17
Answer: You should buy as many one-year copper futures contracts as you can
afford. This will depend on the margin payment required. As the margin payment is
a fraction of the value of the contract, you will leverage your exposure to market
movements. The value of the futures contracts will rise in lockstep with the price of
copper.
16. Suppose you have $8,000 to invest and you follow the strategy you devise in question
15 to leverage your exposure to the copper market. Copper is selling at $3 a pound
and the margin requirement for a futures contract for 25,000 pounds of copper is
$8,000.
a. Calculate your return if copper prices rise to $3.10 a pound.
b. How does this compare with the return you would have made if you have
simply purchased $8000 worth of copper and sold it a year later?
c. Compare the risk involved in each of these strategies.
Answer:
a) With $8,000, you can afford to purchase one copper futures contract. At $3 a
pound, this is worth $75,000. The contract specifies that you will take delivery of
25,000 pounds at $3 a pound in one-year’s time. If the price in the market has
risen by then to $3.10, you make a profit of $2,500 on the $8,000 margin you
posted. This represents a return of 31.25% on your investment.
b) If you purchased copper directly at $3 a pound, you could have afforded 2,667
pounds. If you sold it one year later for $3.10, you would have gained $267, a
return of 3.3%.
c) Speculating in the futures market can bring high returns (in this case returns
almost ten times as large), but, as usual, these high returns come at the cost of
bearing greater risk. Suppose, for example, your hunch about copper prices was
incorrect and the price of copper fell to $2.90. You would have lost $2,500 over
the year. If you were very unfortunate and the price of copper fell to $2.65, you
would have wiped out your entire $8,000 and a bit more as well.
In comparison, if you bought the copper at $3 and after a year you sold it at $2.90,
you would have lost only $267. For your entire $8,000 to be wiped out, the price of
copper would have to fall to zero! And, of course, once you own the copper
(ignoring storage costs), you could always elect to hold onto it until the price rose
again.
17. *You are given the following information on three firms.