NAEA September Market Report

NAEA September Market Report

2. KCM Divided into
Three Sections

4. 4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
Jan
2012
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan
2013
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan
2014
FebMarAprMayJunJuly
EXISTING
Home Sales
NAR 8/2014

5. 100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 8/2014
PENDING
Home Sales

6. “Unit sales are currently down
5 percent year-over-year, but we
expect 2014 to end up close to last
year’s totals at a little more than
5 million units sold.”
Lawrence Yun
NAR’s Chief Economist

7. “Our June data shows monthly inventory
picking up in markets already experiencing
price increases and fast property turnover.
These dynamics will result in strong
home sales and extend the buying
season past the usual June/July
peak to later in the third quarter.”
Jonathan Smoke
Chief Economist for realtor.com

8. reator.org
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

9. Searches for Real Estate Related Terms
Google Data, Indexed Search Query Volume, U.S.
July 2008 Jan 2009 July 2009 Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Jan 2012 July 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 Jul y 2014

10. PRICES

11. 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
App/Dep4.2%4.5%3.6%7.4%7.1%1.9%-1.6%-8.9%-7.0%0.4%-1.8%1.9%6.8%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Annual Home Price Gains
Source: Wall Street Journal

12. Prices Back to 2005 1Q Prices
Case Shiller8/2014
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

13. The Impact of Monthly Housing
Inventory on Home Prices
LESS THAN
6 MONTHS
BETWEEN
6-7 MONTHS
GREATER THAN
7 MONTHS
SELLERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will appreciate
NEUTRAL
MARKET
Homes prices
will only
appreciate with
inflation
BUYERS
MARKET
Homes prices
will depreciate

14. 4.6
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.7
5.55.55.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 8/2014

15. S&P Case Shiller 8/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICE
CHANGES
Case
Shiller

16. 13.2%
12.9%
12.4%
10.8%
9.3%
8.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
S&P Case Shiller 8/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICE CHANGES
Case Shiller

17. “For the first time since
February 2008, all cities
showed lower annual rates
than the previous month.”
David M. Blitzer
Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices

18. “We’re lowering that forecast to
4% year-over-year in light of the
latest slowdown, but we’re
sticking with our existing forecast
of 4% in subsequent years.”
Paul Diggle
Property Economist with Capital Economics

19. "This reversion to normality that we
are finally experiencing is expected
to continue across the country and
should further alleviate concern over
diminishing affordability and the risk
of another asset bubble."
Mark Fleming
Chief Economist for CoreLogic

20. “The simple visualization of complex
data for things like real estate trends
empower the real estate professional
to educate their consumer and
positions the agent as THE reliable
source for this information.”
Matt Dollinger
President and Founder, Gearbox Consulting

21. Prices 2Q 2014 vs. 2Q 2013
FHFA 2014 2Q Home Price Index

22. Prices 2Q 2014 vs. 2Q 2013
FHFA 2014 2Q Home Price Index

23. 12-Month Home Price Change
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014

24. 1-Month Home Price Change
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014

25. Prices & Time Since The Peak
CoreLogic Market Pulse 8.2014

26. Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate expertsand
investment & market
strategists.

27. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
Average Annual %
APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
Recovery
To Date

28. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
PROJECTED
Mean Percentage Appreciation

29. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 3Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.4%
27.8%
19.5%
11.2%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls All
Projections
Bears

31. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 8/2014

32. Freddie Mac 9/2014
Freddie Mac
Actual Rates
January 2013 –August 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

33. % Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
NAR 8/2014

34. Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 8/2014

35. Months Inventory of
HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 7/2014

36. NAR 8/2014
Year-over-Year
Inventory Levels

37. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 –September 2014
Yahoo & Case Shiller

38. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percentage of
Distressed Property
Sales
35%
9%
15%
NAR 8/2014

39. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4, 5, 14,
Existing HomeSales, Pending
Home Sales, Months
Inventory,
www.realtor.org/
6 Lawrence Yun Quote http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2014/08/08/2014-expected-have -strong-finish
7 Jonathan SmokeQuote http://www.realtor.com/news/realtor-com-report-surging-home-sales -predicted-10-metro-markets/
8 Foot Traffic https://magic.piktochart.com/output/2318478-foot -traffic-june-2014
9 GoogleStudy http://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/articles/house-hunting-season.html
11 Annual Home Price Gains https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BttrHkxCcAEREHB.jpg
12, 15, 16, 17,
Prices Back to 2005 1Q, Year-
over-YearPrice Changes,
David Blitzer Quote http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
18 Paul DiggleQuote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/31210-heres -why-home-price -growth-will-slow -to-4-in-2015
19 Mark Fleming Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/30915-home-price -gains-slow-to-75-as-forecast-calls-for-further-decline
21 FHFA 2Q Regional, 2Q State,
http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price -Index-Shows-Gains-for-Twelve-Consecutive-
Quarters.aspx

40. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
23-25
12-MonthChange,
1-Month Change,
Price & Time Since Peak
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
27-29
AverageAnnualAppreciation,
Projected Mean Appreciation,
Cumulative Appreciation
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q3_2014_HPE_Survey.php
31 Case ShillerHPI http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
32 30-YearFixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
33-35, 38
% Change in Sales, Months Inventory, Year-over-Year
Inventory, % Distressed Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org
37 Return on Investment
http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
http://finance.yahoo.com/
42 MarcDavison Quote http://1000watt.net/2014/08/real-estates-golden-prize/
58 Google Study http://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/articles/house-hunting-season.html

42. If people gravitate to
your brand, not just your
listings, you’ve got leverage
against any portal.
Marc Davison
Co-Founder 1000watt Consulting

43. Alexa Silva typically has about a dozen pieces up telling a story.
Three years ago she wasn't in real estate.
She will sell 50-60 homes this year.
[email protected] 772-245-9158

46. “Two in three people researched
prospective agents extensively online
prior to working with them.” -Google