ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 30 September 2025

Showcasing our latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics.

1. Measuring the economy,
taking on latest data
30 September 2025
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2. Measuring the economy,
taking on latest data
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Chair – James Benford
Deputy National Statistician for Surveys
and Economic and Social Statistics
Office for National Statistics

3. Housekeeping
Recording
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4. Agenda
•09:30am – 09:35am Welcome and introduction – James Benford, Deputy National Statistician
for Surveys and Economic and Social Statistics
•09:35am – 09:45am Today’s latest GDP data and revisions – Niamh McAuley, Head of
Quarterly GDP
•09:45am – 09:55am Today’s Trade and Balance of Payments data – Roger Smith, Assistant
Deputy Director, Global Trade, and Investment
•09:55am – 10:05am Research and Development and other major annual changes - Alison
McCrae, Branch Head Non-Financial Assets Delivery, and Eric Crane,
Statistician, Supply and Use Production
•10:05am – 10:25am Question and answer session
•10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – James Benford, Deputy National Statistician for
Surveys and Economic and Social Statistics
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5. Today’s latest GDP data
and revisions
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Niamh McAuley
Head of Quarterly GDP
Office for National Statistics

6. Summary of main changes for latest data
•Annual GDP in 2024 is estimated to be anunrevised 1.1%
•There are small revisions to previously published GDP growth rates from 2024 onwards
•The level of GDP in Quarter 2 2025 compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 is now
estimated to be 2.9% higher, revised up from the first estimate of 2.6%.
Time period Original Latest estimate Revision
2024 Q1 0.9 0.8 -0.1
2024 Q2 0.5 0.6 0.1
2024 Q3 0.0 0.2 0.2
2024 Q4 0.1 0.2 0.1
2025 Q1 0.7 0.7 0.0
2025 Q2 0.3 0.3 0.0
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7. Summary of main changes for latest data
•Our new data includes the previously announced revisions to 2023 which was
previously published on 19th August 2025
•Wide range of quality improvements we’re bringing in as part of this release
•Improvements introduced as part of Blue Book 2025; research and development, and
globalisation
•Updating the base year from 2022 to 2023 to reflect structural changes in the UK
economy
•Use of new VAT data for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
•replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data, new seasonal
adjustment factors, and a comprehensive review of GDP balancing
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8. Average real GDP, quarter on quarter growth %
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025
GDP first quarterly estimate (August 2025)GDP quarterly national accounts (September 2025)
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9. Average real GDP per head, quarter on quarter
growth (%)
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025
First quarterly estimateQuarterly national accounts
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10. Services- contributions to growth 2025 Q2
-0.15-0.10-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of hh as employers
First quarterly estimateQuarterly national accounts
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11. Manufacturing - contributions to growth 2025 Q2
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Manufacture of Food products, beverages and tobacco
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing
Manufacture of coke, and refined petroleum products
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
Manufacture Of Basic Pharmaceutical Products And Pharmaceutical…
Manufacture of rubber and plastics products, & other non-metallic…
Manufacture of basic metals and metal products
Manufacturing of computer, electronic & optical products
Manufacture of electrical equipment
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
Manufacture of transport equipment
Other manufacturing and repair
First quarterly estimateQuarterly national accounts
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12. Saving ratio(%)
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13. Upcoming releases
•16

October: Monthly GDP (Blue Book consistent revisions and
new estimate for August 2025)
•31 October: Blue Book and Pink Book 2025
•31

October: Revisions in Blue Book article
•13

November: First quarterly estimate of GDP for 2025 Q3
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14. Further reading
•Guide to GDP and how we calculate it
•Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs
•Why GDP figures are revised
•Blue Book 2025: Advanced Aggregate estimates
•GDP Quarterly National Accounts
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15. Today’s Trade and Balance
of Payments data
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Roger Smith
Assistant Deputy Director, Global Trade,
and Investment
Office for National Statistics

16. Current account as a % of GDP key components
Current account (incl PM)
deficit 3.8% of GDP – (£28.9bn)
Trade in services in surplus of
7.1% of GDP – (£53.8bn)
Primary income deficit of 2.2%
of GDP – (£16.8bn)
Trade in Goods (excl PM) deficit
of 7.5% of GDP - (£56.6bn)
Secondary income deficit was
0.6% of GDP – (£4.2bn)
Exc PM Current account deficit
3.2% of GDP (£23.8bn)
The current account is made up of the trade in goods and services account, the primary income
account and the secondary income account. Current prices, Seasonally adjusted.
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17. Trade goods deficit widened in Q2 2025
Trade in goods deficit (excluding Precious
Metals) widened to £56.6bn (7.5% GDP)
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18. Trade in goods revised 0.7% as
a % of GDP
CA deficit revised 0.3% as a %
of GDP in Q1 2025 to 2.2%
Current account (Excluding PM) revisions as a % of
GDP
Trade in services was unrevised
and remained at 6.5% of GDP in
Q1 2025
Primary income revised -0.3%
as a % of GDP in Q1 2025
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19. Financial account
Other investment £44.1bn
inflow
Portfolio investment £2.6bn
outflow
Net inflow from the rest of the
world £33.0bn
Direct investment £5.6bn
outflow
The financial account covers transactions that result in a change of ownership of
financial assets and liabilities between UK residents and non-residents.
Inflow from
RoW
Outflow to
RoW
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20. International Investment Position (IIP)
The international investment position (IIP) is a statement that shows at the end of the
period the value of UK external assets UK external liabilities.
Net liability position £341.8bn
increased from £324.4bn in
the previous quarter
Other investment– recorded
£46.0bn liability position
Portfolio - liability position of
£144.1bn
Direct investment liability
position of £203.5bn
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21. Further reading
Blue Book and Pink Book 2025: UK trade impact estimates
Balance of payments, UK: April to June 2025
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22. Research and
Development and other
major annual changes
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Alison McCrae
Branch Head Non-Financial Assets Delivery
Office for National Statistics
Eric Crane
Statistician, Supply and Use Production
Office for National Statistics

23. Source and method changes in 2025
•Change in inventories system redevelopment
•Unit Value Indices for Trade
•Precious metals
•Local government systems redevelopment
•Non-financial assets system redevelopment
•Streaming and subscription services
•Research & Development (BERD improvements)
•Globalisation (pharmaceutical industry)
•ASGS (focused on R&D industry)
•Updated deflators for repair & maintenance (construction) and research & development GFCF
•Education volume measure
•Own account software
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24. R&D has largest impact on GDP level in 2025
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Non-financial assets Research and development
Globalisation Own account software
Other method and data improvementsTotal
Impact of changes as a percentage of GDP, current prices
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25. What’s changed for Blue Book 2025?
•End-to-end redeveloped Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) survey
results are included for first time in the National Accounts
•BERD is the largest data source for estimates of investment in Research and Development as a non-financial
asset
•Feeds into Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and therefore Business Investment estimates - other sources
complete whole economy picture of GFCF
•In Blue Book 2025 we have revised BERD data for 2022 and 2023; later years (2024
onwards) are subject to revision until actual BERD data becomes available
•Earlier years updated using the 2022 level to create National Accounts aggregate
estimates
•Improved research and development deflator - improvements to the labour input
component using average wages based on Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
data - greater international comparability

26. Research and Development’s contribution to
Business Investment has increased
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Research and Development as a percentage of Business Investment
Current Prices
Updated Previous

27. Intellectual Property Products is the largest
contributor to revised levels of Business
Investment
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revisions to component levels of Business
Investment
Current Prices
Intellectual Property Products
Other buildings and structures
ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment
Transport Equipment
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revisions to component levels of Business
Investment
Chained volume measures
Intellectual Property Products
Other buildings and structures
ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment
Transport Equipment
Intellectual Property Products comprise: Research and Development, Software and databases; Entertainment and artistic originals; Mineral
Exploration

28. Further material
•Concepts, sources and methods to capitalise R&D in the national accounts Frascati
manual(OECD, 2015) and OECD Handbook on Deriving Capital Measures of Intellectual
Property Products (PDF, 1.36KB)(OECD, 2010)
•National Accounts article, June 2025 Improvements to estimation of research and
development within gross fixed capital formation and business investment: Blue Book 2025
(ONS, 2025)
•National Accounts article, April 2024 The impact of new business enterprise research and
development survey data on business investment, UK: 2022(ONS, 2024)
•National Accounts article, June 2025 covering deflator improvements including R&D
deflator improvement Deflator improvements to the UK National Accounts: Blue Book 2025
(ONS, 2025)

29. Globalisation review increases pharmaceuticals
share of GDP and exports
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Previous Updated
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Previous Updated
Pharmaceutical GVA as a percentage of GDP Pharma as percentage of all exports
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30. Volume GDP overall trend changes only slightly
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Previous Updated
GDP volume growth comparing previously published and Annual National Accounts 2025 (percentage)
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31. Range of causes of GDP growth rate revisions
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Household expenditure Government expenditure GFCF Net trade Other GDP
Contributions to volume GDP growth rate revisions by transaction, percentage points
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32. Further reading
Blue Book 2025: Advance aggregate estimates
Improvements to estimation of research and development within
gross fixed capital formation and business investment
Blue Book 2025: Globalisation
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33. Closing remarks
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James Benford
Deputy National Statistician for Surveys
and Economic and Social Statistics
Office for National Statistics

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