Petrobras Strategy 2025+: From Pre-Salt Strength to Energy Transition

EN:
This strategic presentation highlights Petrobras’ repositioning: from territorial expansion to value maximization and resilience. Anchored in world-class pre-salt assets, the plan dedicates 72% of CAPEX to E&P, 16% to the energy transition (US$ 16.3B), and consolidates a smart global presence through Rotterdam, Houston, and Singapore. Strategic bets include offshore wind, biomethane, green hydrogen, and CCUS.

PT:
Esta apresentação estratégica mostra o reposicionamento da Petrobras: da expansão territorial para a maximização de valor e resiliência. Ancorado no pré-sal de classe mundial, o plano dedica 72% do CAPEX ao E&P, 16% à transição energética (US$ 16,3 bi) e consolida presença global inteligente em Roterdã, Houston e Singapura. As apostas estratégicas incluem eólica offshore, biometano, hidrogênio verde e CCUS.

1. Executive Summary Paradigm Redefined: From territorial expansion to value maximization and strategic resilience. Core Pillar: Pre-salt as a world-class asset with “dual resilience” — economic (US$ 5/boe) and environmental. Just Transition: 16% of CAPEX (US$ 16.3B) allocated to renewables and low-carbon solutions. Smart Global Presence: Consolidated in 3 trading hubs (Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore); selective exploration via partnerships. Strategic Talent: Success hinges on behavioral competencies: adaptability, creativity, cultural intelligence.

2. Introduction – Strategic Relevance

3. Historical Context & Current Scenario • Old Model: Global vertical integration — scattered E&P assets and offices. • Inflection Point: Post-2015 reassessment driven by debt and inefficiency. • Current Scenario: Focus on pre-salt (78% of production), US$30B divestments, leadership through transformation. 2000- 2015 2015- 2020 2020- 2025 Global Expansion Restructuring Focus & Transition

4. Methodology & Frameworks

5. Global Portfolio Reorientation • Phase 1: Consolidation (2017-2024) - Closed 10/18 international offices. - Sold non-core assets — debt reduction and simplification. • Phase 2: Smart Expansion (2025-2029) - Commercial Presence: 3 global hubs to optimize trading. - Selective Exploration: Partnerships in geologically analogous regions.

6. The Pre-Salt: Pillar of "Dual Resilience" • Economic Resilience - Cost: ~US$ 5/boe - Robust cash flow (US$ 35/bbl) • Environmental Resilience - Lowest carbon intensity in sector - Strategic transition fuel

7. Financing the Energy Transition • Total CAPEX (2024-2028+): US$ 102 Billion - E&P (72%): US$ 73B (67% in pre-salt) - Transition (16%): US$ 16.3B • Strategic Bets: - Offshore Wind - Biomethane - Green Hydrogen - CCUS

8. Human Capital for the Strategy • Technical Competencies - Ultra-deepwater geology - E&P engineering - Low-carbon project management • Behavioral Competencies - Adaptability: Volatile contexts - Creativity: Innovative partnerships - Cultural Intelligence: Global trust-building

9. Results – Critical Synthesis

10. Results – Possible Scenarios • ✅ Base Scenario - Gradual, profitable transition - Maintained global relevance • ⚠️ High-Risk Scenario - Prolonged oil price drop - Delays in green projects • 🚀 Opportunity Scenario : Global leadership in offshore wind or green hydrogen .

11. Strategic Implications • For Petrobras: - Non-negotiable capital discipline - Accelerated development of global talent - Positioning as a “clean oil” and renewable energy provider • For the Sector: - Replicable model for NOCs - Global presence via influence and partnerships, not asset ownership

12. Conclusion – Future Perspectives • Niche Leadership Strategy: Ultra-deepwater dominance + internal transformation. • Petrobras’s Future: - Oil remains relevant, but increasingly “clean” and competitive. - Energy diversification is inevitable and must be economically viable. - Success measured by ability to operate in global partnership ecosystems. • Final Point: Proves that national energy sovereignty and sustainable global ambition can coexist.

13. Appendices & References • Primary Sources - Petrobras Strategic Plans (2023-2027, 2024-2028+) - Sustainability Reports (2023) - Petrobras Agency Communications • Secondary Sources - Agência Brasil, Veja, Jornal do Comércio - Academic literature from FGV and Nova SBE - Author’s White Paper : Xavier, V. P. (2025)

14. Contact Vitor Pereira Xavier Global O&G Consultant 22+ years | APAC, EU, LatAm Contact: [email protected] linkedin.com/in/vitorpx DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17128452 ORCID: 0009-0005-5810-1845 © 2025 | Academic-Strategic White Paper