PPT Economic Outlook[1PPT Economic Outlook[1PPT Economic Outlook[1

PPT Economic Outlook[1

1. Global and
Indonesia Economic
Update
Office of Chief Economist
PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero), Tbk.
October 2023

2. Tigarisikoglobal utamasaatini
Slower for Longer? Higher for Longer?Rising Geo-politic Risk

3. Ekonomi Global dalamtahappemulihan, namunwaspadaterhadaprisiko
perlambatandi AS dan Tiongkok
3
Source: IMF Oct-23 WEO, Bloomberg as of 9-Nov-23
3,65
4,30
6,25
6,50
5,90
3,50
5,30
4,55
4,50
5,55
4,45
2,50
4,38
3,63
2022 2023F 2024F
World Policy Rates (%)
ChinaIndiaUKUSEuro Area
3,0
5,0
4,2 4,1
7,2
6,3 6,3 6,3
4,1
0,5 0,6
2,0
2,1
2,1
1,5
1,8
3,3
0,7
1,2
1,8
2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
World GDP (%)
China IndiaUK US Euro area
1,8
0,9 1,9 2,2
6,21
4,92
4,43
4,09
10,53
5,20
2,38
2,00
6,43
3,01
2,59 2,25
9,20
3,32
2,74
2,20
2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
World Inflation (%)
ChinaIndiaUK US Euro Area

4. -3,1
-0,7-0,5-0,5
0,50,7
1,0
1,8
2,12,2
2,7
3,1
4,0
4,7
5,05,0
5,3
6,3
1,5
0,6
0,9
1,6
0,60,7
2,1
1,2
1,5
1,1
3,2
1,5
4,3
5,8
5,0
4,2
5,9
6,3
Sri Lanka*
Sweden
Germany
Chile
United Kingdom
Italy
Singapore
Australia
United States
Russia
Thailand
Brazil
Malaysia
Vietnam
Indonesia
China
Philippines
India
% yoy
Indonesia tetapdiproyeksikansebagaisalah satuperekonomianyang resilien,
meskipertumbuhanekonomidiproyeksiakanflat hinggatahundepan
Source : IMF, Oct-23 WEO, *Apr-23 WEO 4

5. Ekonomi Indonesia 2023 dan 2024 masihakanresilien
Source: Bank MandiriCalculation, BKPM
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
26-Jan-20
26-Mar-20 26-May-20
26-Jul-20
26-Sep-20 26-Nov-20
26-Jan-21
26-Mar-21 26-May-21
26-Jul-21
26-Sep-21 26-Nov-21
26-Jan-22
26-Mar-22 26-May-22
26-Jul-22
26-Sep-22 26-Nov-22
26-Jan-23
26-Mar-23 26-May-23
26-Jul-23
26-Sep-23 26-Nov-23
NilaiFrekuensi
426,7
168,8
Ramadan
2023
Ramadan
2022
Ramad
an
2021
Ramadan
2020
Delta Omicro
n
Indonesia GDP Growth by Contribution MandiriSpending Index
▪Belanjakonsumenmasihtumbuhsehatpada 5% pada 3Q23, sejalandengantingkatinflasiyang terkendalidan dayabeli
masyarakatyang masihresilien
▪Hal inijuga terefleksidariMandiriSpending Index, yang masihdalamtrenmeningkatmenujuakhirtahun2024
5
-2,16-1,94
-1,20
3,16
0,53
1,89
2,35
2,922,81
2,382,442,772,63
-2,06
-2,03
-0,07
2,31
1,19
1,471,33
0,95
1,57
1,090,68
1,39
1,81
3,214,10
-0,39
0,13
-0,39-0,64
0,07
1,18
-0,22
2,17
2,01
-0,09
-
3,49
-
2,17
-
0,69
7,08
3,53
5,03 5,02 5,46
5,73
5,01 5,04 5,17
4,94
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
% yoy, ppt
Household Spending
Government Spending
GFCF
Net Exports
Others

6. Investasimasihterakselerasiditopangoleh belanjamodal pemerintah
Source: Bank MandiriCalculation, BKPM
Investment Component in the GDP (GFCF) Investment Realization from BKPM (% YoY)
▪Pertumbuhaninvestasimasihterakselerasididukungoleh target pemerintahuntukmenyelesaikanproyekstrategisnasionalsertapembangunanIKN.
▪Kedepan, belanjamodal untukproyekinfrastrukturdiperkirakanakandapatmenopangpertumbuhaninvestasidi tengahancamanperlambatanekonomi
global yang berpotensimenghambatinvestasiasing.
6
15,8
21,6
14,2
16,217,6
28,3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23
% yoy
Direct Investment Realization
Total
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Domestic Direct Investment (DDI)
5,77
6,31
4,45
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
%
yoy
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)
Building and Structures
Non-building and Structures
Share of GFCF:
-71% is non-building & structures
-29% is building & structures

7. Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, hasilperhitunganOffice of Chief Economist Bank Mandiri
7
Pertumbuhanekonomiberdasarkanindustri(%, YoY)
Pertumbuhannegative (< -1,5%) Pertumbuhantinggi(>6,5%)Pertumbuhanmoderat(2,5%)
Catatan
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, YoY) 1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23 2019202020212022
% thd PDB
3Q23
PDB 2,97-5,32-3,49-2,17-0,697,083,535,035,025,465,735,015,045,174,945,02-2,073,705,31 100,0
Transportasi & Pergudangan 1,27-30,78-16,71-13,42-13,0925,09-0,737,9215,7921,2725,8016,9915,9315,2814,746,38-15,053,2419,87 6,0
Jasa Lainnya 7,09-12,60-5,55-4,84-5,1511,97-0,303,358,259,269,1311,148,9011,8911,1410,57-4,102,129,47 1,9
Akomodasi & Restoran 1,92-22,01-11,86-8,91-7,2821,54-0,144,986,589,8017,8313,8111,559,8910,905,79-10,263,8911,97 2,5
Jasa Bisnis 5,39-12,09-7,61-7,02-6,109,94-0,590,895,967,9210,7910,426,379,599,3710,25-5,440,738,77 1,8
Informasi Komunikasi 9,8210,8510,7210,998,726,905,546,247,158,066,958,757,138,028,529,4210,616,827,74 4,2
Pertambangan 0,45-2,72-4,28-1,20-2,025,227,785,153,824,013,226,464,925,016,951,22-1,954,004,38 10,2
Konstruksi 2,90-5,39-4,52-5,67-0,794,423,843,914,831,020,631,610,325,236,395,76-3,262,812,01 9,9
Keuangan & Asuransi 10,631,06-0,952,37-2,978,334,29-2,591,641,500,873,764,482,885,246,613,251,561,93 4,1
Manufaktur 2,06-6,18-4,34-3,14-1,386,583,684,925,074,014,835,644,434,885,203,80-2,933,394,89 18,7
Perdagangan 1,50-7,67-5,13-3,66-1,289,495,125,535,734,435,376,554,925,255,084,60-3,784,625,52 13,0
Listrik & Gas 3,85-5,46-2,44-5,011,689,093,857,817,049,338,052,312,673,155,064,04-2,345,556,61 1,0
Air 4,384,445,944,985,465,784,564,141,354,464,262,845,694,784,496,834,944,973,23 0,1
Jasa Kesehatan 10,333,6715,2616,533,3811,6814,0312,164,526,50-1,712,474,778,272,928,6611,5610,452,74 1,2
Real Estat 3,812,311,961,250,942,823,423,943,782,160,630,390,370,962,215,762,322,781,72 2,4
Pertanian 0,022,202,172,633,480,561,442,341,161,681,954,510,432,021,463,611,771,882,25 13,6
Jasa Pendidikan 5,861,182,381,33-1,545,89-4,420,71-1,41-1,064,460,421,025,43-2,076,302,610,110,59 2,7
Adm. Pemerintahan 3,16-3,211,81-1,55-2,249,95-9,930,98-1,29-1,5212,481,782,098,15-6,234,66-0,03-0,332,53 2,6
NTB 2,94-4,72-2,59-1,83-0,957,032,994,184,594,245,225,734,295,575,214,96-1,593,274,95 95,8
Pajak -Subsidi 3,65-19,33-23,07-9,177,008,3418,2524,0716,9738,4918,03-8,4223,61-2,97-0,856,52-13,1315,1313,83 4,2
PertumbuhanPDB sektoral
Sektor terkaitmobilitasmasihtumbuhtinggiseperti, Transportasi& pergudangandan Akomodasi& Restoran.

8. Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, hasilperhitunganOffice of Chief Economist Bank Mandiri
8
Pertumbuhansubsektormanufaktur(%, YoY)
Pertumbuhannegative (< -1,5%) Pertumbuhantinggi(>6,5%)Pertumbuhanmoderat(2,5%)
Catatan
Pertumbuhan industri manufaktur (%,
YoY)
1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q232019202020212022
% thd
manufaktur
3Q23
Manufaktur 2,06-6,18-4,34-3,14-1,386,583,684,925,074,014,835,644,434,885,203,80-2,933,394,89 100,0
Industri elektronik -3,52-9,29-6,86-2,11-4,086,73-8,06-0,496,800,2612,567,6212,7817,3213,68-0,51-5,46-1,626,54 8,3
Industri tembakau 3,49-10,84-5,19-10,77-9,58-1,070,696,030,98-0,03-2,94-7,11-7,262,5113,283,36-5,78-1,32-1,63 4,0
Industri logam dasar 3,982,765,1911,467,7118,039,5211,317,9015,7920,1615,1215,5111,4910,862,835,8711,5014,54 5,1
Industri kayu 3,17-1,23-5,92-4,36-8,51-6,07-1,241,138,275,36-4,31-6,23-6,23-1,867,51-4,55-2,16-3,711,17 2,1
Industri alat angkutan 4,64-34,29-29,98-18,98-10,9345,7027,8422,6114,207,3510,2610,9517,279,667,31-3,43-19,8617,8210,48 7,8
Industri barang galian bukan logam-5,30-9,13-9,11-12,52-7,288,052,960,461,35-4,87-1,97-2,30-2,101,427,20-1,03-9,130,89-1,81 2,7
Industri batubara & pengilangan migas2,58-10,20-7,44-11,96-7,703,37-0,778,581,150,754,268,651,948,167,18-1,11-6,810,573,72 10,2
Industri kertas 4,501,10-1,42-2,98-2,67-4,01-5,370,562,953,916,581,572,224,505,498,860,22-2,893,61 3,6
Industri kimia dan farmasi 5,598,6514,968,4511,469,159,718,286,472,10-3,50-1,83-3,52-1,364,538,489,399,610,73 9,5
Industria makanan dan minuman 3,940,220,661,662,452,953,491,233,753,683,578,685,334,623,287,781,582,544,92 35,1
Industri mesin dan perlengkapan -9,33-13,42-10,76-7,383,2216,3516,2511,059,9211,2217,676,951,01-0,021,86-4,13-10,1711,4310,45 1,5
Industri furnitur -7,28-2,57-1,69-1,728,047,187,0210,374,36-0,16-3,85-8,03-8,38-2,69-2,598,35-3,368,16-1,62 1,0
Industri tekstil & produk tekstil-1,24-14,23-9,32-10,49-13,28-4,54-3,345,9412,4513,748,093,61-0,07-1,70-2,7215,35-8,88-4,089,27 5,1
Industri kulit -0,36-8,55-19,75-6,071,743,2618,129,358,2513,1213,443,16-2,75-0,38-2,96-0,99-8,767,759,38 1,2
Industri pengolahan lainnya -4,73-5,191,155,541,240,90-6,48-1,811,943,938,779,601,71-1,07-2,975,17-0,88-1,645,92 0,6
Industri karet -0,82-11,98-9,610,243,8411,72-2,80-7,51-12,13-3,23-0,330,291,66-7,18-4,34-5,52-5,611,08-4,10 2,1
Pertumbuhansektormanufaktur
Produkmanufakturyang berorientasipasar ekspormasihtertekanakibatpelemahanpertumbuhanekonomiglobal.
Beberapaprodukmanufakturlain sudahmembaikseperti, industritembakaudan kayu. Sementaraindustriyang
konsistentumbuhtinggiyaituindustrilogamdasar, alatangkutdan elektronik.

9. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Regional
Ekonomi PulauJawarelatiftertekanpada 3Q23 denganpertumbuhanhanya4,83%; ekonomiluarJawa
juga mengalamipelemahansebagaidampakdaripenurunanhargakomoditas
Sumber: BPS
9
PertumbuhanEkonomiper Pulau(% YoY)
ProporsiEkonomi (3Q23) PertumbuhanEkonomi
-
10,69
1,40
10,32
7,03
3,72 4,63 2,57 3,06
-
2,83 3,12
10,40 8,45 9,83 12,42 9,18 12,35
5,47
1,88
-
0,90 3,57
7,07
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Papua
57,12%
5,47
-
2,52
3,66
5,31 5,18 5,25
3,36
-
6,71
-
3,90
-
2,63 -
0,86
7,95
3,08
4,80 5,06 5,65 5,75 4,78 4,96 5,18 4,83
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Jawa
22,16%
4,55
-
1,20 3,18
4,69 4,74 4,83
3,01
-
3,17
-
2,26
-
2,22
-
0,85
5,29 3,80
4,56 4,08
4,96 4,73 4,98 4,78 4,90 4,50
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Sumatera
8,08%
4,96
-
2,30
3,23
4,94
6,03 5,59
2,29
-
4,33 -
4,23 -
2,82
-
2,28
6,27 4,65 4,53
3,46
4,54
5,71 5,97 5,80 5,57 4,83
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Kalimantan
1,89%
7,95%
5,03
-
5,02 0,08
5,08 5,23 5,28
0,86
-
6,29 -
6,83 -
7,43 -
5,15 3,76
-
0,09
1,92
3,50 4,01
6,73 6,01
4,74
3,05 3,43
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Bali-Nusa Tenggara
2,80%
6,86
0,36
5,97
7,62 6,87 6,32
4,37
-
1,82
-
0,54
-
0,30
1,69
8,97
5,05
8,15
6,24
7,18
8,75 8,17 7,46 7,35 7,24
2019 2020 2021 2022
2023F 2024F 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Sulawesi-Maluku

10. -0,10
-2,20
-2,30
-2,35
-2,40
-2,70
-3,30
-3,55
-4,15
-4,35
-4,39
-4,80
-5,00
-5,20
-5,30
-5,50
-5,90
-5,95
-6,00
-6,40
-7,55
Singapore
Chile
Indonesia
Germany
Peru
Russia
Thailand
Mexico
Vietnam
Argentina
EM Average
China
Malaysia
United Kingdom
South Africa
Japan
Philippines
United States
Turkey
India
Brazil
34
34
35
37
39
56
58
61
67
74
83
83
88
90
104
122
168
258
Peru
Vietnam
Turkey
Chile
Indonesia
Mexico
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
South Africa
China
India
Brazil
Argentina
United Kingdom
United States
Singapore
Japan
0,60
1,75
2,80
3,10
3,10
3,70
4,20
4,70
4,80
5,60
5,80
5,80
6,50
6,60
7,40
7,60
16,78
54,50
125,90
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Japan
Vietnam
Indonesia
United States
Brazil
Singapore
Mexico
Philippines
South Africa
Peru
India
United Kingdom
Chile
Average EM
Turkiye
Argentina
IndikatorMakroekonomisecaraumummasihlebihbaikdibandingkannegara lain
Source: Bloomberg, Statista, as of October2023
Fiscal Balance 2023F (%)Gov. Debt to GDP 2023F %Inflation YE2023F (%) Current Account 2023F (% of GDP)
-4,60
-3,70
-3,60
-3,20
-2,75
-2,05
-2,30
-2,10
-2,20
-2,10
-1,20
-0,90
-0,65
1,50
2,00
1,50
2,40
3,00
5,80
17,20
Turkey
Philippines
Chile
United States
United Kingdom
Peru
South Africa
India
Argentina
Brazil
Average EM
Mexico
Indonesia
China
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Japan
Germany
Singapore
10

11. Exchange Rate USDIDR (Rp/$) and 10yr Bond Yield (%)
Source: Bloomberg, as of Nov 10, 2023
Currencies against USD (% mom)
appreciate depreciate
Dampakvolatilitasglobal pada pasar keuanganrelatifterbatasdan temporer
15,691
15.935
14.500
14.700
14.900
15.100
15.300
15.500
15.700
15.900
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23
USDIDR-rhs
6.90
7,19
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
Nov-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23 Jun-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Oct-23
10Y Govt Bond Yield-lhs
-1,30%
0,08%
0,09%
0,24%
1,45%
0,26%
2,78%
0,25%
0,26%
1,55%
3,21%
-4,11%
-3,85%
-2,98%
-1,92%
-0,81%
-0,36%
-0,22%
-0,11%
0,02%
1,91%
2,79%
Thailand
Brazil
Korea
Philippines
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
China
India
Japan
Turkiye
Nov mom 2023
Oct mom 2023

12. Source: Bloomberg, CEIC per 27-Oct-23
Net Capital Inflow/Outflow
in Bond and Stock Markets(IDR trilion)
Net Buy/Sell
in Bond Marketsby type of Investor (IDR trilion)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Individual Foreign
Insurance + Pension FundMutual Fund + Others
Central Bank Bank
(Net Flow, IDR tn)
12
Government Bond Yield
Pasar obligasimasihterjaga, didukungmeningkatnyaperananinvestor domestik
-48,3
-20,4
25,3
49,7
-12,6
5,28,4
40,1
-20,9
-3,2
-7,9
-0,8
Jan-21 Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
BondStock
(Net Flow, IDR tn)

13. BI menaikkansukubungauntukmenjagastabilitasnilaitukar
Source: Bloomberg
Real Policy Rate (%) Real Yield (%) BI Rate and FFR (%)
13
2,28
6,00
5,50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 Oct-23
% yoy
Indonesia's Inflation (% yoy)BI-7DRRR FFR
-3,10
-1,45
-1,30
-1,06
-0,20
-0,10
0,20
0,40
0,91
1,10
1,20
1,48
1,80
2,20
3,45
3,72
3,75
7,00
7,56
Japan
UK
Australia
Taiwan
South Korea
New Zealand
Eurozone
Philippines
Vietnam
Malaysia
Canada
India
USA
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Russia
Brazil
-2,16
-2,11
-1,47
-0,69
-0,53
-0,10
0,18
0,55
1,09
1,16
2,22
2,34
2,71
2,94
4,95
6,52
7,54
UK
Japan
Eurozone
Vietnam
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
South Korea
Philippines
USA
Malaysia
India
China
Thailand
Indonesia
Brazil
South Africa

14. SelainIndonesia, Philippine dan Thailand juga telahmenaikkansukubunga
Source: Bloomberg 14
4,75
5,00 5,00
5,25 5,25
5,50 5,50 5,50 5,50
1,50
1,75 1,75
2,00 2,00 2,00
2,25
2,50 2,50
6,00
6,25 6,25 6,25 6,25 6,25 6,25 6,25
6,50
4,19 4,19
4,09 4,09 4,09 4,09 4,06 4,06 4,06
5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,75
6,00
2,75 2,75 2,75
3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00
6,00 6,00
5,50
5,00
4,50 4,50 4,50 4,50 4,50
3,65 3,65 3,65 3,65
3,55 3,55
3,45 3,45 3,45
1
2
3
4
5
6
Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23
Central Banks’ Policy Rates
USA ThailandPhilippinesSingapore
IndonesiaMalaysiaVietnam China
-
3,25
-
3,25 -
3,00
1,25
1,00 1,00
-
0,81
-
1,16
-
1,44
0,75
0,50 0,50
-
2,25
-
2,25
-
2,50
1,00
-
0,75
-
1,00
-
1,35
-
1,70
-
2,05
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mar-23 Jun-23 Oct-23
Spread to US FFR
ThailandPhilippinesSingapore
IndonesiaMalaysiaVietnam
China

15. Lajuinflasiterkendalidenganbaik, dengandampakEl Nino yang relatifterbatas
Passthrough impact of Rupiah depreciation to inflation is relatively small
2,28
2,00
1,99
3,62
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-5
0
5
10
15
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23
% yoy% yoy
Headline - rhs
Core - lhs
Administered - lhs
Volatile - lhs
Indonesia Inflation Rate
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Apr-03 Mar-04 Feb-05 Jan-06 Dec-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Sep-09 Aug-10
Jul-11 Jun-12
May-13
Apr-14 Mar-15 Feb-16 Jan-17 Dec-17 Nov-18 Oct-19 Sep-20 Aug-21
Jul-22 Jun-23
Nino Index - lhs Upper Limit Nino Index - lhs
Lower Limit Nino Index - lhs Food Inflation - rhs
Indonesia Food Inflation & El Nino Index
> 0.5 = El Nino (low rainfall)
< -0.5 = La Nina (high rainfall)

16. Krisisgeopolitik: PerangIsrael Hamas
Source: Bloomberg Economist, OCE BMRI Calculation
Scenario
Impact on
Oil Prices
Impact to Domestic Fuel Price (BBM)
Impact to 2023F Domestic
Inflation
Confined
War
+$4/barrel
=> $ 87 / barrel
Pertalite: No Change
Solar: No Change
Forecast CPI: No Change
(3.00% yoy)
Proxy
War
+$8/barrel
=> $ 91 / barrel
Pertalite: increase by IDR 110.7/liter (+1.1%)
Solar: increase by 115.4/liter (+1.7%)
Forecast CPI: increase by 0.07 ppt
(3.07% yoy)
Assuming that government
directly pass through the oil
price impact to economy
(no compensation to energy
SOEs nor subsidies)
Direct
War
+$64/barrel
=> $ 146.89 /
barrel
Pertalite: increase by IDR 7,087/liter (+70.9%)
Solar: increase by IDR 7,388/liter (+108.6%)
Forecast CPI: increase by 4.85 ppt
(7.85% yoy)
Base: Existing oil price is still below government’s assumption
Oil Brent Price (YTD in Oct-23) $ 83 / barrel
Government’s Assumption of Oil Price: $ 90 / barrel
Base: Domestic Fuel Price (BBM) as of Oct-23
Pertalite IDR 10,000
Solar IDR 6,800
16
Sensitivity:
•Every USD 1/barrel increase (after USD 90 / barrel); will result in Pertaliteprice: +IDR 110.74 / liter and Solar: +IDR 115.4 / liter
•Every 10% increase in Pertaliteprice; will result in higher inflation of 0.27 ppt
•Every 10% increase in Solar price; will result in higher inflation of 0.05 ppt

17. SelamaJan-Sep23, kondisifiskalmasihsurplus. Pemerintahakanterus
mendorongspending pada triwulanIV
Source: Ministry of Finance
-4,16
-2,66
0,33
0,32
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Government’s Deficit to GDP (%)
2020 2021 2022 2023
5
10
18
28
35
46
53
61
71
87
96
114
59
17
25
33
41
48
55
64
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23
Total Spending Realization to APBN (%)
8
16
27
46
58
72
84
96
107
118
129
143
9
17
26
41
49
57
66
74
83
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23 Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23
Total Revenue Realization to APBN (%)
17

18. 8,96
6,54
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23
LDR-lhs Loan Growth-rhsDeposit Growth-rhs
18
Kondisilikuiditas perbankan cenderungketat
Source: OJK, OCE Bank Mandiri
Pertumbuhan total DPK dan DPK Valas masih negatif secara ytd, terendah dalam 6 tahun terakhir
FX Loan and Deposit Growth (% yoy)
83.92
Loan and Deposit Growth (%yoy)
%yoy% %yoy%
6,45%
11,11%
12,21%
9,01%
-0,07%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Deposit Growth (% ytd)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
79,2
3,10
8,17
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22 Dec-22 Apr-23 Aug-23
LDR - lhs Loan Growth - (rhs % yoy)
Deposit Growth - (rhs % yoy)
4,85%
1,28%
12,08%
8,94%
6,86%
-3,79%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
FX Deposit Growth (% ytd)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

19. BI mengeluarkankebijakanmakroprudensialuntukmendukunglikuiditasdan penyaluran
kreditperbankan
Source: Bank Indonesia
19
No Sector sektorPrioritas Credit Distribution 3%-7% Credit Distribution > 7%
1Mineral and Coal Downstream 0.2% 0.3%
2Food Crops, CPO Plantations, Sugarcane, Fisheries and Livestock 0.6% 0.8%
3Property/Home Ownership 0.5% 0.6%
4Tourism 0.25% 0.3%
5Macroprudential Inclusive Financing Ratio (RPIM) Reserve Requirement Cut, Incentive 0,1%-1% For RPIM 10%-50%
6Banks that successfully increased their market share of green loans by up to 5%Reserve Requirement Cut, Incentive 0.3%-0.5%
Bank Indonesia issued a liquidity easing policy by lowering the Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (PLM) ratio starting
December 1, 2023.
1.Lower by 100 bps from 6% to 5% for Conventional Commercial Banks (BUK) with repo flexibility of 5%; and Sharia PLM ratio by 100 bps from
4.5% to 3.5% for Sharia Commercial Banks/Sharia Business Units (BUS/UUS) with repo flexibility of 3.5%.
2.This policy is estimated to provide additional liquidity of IDR81.5 trillion and will be effective starting December 1, 2023.
▪Kebijakaninsentiflikuiditasmakroprudensial(KLM)denganmemberiinsentifbagibankyangakanmenyalurkankreditpada
sektorsektorprioritas.KebijakaninidiperkirakandapatmenambahlikuiditassebesarRp158triliun
▪KebijakanMacroprudentialLiquidityBuffer(PLM),yangdiperkirakandapatmenambahlikuiditassebesarRp85triliun
▪BImengeluarkanberbagaiinstrumentbarusebagaialternatifpenempatandana,sekaligusuntukmemperdalampasarkeuangan
sepertiinstrumentTermDepositValasDHE,SekuritasRupiahBankIndonesia(SRBI),SekuritasValasBankIndonesia(SVBI)dan
SekuritasValasSyariahBankIndonesia(SUVBI)

20. Office of Chief Economist
Untukmemperkuatlikuiditasvalas, pemerintahmeriliskebijakanRepatriasi
DHE SDA
Pertambangan
209 pos tarif
Perkebunan
567 pos tarif
Kehutanan
263 pos tarif
Perikanan
506 pos tarif
Ekspor SDA HS 8 -
Digit(USD Miliar)
77.8 35.85 8.09 4.23 126 65.5
PotensiDHE
(30%)(USD Miliar)
23.34 10.8 2.43 1.26 37.83
Total
1545 pos tarifJan-Sep23
ProporsiEkspor
SDA thdtotal
Ekspor(%)
Ekspor SDA HS 8 -
Digit(USD Miliar)
120.07 54.17 11.18 6.06 193.3 66.19
PotensiDHE
(30%)(USD Miliar)
36.50 16.30 3.36 1.82 57.98
Tahun2022
BerdasarkanrealisasiJan-Sep23, eksporSDA sebesarUSD 126Miliar. PotensiDHE eksporSDA yang
dapatmasuksebesar30% yaitusebesarUSD 37.8MiliaratausekitarUSD 4 –USD 5 Miliarperbulan
Namundenganmengeluarkanfaktoreksportirdengannilai<USD250.000, sertaeksportiryang
sifatnyanatural hedge, potensiDHE eksporSDA diperkirakansekitarUSD 3 –4 Miliarper bulan

21. Kebijakan hilirisasi industri menopang akselerasi di sektor manufaktur
Source: Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources & BPS.
Article 170A:
Since June 2023, all
mining raw materials
are not allowed to
export 2023.
Nickel
(2020)
Bauxite, Cooper & Tin
(2023)
Raw Material
Midstream Products
Baterry Aluminum Cooper Katode Tin Bar
Final Products
Electric VehiclesSolar PanelElectronic Products
Nickel Export
97776 364632
0,6
6,0
3,0
4,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2017 2022
6M22 7M23
Billion USD
Thousand Ton
Nickel Matte
Volume (Kiri) Nilai (Kanan)
Investment to Mining & Basic Metal
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2022
FDI (Juta USD)
Industri Pertambangan
Industri Logam Dasar
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2022
DDI (MiliarIDR)
Industri Pertambangan
Industri Logam Dasar
The down-streaming
industrial policy is
expected to invite more
investment in mining
processing; to increase
more production and
export.
1 6 3 4
1,3
13,6
7,6
8,6
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2017 2022
6M22 7M23
Billion USD
Million Ton
Ferro-Nickel
Volume (Kiri) Nilai (Kanan)
2
33
6
7
1010
11
13
15
17
34,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Juta Ton
Unit
Realisasi (Kiri)
Target (Kiri)
Kapasitas Input Bijih (Kanan)
Nickel Smelter
In the end, the value
chain of the product will
be growing such as,
electric vehicles, solar
panel and electronic
products
21

22. Macro Assumption 2023-2024
Source: OCE BMRI
Forecast
FORECAST
2022 2023 2024
GDP Indonesia (% yoy) –annual 5.31 5.04 5.06
GDP China (% yoy) 3.0 5.2 4.5
GDP USA (% yoy) 2.1 1.8 1.0
Current Account
% to GDP 0.96 -0.65 -1.75
Inflation (%, yoy) 5.51 3.00 3.19
Exchange Rate (IDR/USD) -eop 15,568 15,523 15,418
BI 7D Reverse Repo Rate (%) 5.50 6.00 5.50
Fed Funds Rate (%) 4.50 5.75 5.25
IDR Govt.Bond10yr (%) 6.94 6.85 6.52
Deposit Growth (%, yoy) 9.01 7.83 8.01
Credit Growth (%, yoy) 11.35 9.00 9.08
Banks Liquidity (LDR) 78.8% 79.6% 80.4%
22

23. Office of Chief Economist
THANK YOU

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