Quantifying Artificial Intelligence and What Comes Next!
PeterCochrane
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43 slides
May 20, 2024
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About This Presentation
It should be no surprise that AI is treading a similar path to computing which began with single-purpose machines tasked for payroll calculations, banking transactions, or weapons targeting et al, but nothing more! It took decades for General Purpose Computing to emerge in the form of the now ubiqu...
Slide Content
Quantifying AI
and What Comes Next?
Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc
Sentient Systems Research
MayDay 2024 London
and What Comes Next?
Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc
Sentient Systems Research
MayDay 2024 London
Positioning
& REALISM
-All new technologies create a degree of concern
-Initial reporting tends to focus on ‘downers’
-A media feeding frenzy is now the norm
-Hollywood often conditions expectation
-Most commentators never built an AI
-Most politicians never used an AI
-Negativity/threat scenarios sell
-Media promotes negativity
- Dystopia is popular !
& REALISM
-All new technologies create a degree of concern
-Initial reporting tends to focus on ‘downers’
-A media feeding frenzy is now the norm
-Hollywood often conditions expectation
-Most commentators never built an AI
-Most politicians never used an AI
-Negativity/threat scenarios sell
-Media promotes negativity
- Dystopia is popular !
Positioning
& REALISM
-It has taken ~80 years to get here
-AI has attained new levels of capability
-Computing power has been the prime limiter
-YES, AI has overtaken humans in many spheres
-AI can solve many problems that are way beyond us
-AI is already saving human lives in medicine & care
-AI is now core to the survival of our species
- Our future is about a symbiosis with AI
& REALISM
-It has taken ~80 years to get here
-AI has attained new levels of capability
-Computing power has been the prime limiter
-YES, AI has overtaken humans in many spheres
-AI can solve many problems that are way beyond us
-AI is already saving human lives in medicine & care
-AI is now core to the survival of our species
- Our future is about a symbiosis with AI
DISPELLING
HYSTERIA
“Robots and AI don’t
type, they plug in”
Unthinking nonsense !
“Media Panic: A big threat
to jobs and the survival
of life on Earth”
HYSTERIA
“Robots and AI don’t
type, they plug in”
Unthinking nonsense !
“Media Panic: A big threat
to jobs and the survival
of life on Earth”
DISPELLING
OLD WIsdoms
The human gold standard
OR:
play chess
beat humans
beat a grand master
be cognisant like humans
AI will never:
pass the Turing test
master complexity
be innovative
be creative
OLD WIsdoms
The human gold standard
OR:
play chess
beat humans
beat a grand master
be cognisant like humans
AI will never:
pass the Turing test
master complexity
be innovative
be creative
Nonsensical
Expectations
Speciated diversification
Mobile
Animated
Integrated
Socio/Environ
Sensorially Rich
Fixed/Mobile
Inanimate/Robotic
Sensorially Deprived
Socio/Environ/Networked
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
Expectations
Speciated diversification
Mobile
Animated
Integrated
Socio/Environ
Sensorially Rich
Fixed/Mobile
Inanimate/Robotic
Sensorially Deprived
Socio/Environ/Networked
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
SMALL BRAIN
Performance
Speciated diversification
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
Performance
Speciated diversification
“All lifeforms & entities evolve/mutate
biologically/by design to function in a
given environment - we should not be
expecting to see comparative abilities”
“We have 3 machines that
cannot be exhaustively tested
- can you come up with a means of
quantifying their relative intelligences?”
Genesis: 2009 A
Chance Enquiry
Systems are now so big/complex,
we can no longer fully test them !
iP3G >> iP5G in 15years
Pixels 20x
RAM 20x
Storage 32x
Clock 6x
cannot be exhaustively tested
- can you come up with a means of
quantifying their relative intelligences?”
Genesis: 2009 A
Chance Enquiry
Systems are now so big/complex,
we can no longer fully test them !
iP3G >> iP5G in 15years
Pixels 20x
RAM 20x
Storage 32x
Clock 6x
Attitude
Philosophers: Let’s think how a chicken works
Scientists: Lets dissect to see how it works
Engineers: How difficult can it be? Let’s build one!
Arrogance and Ignorance can, at times, be
be positive attributes, especially when a
deadline is involved … ?!$&%@:
Philosophers: Let’s think how a chicken works
Scientists: Lets dissect to see how it works
Engineers: How difficult can it be? Let’s build one!
Arrogance and Ignorance can, at times, be
be positive attributes, especially when a
deadline is involved … ?!$&%@:
ENGINEERING
Engineering = Applied Science
“Engineering creates the instruments
of observation and measurement
necessary to advance our
understanding”
“Science and Engineering enjoy a synergistic
relationship - an interdependence that sees
them feeding off, and feeding, each other”
Engineering = Applied Science
“Engineering creates the instruments
of observation and measurement
necessary to advance our
understanding”
“Science and Engineering enjoy a synergistic
relationship - an interdependence that sees
them feeding off, and feeding, each other”
Engineering
N0 Excuses!
“Scientists (Mathematicians & Philosophers) are free to
declare that there is no solution to a problem: BUT,
Engineers enjoy no such luxury - we always have
to find a solution, even if it is wrong”!
Guess
Iterate
Analogies
Approximate
Experiment
Compute
Consult
Model
Trial &
Error
N0 Excuses!
“Scientists (Mathematicians & Philosophers) are free to
declare that there is no solution to a problem: BUT,
Engineers enjoy no such luxury - we always have
to find a solution, even if it is wrong”!
Guess
Iterate
Analogies
Approximate
Experiment
Compute
Consult
Model
Trial &
Error
Mouse Brain: Structural Mapping
Top Down Fails
Only provide general insights
By analogy: “You can’t infer
much about human society
from a road map of the UK”
The detail: “Hidden within
the functional complexity”
Top Down Fails
Only provide general insights
By analogy: “You can’t infer
much about human society
from a road map of the UK”
The detail: “Hidden within
the functional complexity”
AXIOM
This
will never
understand
This
Vis Thermodynamics
Increasingly apparent, and we most likely need the help of
Quantum Computers - not going to happen soon!
This
will never
understand
This
Vis Thermodynamics
Increasingly apparent, and we most likely need the help of
Quantum Computers - not going to happen soon!
Way beyond anything conceived and built by man
and in no way resembles an electronic computer
- moreover, it is distributed across the entire body!
HUMAN
BRAIN
~10
11 neurons with ~10
2 - 10
5 links
Human body ~ has yet to be charted!
> 50 different chemicals influence
synaptic switching
“Human brain and nervous system
has far more unique states than the
number of atoms in the universe”
“Intelligence is state related within
any given structural form”
and in no way resembles an electronic computer
- moreover, it is distributed across the entire body!
HUMAN
BRAIN
~10
11 neurons with ~10
2 - 10
5 links
Human body ~ has yet to be charted!
> 50 different chemicals influence
synaptic switching
“Human brain and nervous system
has far more unique states than the
number of atoms in the universe”
“Intelligence is state related within
any given structural form”
Latest
Detail
~15 x 30 x µm Frame
Demands AI +
Quantum Computing ++??
As of today we
lack the necessary
technology to understand!
Detail
~15 x 30 x µm Frame
Demands AI +
Quantum Computing ++??
As of today we
lack the necessary
technology to understand!
Meaningless-IQ
Meaningless
Turing TEST
“The good news Dave, is that the
computer’s passed the Turing
Test, but you have failed”
GO
Poker
Chess
Complexity
Mammograms
Comp Games
Protein Folding
Medical Diagnosis
Composing Music
Drawing/Painting
Circuit Design
Data Analysis
Transcription
Chip Design
Translation
++++
Turing TEST
“The good news Dave, is that the
computer’s passed the Turing
Test, but you have failed”
GO
Poker
Chess
Complexity
Mammograms
Comp Games
Protein Folding
Medical Diagnosis
Composing Music
Drawing/Painting
Circuit Design
Data Analysis
Transcription
Chip Design
Translation
++++
Human Failing
Turing Test
Turing Test
COMMON
ERRORs
Physical and mental abilities evolve to meet the
specific demands of given environments - many
of which we cannot survive!
“Speciated superiority is a nonsense”
Human capabilities and attributes evolved to
exploit the physical opportunities of surface
living on planet earth - not in water, air, or
space!
We need to be asking; “Where
can AI best help and support
humanity, and how do we form
symbiotic relationships?”
ERRORs
Physical and mental abilities evolve to meet the
specific demands of given environments - many
of which we cannot survive!
“Speciated superiority is a nonsense”
Human capabilities and attributes evolved to
exploit the physical opportunities of surface
living on planet earth - not in water, air, or
space!
We need to be asking; “Where
can AI best help and support
humanity, and how do we form
symbiotic relationships?”
Alfred Binet IQ Test ~1909
"Philosophers have given their moral approval to the deplorable
verdict that affirms human intelligence is fixed, and cannot be
augmented. We must protest against this brutal pessimism; we will
try to demonstrate that it is founded on nothing"
A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour,
equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of an actual human
based on a natural language conversation. All participants are
separated. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the
human, the machine is said to have passed.
Alan Turing Test ~1950
WORTH?
Taken out of their original constraining bounds of
application, these tests are of dubious value!
"Philosophers have given their moral approval to the deplorable
verdict that affirms human intelligence is fixed, and cannot be
augmented. We must protest against this brutal pessimism; we will
try to demonstrate that it is founded on nothing"
A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour,
equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of an actual human
based on a natural language conversation. All participants are
separated. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the
human, the machine is said to have passed.
Alan Turing Test ~1950
WORTH?
Taken out of their original constraining bounds of
application, these tests are of dubious value!
1) Top down study is self limiting
3) There is no common lexicon
4) Paucity of potential models
5) An endless sea of opinions
6) Interdisciplinary confusions
7) Assuming AI equivalences??
No pertinent visible successes in terms
of meaningful quantifications, and/or,
comparative measures
Day 1: Where
To Start ?
3) There is no common lexicon
4) Paucity of potential models
5) An endless sea of opinions
6) Interdisciplinary confusions
7) Assuming AI equivalences??
No pertinent visible successes in terms
of meaningful quantifications, and/or,
comparative measures
Day 1: Where
To Start ?
“An ability to learn from experience and to adapt/shape, selected environments”
Day 1: DEFINITION
All are of a general (descriptive) form:
“A capacity for abstraction, logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional
knowledge, reasoning, planning, creativity critical thinking, and problem solving”
+
+
+
+
From an engineering perspective all such descriptors are useless!
“The faculty of rational behaviour”
“The capacity to experience feelings and sensation”
>1000 years of thinking & debating
sees >150 intelligence definitions
Day 1: DEFINITION
All are of a general (descriptive) form:
“A capacity for abstraction, logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional
knowledge, reasoning, planning, creativity critical thinking, and problem solving”
+
+
+
+
From an engineering perspective all such descriptors are useless!
“The faculty of rational behaviour”
“The capacity to experience feelings and sensation”
>1000 years of thinking & debating
sees >150 intelligence definitions
DAY 1: MY MIND SET
Dr Johnson/Humpty Dumpty threads!
“When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less”
Humpty Dumpty ~ 1871
Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
“Language is an instrument of Science, and words are but signs of ideas”
“Nothing is ever attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome”
Dr Samuel Johnson ~ 1755
“I will define, exactly what each word actually means”
“Observation; The Brain is not fully contained by the skull”
Peter Cochrane ~ 1999
Dr Johnson/Humpty Dumpty threads!
“When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less”
Humpty Dumpty ~ 1871
Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
“Language is an instrument of Science, and words are but signs of ideas”
“Nothing is ever attempted if all possible objections must first be overcome”
Dr Samuel Johnson ~ 1755
“I will define, exactly what each word actually means”
“Observation; The Brain is not fully contained by the skull”
Peter Cochrane ~ 1999
What about THE
Nervous SysteM?
All the brains are not in the head !
Our widow to, and connection with, reality
Fixed & Mobile intelligences are grossly different
“Without sensors, actuators, and communication, a brain
will not exhibit any recognisable intelligence”
“Cooperative, communicative, connected, intelligences
are the star performers - at the top of the stack”
Nervous SysteM?
All the brains are not in the head !
Our widow to, and connection with, reality
Fixed & Mobile intelligences are grossly different
“Without sensors, actuators, and communication, a brain
will not exhibit any recognisable intelligence”
“Cooperative, communicative, connected, intelligences
are the star performers - at the top of the stack”
PUBLISHED Studies
Spanning machines and biological life
Worryingly simple/complex and clearly wrong/inadequate!
At a macro level of memory and processing power Intelligence ∝ M .P
Unbelievably complex at a micro level of neurons Modelling dendrites,
synapse, axons +
Spanning machines and biological life
Worryingly simple/complex and clearly wrong/inadequate!
At a macro level of memory and processing power Intelligence ∝ M .P
Unbelievably complex at a micro level of neurons Modelling dendrites,
synapse, axons +
Neuron - synapse switching’ appears to be
influenced by > 50 different chemicals
Some evidence of mechanical, wireless and
Quantum effects have also been reported
Assumed
Simplicity
Erroneous
Human brain: analogue/digital computation +
memory within neurons - not approximated
by a transistor or logic gate!
My best estimate: we need ~10
6 x increase
in Super Computing Power to come close!
influenced by > 50 different chemicals
Some evidence of mechanical, wireless and
Quantum effects have also been reported
Assumed
Simplicity
Erroneous
Human brain: analogue/digital computation +
memory within neurons - not approximated
by a transistor or logic gate!
My best estimate: we need ~10
6 x increase
in Super Computing Power to come close!
Killer
ProbleM
We cannot describe, accurately, quantify,
or measure absolute intelligence in any
biological or artificial form !
“Some comparative intelligence measure
formulation is the only hope for the
problem in hand”
ProbleM
We cannot describe, accurately, quantify,
or measure absolute intelligence in any
biological or artificial form !
“Some comparative intelligence measure
formulation is the only hope for the
problem in hand”
Actuator
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
Sparse Model
Simplest possible configuration
A single and simple biological
cell or slime mould
A thermostat or light sensitive
switch
No signal/state processing
or memory
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
Sparse Model
Simplest possible configuration
A single and simple biological
cell or slime mould
A thermostat or light sensitive
switch
No signal/state processing
or memory
Actuator
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
ADDITION
OF MEMORY
Memory
M
Carnivorous plants
A programmable thermostat
It is not exactly clear if any signal
processing is necessary as a discreet
function but this, conveniently, turns
out to be unimportant !
“A degree of ‘processing’ may be
integral to the Sensor/Actuator
and the Memory function”
A
System
Environs
Sensor
S
ADDITION
OF MEMORY
Memory
M
Carnivorous plants
A programmable thermostat
It is not exactly clear if any signal
processing is necessary as a discreet
function but this, conveniently, turns
out to be unimportant !
“A degree of ‘processing’ may be
integral to the Sensor/Actuator
and the Memory function”
SIMPLE Life
CoMplex OP
No signal/state processing or memory,
no hunting/complex problem solving
capabilities - simple elements combining
to create an intelligent collective!
Dispersed random walks.
Food detection & communication
Collective/Integrated feeding
CoMplex OP
No signal/state processing or memory,
no hunting/complex problem solving
capabilities - simple elements combining
to create an intelligent collective!
Dispersed random walks.
Food detection & communication
Collective/Integrated feeding
Processor
P1
Memory
M
Processor
P2
System
Environs
Sensor
S
Actuator
A
Many species of very
simple insects
Artificial Ants capable of
solving the Travelling
Salesman Problem
PROCESSING
& MEMORY
In Nature processing and memory are
combined/distributed in the synapses -
only ‘we’ make them discrete in our
Silicon World
P1
Memory
M
Processor
P2
System
Environs
Sensor
S
Actuator
A
Many species of very
simple insects
Artificial Ants capable of
solving the Travelling
Salesman Problem
PROCESSING
& MEMORY
In Nature processing and memory are
combined/distributed in the synapses -
only ‘we’ make them discrete in our
Silicon World
IMPORTANT
REVELATION
Long term comatosed hospital patients
Can appear brain dead due to a lack of
I/O - ie Sensors and Actuators
Clinically Dead
- No eye movement
-No reflex action
-No bodily responses
REVELATION
Long term comatosed hospital patients
Can appear brain dead due to a lack of
I/O - ie Sensors and Actuators
Clinically Dead
- No eye movement
-No reflex action
-No bodily responses
IMPORTANT
CONDITIONALS
These are helpful/vital in setting the
bounds on the form of our final
solution and chosen path of analysis
Intelligence = 0 IF
P + M
S + A = 0
Intelligence ≠ 0 IF = 0
Without any I/O - Sensory/Actuator
faculty no intelligence is evident
Without any Processing or Memory
intelligence is still possible
CONDITIONALS
These are helpful/vital in setting the
bounds on the form of our final
solution and chosen path of analysis
Intelligence = 0 IF
P + M
S + A = 0
Intelligence ≠ 0 IF = 0
Without any I/O - Sensory/Actuator
faculty no intelligence is evident
Without any Processing or Memory
intelligence is still possible
System
Environs
Memory
ShortTerm
Processor
1
Actuators
Sensors
Memory
LongTerm
Processor
2
scope for ever
more complexity
More feedback/feedforward
loops create local reactive
centres and improve responses
times aka the human body
Environs
Memory
ShortTerm
Processor
1
Actuators
Sensors
Memory
LongTerm
Processor
2
scope for ever
more complexity
More feedback/feedforward
loops create local reactive
centres and improve responses
times aka the human body
Actuator
A1
System
Environs
Memory
Mlocal
Actuator
Memory
Mshort
Memory
Mlong
Processor
P21
Processor
P11
Sensors
Ultimately This
Defies analysis
More elements and loops sees
complexity overpowering our
math framework and solvability
Vis the ‘3 body problem in Cosmology
The number of feedback loops defeating
Mathematical Analysis is ≦ 5
A1
System
Environs
Memory
Mlocal
Actuator
Memory
Mshort
Memory
Mlong
Processor
P21
Processor
P11
Sensors
Ultimately This
Defies analysis
More elements and loops sees
complexity overpowering our
math framework and solvability
Vis the ‘3 body problem in Cosmology
The number of feedback loops defeating
Mathematical Analysis is ≦ 5
Actuator
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Memory
M
Processor
P2
Sensors
S
cHoice of Viable
Starting Point
A model of a biological creature
and/or autonomous robot of very
modest capabilities
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Memory
M
Processor
P2
Sensors
S
cHoice of Viable
Starting Point
A model of a biological creature
and/or autonomous robot of very
modest capabilities
Where: s, p ,m, a are complex temporal operators
that cannot in general be fully defined or detailed
Actuator
A
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Processor
P2
si
i
o
p1 si
(1 + m) p1 si
Sensors
S
.
Memory
M
Assuming A
Nomenclature
a(1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ) si
that cannot in general be fully defined or detailed
Actuator
A
Processor
P1
System
Environs
Processor
P2
si
i
o
p1 si
(1 + m) p1 si
Sensors
S
.
Memory
M
Assuming A
Nomenclature
a(1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ) si
Assumed
definition
Intelligence = Orchestrated (Directed or Forced)System Entropy
“This definition is not up for debate, as we are
exploring what it might reveal and/or imply”
definition
Intelligence = Orchestrated (Directed or Forced)System Entropy
“This definition is not up for debate, as we are
exploring what it might reveal and/or imply”
Necessary
adjustment
(Relative) Intelligence = I = IEi - EoI
As intelligences can both increase or decrease the system Entropy;
we redefine in terms of the Modular value…
NOTE: Entropy E = The information required
to exactly define the
state of the system
adjustment
(Relative) Intelligence = I = IEi - EoI
As intelligences can both increase or decrease the system Entropy;
we redefine in terms of the Modular value…
NOTE: Entropy E = The information required
to exactly define the
state of the system
Ic = I Ei - Eo I = I Ei ( si ) - Eo ( a[1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ] si ) I
Where: s, p ,m, a are complex operators that cannot,
in general, be fully defined or detailed
ENGINEERING
LICENCE APPLIED
We simply neglect/ignore/hide the
time variability of all the functions
and mask with a new formulation
Comparative
Intelligence
Where: s, p ,m, a are complex operators that cannot,
in general, be fully defined or detailed
ENGINEERING
LICENCE APPLIED
We simply neglect/ignore/hide the
time variability of all the functions
and mask with a new formulation
Comparative
Intelligence
Ic = I Ei - E[a.s ( 1 + m + p + mp ) ] I
ENGINEERING
LICENCE APPLIED
Combining similar complex
operators for the ease of
manipulation and explanation
ENGINEERING
LICENCE APPLIED
Combining similar complex
operators for the ease of
manipulation and explanation
Finally, we have something meeting
all our practical bounds and limiters
that we can work with in practice
Ic = k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P + M + P.M ) ]
System Constants
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
For P.M >> (P + M)
Shuffling AN
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
all our practical bounds and limiters
that we can work with in practice
Ic = k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P + M + P.M ) ]
System Constants
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
For P.M >> (P + M)
Shuffling AN
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
Don’t Panic - we are about to
focus on the implications
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
Shuffling AN
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
focus on the implications
Ic ~ k log2 [1 + K.S.A (1 + P.M ) ]
Shuffling AN
ENTROPIC LEAP
This resemble the Shannon-Hartley
theorem in Information Theory
A PRIMARY
IMPLICATION
We are not racing toward a singularity, and
machines are not taking over anytime soon
as people have previously projected/feared
Increasing S. P. M. A by a factor of 1000
would only see intelligence grow 10 fold due
to the logarithmic nature of intelligence !
IMPLICATION
We are not racing toward a singularity, and
machines are not taking over anytime soon
as people have previously projected/feared
Increasing S. P. M. A by a factor of 1000
would only see intelligence grow 10 fold due
to the logarithmic nature of intelligence !
EXPONENTIAL
V logarithmic
Estimated Entropic Growth
of AI capabilities
V logarithmic
Estimated Entropic Growth
of AI capabilities
AI AND THE
FUTURE?
Humanity remains the biggest threat
Accelerating technological revolution
Dystopian possibilities still haunt humans
Improves every sphere of human endeavour
Transforms the nature of work & employment
Revolutionises product design and production
AI/QAI decodes Genomic - Protein comms riddle
++++
Magnifies the kill rate of most weapons systems!
FUTURE?
Humanity remains the biggest threat
Accelerating technological revolution
Dystopian possibilities still haunt humans
Improves every sphere of human endeavour
Transforms the nature of work & employment
Revolutionises product design and production
AI/QAI decodes Genomic - Protein comms riddle
++++
Magnifies the kill rate of most weapons systems!
Humans evolved for millennia to attain a
nominal stasis - but AI is exponential - so more
equivalences and ‘supremums’ are expected
INevitAble
-100M -1M 1940 1990 2040
-10
3
-10
6
-10
9
-10
12
-10
15
-10
18
FLOPS
Human intelligence
has now ‘flat-lined’
AI has only recently reached
a visibly exponential phase
Notice this is a Computing
Operations estimate and
not an intelligence score
nominal stasis - but AI is exponential - so more
equivalences and ‘supremums’ are expected
INevitAble
-100M -1M 1940 1990 2040
-10
3
-10
6
-10
9
-10
12
-10
15
-10
18
FLOPS
Human intelligence
has now ‘flat-lined’
AI has only recently reached
a visibly exponential phase
Notice this is a Computing
Operations estimate and
not an intelligence score
Artificial General
Intelligence ( AGI)
The progression of AI is most likely going to mirror history of modern
computing with a gradual migration from ‘one task capability/expertise’ to
a ‘multi-capability/expertise’ expanding to general purpose realisations.
For computing it took ~30years, but for AI it may well be shorter as AI is
now a member of the workforce including the analysis and design teams!
“Technology influences and accelerates the creation of ever more technology”
Intelligence ( AGI)
The progression of AI is most likely going to mirror history of modern
computing with a gradual migration from ‘one task capability/expertise’ to
a ‘multi-capability/expertise’ expanding to general purpose realisations.
For computing it took ~30years, but for AI it may well be shorter as AI is
now a member of the workforce including the analysis and design teams!
“Technology influences and accelerates the creation of ever more technology”
Human-AI voice interactions now the
norm and getting better by the day!
EmergEnT
Personality
norm and getting better by the day!
EmergEnT
Personality
Critical
Thinking
Life introduces physical order into a system
Intelligence transforms information in systems
Both introduce Positive Entropy into systems
Ergo; Life and Intelligence are strongly related
“Life influences/changes its supporting environment”
“Intelligence modulates/changes the processes of life”
Thinking
Life introduces physical order into a system
Intelligence transforms information in systems
Both introduce Positive Entropy into systems
Ergo; Life and Intelligence are strongly related
“Life influences/changes its supporting environment”
“Intelligence modulates/changes the processes of life”
HYPOTHESIS
CONCATENATED
This is increasingly supported by a
growing body of biological evidence
Life => an emergent property of Complexity
Intelligence => an emergent property of Life
Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence
Complexity => an emergent property of Clustering in Chaos
Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe
CONCATENATED
This is increasingly supported by a
growing body of biological evidence
Life => an emergent property of Complexity
Intelligence => an emergent property of Life
Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence
Complexity => an emergent property of Clustering in Chaos
Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe
Thinking the right way
People fear, & complain, overlook the big gains
Vive La
difference
People fear, & complain, overlook the big gains
Vive La
difference
GAME CHANGER 2012
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
IBM Watson
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
IBM Watson
GAME CHANGER 2014
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
Considered to be impossible by philosophers
Exponential
Education
Human 5 - 20k operations/
lifetime
Networked AI/Robots >20k
operations/day
Education
Human 5 - 20k operations/
lifetime
Networked AI/Robots >20k
operations/day
Exponential
Capabilities
“AI~200M Proteins decoded in 3 months”
“Humans <100 decodes folds in decades”
Protein folding is the key to complex life
and blights such as cancer…
Capabilities
“AI~200M Proteins decoded in 3 months”
“Humans <100 decodes folds in decades”
Protein folding is the key to complex life
and blights such as cancer…
Exemplar
New Creativity
New Creativity
Exemplar
New Creativity
Criticism
It is just copying and
aping what human
composers have done !
Retort 1
You mean exactly
like human
composers do ?
Retort 2
AI has only just got
into this game that
humans have be at
for well over 3M years
New Creativity
Criticism
It is just copying and
aping what human
composers have done !
Retort 1
You mean exactly
like human
composers do ?
Retort 2
AI has only just got
into this game that
humans have be at
for well over 3M years
WHAT WE
Do KNOW
MASS
Only By Poor
Management
“Every developed and developing nation
is short of people - the UK has over 500k
vacancies that are impacting the GDP”
“The biggest challenge is transformation
- living in the past will see companies fail”
Do KNOW
MASS
Only By Poor
Management
“Every developed and developing nation
is short of people - the UK has over 500k
vacancies that are impacting the GDP”
“The biggest challenge is transformation
- living in the past will see companies fail”
Management
Challenge
Getting the right aptitude, skill set, and
experience into the right job and
support human and machine with a
continual training programme
Technology driven change is
accelerating, and it isn’t going
away fall behind and you lose
your edge, and failure follows!
Challenge
Getting the right aptitude, skill set, and
experience into the right job and
support human and machine with a
continual training programme
Technology driven change is
accelerating, and it isn’t going
away fall behind and you lose
your edge, and failure follows!
Leadership
Challenge
The ‘engineering’ of symbiotic
teams that are innovative,
flexible, and adaptable -
a simple minded ‘MBA
focus’ on efficiency &
the bottom-line will
kill the company
“Innovation & the
new has to be a
constant priority”
Challenge
The ‘engineering’ of symbiotic
teams that are innovative,
flexible, and adaptable -
a simple minded ‘MBA
focus’ on efficiency &
the bottom-line will
kill the company
“Innovation & the
new has to be a
constant priority”
Modern societies cannot
function without AI
DePendancy
Here Today
It is core to health,
wealth and care
It is prime in achieving
sustainability and equitable
living standards for ~ 8Bn people
The next big leaps will occur as AI is
networked, integrated into robotics, and
advanced sensory systems realising sentience
function without AI
DePendancy
Here Today
It is core to health,
wealth and care
It is prime in achieving
sustainability and equitable
living standards for ~ 8Bn people
The next big leaps will occur as AI is
networked, integrated into robotics, and
advanced sensory systems realising sentience
Look up Uncanny Valley
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
Features and
Forms To Come
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
Features and
Forms To Come
Features and
Forms To Come
Look up Uncanny Valley
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
Forms To Come
Look up Uncanny Valley
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-
the-uncanny-valley-4846247
https://www.simplypsychology.org/uncanny-valley.html
Emergent
NetworkS
“Things that think want to link”
And
“Thinks that link want to think”
NetworkS
“Things that think want to link”
And
“Thinks that link want to think”
ADVICE: Stop Worrying
START: Engaging/Using/Exploring ASAP
Golden Rule: If a technology
or a feature does not add
value to, or, improve your
life - then ditch it and
try something else!
START: Engaging/Using/Exploring ASAP
Golden Rule: If a technology
or a feature does not add
value to, or, improve your
life - then ditch it and
try something else!
www.petercochrane.com
Thank You
Thank You
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