Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions | Belarus Conference in Stockholm

Presented by Dzimtry Kruk during the conference "Belarus at the crossroads: The complex role of sanctions in the context of totalitarian backsliding" on April 23, 2024.

1. Selected Economic Effects of Sanctions

2. Physical volume of exports: sharp reduction, rapid
recovery, stagnation
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
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125
Jan-19
Mar-19 May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19 Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20 May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20 Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21 May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21 Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22 May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22 Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23 May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23 Nov-23
Exports, physical volume, seasonally adjusted, 2018=100
Oil"war" with
Russia
COVID
impact
Post-COVIDforeign
trade miracle
Improved access to
Ukrainian oil market
Sanctions
effects
Positive
(compensatory)
effects

3. The share of exports to Russiaincreasedconsiderably
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-17 Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
The share of exports to Russia (physical volume), %

4. Physical volume ofpotashfertilizers exports:
supply bottleneck due to logistic obstacles
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4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
Exports of potash fertilizers, thousand tones, gross volume

5. Potash fertilizers exports: weakeningmarketpowerand
inabilitytochargemarketprice
Commercial mistakes +
minor effects of
sanctions
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
Actual price of Belarusian potash fertilizers exports/ global price, %
The effects of
sanctions

6. Macro landscape: V-shaped recession and output losses
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Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Q1 2024 (e)
GDP: Actual vs. Counterfactual(2018=100)
Counterfactual: no war and sanctionsActual