Soonchang yoon

A 7-year National Strategic Research Project on PM2.5 Studies (2017-2024) in Korea

1. SCA 2017, Manila
June 16
th
, 2017
Soonchang Yoon
Korean Academy of Science and Technology
Future Earth Korea

2. 1.Public concern on fine dust (PM2.5) and their impact on
human health in Korea, which became one of the hottest
campaign pledges of the presidential election, last
month in Korea.
2.Status and analysis of PM2.5 pollution in Korea
3.Contents of the National Strategic Project
4.International collaboration in Asia and Pacific Region
under Future Earth
In this presentation I will talk about :

3. Air pollution causes 14,000 additional deaths a year in Korea:
(reported on June 12
th
)

4. Report says:
-The number of premature deaths in South Korea caused by air pollution
was tallied at 13,703 in 2013 in the IHME report, said Prof. Cheong Hae-
kwanon Monday, citing a report by the US-based Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluation
-The figure translates into 4.5 percent of the country's entire deaths in
the reported year or one every 20 deaths per year resulting from polluted
air.
-The main culprit was the emission of dangerous air particles, known as
PM2.5, which was responsible for 12,037 deaths comprising 4,274 deaths
from lung cancer, 1,901 ones from ischemic heart disease and 5,862 ones
from cerebral stroke.
-The OECD projection said that in South Korea, there will be an
estimated 1,109 deaths per 1 millionpeople caused by air pollution in
2060, about three times the 359 deaths reported in 2010. South Korea's
proportion of air pollution-related economic losses in its gross domestic
product was projected at 0.63 percent, higher than Japan with 0.42
percent and the United States with 0.21 percent. (Yonhap)

5. -MOE invested more that 3 billion US$ to install DPF filters or to
replace diesel engines to LNG engines free for 10 years, 2005~2014.
-MOE regulated to cut down the emissions of PM
10, SOx,NOx and
VOCsduring the same period.
-All diesel buses arereplaced to CNG buses
-All these measures improved air quality in Seoul steadilyuntil 2012.
However, it became worse again starting 2013.
-OECDwarned mortalitycaused by air pollution in Korea will become
the highest among the OCED countries in 2060.
-The President ordered Ministers to make a concrete strategy to
resolve the fine dust problem at a Cabinet meeting in May, 2016.
Air quality managementin Seoul and vicinity since 2005:

6. 1. Apr 2001 –Feb 2002 [Kim, 2006]
2. Apr 2001 –Feb 2002 [Kang et al., 2006]
3. 2003 –2004 [Kim, 2006]
4. Mar 2003 –Feb 2005 [Kim et al., 2007]
5. 2003 –2004 [Kim, 2006]
6. Mar 2003 –Feb 2005 [Kim et al., 2007]
7. Winter 2005 [Jung et al., 2009; Dec 2005 –Nov 2007]
8. Spring 2006 [Jung et al., 2009]
9. Summer 2006 [Jung et al., 2009]
10. Fall 2006 [Jung et al., 2009]
11. Winter 2006 [Jung et al., 2009]
12. Spring 2007 [Jung et al., 2009]
13. Summer 2007 [Jung et al., 2009]
14. Fall 2007 [Jung et al., 2009]
15. Jan 2009 –Dec 2009 [Park et al., 2012]
16. Jan 2010 –Dec 2010 [Shon et al., 2012]
17. Fall 2012 [KIST]
18. Winter 2013 [KIST]
19. Spring 2013 [KIST]
20. Summer 2013 [KIST]
12
3
5
4
6
11
10
7
89
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
18
20
↓ ↑
EC Mass Concentration (
μ
g m
-
3
)
Year TrendofPM
2.5elementalcarbon(EC)concentrationsinSeoul
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (in print)

7. Trend of PM
10concentration at Seoul 2005-2015
Period : 2005-2015

8. Trend of SO
2concentration at Seoul 2005-2015
Period : 2005-2015

9. Trend of NO
2concentration at Seoul 2005-2015,and emission rate 2000-2013
Diesel
Gasoline
2009
2009

10. Here we combine a comprehensive set of novel and state-of-the-art offline analytical
approaches and statistical techniques to investigate the chemical nature and
sources of particulate matter at urban locations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou
and Xi’anduring January 2013.We find that the severe haze pollution event was
driven to a large extent by secondary aerosol formation, which contributed 30–77
per cent and 44–71 per cent (average for all four cities) of PM2.5 and of organic
aerosol, respectively.
On the average, the contribution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and
secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA)are found to be of similar importance (SOA/SIA
ratios range from 0.6 to 1.4). Our results suggest that, in addition to mitigating
primary particulate emissions, reducing the emissions of secondary aerosol
precursors from, for example, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is likely to
be important for controlling China’s PM2.5 levels and for reducing the
environmental, economic and health impacts resulting from particulate pollution.
Nature 2014. 10

12. -Former President M.B. Lee’s government (2008-2013)
promoted the sales of diesel passenger cars with a catch
praise “Clean Diesel” because they meet Euro 5 emission
standard and emit less CO
2than gasoline cars
-However, after the disclosure of Volkswagen’s cheating
of emission control devices in 2016, the NIER/MOE
examined on road emission test for 20 models of
passenger cars in the market, and found that only one
model passed the emission standard, and that most other
models emitted 5 to 10 times of NOx standard.
NOx emissions from diesel cars :

13. No. of new vehicles registered depending on fuel types
519
541
679
853 843 860
723
656662
681
239
223
177
225 229
268
339
403
528
684
174
154 161
135
156
145
157 155
140
124
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gasoline
Diesel
LPG
Electronic
Hybrid
No. of registered
vehicles(ⅹ1000)
per
year
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
K
K

14. 0.07
0.13
0.31
0.330.33
0.360.360.37
0.390.41
0.43
0.48
0.52
0.700.700.71
0.78
0.86
1.36
1.67
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
Diesel vehicle road driving test(NOx) -2016
NOx(g/km)
:Lab test emission standard (0.08g/km)
Courtesy of NIER, MOE

15. Meteorological conditions :
-Recent studies show that the wind circulation is
weakened in recent years, which means that the air
pollutants poorly ventilate but accumulate, causing
severe smog/haze.
-Some other studies show that more frequent severe
hazy daysare expected due to the climate change.

16. Science Advances 2017. 3
-The East China Plains (ECP) region experienced the worst haze pollution on
record for January in 2013. We show that the unprecedented haze event is due
to the extremely poor ventilationconditions, which had not been seen in the
preceding three decades.
-Statistical analysis suggests that the extremely poor ventilation conditions are
linked to Arctic sea ice loss in the preceding autumn and extensive boreal snowfall
in the earlier winter. We identify the regional circulation mode that leads to
extremely poor ventilation over the ECP region. Climate model simulations
indicate that boreal cryosphericforcing enhances the regional circulation mode of
poor ventilation in the ECP region and provides conducive conditions for extreme
haze such as that of 2013.
-Consequently, extreme haze events in winter will likely occur at a higher
frequency in Chinaas a result of the changing boreal cryosphere, posing difficult
challenges for winter haze mitigation but providing a strong incentive for
greenhouse gas emission reduction.

17. -Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze
episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies weakened north-westerlies
in the mid-troposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere.
How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we
project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of
conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate
change.
-The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including
an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster
warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global
greenhouse gas emissionscan contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze
more frequently.
2017. 3

18. Four goals of the National Strategic Research Project :
I. Source Evaluation
II. Real-time Forecast
III. Emission Control
IV. Exposure Control

19. I. Source Evaluation II. Real-time Forecast

20. III. Emission Control IV. Exposure Control

21. 3
Support for policy making, industrialization,
global & regional cooperation for PM
2.5Solution
based on Science and Technology

22. Fine dust (PM
2.5) issue is a GOOD example of Future Earth
Scientists for
source apportionment,
chamber experiment,
aircraft campaign,
PM modeling, sensors,
emission inventory
Engineers and
Industry for
emission control,
air cleaners, masks
etc.
Medical scientists for
health effect vs exposure
Policy making for
coal power plants,
diesel cars,
impose off driving day
Decision making:
governments,
scientists, economists,
industry, citizens, etc.

23. Thanks for attention!