Temperature Check: �How New National Climate Plans (NDCs) Are Measuring Up and What's Next

Hear from experts on how well new NDCs are stacking up – both to curb emissions and protect communities from increasingly severe climate impacts – and what to look out for next. Speakers assess the plans submitted thus far and also share what to expect from key forthcoming submissions, such as those from China and the European Union, as well as consider the next steps in driving progress toward a net-zero future.

1. Temperature Check: How New National Climate Plans (NDCs) Are Measuring Up and What's Next 19 February 2025 www.wri.org/ndcs

2. Speakers and Moderator Taryn Fransen Director of Science, Research, and Data, Global Climate Program , World Resources Institute Moderator Li Shuo Director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Linda Kalcher Executive Director, Strategic Perspectives Jamal Srouji Senior Associate , World Resources Institute Clea Schumer Research Associate, World Resources Institute

3. How New NDCs are Measuring Up

4. Projected Temperature Rise of 2.6°C – 3.1°C Under Current Policies and Commitments UNEP (2024) Emissions Gap Report 2024 4

5. www.wri.org/ndcs 5 The Ratchet Mechanism of the Paris Agreement

6. NDC Tracker NDCTracker.org www.climatewatchdata.org/ndc-tracker 6

7. 2030 and 2035 Emissions Reduction Targets from G20 Countries www . climatewatchdata . org / ndc-tracker 7 Country Reference year 2030 Emissions Reduction Target 2035 Emissions Reduction Target Net-Zero Target Year Brazil 2005 53.1% 59-66% 2050 Canada 2005 40-45% 45-50% 2050 Japan 2013 46% 60% 2050 United Kingdom 1990 68% 81% 2050 United States of America 2005 50-52% 61-66% 2050

8. Country Comparisons 2035 Additional Emissions Reductions Compared to 2030 Note: For countries that present their emissions reduction targets as a range, we compare the higher-emission end of the range, assuming the NDCs are fully achieved. 8

9. Country Comparisons 2035 Additional Emissions Reductions Compared to 2030 9 Note: For countries that present their emissions reduction targets as a range, we compare the higher-emission end of the range, assuming the NDCs are fully achieved.

10. Source: ClimateWatch NDC Tracker 10 Insights from the 15 Newly Submitted NDCs 14 Included 2035 economy-wide GHG emissions reduction target 13 Have previously committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 13 Have 2035 that would yield lower emissions than their 2030 emissions reduction target 11 Strengthened adaptation action in their new NDC 1 Strengthened their 2030 emissions reduction target

11. How Are Countries Advancing Sectoral Action in NDCs? Strong pledges alone are not enough— robust policies and implementation strategies are essential for real progress. Embedding sectoral actions within broader economy-wide targets is crucial for implementation , as countries must define how specific measures will contribute to overall emissions reductions. Incorporating sector-specific strategies in NDCs also provides clear signals to businesses, investors, and policymakers. A positive trend has emerged, with more countries detailing sectoral actions in their NDCs to cut emissions and enhance resilience to climate impacts. Countries have taken varied approaches to integrating sectoral actions in NDCs, including highlighting existing policies, setting 2035 sectoral targets, and committing to publish implementation plans for mitigation and adaptation. www.wri.org/ndcs 11

12. A few examples... Brazil committed to update its national climate strategy, breaking it down into 16 sectoral adaptation plans and seven sectoral mitigation plans, which are expected to be finalized by mid-2025. The United Kingdom included its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan , which aims to achieve a clean electricity by 2030. The NDC also highlights the Warm Homes Plan , designed to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings, and reaffirms the country’s commitment to phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030, a move that will drive emissions reductions in the transport sector. Switzerland included indicative targets per sector as set in the Climate and Innovation Act, for example by cutting emissions by 66% in the buildings sector and 41% in the transport sector by 2035 below 1990 levels. 12

13. Photo: IISD (2020) 13 Looking Ahead More NDC submissions are expected, with major emitters like the EU and China set to submit their plans this year While many countries missed the February moment, strong, well-crafted NDCs later in the year are far better than rushed, weak ones now . While all countries must do their part, G20 countries must lead in cutting emissions and transitioning key sectors. Some developing countries must also receive adequate finance and support to achieve their NDCs. Countries are now expected to submit their NDCs before UN General Assembly in September allowing time for international scrutiny ahead of COP30 in Brazil.

14. Looking Backwards and Ahead: Strategies for Evaluating NDCs 14

15. Two Approaches for Assessing NDCs

16. 1. Looking Backwards: Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) BTRs are submitted by countries every two years under the Paris Agreement to facilitate transparency and build trust. The first reports were due in December 2024, and, to date, 94 Parties to the Paris Agreement have put forward their submissions. BTRs contain a wealth of information which can be used to assess NDC progress, including GHG emissions and removals trends, progress toward policies and measures that support implementation of the NDC, and projections of future emissions based on different policy scenarios. In this way, BTRs can be understood as countries’ “NDC report cards” – they are backwards-looking tools assessing how far countries have come in implementing existing NDC targets and where implementation gaps exist. 16

17. 2. Looking Ahead: Lenses for Assessing Ambition BTRs tell us about how implementation of commitments within prior NDCs is going. But, as new NDCs are shared, we also need to be equipped with tools to assess whether they go far enough. As a first order measure, we can hone in on the topline emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2035 contained in new NDCs and ask: are they ambitious? The answer to this question depends on how “ambitious” is defined… 17 WRI - Forthcoming

18. 2. Looking Ahead: Lenses for Assessing Ambition Different corners of the climate community use different methods and have developed different benchmarks to define what an “ambitious” NDC target would look like for specific countries. These methods vary with respect to the end-goal for which they are optimizing. For example, benchmarks may come from: 1.5°C-aligned, least-cost pathways 1.5°C-aligned, fair-share pathways Bottom-up, feasibility studies Modelled pathways to a country’s own net-zero target Straight lines to a country’s own net-zero target 18 WRI - Forthcoming

19. Country Spotlight: Brazil

20. Approach 1: What Does Brazil’s BTR Say About NDC Progress? All data per Brazil’s BTR, available on UNFCCC website 20 NDC Report Card Country: Brazil Policies & Measures: Brazil reported 7 policies which support implementation of the NDC, noting that these do not represent the totality of country efforts. All 7 have started implementation, targeting the energy (57%), LULUCF (29%), and agriculture (14%) sectors. Emissions Trends & NDC Progress: Target Transparency: Brazil’s mitigation target is clearly reported in the BTR as both (1) a percent reduction from 2005 and (2) the absolute emissions level associated with that reduction. Brazil reports progress towards both 2025 and 2030 targets .

21. Approach 2: Do Brazil’s Topline Targets Go Far Enough Under Different Lenses for Assessing Ambition? 21 Brazil’s current NDC targets aim for a ~53% reduction fro m 2005 emissions levels by 2030 and a 59-67% reduction by 2035. Drawing straight lines to Brazil’s 2050 net-zero target suggest that the country’s emissions would need to decline by 43-56% from 2005 levels by 2030 and 57-67% from 2005 levels by 2035. These benchmarks are roughly consistent with Brazil’s near-term targets. WRI - Forthcoming

22. 22 But all other lenses for assessing ambition find that Brazil’s 2030 and 2035 targets could be strengthened. 1.5°C-aligned, least cost pathways, for example, model the country’s GHG emissions falling to 0.15-0.36 GtCO 2 e by 2035, while a fair-share approach developed by Observatório do Clima shows equally deep cuts, with GHG emissions declining to 0.17 GtCO 2 e in the same year. WRI - Forthcoming Approach 2: Continued

23. China’s NDC: Charting the path forward Li Shuo , Director of China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute

24. China Snapshot: Carbon Emissions Trajectory China’s emissions stabilized in 2024 due to a significant increase of non-fossil energy but did not decline as energy consumption grew at an abnormally rapid rate. China’s CO2 output in 2024 grew by an estimated 0.8% year-on-year.

25. China Snapshot: Renewable Energy According to China's National Energy Administration, China added around 277GW of solar and 79GW of wind power capacity in 2024, both numbers setting new records China’s renewable energy capacity is expected to accelerate in 2025, and with industrial electricity demand growth likely declining, this could lead to further emissions reductions and possibly an emissions peak. Government stimulus could trigger another period of industrial growth, which could influence China’s emissions trajectory.

26. The Question of Coal In 2021, Xi Jinping pledged to “ strictly control ” new coal power capacity. In the first half of 2024 (H1), China reduced coal power permits by 83% compared to H1 2023, permitting only 9 gigawatts (GW) in H1 2024 In the second half of 2024 (H2), coal didn’t surge but it did rebound after the hiatus in the first half of 2024. H2 saw a total of 67 GW approved and 94 GW of new construction starts. It appears that projects that are approved do move ahead.

27. What has China committed to? In 2020, China committed to peaking its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 . In 2021 the updated NDC that China submitted to the UNFCCC reflected these goals. Other updates included: Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030”, up from “around 2030 and making efforts to peak earlier”; Lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by “over 65%” in 2030 compared to 2005 levels, (up from “by 60–65%”); Share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to “around 25%” in 2030, (up from “around 20%”); and Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic metres in 2030 from the 2005 level, (previously 4.5 billion cubic metres). Bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030. (Achieved)

28. Keeping 1.5 in sight To align with 1.5C, China’s all greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced from an immediate peak by at least 30% by 2035. The scenarios included in the UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report require even larger reductions, with a median of more than 60%. Steel, power, and cement sectors are three sectors which have strong emissions reduction potential. Graph: Lauri Myllyvirta, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute

29. What level of ambition is needed? Overall: To align with 1.5C, China’s greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced from their peak by at least 30% by 2035. The NDC will also be the first to specify China’s post-peaking emissions trajectory. The NDC should focus on all sectors of the economy and all greenhouse gases including methane. The dominance of the “ new three industries ”: solar power, EVs, and batteries were the focal points of investment which drove China’s clean energy initiative. The economic growth associated with these industries is attractive and could lead to further fostering and scaling. The coal trend will be important to watch as it will influence China meeting its emission targets. Will coal consumption continue to increase? Will approvals continue? The timing of China’s NDC announcement is unclear. The Chinese leadership may want to understand the new geopolitical landscape better before their announcement.

30. The role of the international community How should China provide support to multilateralism in light of the US Paris withdrawal? A possible window to EU-China engagement. COP+ other platforms to spur engagement/pressure for ambition.

31. Thank you!

32. EU NDC – snapshot 19 February 2025 Linda Kalcher, Executive Director

33. Benefits of a net 90% climate target by 2040 with a Clean Industrial Deal 33 Save over €850 billion of gas, oil and coal imports between 2025 and 2040. Create an additional 2 million jobs in net-zero industries by 2040. Cuts energy bills for households by 2/3 by 2035. Requires €668 billion of additional investment over the next 15 years.

34. EU NDC: politics and timing Politics: Massive delay on EU’s NDC largely due to European elections and plans to approve 2040 climate target first out of domestic reasons Wave of populist andfar -right attacks on “climate” create lasting challenges European Commission frames climate and competitiveness a reinforcing each other (cleantech production, circularity, energy security, prosperity and growth plan…) Many countries and political parties back net 90% by 2040 (Denmark, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands,…) Big uncertainty on new German government, French dynamics, Polish presidential elections and Italian opposition to ”climate” agenda Timing Review of the European Climate Law kicks off the debate on 2040 that informs the 2035 target Likely conclusions in June on 2040 and 2035 “milestone”, NDC submission thereafter

35. Thank you. Linda Kalcher [email protected] StrategicPerspectives.eu

36. Thank You. Visit our website on NDCs – www.wri.org/ndcs