The Housing Conundrum

Ben Page, Chief Exec, Ipsos MORI presented these slides on public opinion on the housing market in the UK for a Jones Lang LaSalle event in London on 3 November 2014.

1. @benatipsosmori
The Housing
Conundrum
Public opinion
& what it means
4
th
November, 2014
#JLL

2. Our latest results for JLL
Fieldwork conducted
10-13 October 2014
1,009 GB adults 16-75
conducted online
weighted to national profile

3. Irrational exuberance over the economy?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Index (get better minus get worse)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
+4
-46
-56
-48
+23
-64
+12
+34
Q. Do you think that the long-term economic condition of the economy will improve, stay the same or get worse?

4. House price sentiment mirrors economy
+9
-2
+7
+19
+15 +15
+20
+33
+40
+64 +66 +65 +66
+62
-28
-32
-48
-14
-32
-9 -6
-19
0
+23
+15
+23
+29
+24
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Apr-11Oct-11Jan-12Mar-12Jun-12Oct-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jul-14Sep-14
HPO
EOI
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse
Q.Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO)
Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
(EOI)
Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI
(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)
Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Confidence Tracker

5. And as market ‘cools’, housing’s salience dips?
Year
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
% mentioning housing as
among/the most important
issue(s) facing GB
UK average house price
Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month
Sources: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Halifax House Price Index (All(Mon)NSA)
£67,775
(Mar‘97)
£187,018
(Sep’14)
6%
(Mar’97)
10%
(Oct’14)
£200,578
(Jul‘07)
16%
(Jul’07)
% mentioning
£ UK average
house price

6. Public say prices are too high Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree….
“House prices are currently too high”

45

% strongly
agree

% tend
to agree

% tend to agree (4%)
% strongly disagree (1%)

33

14

Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
% neither
agree/disagree

7. Seen as most important housing issue Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Q. Which, if any, of the following do you see as the 2 or 3 most important problems facing the housing market in Britain
today?

Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
House
prices are
too high

47%

Size of
deposits

31%

Lack of
social housing

30%

Not enough new
homes being built

20%
Rents
too high

28%

Too many people from
abroad buying homes

21%

Housing benefit
changes

14%

Banks not giving
out mortgages

15%
Stamp duty is too high

14%
Big homes
occupied
by 1 or 2 people

5%
Too many
second homes

13%
Not enough schemes for
renters to get on ladder

12%

8. Only… Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
8%
identify prices and supply as top issues
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL

9. Better link prices & supply in London?
47
39
37
14
7
5
5
3
2
1
1
Over-population/ immigration
Planning/ ability to build/ land availability
Economic backdrop/ lack of financing
Local government policy (e.g. housing allocation)
Renting - poor landlords
Poor housing choice
Poor housing quality
%
•Source: Ipsos MORI/London Councils
Base: Londoners agree there is a housing crisis in London (829). 18 - 29 Oct 2013

Government policy incl. welfare reform & legacy of Right to Buy
Affordability of housing/house prices
Buy to let/people buying properties and not living in them
17
Q. And what, if anything, do you think are the main causes of the current housing crisis in London? (spontaneous)
Lack of building/housing supply/ investment

10. “The nearest the British have to a religion” (#2)
Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent accommodation, or would you choose to buy? % Buy
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y Overall
Aspiration is strong
Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSAS (NatCen)
19

11. Kids recognise problem
Q. Do you think it will be easier or harder for you to buy your own house than it was for your parents?
40%
16%
29%
16%
Harder for me
Easier for me
About the
same
Don’t know /
not stated
Base: 2,734 11-16 year olds
Source: Ipsos MORI Young People Omnibus (2014)

12. 34%

23%

22%
16%
4%

Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for Britain’?
Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013
% agree
% neither/nor
% disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing
56% own/occ’
58% renters
Consensus on challenge of rising prices

13. Q To what extent do you agree or disagree… ‘Rising house prices are a good thing for me personally’?
Base: 1,970 British adults 13-23 September 2013
% agree
% neither/nor
% disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing
24%

18%

28%
19%
10%

41% own/occ’
9% renters
…but more divisive in personal terms

14. And JLL survey
found disquiet abut lending
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree….“it has been made too
difficult for people to get mortgages these days”
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
28%
38%
17%
9%
3
5
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Neither agree nor
disagree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
Agree 66%
Disagree 11%
Mortgage holders
Agree 70%
Disagree 13%
Overall

15. 9%
22%
48%
60%
Up to £50 Up to £100 Up to £200 Up to £300
Some low tipping points – interest rates Base: 651 mortgage-holders,16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Q. What is the smallest amount your monthly mortgage repayments would have to increase for them to become
unaffordable? (Mortgage holders)
Increase per month
% who would find this
increase unaffordable

16. The supply conundrum

17. The problem/solution conundrum Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Top 4 of 7
Building more
homes which are
affordable

35%

Reducing
the no. of
empty
homes

32%

Lack of
social housing

30%

61%
agree we are not
building enough
homes nationally
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate
the extent to which you agree…
“We are not building enough homes to keep up
with what is needed”
Q. Which, 1 or 2, if any, do you think should be the
highest priority for the
Government to deal with?
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Making it
easier for
FTBs…
28%
Improving
run down
estates
27%

18. Solution more contentious than problem
71%
84%
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree…
Con Lab
… there is a housing
crisis in Britain?
… more new
homes need to be
built in the local area? 44%
60%
80%
Own/occ’ Renters
47%
62%
% agree
79%
Base: 1,015 British adults 12-14 January 2013 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

19. The central/local conundrum Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
61%
agree “we are not
building enough
homes nationally” 24%
of these do not agree
“we are not building
enough homes locally”
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Includes ‘Neither/nor’ and ‘Don’t know’

20. The quantity/quality conundrum
[Respondents were given the estimated number of new homes London needs (32,000 new homes a year*)]
•Base: 500 online interviews with adult (16+) residents in Greater London, 24-27 May 2013
•Source: Ipsos MORI for Berkeley Group
Build fewer homes with higher
design standard
38%
Build more homes with lower
design standards

28%
Q. “Thinking now about getting the balance right between the quality and the amount of new housing, which,
if either, of the two options do you think would be best for London?”

21. New builds have an image problem?
Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax
More
expensive
(47% think 6%+)
Smaller
Source: Shelter

22. The Government/market conundrum
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16-75, online,
10-13 October 2014
Base: All non-owning/mortgaged 18-29 year olds who think
getting on the property ladder is difficult (1,748), GB, 20-27
March 2013
Source: ComRes/BBC


60%
disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI/ JLL
Q. Who or what do you think is most responsible for
young people finding it difficult to get onto the
property ladder?
35%
Q. Thinking about Britain in general, please indicate
the extent to which you agree…
“There isn’t much that British governments can do
to encourage the building of new homes”
Size of deposits
33% Property prices
11% The Government
11% The banks

23. The lead/follow conundrum Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online),
30 May-4 June 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH
Strongly
agree
27%
16%
13%
Tend to
agree
Tend to
disagree
Strongly
disagree
28% 40%
12%
30%
Neither
agree nor
disagree
30%
58%
Q. To what extent would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area?

24. Q. To what extent would do you support or oppose the building of new homes…


Opinion very conditional and local
22%
35%
..in the district …in the local area
…if meant young
people/families
could stay
10%
…if meant building on
‘greenfield’ i.e.
undeveloped land
70%
Base: 902 residents, Dec 2011-Feb 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI for Canterbury City Council
% opposition

25. The challenge for managers and leaders–
TRY SOMETHING NEW

26. @benatipsosmori