TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ALONG THE GUJARAT COAST, INDIA

The great Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) of 26th December, 2004, was rated as the world’s second largest recorded earthquake. The tsunami was considered as one of the deadliest natural hazards in the history, killing over 225,000 people in fourteen countries. In response to this disaster, the government of India took up the task of establishing an Early Warning System for Tsunamis. The Makran coast is extremely vulnerable to tsunamis and earthquakes due to the presence of three very active tectonic plates namely, the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. On 28 November 1945 at 21:56 UTC, a massive Makran earthquake generated a destructive tsunami in the Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The tsunami was responsible for loss of life and great destruction along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran, India and Oman. In this paper NAMI-DANCE numerical model has been used to simulate 1945 Makran tsunamigenic source.

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International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)
Volume 6, Issue 11, Nov 2015, pp. 89-96, Article ID: IJCIET_06_11_010
Available online at
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=11
ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
© IAEME Publication
___________________________________________________________________________
TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
ALONG THE GUJARAT COAST, INDIA
V. M. Patel
Civil Engineering Department, Government Polytechnic,
Palanpur – 385001, Gujarat, India
M. B. Dholakia
L.D. College of Engineering, Ahmedabad-380015, Gujarat, India
A. P. Singh
Institute of Seismological Research, Raisan, Gandhinagar- 382 009, Gujarat, India
ABSTRACT
The great Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) of 26th December, 2004, was
rated as the world’s second largest recorded earthquake. The tsunami was
considered as one of the deadliest natural hazards in the history, killing over
225,000 people in fourteen countries. In response to this disaster, the
government of India took up the task of establishing an Early Warning System
for Tsunamis. The Makran coast is extremely vulnerable to tsunamis and
earthquakes due to the presence of three very active tectonic plates namely,
the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. On 28 November 1945 at 21:56
UTC, a massive Makran earthquake generated a destructive tsunami in the
Northern Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The tsunami was responsible for
loss of life and great destruction along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran, India and
Oman. In this paper NAMI-DANCE numerical model has been used to
simulate 1945 Makran tsunamigenic source. In this study tsunami early
warning system is try to develop by modeling of various tsunami scenarios and
the worst case detect for location along coastal area of Gujarat, India. At the
time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database for emergency
management of disaster and early warns to coastal community.
Key words: Tsunami Early Warning, Worst Case, Coast of Gujarat
Cite this Article: V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh. Tsunami
Early Warning System along the Gujarat Coast, India. International Journal of
Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(11), 2015, pp. 89-96.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=6&IType=11

2. V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 90 [email protected]
1. INTRODUCTION
Earthquakes similar in magnitude to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake could occur in an
area beneath the Arabian Sea at the Makran subduction zone, according to recent
research published in Geophysical Research Letters. The Makran subduction zone is
potentially capable of producing major earthquakes, up to magnitude Mw 8.7-9.2
(Smith et al., 2013). In this study tsunami early warning system is try to develop by
modeling of various tsunami scenarios and the worst case detect for location along
coastal area of Gujarat, India. At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from
the database for emergency management of disaster and early warns to coastal
community. The giant tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, claiming
more than 225,000 lives (Titov et al. 2005; Geist et al. 2006; Okal & Synolakis 2008,
Singh et al. 2012), has emphasized the urgent need for tsunami early warning systems
for various vulnerable coastlines around the world, especially for those neighbouring
the Indian Ocean. The second deadliest tsunami prior to 2004 in South Asia occurred
on 28 November 1945 (Heck 1947; Dominey-Howes et al. 2007; Heidarzadeh et al.
2007; Jaiswal et al. 2009; Hoffmann et al. 2013). It originated off the southern coast
of Pakistan and was destructive in the Northern Arabian Sea and caused fatalities as
far away as Mumbai (Berninghausen 1966; Quittmeyer & Jacob 1979; Ambraseys &
Melville 1982; Heidarzadeh et al. 2008; Jaiswal et al. 2009). Several researchers have
different estimates about the location of the earthquake epicentre. By recalculating the
seismic parameters of the 1945 earthquake, Byrne et al. (1992) suggested that the
epicentre was at 25.15º N and 63.48º E, which is used in the present study.
2. DATA USED AND TSUNAM I MODELING
In the present study, 6 tsunami forecast stations were selected for output of tsunami
simulation along the coast of India. Most of the tsunami forecast stations were
selected in such a way that sea depth is less than 10.0 m to better examine the tsunami
effect (Onat & Yalciner 2012). The bathymetry topography database for tsunami
modeling is developed from GEBCO 30 sec. The bound coordinates are selected 55° -
76° E longitudes and 10°– 30° N latitudes. The rupture parameters, as provided by
Byrne et al. (1992), were used to model the source of 1945 earthquake and finite
difference model. The most significant tsunamigenic earthquake in recent times was
that of 28 November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.3 (Mw),
used for numerical modeling. In order to assess the impact of tsunami along the
Western cost of India, simulation were performed for each potential source (I, II, III,
IV, V, VI,VII) for varying plausible range of strike angles , while other parameters
such as dip and rake angles, and failure depth, were maintained constant table 1.
Table 1 The rupture parameter of 1945 Makran earthquake
Source
Epicenter of
Earthquake
Fault
length
Fault
width
Strike
angle
Rake
angle
Dip
angle
Slip
magnitude
Focal
depth
Momen
t
Uplift
Latitude Longitude (km) (km) ° ° ° (m) (km) (N m) (m)
Source-I 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 190 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-II 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 200 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-III 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 210 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-IV 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 220 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-V 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 230 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-VI 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 240 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3
Source-VII 25.15° N 63.48° E 200 100 250 90 15 7 15 4.2x10
21
3

3. Tsunami Early Warning System Along The Gujarat Coast, India
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In this study, the NAMI DANCE was used for simulation and efficient
visualization of tsunamis, and understanding and investigation of tsunami generation
and propagation mechanisms. This code is developed by Profs. Andrey Zaytsev,
Ahmet Yalciner, Anton Chernov, Efim Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin in
collaboration with Ocean Engineering Research Center, Middle East Technical
University, Turkey and Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Science,
Russia, especially for tsunami modelling (Yalciner et al. 2006b). The initial wave
amplitudes (elevation and depression) for each source was computed using Okada’s
(1985) method, for these source alternatives are also given in figure 1. Initial wave
amplitudes (both positive and negative) are almost the same for all source
alternatives: the water elevation in the source is about 3 m, and the depression is about
1 m.

Figure 1 Initial seafloor deformation for seven source alternatives
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Tsunami snapshots show that the 1945 Makran event affected all the neighboring
countries including Iran, Oman, Pakistan, and India (Figure 2). Tsunami snapshots
(Figure 2) show the estimated wave propagation at t= 0, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150
minutes after the tsunamigenic earthquake, respectively. It is also observed that the
distance from epicenter to Mumbai is less than Goa, but the arrival time of the first
tsunami wave at the Mumbai is more than Goa. It could be due to the fact that
Mumbai offshore is shallower that Goa and also due to the directivity of tsunami
wave propagation. It is well known that most of the tsunami’s energy travels
perpendicular to the strike of the fault which is due to directivity (Ben-Menahem and
Rosenman 1972; Singh et al., 2012, Patel et al., 2014).
The spatial distributions of maximum positive amplitudes of tsunami wave are
presented in figure 3 (a-g) for seven source alternatives. Simulation results of
maximum positive amplitude (table 2) and arrival time of first wave (table 3) clearly
indicate the worse case at different gauges location along western part of India.
Simulation results from figure 3, table 3 and table 4, it is clear that source-II, III, IV
are worst case for (Kutch, Okha and Dwarka); source-IV, V ,VI are worst case for

4. V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh
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(Porbandar, and Mumbai); and source-V,VI, VII are worst case for Goa, along
western coast of India. Tsunami early warning system is try to develop by modeling
of various tsunami scenarios and the worst case detect for location along coastal area
of Gujarat, India. At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database
for emergency management of disaster and early warns to coastal community. The
simulated results are corroborated with the previous researchers in the same region
(Page et al., 1979; Ambraseys and Melville, 1982; Heidarzadeh et al., 2008).



Figure 2 Results of the tsunami generation and propagation modeling
Table 2 Maximum positive amplitude by variation in strike angle

Table 3 Arrival time of first wave by variation in strike angle

5. Tsunami Early Warning System Along The Gujarat Coast, India
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a.

b.

c.

d.

6. V. M. Patel, M. B. Dholakia and A. P. Singh
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 94 [email protected]
f.

g.

h.
Figure 3: Spatial distributions of maximum positive amplitudes for seven different
source alternatives
4. CONCLUSION
The use of numerical modeling to determine the potential run-ups and inundation
from a local or distant tsunami is recognized as useful and important tool, since data
from past tsunamis are usually insufficient to plan future disaster mitigation and
management plans. It is well know that tsunami early warning system involves critical
analysis of historical tsunamigenic events, tsunami generation, propagation,
innundation and amplification. The criteria for generation early warning system are
based on the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake, travel time (i.e. time taken by
the tsunami wave to reach the particular coast), run-up and likely inundation.
NAMIDANCE numerical model has been used to estimate travel time and run-up
height for a particular earthquake. Since the model cannot be run at the time of an
event, due to large computing time as well as due to non-availability of required fault
parameters in real-time, a database of pre-run scenarios is essential. In this study
tsunami early warning system is try to develop by modeling of various tsunami

7. Tsunami Early Warning System Along The Gujarat Coast, India
http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 95 [email protected]
scenarios and the worst case detect for location along coastal area of Gujarat, India.
At the time of event, the closest scenario is picked from the database for emergency
management of disaster and early warns to coastal community.
5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank Profs Andrey Zaytsev, Ahmet Yalciner, Anton Chernov, Efim
Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin for providing NAMI-DANCE software and for their
valuable assistance in tsunami numerical modelling of this study. Profs. Nobuo Shuto,
Costas Synolakis, Emile Okal, Fumihiko Imamura are acknowledged for invaluable
endless collaboration. The VMP is grateful to Dr. B. K. Rastogi, Director General,
Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) for permission to use of ISR library and
other resource materials. APS is thankful to Director General, ISR, for permission and
encouragement to conduct such studies for the benefit of science and society.
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AUTHOR’S BIOGRAPHY
VIJENDRAKUMAR M. PATEL received the B.E. Civil
Engineering, M.E. Civil Engineering and Ph.D. in Engineering &
Technology (Thesis Submitted). He published more than 20
research papers in reputed SCI Journal, International Journals and
International/National Conferences. He has presented many
research papers in International/National Conferences/
Symposiums. He has more than 10 years of research and academic
experience at Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Ganpat
University, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University (PDPU) and
Government Polytechnic. He has supervised many PG students.