Wilfried Winiwarter - Implementing nitrogen pollution control pathways in the GAINS model.pdf

This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.

1. Implementing nitrogen pollution control
pathways in the GAINS model
Wilfried Winiwarter
OECD Environmental Outlook workshop
«Modelling The Triple Planetary Crisis: Impacts And Policies»
Paris, February 19, 2024

2. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Overview
2
•The “nitrogen cascade” representing the fate of reactive N
compounds (N
r) in the environment
•The GAINS model and multiple N
r impacts
•Scenarios of different policy ambition:
N
r scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework
•Conclusions for environmental policy

3. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
“The Nitrogen Cascade”
3
Sutton et al., ENA 2011

4. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Environmental reactive nitrogen
•Multiple causes
•Multiple effects
•Many interactions
→ cause-effect relationships are
difficult to establish
Sutton et al., ENA 2011
4

5. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
IIASA‘s GAINS model
5

6. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
GAINS schematic representations
Agriculture
Energy use
Transport
Solvents,
fuels, industry
Other activities
NH
3control
& costs
SO
2control
& costs
VOC control
& costs
PM control
& costs
NO
xcontrol
& costs
GHG control
& costs
NH
3emissions
SO
2emissions
NO
xemissions
NH
3dispersion
Critical loads
(acidification)
S dispersion
VOC emissions
Primary PM
emissions
GHG emissions
NO
xdispersion
O
3formation
Secondary PM
formation
Primary PM
dispersion
GHG dispersion
Critical levels
for ozone
PM exposure
of population
Global warming
Economic
activities
Emission
control policies
Targets
Emission
control costs
Effects
Ozone exposure
of population
Critical levels
(ammonia)
NO
x/ VOC
control & costs
Critical loads
(eutrophication)
6

7. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Data sources
7
GAINS takes advantage of the developments within the UN-ECE
(TFRN, TFEIP) and UNFCCC to improve emission & cost datasets
•EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook
•2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
•Expert information from national consultations
•Own developments and contributions to research projects

8. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen Budgets
8
http://www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb

9. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
DairyMixproject
9
•European project(underERA-NET cofundmechanism)
•Investigatingsustainablecircularmixedfarmingsystemsfor
dairyproduction
•Data collection from 31 case study farms across Europe
•Develop concepts for improved C and N circularity
•3-pillar sustainability approach (multicriteria analysis)
•Project coordinated by ATB, Germany, partners on national funds

10. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Air pollutionpriorities
•EU National Emission CeilingsDirective
•ExceedancesforNO
x, NH
3emissions
•Toidentifycharacteristicflows
•Benchmark withregions/countries
•Scenarios and remediation
•Benefits forNH
3targetedmeasures
Gu
et al., Science, 2021
10
Liu et al., Nat.Comm., 2023

11. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Deep emissionreductions
11
Amann et al., 2020

12. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Greenhousegas budget(N
2O)
•Stableand effectivegreenhousegas
(GWP about300 timesthatofCO
2)
•Sources:
•Agriculture(fertilizedsoils)
•Combustion
•Industry
•Wastewatertreatment
Tian et al., Nature, 2020
12

13. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Sectoralpotential
13
Industry, global Mineral fertilizerinducedN
2O
Davidson and Winiwarter, 2023
Winiwarter et al., N2024
Winiwarter et al., 2018

14. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen scenario
concept
14 Kanter et al., 2020
2/19/2024

15. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Nitrogen in the SSP-RCP framework
15
SSP1 SSP2 SSP5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP8.5
low ambition
low ambition
med ambition
high ambition
high ambition
high ambition
Kanter et al., 2020

16. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
International Nitrogen Assessment
(forrelease in 2024)
16
Vieno, van Dingenen et al., 2024
Brownlie et al., 2024
Key actions for better nitrogen management

17. OECD Environmental Outlook workshop, February 19, 2024
Policy relevant take-homemessages
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•The “nitrogen lense” allows to integrate across different
policy fields
•Targeted measures are available to reduce flows of N
r
•Tools and indicators have been developed i.a. in the INMS
project allowing to quantify, to benchmark, and to assess given
policy targets
•Pollution scenarios need to extend from climate pathways,
require own narrative
•Overarching goal of “halving N waste” has been established
(possibly at UNEA-6)

18. Somerelevant web resources…
gains.iiasa.ac.at
www.inms.international
www.clrtap-tfrn.org/epnb
www.globalcarbonproject.org