1...WORLD URBANIZATION..................

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1. 1 Urbanization

2. 2 Definition & Indicators of urbanization Historical and emerging trends in urbanization in different world regions. Urbanization trends in developing and developed countries Demographic causes of urban growth demographic, health, environmental and social consequences of urbanization policy options to deal with urban challenge in developing countries Lecture covers:

3. 3 Definitions Urbanization: Increase in the proportion of the population living in urban areas Urban growth refers to an increase in the physical size of an urban area Countries differ in their definitions

4. 4 Definitions Generally refers to population living in any place (e.g. towns) 2,000 or more, especially if the population is non-agricultural. Some countries also have a middle category designated as ‘Semi-Urban’ Percent Urban: Population living in urban areas, expressed as a percentage of the area’s total population. Singapore is 100% urban while Rwanda is only 5% urban%

5. 5 Definitions Metropolitan Area: A large concentration of population, usually an area of 100,000 or more people with an important city at its core plus suburban and exurban areas that surround the city and are socially and economically integrated with it, as measured by commuting patterns Refers to size and economic integration, not density of settlement

6. Rural-urban migration as a result of push and pull factors. 6

7. World’s Urbanization Trends World’s urban population is growing 60 million a year Urbanization-the dominant demographic trend of the past half- century In 1950, 760 million of the world’s people lived in cities, which almost tripled to 2.7 billion by 1998 7

8. 8 World Urbanization Trends w o r l d w o r l d u r b an Year p o p u l at i on (in billion) pop u l at io n (in billion) P e rc e nt Urban 1 9 50 2.5 0.8 3 1 9 70 3.7 1.4 3 7 1 9 90 5.3 2.3 4 3 2 10 6.8 3.5 5 2 2 30 8.1 5.0 6 1 2 40 8.6 5.6 6 5 Source: UN Population prospects, the 1998 revision.

9. 9 World Urbanization Trends Proportion urban of the global population has increased from 1/3 in 1960s to 47% in 2000, and is expected to reach 65% by 2040 The percent urban population in less developed countries more than doubled from 18% in 1950s to 40% in 2000

10. Sources: UN Urbanization prospects, 1 1 9 98 3 3 5 7 9 1 9 9 4 8 3 4 5 5 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 950 - 1 97 5 1 975 - 200 2000 - 2 2 5 P e r c e n Urban (LDC) Urban (M DC) Rural (All countries) Share of World population growth in Urban and rural areas, 1975-2025

11. 11 Regional Trends in Urbanization 1950-2050 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 P e r c e n t 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 A s i a A f r i c a E u r op e L A C North Amrica Source:UN Urbanization prospect, 2007

12. Regional Trends in Urbanization Africa is currently least urban, but most rapidly urbanizing In next quarter century, increases in world urbanization will be attributed to Asia and SSA, as MDR and Latin America have already been highly urbanized Increasing urbanization levels accompanied by concentration of urban population in larger cities-the share of urban population living in million plus cities will increase from 10% in 1975 to 20% in 2015. 12

13. Population of Urban Agglomerations with 10 Millions or more . Year Cities Year Cities 1950 New York (12.3) 1975 Tokyo (26.6) 13 T o k y o ( 11 .3) New York (15.9) Mexico City (10.7) 2025 Tokyo (36.4) Mumbai (26.4) Delhi (22.5) Dhaka (22.0) 2007 Tokyo (35.7) New York (19.0) Mexico City (19.0) Mumbai (19.0)

14. Graphic Changes 14

15. Population Spatial Distribution and Concerns in Developing countries High urban growth rates Mismatch between population and resource distribution Rural over population Existence of small and scattered villages International migration 15

16. 16 Population Distribution in some selected Countries Rural-urban distribution: most important feature of population distribution within these countries Percent urban for Asia increased from 16.8% in 1950 to 39.7% in 2005. with highest urban pop (66%) in Japan in 2005, Bangladesh has 25.7 % urban population while Sri Lanka has only 15 %. Both India and Pakistan have slightly higher urban population .

17. Comparing Urbanization in MDC and LDC The levels of urbanization in LDC lag 75 years behind MDC Taking place at lower level of economic development Based on lower mortality and high fertility Involves many more people Governments are trying to intervene to modify it 17

18. Demographic Sources of Urban Growth Natural increase within city dwellers Net in-migration mainly due to rural to urban migration –the relative contributions of natural increase and net migration to urban growth depends on urban economies and urban fertility levels Reclassification of urban boundaries to encompass formerly rural population Circular migration: leading to seasonal fluctuation in the cities population 18

19. Demographics of Urban Population Sex ratio Age structure Household size 19

20. Demographics of Urban Population: Sex Ratio Sex selectivity of rural-urban migration Depends upon: –Relative urban job opportunities for men and women –Family norms regarding migration of men and women 20

21. 21

22. 22 Sex ratio in of several Asian countries

23. 23 Demographics of Urban Population in LDC: Age Structure Smaller proportion of very young (<5 years) and very old (>65years) than rural populations due to –Lower urban fertility than rural fertility –Higher proportion of young adults among rural-urban migrants –Retirement to rural areas in old age Result: Relatively higher proportion of population in economically active ages

24. Consequences of Urbanization: Demographic Invariably lower fertility in urban areas due to : – Higher cost of child rearing Social norms more conducive to small families Better availability of FP services 24

25. Consequences of Urbanization: Health Urban health advantage makes enormous disparities between urban poor and rich. –Infant mortality (or other indicators of health) may be worse in urban slums and squatter settlements compared to rural areas 25

26. 26 Consequences of Urbanization: Health Is urban health advantage narrowing over time? Double burden of disease –Traditional diseases of developing countries e.g. malnutrition, Malaria, TB. –Diseases associated with modernization e.g. obesity, road accidents, cancer –Diseases associated with overcrowding and pollution e.g. asthma, mental diseases Prime locations of newly emerging killers, notably HIV/AIDS .

27. Consequences of Urbanization: Environmental Heavier death tolls due to natural disaster like earthquakes, hurricanes etc. More vulnerable to flooding and storm damage Higher levels of environmental pollution Contribution to global warming However, many of these can be minimized by appropriate urban planning and management 27

28. Consequences of Urbanization: Economic Engines of economic development Density of population offers significant cost advantage for delivery of essential goods and services Increase in use of basic resources, such as energy and water 28

29. Consequences of Urbanization: Social Imbalance between urban population size and employment opportunities, urban infrastructure, housing -growing inequalities-civil unrest, crime 29

30. Meeting the urbanization Challenge: Policy Options Measures directed at slowing urban growth? OR Measures directed at improving administration, governance and management 30

31. Policy Options: Slowing Urban Growth Is there an optimal city size? 31 Over-urbanization?

32. Urbanization in Developing Countries: Policy options Rapid urbanization: inevitable Ironically current policies focus on reducing in-migrant flows, though natural increase is equally responsible for contributing to rapid urban growth Options: good management and governance 32

33. 33 Urbanization in Underdeveloped Nations Mirror the Experience of Industrialized Nations? No: cities there grow much faster 1940s-50s: More than 4% average annual gain in developing nations Compared to 2% average annual gain in industrialized nations’ heyday of urbanization Cause is not urban-rural migration but instead Natural population growth in country as a whole Developing country cities have improved mortality rates and only slightly lower fertility

34. 34 Urbanization in Underdeveloped Nations Mirror the Experience of Industrialized Nations? No decline in rural population, as occurred in developed countries Problem: the rapidly growing population in countryside has been absorbed to a good extent by cities, leaving country side to be farmed more productively, and cities are taking care of some of the problems associated with fast-growing population Rapid growing population requires the same amount of land to feed more people than before

35. Bangladesh Slum Clearance 35

36. Recycling as a Way of Life - Waste Collecting as Survival in Lagos, Nigeria 36

37. P e tro na T o w e r s , K u a l a L u m pu r, M al a ysia 37

38. Los Angeles at Night 38

39. Land Use In LDC 39