2024 0919 What the 50 bps Cuts Fed Funds Rate means for early stage start-ups in Enterprise AI?

Fed’s 50 Basis Point Rate Cut: A Game Changer for Enterprise AI startups? 🚀



On September 18, 2024, the Fed surprised markets with a 50 basis point rate cut, bringing rates to 4.75% - 5.00%. The move is aimed at stimulating the economy amidst easing inflation. With CPI inflation finally nearing the 2% target, we believe that this decision is expected to have a profound favorable impact on enterprise AI startups and overall tech investing opportunties.



📉 What This Means:

Lower borrowing costs = higher investment dollars for growth sectors = Large corporations investing more in upgrading their tech infratructure = more revenues for innovative Enterprise AI Startups!



Positive initial market reaction, with Nasdaq up 2.5% post-announcement.



💡 Key Takeaways:



Opportunities in Enterprise AI/SaaS: AI-driven SaaS companies, where innovation drives exponential growth, could see increased customer and investor interest.



Risks and uncertainties remain, most important being the upcoming US elections and the tax policies of the winning side and how strong the world wide slow down has already set in



Want to know more? Check out our detailed analysis on how this policy shift can shape your investment strategy in 2024 and beyond.

Watch the full video here:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sunilgrover_heres-what-feds-05-interest-rate-cut-pm-activity-7242792369526333440-Co0t?

#MarketAnalysis #TechInvesting #EnterpriseSaaS #InvestmentStrategy #FedRateCut



Let me know your thoughts or questions below

1. 1
This couldbethebeginningofanunprecedented boom cycle…
September 19, 2024

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About True Blue Partners
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TBP Venture Fund 1 is an early-stage venture capital fund
2
•Invest only in enterprise SaaS where AI/ML can deliver a 10x+ improvement
•Bring our relationship network and corporate finance expertise
▪Be part of the early institutional check into a startup
10x
3-4 years
15x
3-4 years
25x
8-10 years
70x
3-4 years

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Some of our portfolio companies
Customer Support AI Call Center AI Digital Freight Brokerage
Customer Onboarding with AI Revenue Ops with AI
AI Usage detector
Studio quality Video GenAI
Efficient AI data processing
AI data security

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▪Fed reduced the interest rate by 50 bps From 5.25-5.5% to 4.75 -5.00%
▪Beginning of a new era
▪PotentialtoseeanAI-driven unprecedented boom in productivity
▪These macro economic shifts will favorably impact opportunities for startups and venture capital investments.
Whatchanged? Why does it matter?

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0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
0.00x
2.00x
4.00x
6.00x
8.00x
10.00x
12.00x
14.00x
Jul-18
Sep-18 Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19 May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19 Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20 May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20 Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21 May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21 Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22 May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22 Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23 May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23 Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24 May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24 Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25 May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25 Nov-25
Fed Funds Rate
TEV/Total Revenues
Nasdaq Index - TEV/Total Revenues SaaS Index - TEV/Total Revenues Fed Fund Rate Forecasted Fed Funds Rate
▪Up to Mar 2020 –Pre-Covid Era
▪Mar 2020 –Dec 2021 –Covid stimulus
▪Jan 2022 –Nov 2023 –Rising Interest Rates
▪Nov 2023 –Sep 2024 –High Interest rates……..Now that changes.
Impact on Monetary Policy on Money Flow and Valuations
Sources: CapIQand Newyorkfed.org as of 15
th
September 2024
Performance of TEV/Revenues of SaaS and Nasdaq VS Fed Funds Rate (2018 –2025*)
12.8x
6.1x
Q1 2019
4.66x
7.90x

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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Nasdaq Index
5.0%
5.4%5.4%5.3%5.4%
6.2%
6.8%
7.0%
7.5%
7.9%7.8%
8.3%
8.6%
9.1%
8.5%
8.3%8.2%
7.7%
7.1%
6.5%6.4%
6.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.0%
3.0%
3.2%
3.7%3.7%
3.2%3.1%
3.4%
3.1%3.2%
3.5%3.4%3.3%
3.0%2.9%
2.5%
4.3%
2.5% 2.4%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24* Oct-24*
Nov-24* Dec-24*
Inflation Rate
CPI Inflation rateExpectation as per 1st Jan 2023
CPI and key contributors (12 months ending)
Headline Inflation CPI (Consumer Price Index) vs. Nasdaq
Source(s): 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Actual and Forecasted CPI Inflation Rate (2021-2024) in comparison with Nasdaq Index
CPI inflation is heading towards the 2% target. CPI has finally met the forecasted percentage in August
Nasdaq Index
July 2024Aug 2024
CPI Index 2.9% 2.5%
Commodities less food
and energy commodities
(1.9%) (1.9%)
Gasoline (2.7%) (10.3%)
Shelter 5.1% 5.2%
–As inflation has eased, percolating concerns about a slowing labormarket seemed to have raised
the likelihood that the Fed will start cutting for the first time since the early days of the Covid
crisis.
–The Gasoline component majorly dragged down CPI in August by declining 10.3% compared to
August 2023.
Nasdaq up 17.8% YTD

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0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%0.7%
0.8%
0.4%0.4%0.4%
0.9%
0.8%0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.2%0.2%
0.6%
0.4%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.2%0.2%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24* Oct-24*
Nov-24* Dec-24*
July 2024 Aug 2024
CPI Index 0.2% 0.2%
Utility (0.7%) (1.9%)
Gasoline 0.0% (0.6%)
Fuel Oil 0.9% (1.9%)
Shelter 0.4% 0.5%
CPI and Key Contributors (Month on Month Change)
MoM Change in Headline Inflation CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Source(s): 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Actual CPI Inflation Rate (2021-2024) (Month on Month Percentage Change)
Month over Month change in Headline CPI inflation continued to increase for a second consecutive month
Inflation Rate
Both Fed projections and market
expectations forecasted lower interest
rates in 2024 however need to weight
laterhalf of the year
–There was an unexpected rise in core inflation in August that was driven by a strong increase in
shelter and transport services prices, which is not expected to sustain in the long run.
–After increasing continuously till March 2024, the monthly CPI started declining as the Fed
announced that the interest rate would remain high for some time.
▪However, in August 2024 the CPI has again increased as Fed is expected to decline in this
week.

8. 8
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Core PCE –Personal Consumption Expenditure –Key driver of Fed Rates
Prices go up, consumer spending goes down. PCE captures the net-net of those two. Gradually declining since Jan 23
Core PCE (Excluding Food and Energy) YOY –“Stubbornly High”
Core PCE = PCE excluding highly volatile Food and Energy
–The Core PCE price index increased 0.2% in July after rising the same amount in June and 2.6% from a year ago in July 2024 (expected
2.7%).
–Disinflation amidst strong spending and solid income gains.
–In the CPI index, shelter is weighed for ~40% and in the Core PCE index, shelter is weighed for ~20% -25%. Since, shelter costs remained
sticky in July, July’s Core PCE data is lower than July’s CPI data because of the difference in how shelter prices are weighted.
Source(s): 1. Fred Economic Data, Trading Forecast, Fred Economic Data
Maybe not transitory
Fed 2%
Target
1.57%
1.56%
2.05%
3.12%
3.52%
3.80%3.87%3.88%3.92%
4.31%
4.82%
5.04%
5.21%
5.42%5.36%
5.03%
4.88%
5.04%
4.70%
4.93%
5.20%
5.10%
4.80%
4.62%
4.90%4.85%4.78%4.76%4.69%
4.28%
4.19%
3.73%
3.59%
3.39%
3.16%
2.93%2.85%2.80%2.80%2.80%
2.60%2.60%2.60%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23 July-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
Jun-24 July-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
Nov-24 Dec-24

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0.09% 0.20%
0.77%
1.21%
2.33%
3.08%
3.78%
4.10%
4.33%
4.57%
4.65%
4.83%
5.08%
5.12%
5.33%5.33%5.33%5.33%5.33%5.33%
4.88%
5.10%
4.10%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21
Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24 Sep-24
Oct-24*
Nov-24* Dec-24* Jan-25* Feb-25* Mar-25* Apr-25* May-25*
Jun-25*
Jul-25*
Aug-25* Sep-25* Oct-25*
Nov-25* Dec-25*
Fed's Fund RatesForecasts as per Jun 2024
Both Fed projections and market
expectations forecasted lower interest
rates in 2024 however need to weight later
half of the year
Current Monetary Environment –Revised forecasts
Actual and Projected Fed Funds Rate (2021-2025)
Source(s): 1. Fred Economic Data, Trading Forecast
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Expecting inflation to be transitory
No expectation of Russian invasion
Fed Policy
–The Federal Reserve declined a half-point rate cut, bringing its target range to 4.75% -5.00%.
–The committee indicated a similar 50 more basis points cut by the end of the year, another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025,
and a half point in 2026.
–A lower fund rate indicates cheaper borrowing, which encourages both consumer spending and business investment. The Fed aims with a
rate cut to stimulate the economy and employment to prevent an economic recession while not reigniting inflation.
First interest rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

10. 10
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3.60%3.60%
3.50%
3.70%
3.50%
3.70%
3.60%
3.50%
3.40%
3.60%
3.50%
3.40%
3.70%
3.60%
3.50%
3.80%3.80%
3.90%
3.70%3.70%3.70%
3.90%
3.80%
3.90%
4.00%
4.10%
4.30%4.20%
2.80%2.80%
2.70%2.70%2.70%
2.60%
2.70%
2.60%
2.50%
2.60%
2.50%
2.40%
2.60%
2.40%
2.30%2.30%2.30%2.30%
2.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%2.20%
2.10%
2.00%
2.10%
60.0
59.959.9
60.160.1
60.0
59.9
60.1
60.260.2
60.460.4
60.360.3
60.460.460.4
60.2
60.5
60.1
60.2
60.1
60.3
60.2
60.160.1
60.060.0
58.80
59.00
59.20
59.40
59.60
59.80
60.00
60.20
60.40
60.60
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23
Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Unemployment Rate Quit Rate Employment-Population ratio
Unemployment Rate and Quit Rate
Employment
-
Population Ratio
▪Labor Market Implications
–In August, the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Highest inlast25 years was at 10% in 2008-2009. Lowest 3.5%
–Employment to population ratio was60%.Highestitsbeen was 64.7% in April of 2000. Lowest 51.2% in Apr 2020
Labor Market Analysis
Unemployment and Quit Rate (May 2022-August 2024)
Sources: 1. BLS and Trading Economics

11. 11
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142.35
143.79
147.26
147.67
149.95
149.91
149.99
149.82
150.14
150.66
151.08
151.49
151.75
152.79
153.27
153.91
154.50
155.51
156.12
157.07
157.53
158.22
157.89
158.31
158.12
158.28
158.76
158.89
158.73
158.49
159.30
160.15
160.30
160.82
160.96
160.71
161.00
161.21
161.50
161.55
161.28
161.87
161.18
161.15
160.97
161.47
161.49
161.08
161.20
161.27
161.43
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Jun-2020
Aug-2020 Oct-2020 Dec-2020 Feb-2021 Apr-2021 Jun-2021
Aug-2021 Oct-2021 Dec-2021 Feb-2022 Apr-2022 Jun-2022
Aug-2022 Oct-2022 Dec-2022 Feb-2023 Apr-2023 Jun-2023
Aug-2023 Oct-2023 Dec-2023 Feb-2024 Apr-2024 Jun-2024
Aug-2024
US Employed Persons (M)
▪Employed Persons Analysis
–Employed people increased at an annual rate of 0.07% in 2024, 0.64% in 2023, 1.42% in 2022 and 4.17% in 2021.
–The increase in employed persons has slowly declined this year on a monthly basis. Improvement in the laborproductivity led to the
increase in Percentage Change of LaborProductivity from Previous Quarter (output per hour).
Labor Market Analysis
Sources: Y Charts
US Employment Persons (June 2020-August 2024)
Highest number of people every employed in US today

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History of US Employed Persons
Today at all time high

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1.6
0.5
0.9
-0.8
3.5
3.6
3.5 3.2-0.9
19.9
5.8
-3.3
2.5
-0.1
-2.5 2.6
-5.7
-3.7
0.0
2.1
-0.3
3.3
4.6
3.5
0.4
2.3
101.4101.4
101.7101.5
102.3
103.0
104.1
105.0
104.8
109.6
111.2
110.3
111.0110.9
110.2
110.9
109.3
108.3108.3
108.8108.8
109.6
110.9
111.8111.9
112.6
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q'1-18 Q'2-18 Q'3-18 Q'4-18 Q'1-19 Q'2-19 Q'3-19 Q'4-19 Q'1-20 Q'2-20 Q'3-20 Q'4-20 Q'1-21 Q'2-21 Q'3-21 Q'4-21 Q'1-22 Q'2-22 Q'3-22 Q'4-22 Q'1-23 Q'2-23 Q'3-23 Q'4-23 Q'1-24 Q'2-24
Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers
Percentage Change of
Labor
Productivity from Previous
Quarter (output per hour)
Percentage Change of Labor Productivity from Previous Quarter (output per hour) Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers
▪Supply chains ramping back up, malls opening up
▪Next wave of productivity improvement is will come with AI applications driving 30-40% improvements in next 2-3years.
Labor Productivity Analysis
Sources: BLS
Non-Farm Business LaborProductivity (output per hour) (2018-2024)
Quarterly Labor productivity has improved this year in Q’2 2024

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▪Inflation has cooled and Fed willcatchup.Inflationand Fed rates heading towards 2-2.5%
–Currently forecasted to get to 2% by Q2 2025
–Coincides with US President regime change
▪No matter what the outcome there will be leadership team reshuffle regime change
–In the past this has brought a level of short termuncertainty
–Good news is both are familiar and experienced (Former President or Former Vice President)
–In 2000 and 2008, the entire teams coming in with new leadership were different and new to the white house and that led tochaos.
▪Key Global Macro threats that can cause a massive drop in markets
–Israel vs. Iran (Nuclear)
–Russia vs. Ukraine (Nuclear)
–China taking over Taiwan –Semiconductor supply chain crises
–North vs. South Korea –(Nuclear)
▪Good News -Fed has a lot of fire power
–Interest rates are at 4.75 -5%, down from 5.25 to 5.5%
–Fiscal stimulus will have to wait till new regime comes in –2000, 2008
–While Infrastructure providers in AI are in bubble phase, the benefits of AI are still to be seen in productivity improvement
What To Expect in the Coming Year?

15. 15
Coming up next, what’s going on with SaaS Valuations?

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3.5x
6.0x
12.0x
13.6x
2.3x
5.8x
12.2x
21.9x
5.3x
9.1x
12.3x
16.6x
2.5x
3.0x
7.2x
7.8x
2.2x 2.6x
5.8x 5.8x
2.8x
3.5x
6.1x
9.6x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
<$1B $1B-2.5B $2.5B-10B >$10B
Median EV/LTM Revenue
Enterprise Value
EOY 2019 EOY 2020 EOY 2021 EOY 2022 EOY 2023 LTM 2024
5.1x
6.4x
10.2x
15.3x
5.2x
10.6x
13.7x
27.9x
5.2x
6.6x
14.5x 14.6x
2.9x
5.6x
3.3x
6.1x
3.3x
4.7x
6.9x
9.7x
3.1x
4.7x
6.2x
9.8x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
<10% 10-20% 20-30% >30%
Median EV/LTM Revenue
Revenue Growth
EOY 2019 EOY 2020 EOY 2021 EOY 2022 EOY 2023 LTM 2024
8.7x
6.2x
9.3x 9.5x
11.1x 11.5x
12.0x
18.9x
10.9x
11.7x
12.3x
10.5x
4.4x 4.3x
5.7x
5.0x
4.0x
4.9x
6.6x 6.3x
5.0x
4.1x
5.5x
3.7x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
<60% 60-70% 70-80% >80%
Median EV/LTM Revenue
Gross Margin
EOY 2019 EOY 2020 EOY 2021 EOY 2022 EOY 2023 LTM 2024
9.3x 9.5x
6.1x
8.4x
6.5x
13.9x
9.0x
20.2x
15.5x
12.0x
13.7x
8.8x
27.5x
12.0x
13.7x
8.0x
12.7x 12.1x
8.1x
11.7x
14.2x
4.5x 4.1x 3.9x
6.0x
4.4x
1.8x
6.2x
4.1x
3.1x 3.6x
5.1x
3.6x
2.8x
5.1x4.8x 4.7x
3.3x
4.4x
5.3x
2.1x
6.6x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
CRM Data/AnalyticsERP & Accounting HCM Industry VerticalCommunication IT
Median EV/LTM Revenue
EOY 2019 EOY 2020 EOY 2021 EOY 2022 EOY 2023 LTM 2024
Median Multiples: 2019 –2024
Median multiples have declined across sectors, with Communication falling most drastically
EV/LTM Revenue by Gross Margin % EV/LTM Revenue by Revenue Growth %
Sources: CapIQas of 13
th
Sep 2024
EV/LTM Revenue by Company Classification EV/LTM Revenue by Enterprise Value