2024 Q3-Residential Housing Market Review
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Oct 14, 2025
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About This Presentation
This presentation provides an analysis by the Brookings Institution titled "Offshore Ownership of American Real Estate is a Black Box: The Treasury Has the Power to Open It.”
Slide Content
Adkins Capital Management
“Helping Prospective Home Buyers Make A Prudent Home Purchase Decision”
U.S. Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins 60-City Home Price Index Analysis
Third Quarter, 2024
“Helping Prospective Home Buyers Make A Prudent Home Purchase Decision”
U.S. Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins 60-City Home Price Index Analysis
Third Quarter, 2024
PRESENTATION CONTENTS
➢The purpose of this presentation is for the founder of Adkins Capital Management (ACM) to
provide an overview and assessment of the events and trends that have transpired in the U.S.
residential housing market during the third quarter of 2024:
➢An analysis by the Brookings Institution titled "Offshore Ownership of American Real
Estate is a Black Box: The Treasury Has the Power to Open It.”
➢The monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve to accommodate financial conditions
that support economic growth amid concerns about inflation and a cooling labor market.
➢The home price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home
Price Index:
➢Top Five Overpriced Cities in the U.S.; and
➢Top Five Underpriced Cities in the U.S.
➢Resources for Prospective Home Buyers.
➢Important Disclosures.
1Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢The purpose of this presentation is for the founder of Adkins Capital Management (ACM) to
provide an overview and assessment of the events and trends that have transpired in the U.S.
residential housing market during the third quarter of 2024:
➢An analysis by the Brookings Institution titled "Offshore Ownership of American Real
Estate is a Black Box: The Treasury Has the Power to Open It.”
➢The monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve to accommodate financial conditions
that support economic growth amid concerns about inflation and a cooling labor market.
➢The home price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home
Price Index:
➢Top Five Overpriced Cities in the U.S.; and
➢Top Five Underpriced Cities in the U.S.
➢Resources for Prospective Home Buyers.
➢Important Disclosures.
1Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins Capital Management
➢Privately owned and independently operated company.
➢Exclusive focus on residential real estate.
➢ACM is not affiliated with any parties associated with the
residential housing industry.
➢Our mission is to bridge the gap in the residential housing
market, where deficiencies in education, public policy,
regulation, product structure, and personnel have created
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2
➢More than 20 years of real estate analysis experience, more than 10 years of
institutional investment consulting experience, more than eight years of freelance
financial and investment writing experience, and more than five years of state
government experience at the agency and legislative levels.
➢Author of more than 25 published financial and investment articles, including
publications by Forbes, Investor’s Business Daily, Yahoo, Investopedia, Financial
Edge, and more than 230 news organizations worldwide.
➢2023 inductee into Marquis Who’s Who.
OVERVIEW OF ACM FOUNDER AND CORPORATION
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
an environment where prospective home buyers need objective information and
useful analytical tools to make a prudent home purchase decision.
➢Privately owned and independently operated company.
➢Exclusive focus on residential real estate.
➢ACM is not affiliated with any parties associated with the
residential housing industry.
➢Our mission is to bridge the gap in the residential housing
market, where deficiencies in education, public policy,
regulation, product structure, and personnel have created
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2
➢More than 20 years of real estate analysis experience, more than 10 years of
institutional investment consulting experience, more than eight years of freelance
financial and investment writing experience, and more than five years of state
government experience at the agency and legislative levels.
➢Author of more than 25 published financial and investment articles, including
publications by Forbes, Investor’s Business Daily, Yahoo, Investopedia, Financial
Edge, and more than 230 news organizations worldwide.
➢2023 inductee into Marquis Who’s Who.
OVERVIEW OF ACM FOUNDER AND CORPORATION
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
an environment where prospective home buyers need objective information and
useful analytical tools to make a prudent home purchase decision.
3Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
"Billions of dollars in U.S. residential real estate
are held through opaque corporate structures,
obscuring the extent of foreign investment."
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
"Billions of dollars in U.S. residential real estate
are held through opaque corporate structures,
obscuring the extent of foreign investment."
4Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
OVERVIEW OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION ANALYSIS
In Q3 2024, the Brookings Institution released a report titled "Offshore Ownership of American Real Estate is a Black Box:
The Treasury Has the Power to Open It," highlighting critical issues in U.S. residential real estate. Here are the key findings:
➢Opaque Ownership Structures:
Offshore investors frequently use corporate entities to conceal their identities, keeping their names off public records. As a
result, the true extent of offshore investment in U.S. real estate is likely underreported.
➢Masked Foreign Ownership:
Domestic shell companies listed as “American-based” can further obscure the identities of foreign investors.
➢Lack of Transparency:
Policymakers and civil society lack accurate data on the scale of foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate.
➢Widespread Opaque Holdings:
Billions of dollars in property are held through opaque structures, with significant concentrations in New York City,
Miami, and Boston.
1.Corporate ownership in these Cities accounts for 25-37% of residential real estate, mostly through LLCs (71% in
NYC, 68% in Miami, 67% in Boston).
➢Luxury Market Dominance:
Corporate ownership is especially prevalent in luxury properties:
1.$1–2 million properties: Corporate ownership rises sharply.
2.$10–100 million properties: Corporate ownership exceeds 50% and 80%, respectively.
OVERVIEW OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION ANALYSIS
In Q3 2024, the Brookings Institution released a report titled "Offshore Ownership of American Real Estate is a Black Box:
The Treasury Has the Power to Open It," highlighting critical issues in U.S. residential real estate. Here are the key findings:
➢Opaque Ownership Structures:
Offshore investors frequently use corporate entities to conceal their identities, keeping their names off public records. As a
result, the true extent of offshore investment in U.S. real estate is likely underreported.
➢Masked Foreign Ownership:
Domestic shell companies listed as “American-based” can further obscure the identities of foreign investors.
➢Lack of Transparency:
Policymakers and civil society lack accurate data on the scale of foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate.
➢Widespread Opaque Holdings:
Billions of dollars in property are held through opaque structures, with significant concentrations in New York City,
Miami, and Boston.
1.Corporate ownership in these Cities accounts for 25-37% of residential real estate, mostly through LLCs (71% in
NYC, 68% in Miami, 67% in Boston).
➢Luxury Market Dominance:
Corporate ownership is especially prevalent in luxury properties:
1.$1–2 million properties: Corporate ownership rises sharply.
2.$10–100 million properties: Corporate ownership exceeds 50% and 80%, respectively.
5Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE OWNERSHIP
Based on research conducted by Adkins Capital Management, the following key points need to be considered when analyzing the
extent of non-U.S. citizen ownership of residential real estate in the U.S.
➢Federal and Local Restrictions:
1.No federal restrictions on non-U.S. citizens owning residential real estate in the U.S.
2.Foreigners can purchase property as non-residents, permanent residents, or temporary residents (including single-
family homes, condos, townhouses, and land).
3.Some local or state laws may impose restrictions or additional reporting requirements.
➢Confidential Purchases through Legal Entities:
1.Limited Liability Company (LLC): Offers liability protection and tax flexibility; profits and losses pass through to
owners, avoiding double taxation.
2.S Corporation (S Corp): Income passes through to shareholders, avoiding corporate tax; restrictions on the number
and type of shareholders.
3.C Corporation (C Corp): Provides liability protection but is subject to corporate income tax; double taxation occurs as
profits are taxed at both the corporate and shareholder levels.
4.Limited Partnership (LP): Involves general and limited partners; limited partners enjoy liability protection and pass-
through taxation.
5.Limited Liability Partnership (LLP): Similar to an LLC but often used by professional services firms for liability
protection and pass-through taxation.
➢Commonly Used Structures:
1.Non-U.S. citizens commonly use LLC or LP structures for owning U.S. residential real estate due to their liability
protection and tax benefits. Legal trusts are also frequently used to purchase and manage U.S. real estate with
potential tax benefits and privacy.
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE OWNERSHIP
Based on research conducted by Adkins Capital Management, the following key points need to be considered when analyzing the
extent of non-U.S. citizen ownership of residential real estate in the U.S.
➢Federal and Local Restrictions:
1.No federal restrictions on non-U.S. citizens owning residential real estate in the U.S.
2.Foreigners can purchase property as non-residents, permanent residents, or temporary residents (including single-
family homes, condos, townhouses, and land).
3.Some local or state laws may impose restrictions or additional reporting requirements.
➢Confidential Purchases through Legal Entities:
1.Limited Liability Company (LLC): Offers liability protection and tax flexibility; profits and losses pass through to
owners, avoiding double taxation.
2.S Corporation (S Corp): Income passes through to shareholders, avoiding corporate tax; restrictions on the number
and type of shareholders.
3.C Corporation (C Corp): Provides liability protection but is subject to corporate income tax; double taxation occurs as
profits are taxed at both the corporate and shareholder levels.
4.Limited Partnership (LP): Involves general and limited partners; limited partners enjoy liability protection and pass-
through taxation.
5.Limited Liability Partnership (LLP): Similar to an LLC but often used by professional services firms for liability
protection and pass-through taxation.
➢Commonly Used Structures:
1.Non-U.S. citizens commonly use LLC or LP structures for owning U.S. residential real estate due to their liability
protection and tax benefits. Legal trusts are also frequently used to purchase and manage U.S. real estate with
potential tax benefits and privacy.
6Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF LLC OWNERSHIP
The following points need to be understood with regard to using an LLC by Non-U.S. Citizens to Purchase Residential
Real Estate in the U.S.
➢Understanding LLC Information:
1.State Websites: Visit the Secretary of State's website for the state where the LLC is registered to find
ownership details. Information often listed in the Articles of Organization or Annual Reports.
2.County Recorder’s Office: Property deeds can be reviewed here for additional LLC information.
3.Details Available: The LLC's name, the state of formation, and the registered agent's name should be accessible.
➢Requirements for Non-U.S. Citizens:
1.Registration: The LLC must be registered in a U.S. state.
2.Registered Agent: The LLC must have a registered agent in its state of formation.
3.Bank Account: Typically, the LLC needs a U.S. bank account for real estate transactions.
1.EIN: An Employer Identification Number (EIN) must be obtained from the IRS. Non-U.S. citizens can
apply using IRS Form SS-4.
➢Tax Obligations:
1.FIRPTA Compliance: Under the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) of 1980, non-U.S.
citizens must pay U.S. taxes on gains from selling U.S. real estate. LLCs selling property are subject to FIRPTA
withholding unless exemptions apply.
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF LLC OWNERSHIP
The following points need to be understood with regard to using an LLC by Non-U.S. Citizens to Purchase Residential
Real Estate in the U.S.
➢Understanding LLC Information:
1.State Websites: Visit the Secretary of State's website for the state where the LLC is registered to find
ownership details. Information often listed in the Articles of Organization or Annual Reports.
2.County Recorder’s Office: Property deeds can be reviewed here for additional LLC information.
3.Details Available: The LLC's name, the state of formation, and the registered agent's name should be accessible.
➢Requirements for Non-U.S. Citizens:
1.Registration: The LLC must be registered in a U.S. state.
2.Registered Agent: The LLC must have a registered agent in its state of formation.
3.Bank Account: Typically, the LLC needs a U.S. bank account for real estate transactions.
1.EIN: An Employer Identification Number (EIN) must be obtained from the IRS. Non-U.S. citizens can
apply using IRS Form SS-4.
➢Tax Obligations:
1.FIRPTA Compliance: Under the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA) of 1980, non-U.S.
citizens must pay U.S. taxes on gains from selling U.S. real estate. LLCs selling property are subject to FIRPTA
withholding unless exemptions apply.
7Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF TRUST OWNERSHIP
Legal trusts are versatile tools used by non-U.S. citizens to purchase residential real estate in the U.S. The following points need to
be understood:
➢Types of Trusts:
1.Revocable Trusts: Can be altered or revoked by the grantor and are often used for estate planning.
2.Irrevocable Trusts: Cannot be changed after they are created and offer more robust asset protection.
3.Living Trusts: Established during the grantor's lifetime and can manage assets before and after death.
4.Testamentary Trusts: Created through a will and take effect after the grantor's death.
➢Trust Provisions:
1.Privacy: Trusts can provide a level of anonymity, as the property is owned by the trust rather than the individual.
1.When property is held in a trust, the property title is listed under the name of the trust. Therefore, it is much more
difficult to find the name of the owner.
2.Tax Benefits: Trusts can offer potential tax advantages, such as avoiding stringent U.S. estate tax.
3.Asset Protection: Trusts can protect assets from creditors and legal judgments, offering a layer of security.
4.Regulatory Compliance: Trusts must comply with U.S. laws and regulations.
➢Understanding Trust Information
1.Look up the property records in the county where the property is located. The property deed should list the name of the
trustee and the name of the trust.
2.Property tax records may list the name of the person or entity responsible for paying the taxes, which could be the trustee.
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF TRUST OWNERSHIP
Legal trusts are versatile tools used by non-U.S. citizens to purchase residential real estate in the U.S. The following points need to
be understood:
➢Types of Trusts:
1.Revocable Trusts: Can be altered or revoked by the grantor and are often used for estate planning.
2.Irrevocable Trusts: Cannot be changed after they are created and offer more robust asset protection.
3.Living Trusts: Established during the grantor's lifetime and can manage assets before and after death.
4.Testamentary Trusts: Created through a will and take effect after the grantor's death.
➢Trust Provisions:
1.Privacy: Trusts can provide a level of anonymity, as the property is owned by the trust rather than the individual.
1.When property is held in a trust, the property title is listed under the name of the trust. Therefore, it is much more
difficult to find the name of the owner.
2.Tax Benefits: Trusts can offer potential tax advantages, such as avoiding stringent U.S. estate tax.
3.Asset Protection: Trusts can protect assets from creditors and legal judgments, offering a layer of security.
4.Regulatory Compliance: Trusts must comply with U.S. laws and regulations.
➢Understanding Trust Information
1.Look up the property records in the county where the property is located. The property deed should list the name of the
trustee and the name of the trust.
2.Property tax records may list the name of the person or entity responsible for paying the taxes, which could be the trustee.
8Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF OWNERSHIP SAFEGUARDS
➢When non-U.S. citizens purchase American real estate, there are numerous safeguards in place to ensure compliance with U.S.
laws and prevent illegal activities, such as money laundering or the use of illicit funds,. These measures include:
➢Identifying Buyers Through LLCs and Loans
1.LLCs: Since many transactions occur through LLCs, entities like the Secretary of State provide mechanisms to identify the
non-U.S. citizen purchasing the property.
2.Loan Financing: For financed purchases, U.S. bank accounts serve as a means to identify buyers.
➢Trust Arrangements for Confidential Purchases
1.When non-U.S. citizens use legal trust arrangements for confidentiality, several entities ensure legal oversight, including:
1) Title companies; 2) Escrow companies; 3) Trust companies or banks; and 4) Attorneys or law firms acting as trustees.
➢Cash Purchases and Confidentiality Protections
When real estate is purchased with cash to enhance confidentiality, various protections are in place:
1.Patriot Act & Bank Secrecy Act: Require the filing of suspicious activity reports.
2.FinCEN Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs): Mandate reporting of cash transactions above $300,000.
3.Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC): Screens buyers against U.S. sanctions lists.
4.Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Policies: Include Know Your Client (KYC) protocols.
5.IRS Reporting Requirements: Cash transactions over $10,000 must be reported on Form 8300.
6.Real Estate Professionals: Conduct customer due diligence before facilitating property purchases.
These combined measures help ensure that non-U.S. citizen transactions are transparent and compliant with U.S. regulations.
ACM’S ANALYSIS OF OWNERSHIP SAFEGUARDS
➢When non-U.S. citizens purchase American real estate, there are numerous safeguards in place to ensure compliance with U.S.
laws and prevent illegal activities, such as money laundering or the use of illicit funds,. These measures include:
➢Identifying Buyers Through LLCs and Loans
1.LLCs: Since many transactions occur through LLCs, entities like the Secretary of State provide mechanisms to identify the
non-U.S. citizen purchasing the property.
2.Loan Financing: For financed purchases, U.S. bank accounts serve as a means to identify buyers.
➢Trust Arrangements for Confidential Purchases
1.When non-U.S. citizens use legal trust arrangements for confidentiality, several entities ensure legal oversight, including:
1) Title companies; 2) Escrow companies; 3) Trust companies or banks; and 4) Attorneys or law firms acting as trustees.
➢Cash Purchases and Confidentiality Protections
When real estate is purchased with cash to enhance confidentiality, various protections are in place:
1.Patriot Act & Bank Secrecy Act: Require the filing of suspicious activity reports.
2.FinCEN Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs): Mandate reporting of cash transactions above $300,000.
3.Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC): Screens buyers against U.S. sanctions lists.
4.Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Policies: Include Know Your Client (KYC) protocols.
5.IRS Reporting Requirements: Cash transactions over $10,000 must be reported on Form 8300.
6.Real Estate Professionals: Conduct customer due diligence before facilitating property purchases.
These combined measures help ensure that non-U.S. citizen transactions are transparent and compliant with U.S. regulations.
9Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYTICAL CONCLUSIONS
➢Non-U.S. Citizens and Residential Real Estate Transactions:
1.Most residential real estate purchases by non-U.S. citizens are conducted via LLCs.
2.Real estate purchase transactions are predominantly financed through U.S. banking institutions rather than cash.
3.The primary motive for using LLCs, other corporate forms, or legal Trusts appears to be for the maintenance of
confidentiality, rather than as a mechanism for fostering illegal activities.
➢ACM’s Analysis:
1.The findings in the Brookings Institution report are correct in that it is difficult to compile data on U.S.
residential real estate ownership by non-U.S. citizens.
2.Identifying the owner of a specific property that is using an LLC or another corporate structure is relatively
straightforward.
3.When a legal trust is involved, determining the owner of a property can be more challenging. However,
authorities can quickly access the required information for their investigations.
➢Brookings Institution Insights:
1.The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is developing a geographic targeting order program to
collect beneficial ownership information.
1.Extending these reporting requirements nationwide would create a comprehensive database to track non-
U.S. citizen ownership of residential real estate.
ACM’S ANALYTICAL CONCLUSIONS
➢Non-U.S. Citizens and Residential Real Estate Transactions:
1.Most residential real estate purchases by non-U.S. citizens are conducted via LLCs.
2.Real estate purchase transactions are predominantly financed through U.S. banking institutions rather than cash.
3.The primary motive for using LLCs, other corporate forms, or legal Trusts appears to be for the maintenance of
confidentiality, rather than as a mechanism for fostering illegal activities.
➢ACM’s Analysis:
1.The findings in the Brookings Institution report are correct in that it is difficult to compile data on U.S.
residential real estate ownership by non-U.S. citizens.
2.Identifying the owner of a specific property that is using an LLC or another corporate structure is relatively
straightforward.
3.When a legal trust is involved, determining the owner of a property can be more challenging. However,
authorities can quickly access the required information for their investigations.
➢Brookings Institution Insights:
1.The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) is developing a geographic targeting order program to
collect beneficial ownership information.
1.Extending these reporting requirements nationwide would create a comprehensive database to track non-
U.S. citizen ownership of residential real estate.
10Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
ACM’S ANALYTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
ACM’s Recommendations:
1.Encourage the U.S. Treasury Department to coordinate efforts between FinCEN and the IRS to enhance data
collection processes that will monitor non-U.S. citizen purchases of U.S. real estate in the aggregate.
2.Expand FinCEN's relationship with the IRS to monitor non-U.S. citizen purchases of raw land, particularly in
strategic locations such as border regions, near military bases, coastal areas, critical infrastructure, agricultural land,
and strategic urban and industrial zones.
3.Encourage the U.S. Treasury Department to expand the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the
United States (CFIUS)
1
, by reviewing and updating the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act
(FIRRMA) of 2018, to significantly broaden CFIUS's powers and responsibilities.
1.Due to the recent unidentified and unauthorized drone activity in the U.S., ACM suggests that the
CFIUS implement additional monitoring measures for residential real estate, commercial real estate,
and raw land and coordinate its information and recommendations with the U.S. Defense Department
to help monitor the activities of non-U.S. citizen ownership of real estate in the U.S.
4.ACM recommends the evaluation and implementation of effective foreign real estate purchase policies from
Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and the United Arab
Emirates to protect local, state, and national interests; ensure affordability; and safeguard U.S. national security.
1 CFIUS is an interagency committee responsible for reviewing transactions involving foreign investment in the United States to determine
their effect on national security. CFIUS operates under the authority of the Defense Production Act of 1950 and is chaired by the Secretary
of the Treasury.
ACM’S ANALYTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
ACM’s Recommendations:
1.Encourage the U.S. Treasury Department to coordinate efforts between FinCEN and the IRS to enhance data
collection processes that will monitor non-U.S. citizen purchases of U.S. real estate in the aggregate.
2.Expand FinCEN's relationship with the IRS to monitor non-U.S. citizen purchases of raw land, particularly in
strategic locations such as border regions, near military bases, coastal areas, critical infrastructure, agricultural land,
and strategic urban and industrial zones.
3.Encourage the U.S. Treasury Department to expand the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the
United States (CFIUS)
1
, by reviewing and updating the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act
(FIRRMA) of 2018, to significantly broaden CFIUS's powers and responsibilities.
1.Due to the recent unidentified and unauthorized drone activity in the U.S., ACM suggests that the
CFIUS implement additional monitoring measures for residential real estate, commercial real estate,
and raw land and coordinate its information and recommendations with the U.S. Defense Department
to help monitor the activities of non-U.S. citizen ownership of real estate in the U.S.
4.ACM recommends the evaluation and implementation of effective foreign real estate purchase policies from
Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and the United Arab
Emirates to protect local, state, and national interests; ensure affordability; and safeguard U.S. national security.
1 CFIUS is an interagency committee responsible for reviewing transactions involving foreign investment in the United States to determine
their effect on national security. CFIUS operates under the authority of the Defense Production Act of 1950 and is chaired by the Secretary
of the Treasury.
11Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY
ANALYSIS
A dovish monetary policy was implemented to
accommodate financial conditions that support
economic growth amid concerns about inflation and a
cooling labor market
FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY
ANALYSIS
A dovish monetary policy was implemented to
accommodate financial conditions that support
economic growth amid concerns about inflation and a
cooling labor market
12Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
➢During the third quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a dovish monetary policy by conveying
that it is primarily interested in easing financial conditions to support economic growth amid concerns about inflation
and a cooling labor market.
➢The Fed reduced the federal funds rate twice during the third quarter of this year:
➢September 18, 2024: 0.50% rate cut lowering the target range to 4.75% to 5.00%; and
➢November 7, 2024: 0.25% rate cut lowering the target range to 4.50% to 4.75%.
➢The Fed most recently implemented a dovish monetary policy in March 2020 in response to the economic fallout from
the COVID-19 pandemic.
➢In 2020, the Fed cut interest rates to near-zero levels and launched a series of measures to support the
economy, including large-scale asset purchases and various lending programs.
➢The Fed was holding the federal funds rate at around zero as recently as the first quarter of 2022.
➢Calls for rate cuts are now a prevalent topic of debate, and the Fed is poised to cut rates by at least another 25 basis
points by the end of the year.
➢ Due to a host of economic factors, the national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed
rate loan began the quarter at 7.14% and ended the quarter at 6.08%.
➢The national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year, fully-amortized fixed rate loan reached an all-
time low of 2.67% on December 17, 2020, and the all-time high of 18.63% in October of 1981.
MONETARY POLICY ACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
➢During the third quarter of this year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a dovish monetary policy by conveying
that it is primarily interested in easing financial conditions to support economic growth amid concerns about inflation
and a cooling labor market.
➢The Fed reduced the federal funds rate twice during the third quarter of this year:
➢September 18, 2024: 0.50% rate cut lowering the target range to 4.75% to 5.00%; and
➢November 7, 2024: 0.25% rate cut lowering the target range to 4.50% to 4.75%.
➢The Fed most recently implemented a dovish monetary policy in March 2020 in response to the economic fallout from
the COVID-19 pandemic.
➢In 2020, the Fed cut interest rates to near-zero levels and launched a series of measures to support the
economy, including large-scale asset purchases and various lending programs.
➢The Fed was holding the federal funds rate at around zero as recently as the first quarter of 2022.
➢Calls for rate cuts are now a prevalent topic of debate, and the Fed is poised to cut rates by at least another 25 basis
points by the end of the year.
➢ Due to a host of economic factors, the national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed
rate loan began the quarter at 7.14% and ended the quarter at 6.08%.
➢The national average mortgage loan interest rate for a 30-year, fully-amortized fixed rate loan reached an all-
time low of 2.67% on December 17, 2020, and the all-time high of 18.63% in October of 1981.
13Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
HOUSING ANALYSIS
METHODOLOGY
Summary of the unique analytical approach and
robust software solution created by Adkins Capital
Management
HOUSING ANALYSIS
METHODOLOGY
Summary of the unique analytical approach and
robust software solution created by Adkins Capital
Management
➢THE ADKINS RESIDENTIAL HOME VALUATION ANALYZER
CALCULATES THE JUSTIFIED MORTGAGE LOAN INTEREST RATE
➢Represents the cost of debt for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage
loan that justifies the home price level with the household income level.
➢Justification based on the assumption that 28% of household income is the largest
amount of money that should be spent to repay the principal and interest costs for
a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
➢THE ADKINS RESIDENTIAL HOME VALUATION ANALYZER
CALCULATES THE JUSTIFIED PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME
➢Represents the percentage of pre-tax household income that justifies the
relationship between the home price level, the household income level, and
the cost of debt for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
➢Justification based on the month-ending national average mortgage loan interest
rate for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
Justified Home Price = Function of (Household Income Level) &
(Percentage of Household Income Allocated to Loan Costs) & (Cost of Debt)
14Adkins Capital Management, LLC.
FINANCED-BASED ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGY
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
CALCULATES THE JUSTIFIED MORTGAGE LOAN INTEREST RATE
➢Represents the cost of debt for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage
loan that justifies the home price level with the household income level.
➢Justification based on the assumption that 28% of household income is the largest
amount of money that should be spent to repay the principal and interest costs for
a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
➢THE ADKINS RESIDENTIAL HOME VALUATION ANALYZER
CALCULATES THE JUSTIFIED PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME
➢Represents the percentage of pre-tax household income that justifies the
relationship between the home price level, the household income level, and
the cost of debt for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
➢Justification based on the month-ending national average mortgage loan interest
rate for a 30-year fully-amortized fixed-rate mortgage loan.
Justified Home Price = Function of (Household Income Level) &
(Percentage of Household Income Allocated to Loan Costs) & (Cost of Debt)
14Adkins Capital Management, LLC.
FINANCED-BASED ANALYTICAL METHODOLOGY
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
15Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
COMPREHENSIVE RESIDENTIAL
HOUSING ANALYSES
45 Out of 60 Cities in the Adkins Home Price
Index Show Overpriced Housing
COMPREHENSIVE RESIDENTIAL
HOUSING ANALYSES
45 Out of 60 Cities in the Adkins Home Price
Index Show Overpriced Housing
TOP FIVE OVERPRICED CITIES IN THE U.S.
➢Based upon the justified percentage of household income amount, 45 cities in the Adkins 60-City Home Price
Index were classified as overpriced for the third quarter of 2024.
➢Los Angeles, San Francisco, Newark, New York City, and Boston were identified as the five most overpriced cities
in the index.
➢In terms of a relative price-level analysis, it is not possible to justify the home price level for the top five overpriced
cities by reducing the 30-year fixed rate mortgage loan interest rate from 6.08% to 0.0%.
➢In addition, in terms of a relative price-level analysis, it is not possible to justify the home price level for the top five
overpriced cities as underpriced, because prospective home buyers would have to spend more than the respective
justified percentage of household income amounts, which fall within the unrealistic range of 75% to 92% of
household income.
16
Adkins 60-
City Home
Price Index
Median
Household
Income
Level
Median
Home Price
Level
Justified
Mortgage
Loan
Interest
Rate
Justified
Percentage
of
Household
Income
Required
Median
Household
Income
Level
Justified
Home Price
Level
Los Angeles $77,456 $980,000 None 92% $253,163 $299,834
San Francisco$119,136 $1,410,000 None 86% $364,245 $461,178
Newark $41,335 $475,000 None 84% $122,707 $160,009
New York City$67,046 $764,000 None 83% $197,364 $259,536
Boston $81,744 $838,000 None 75% $216,480 $316,433
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢Based upon the justified percentage of household income amount, 45 cities in the Adkins 60-City Home Price
Index were classified as overpriced for the third quarter of 2024.
➢Los Angeles, San Francisco, Newark, New York City, and Boston were identified as the five most overpriced cities
in the index.
➢In terms of a relative price-level analysis, it is not possible to justify the home price level for the top five overpriced
cities by reducing the 30-year fixed rate mortgage loan interest rate from 6.08% to 0.0%.
➢In addition, in terms of a relative price-level analysis, it is not possible to justify the home price level for the top five
overpriced cities as underpriced, because prospective home buyers would have to spend more than the respective
justified percentage of household income amounts, which fall within the unrealistic range of 75% to 92% of
household income.
16
Adkins 60-
City Home
Price Index
Median
Household
Income
Level
Median
Home Price
Level
Justified
Mortgage
Loan
Interest
Rate
Justified
Percentage
of
Household
Income
Required
Median
Household
Income
Level
Justified
Home Price
Level
Los Angeles $77,456 $980,000 None 92% $253,163 $299,834
San Francisco$119,136 $1,410,000 None 86% $364,245 $461,178
Newark $41,335 $475,000 None 84% $122,707 $160,009
New York City$67,046 $764,000 None 83% $197,364 $259,536
Boston $81,744 $838,000 None 75% $216,480 $316,433
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
TOP FIVE OVERPRICED CITIES IN THE U.S.
➢In order to justify the median home price level for each city, the median required household
income level would need to increase to a level within the respective range of $122,707 and
$364,245.
➢Based on the median household income level, the quarter ending national average mortgage loan
interest rate, and the assumption that no more than 28% of pre-tax household income should be
spent in order to repay the principal and interest costs of a mortgage loan, the justified home price
level for the top five overpriced cities fell within the respective range of $160,009 and
$461,178.
➢Prospective home buyers should use the Adkins Residential Home Valuation Analyzer in order to
assess the level of overpricing of homes in their community.
17Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins 60-
City Home
Price Index
Median
Household
Income
Level
Median
Home Price
Level
Justified
Mortgage
Loan
Interest
Rate
Justified
Percentage
of
Household
Income
Required
Median
Household
Income
Level
Justified
Home Price
Level
Los Angeles $77,456 $980,000 None 92% $253,163 $299,834
San Francisco$119,136 $1,410,000 None 86% $364,245 $461,178
Newark $41,335 $475,000 None 84% $122,707 $160,009
New York City$67,046 $764,000 None 83% $197,364 $259,536
Boston $81,744 $838,000 None 75% $216,480 $316,433
➢In order to justify the median home price level for each city, the median required household
income level would need to increase to a level within the respective range of $122,707 and
$364,245.
➢Based on the median household income level, the quarter ending national average mortgage loan
interest rate, and the assumption that no more than 28% of pre-tax household income should be
spent in order to repay the principal and interest costs of a mortgage loan, the justified home price
level for the top five overpriced cities fell within the respective range of $160,009 and
$461,178.
➢Prospective home buyers should use the Adkins Residential Home Valuation Analyzer in order to
assess the level of overpricing of homes in their community.
17Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins 60-
City Home
Price Index
Median
Household
Income
Level
Median
Home Price
Level
Justified
Mortgage
Loan
Interest
Rate
Justified
Percentage
of
Household
Income
Required
Median
Household
Income
Level
Justified
Home Price
Level
Los Angeles $77,456 $980,000 None 92% $253,163 $299,834
San Francisco$119,136 $1,410,000 None 86% $364,245 $461,178
Newark $41,335 $475,000 None 84% $122,707 $160,009
New York City$67,046 $764,000 None 83% $197,364 $259,536
Boston $81,744 $838,000 None 75% $216,480 $316,433
TOP FIVE UNDERPRICED CITIES IN THE U.S.
18Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢Based upon the justified percentage of household income amount, 15 cities in the Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index were classified as underpriced for the third quarter of 2024.
➢Detroit, Cleveland, Jackson, Des Moines, and Fargo were identified as the top five most
underpriced cities in the index.
➢In order to classify homes in the top five underpriced cities as overpriced:
➢The national average mortgage loan interest rate would have to increase from 6.08% to more
than the respective justified mortgage loan interest rate amount for each city (8.2% - 19.7%);
or
➢It would have to be deemed imprudent by prospective home buyers to spend as much as the
respective justified percentage of household income amount for each city to repay the costs
of a mortgage loan.
Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index
Median
Household Income
Level
Median Home
Price Level
Justified
Mortgage Loan
Interest Rate
Justified
Percentage of
Household Income
Detroit, MI $85,784 $90,000 19.7% 8%
Cleveland, OH $62,315 $113.000 15.4% 14%
Jackson, MS $39,969 $90,000 12.1% 17%
Des Moines, IA $73,131 $194,000 10.1% 20%
Fargo, ND $92,843 $290,476 8.2% 23%
18Adkins Capital Management LLC. 2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢Based upon the justified percentage of household income amount, 15 cities in the Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index were classified as underpriced for the third quarter of 2024.
➢Detroit, Cleveland, Jackson, Des Moines, and Fargo were identified as the top five most
underpriced cities in the index.
➢In order to classify homes in the top five underpriced cities as overpriced:
➢The national average mortgage loan interest rate would have to increase from 6.08% to more
than the respective justified mortgage loan interest rate amount for each city (8.2% - 19.7%);
or
➢It would have to be deemed imprudent by prospective home buyers to spend as much as the
respective justified percentage of household income amount for each city to repay the costs
of a mortgage loan.
Adkins 60-City
Home Price Index
Median
Household Income
Level
Median Home
Price Level
Justified
Mortgage Loan
Interest Rate
Justified
Percentage of
Household Income
Detroit, MI $85,784 $90,000 19.7% 8%
Cleveland, OH $62,315 $113.000 15.4% 14%
Jackson, MS $39,969 $90,000 12.1% 17%
Des Moines, IA $73,131 $194,000 10.1% 20%
Fargo, ND $92,843 $290,476 8.2% 23%
19Adkins Capital Management LLC.
RESOURCES FOR PROSPECTIVE HOME BUYERS
➢Visit the Adkins Capital Management website to review our comprehensive:
➢Home Price Index
➢Interactive map of city housing analyses
➢News feed of pertinent housing information
➢Housing methodology patent application
➢Reverse mortgage loan analysis
➢Movie catalog of quarterly residential housing market reviews
➢Housing valuation methodology presentations
➢Tactical and strategic residential real estate hedge fund model portfolio
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢Visit Amazon.com to subscribe to use the
Adkins Residential Home Valuation
Analyzer
➢Keyword search: residential real
estate software
➢Watch a 15-minute movie presentation that
provides an overview of the Adkins
Residential Home Valuation Analyzer
RESOURCES FOR PROSPECTIVE HOME BUYERS
➢Visit the Adkins Capital Management website to review our comprehensive:
➢Home Price Index
➢Interactive map of city housing analyses
➢News feed of pertinent housing information
➢Housing methodology patent application
➢Reverse mortgage loan analysis
➢Movie catalog of quarterly residential housing market reviews
➢Housing valuation methodology presentations
➢Tactical and strategic residential real estate hedge fund model portfolio
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
➢Visit Amazon.com to subscribe to use the
Adkins Residential Home Valuation
Analyzer
➢Keyword search: residential real
estate software
➢Watch a 15-minute movie presentation that
provides an overview of the Adkins
Residential Home Valuation Analyzer
THANK YOU!
Adkins Capital Management
residentialrealestateanalysis.com
Segments Produced at the New York Public Library & Business Library
Borough of Manhattan, 5
TH
Avenue and Madison Avenue Locations
New York City, NY, U.S.A.
Contents of this report are the property of Adkins Capital Management. No part of this report may be reproduced,
redistributed, displayed, or transmitted without the written consent from representatives of Adkins Capital Management.
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 20
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
Adkins Capital Management
residentialrealestateanalysis.com
Segments Produced at the New York Public Library & Business Library
Borough of Manhattan, 5
TH
Avenue and Madison Avenue Locations
New York City, NY, U.S.A.
Contents of this report are the property of Adkins Capital Management. No part of this report may be reproduced,
redistributed, displayed, or transmitted without the written consent from representatives of Adkins Capital Management.
Adkins Capital Management LLC. 20
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
2024 Q3 – Residential Housing Market Review
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