20251003_A. Stotz All Weather Strategy - Performance review September 2025.pdf

สรุปมุมมองการลงทุนพอร์ต AWS โดย A. Stotz Investment Research ประจำเดือนตุลาคม 2025

1. Please refer to important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the report
By: Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA, SornsakKongcharoenpanich, and Alexander Wetterling, CIPM 3 October 2025
A. Stotz All Weather Strategy
Global, Long-term, Diversified

2. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
2astotz.com
Global
Long-term
Diversified
GLD

3. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
3astotz.com
«Global–Invests globally, not only Thailand
«Long-term–Gains from long-term equity
return, while trying to reduce a portion of
losses during equity market downturns
«Diversified–Diversified globally across asset
classes, regions, countries, sectors, factors,
and companies
A. Stotz All Weather Strategy

4. 43 October 2025
A. Stotz All Weather Strategy
Gold had an exceptional month
The strategy gained 6.3% in September 2025

5. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
5astotz.com
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Review:Performance of the World stock markets
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. ValuationMasterClass.com/resources/market-stats
Note: Data as of 30 September 2025.
US was up
And Japan was up about
the same
HK was up significantly
more than China A
Europe had a strong
month

6. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
6astotz.com
Update:NVIDIA market cap surpasses
US$4.5trn
Source: X –@stats_feed

7. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
7astotz.com
Update:Global debt hit a new ATH of US$338trn
Source: X –@Barchart

8. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
8astotz.com
Update:US gov’t paid US$1.2trn in interest in
the past year
Source: X –@GlobalMktObserv

9. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
9astotz.com
Update:Gold hit US$3,900/oz t for the first time
in history
Source: X –@Barchart

10. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
10astotz.com
Update:39% of fund managers have no gold
Source: X –@RyanDetrick

11. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
11astotz.com
Update:Silver hit the highest price in 14 years
Source: X –@zerohedge

12. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
12
•NVIDIA market cap surpasses US$4.5trn
•Global debt hit a new ATH of US$338trn
•US gov’t paid US$1.2trn in interest in the
past year
•Gold hit US$3,900/oz t for the first time in
history
•39% of fund managers have no gold
•Silver hit the highest price in 14 years
Key takeaways

13. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
13astotz.com
Weights:70% in Equity, 5% in Bonds, and 25%
in Gold and zero in Commodities
Source: A. StotzInvestment Research
This is not a recommendation or investment advice.
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14. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
14astotz.com
Review:World Equity gained 3.7% in September
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
In 2024, global stocks
gained 18.0%
In 2025YTD, stocks are
up 18.9%
Fed’s 0.25% in
September, and market
expectations about a
further cut in October,
drove global stocks
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15. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
15astotz.com
Review:US was the second-worst performer
within equity in September, still up by 3.0%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 5% target
allocation to US equity
The first rate cut in nine
months led to gains in
US stocks
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16. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
16astotz.com
Review:Developed Europe was the worst
performer in September 2025, up by 0.3%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 5% target
allocation to Developed
Europe equity
The fund we use in the
strategy underperformed
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17. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
17astotz.com
Review:Japan was the fourth-best performer
within equity in September 2025, up by 3.2%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 5% target
allocation to Japan
Stable Tokyo inflation
readings led to expected
slower BoJ hikes, which
supported stocks
The fund we use in the
strategy outperformed
significantly
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18. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
18astotz.com
Review:Emerging Markets ex China was the
best within equity in September, up by 4.9%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 5% target
allocation to Emerging
Markets ex China
Expectations about
further Fed rate cuts that
can lead to a weaker
US$ supported
Emerging Markets equity
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19. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
19astotz.com
Review:APAC ex JP, CN was the second-best
within equity in September, up by 4.3%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 25% target
allocation
The overweight in Korea
continued to outperform
massively
The overweight in
Malaysia did well too,
while Indonesia
underperformed
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20. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
20astotz.com
Review:China was the third-best performer
within equity in September, up by 3.7%
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 25% target
allocation to China
Equity
Chinese stocks gained
on global sentiment
The fund we use in the
strategy outperformed
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21. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
21astotz.com
Review:Global Bonds gained 0.3% in
September2025
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a minimum
target allocation of 5%
Expected further rate
cuts by the Fed drove
Global Bonds
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22. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
22astotz.com
Review:Commodities gained slightly in
September 2025
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had no target
allocation to
Commodities
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23. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
23astotz.com
Review:WTI oil closed September at US$63/bbl
versus US$64/bblin August
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Data as of 30 September 2025.
Oil became cheaper as
supply remained ample
and the global economic
outlook weakened
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24. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
24astotz.com
Review:Precious metals was the strongest
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, TradingView, LSEG.
Note: Price data as of 30 September 2025.
Industrial metals gained,
too
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25. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
25astotz.com
Review:Gold shot up 11.2% in September 2025
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG.
Note: Monthly data as of 30 September 2025.
We had a 25% target
allocation to Gold
Gold closed the month at
US$3,858/oz t
The looming US
government shutdown
and Fed rate cut drove
gold price
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26. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
26astotz.com
Review:All currencies weakened >10% against
Gold in September 2025
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG
Typically, a stronger US$
means a lower Gold
price in US$ and vice
versa
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27. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
27astotz.com
Since inception, the strategy was up 69.7%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
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28. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
28astotz.com
Since inception, the strategy was up 69.7%
and 28.6% above a 60/40 portfolio
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
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29. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
29astotz.com
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Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
In September 2025, the strategy was up 6.3%,
which was 4.2% above the 60/40 portfolio
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
Our 25% allocation to
Gold outperformed
massively
APAC ex JP, CN beat
World Equity, and we
had a 25% target weight
Our 25% allocation to
China performed in line
with MSCI AC World

30. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
30astotz.com
!"#$%&'()*+$,$-.#/0" 123455 1212 1213 1211 1216 121712189:;
!"# $%&' ()&*++++++++++++++ ,&-++++++++++++++++ (-&$++++++++++++++ .'&*/++++++++++++++ '&*++++++++++++++++ ((&,++++++++++++++ (-&$+++++++++
$)01) 1(&( %&)++++++++++++++++ ()&*++++++++++++++ ((&1++++++++++++++ .('&)/++++++++++++ %&$++++++++++++++++ 1&,++++++++++++++++ ()&-+++++++++
<=="='0.-$" 1>?8 3?>'''''''''''''''' (@?6*'''''''''''''' 7?1'''''''''''''''' 4?1'''''''''''''''' (3?>*'''''''''''''' @?2'''''''''''''''' 8?3'''''''''''
Review:The strategy has outperformed a 60/40
portfolio by 5.1% 2025YTD
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *Annualized. Price data as of 30 September 2025
**Performance from AWS' inception 28 Feb 2019 to 31 Dec 2019.
The strategy beat a
60/40 portfolio by 7.0%
in 2024
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
!"#$%&' #()*+$()*+,-(.) /0123/4-5678/9:4-5;4-534-5
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A1>5B$B32%1C26C& =@-),? =()8?=()8?=()8?=*),?=-).?=/)8?
M%1C26C&;12<$9#"23%"#$%&3=>? -)( @)' /)* -)- -)@ +)/ @),

31. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
31astotz.com
Review:Less volatility than a 60/40 portfolio
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
Mostly 25-65% target
weight for equity has
reduced volatility
Since Gold is generally
uncorrelated to equity, it
has reduced the overall
volatility
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee
of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed
or implied, is made regarding future performance.
!"#$
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BKL0@M
744K2/>MM5$J0/2N>/>NOPQR

32. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
32astotz.com
Review:The strategy has lost less than 60/40 on
9 out of the 10 worst global stock market days
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
A key feature of the
strategy is that it aims to
lose less when equity
markets fall
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
!"#$%
!&#&%
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!(#&%
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+!)%
+.
/01
-$2G$3
456789+:96;5+)$+<:8=6.856789>9?@AB=+:C+DE:FAE+5G7>6B!H%

33. 3 October 2025
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
33astotz.com
Review:Outperformed in September 2025, and
has beaten a 60/40 in 61% of months
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, LSEG. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & KKP PGE-H), 40% Bonds
(KT-BOND, SCBGLOB before 7 Mar 2025). The benchmark’s and strategy’s performance is calculated from the
funds’ NAV, which is after mgt fees but doesn’t consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Data as of 30 Sep 2025.
In 48 out of 79 months,
the strategy has
outperformed
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee
of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed
or implied, is made regarding future performance.
!"#$
!"%$
!"F$
!"'$
!"($
!)
!(
!'
!F
!%
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*+,)(-./0)'12+3)'(4/5)'(678)''95J)'F;/<)'%=>?)'#
=@;!8AB!C1M%1NF7J+G!,/J>,3!"H$
!"#$%&'()*+%*,)-$./01/2
!"#$&3-)*()*+%*,)-$./01/2

34. 3 October 2025
DISCLAIMER
IMPORTANT: CONTENT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A SOLICITATION OR RECOMMENDATION
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35. 3 October 2025
DISCLAIMER
IMPORTANT: CONTENT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A SOLICITATION OR RECOMMENDATION
We disclose all conflicts of interest
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36. 3 October 2025
คำจำกัดความรับผิด
คำรับรองของนักวิเคราะห์การลงทุน
นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนตามรายชื่อที่ปรากฏอยู่ในรายงานนี้ขอรับรองว่า (ก) ความคิดเห็นทั้งหมดในรายงานฉบับนี้ถือเป็นความคิดเห็นเฉพาะตัวในการวิเคราะห์เกี่ยวกับหลักทรัพย์และบริษัทต่าง ๆ ใน
หัวข้อหนึ่งหัวข้อใดหรือทั้งหมดที่ถูกกล่าวถึงในรายงานฉบับนี้ และ (ข) ไม่มีส่วนเกี่ยวข้องกับค่าตอบแทนในการวิเคราะห์ที่เคยเกิดขึ้น เกิดขึ้น หรือจะเกิดขึ้น ไม่ว่าจะโดยตรงหรือโดยทางอ้อม ซึ่ง
เกี่ยวข้องกับคำแนะนำหรือความคิดเห็นโดยนักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนในที่นี้
การเปิดเผยข้อมูลที่จำเป็น
นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนหรือผู้ร่วมวิเคราะห์ตามรายชื่อที่ปรากฏอยู่ในรายงานฉบับนี้ ไม่มีส่วนได้เสียทางการเงินในบริษัทที่ถูกกล่าวถึงในรายงานฉบับนี้
คำจำกัดความรับผิด
รายงานฉบับนี้ถูกจัดทำขึ้นเพื่อการใช้งานสำหรับผู้ที่ได้รับซึ่งกำหนดไว้เท่านั้น และห้ามทำซ้ำไม่ว่าทั้งหมดหรือบางส่วน หรือทำการส่งมอบ หรือเผยแพร่ต่อไปยังบุคคลอื่นโดยไม่ได้รับความยินยอม
เป็นลายลักษณ์อักษร และโดยการยอมรับรายงานฉบับนี้ ผู้ที่ได้รับตกลงที่จะผูกพันตามข้อกำหนดและข้อจำกัดที่ได้กำหนดไว้ในที่นี้ข้อมูลที่ปรากฏในรายงานฉบับนี้มาจากแหล่งข้อมูลสาธารณะที่
น่าเชื่อถือ และความคิดเห็นที่ปรากฏนั้นเป็นการอ้างอิงตามข้อมูลดังกล่าว ไม่มีการรับรองหรือรับประกันไม่ว่าโดยชัดแจ้งหรือโดยปริยายว่าข้อมูลหรือความคิดเห็นดังกล่าวนั้นถูกต้อง ครบถ้วน หรือ
ได้รับการยืนยัน อีกทั้ง รายงานฉบับนี้ไม่มีข้อความใดที่แสดงว่ากลยุทธ์ในการลงทุนหรือคำแนะนำนั้นเหมาะสมหรือสมควรกับสถานการณ์ของผู้ที่ได้รับแต่ละราย หรือถือเป็นคำแนะนำส่วนบุคคล
รายงานฉบับนี้ถูกเผยแพร่เพื่อวัตถุประสงค์เป็นเพียงการให้ข้อมูลเท่านั้น ไม่ถือเป็นการโฆษณา หนังสือชี้ชวน หรือเอกสารการเสนออื่นใด หรือข้อเสนอ หรือการเชิญชวนให้ทำการซื้อหรือขาย
หลักทรัพย์หรือเครื่องมือทางการเงินที่เกี่ยวข้องในขอบเขตใด ๆ ก็ตาม ข้อมูลและความคิดเห็นที่ปรากฏในรายงานฉบับนี้ถูกเผยแพร่เพื่อใช้สำหรับการอ้างอิงของผู้ที่ได้รับ และไม่ควรยึดถือโดย
ปราศจากการตรวจสอบโดยผู้ที่ได้รับด้วยตนเอง หรือนำมาใช้แทนการตัดสินใจของผู้ที่ได้รับด้วยตนเอง ความคิดเห็นทั้งหมดที่ปรากฏอยู่ในที่นี้เป็นความเห็นของนักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนที่มีรายชื่อใน
รายงานฉบับนี้ ซึ่งอาจมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงได้โดยไม่ต้องแจ้งให้ทราบล่วงหน้า และไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อใช้เป็นพื้นฐานในการประเมินใด ๆเกี่ยวกับหลักทรัพย์และบริษัทที่ถูกกล่าวถึงในรายงานฉบับ
นี้แต่อย่างใด การอ้างอิงถึงผลการดำเนินงานในอดีตไม่ถือเป็นเครื่องบ่งชี้ถึงผลการดำเนินงานในอนาคต นักวิเคราะห์การลงทุนไม่ยอมรับในความรับผิดใด ๆ สำหรับการสูญเสียไม่ว่าโดยตรงหรือเป็น
ผลสืบเนื่องที่เกิดขึ้นจากการใช้ข้อมูลที่ปรากฏอยู่ในรายงานฉบับนี้
รายงานฉบับนี้จัดทำขึ้นสำหรับนักลงทุนมืออาชีพ และได้ทำการเผยแพร่ให้กับบุคคลที่ประกอบธุรกิจเกี่ยวกับการได้มา จำหน่าย หรือการถือครองหลักทรัพย์ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นตัวการหรือตัวแทน
ห้ามทำการเผยแพร่หรือตีพิมพ์รายงานฉบับนี้ในสถานที่อื่นใดให้แก่บุคคลที่ไม่ได้รับอนุญาตภายใต้กฎหมายหรือข้อบังคับที่เกี่ยวข้องในสถานที่ดังกล่าวโดยเด็ดขาด
ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลสำคัญของกองทุนโดยเฉพาะนโยบายกองทุน ความเสี่ยง และผลการดำเนินงานของกองทุน โดยสามารถขอข้อมูลจากผู้แนะนำก่อนตัดสินใจลงทุน | ผลการดำเนินงานในอดีต
และผลการเปรียบเทียบผลการดำเนินงานที่เกี่ยวข้องกับผลิตภัณฑ์ในตลาดทุน มิได้เป็นสิ่งยืนยันถึงผลการดำเนินงานในอนาคต | ผู้ลงทุนอาจมีความเสี่ยงจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน เนื่องจากการป้องกัน
ความเสี่ยงขึ้นอยู่กับดุลยพินิจของผู้จัดการกองทุน| ข้อมูลและการคาดการณ์ที่ปรากฏในบทความนี้จัดทำขึ้นจากแหล่งข้อมูลในอดีตร่วมกับการวิเคราะห์ปัจจัยพื้นฐาน แต่ทั้งนี้ไม่อาจรับรองความ
สมบูรณ์แท้จริงและความแม่นยำของการวิเคราะห์ข้อมูลในอนาคตได้ | สอบถามข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมหรือขอรับหนังสือชี้ชวนได้ที่บริษัทหลักทรัพย์นายหน้าซื้อขายหน่วยลงทุน ฟินโนมีนา จำกัด ในช่วงเวลา
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