22 July Rand Russian escalation patterns.pdf

Rand Corporation Geopolitical report

2. [Preconditions for this pathway, such a
‘comprehensive sanctions on Russia and

military assistance to Ukraine,
already exist}

+ Poitical pressure for intervention in Ukrain
nt à NATO member state

ng-range strike capabilties a

sm flank member states.

olunteers from NATO member states parti

+ Russian conventional capabilties are significant

+ NATO members transfer more-powertul
capabilties to Ukrainian miltary
co is Convinced that hating alles
sistance to Ukraine is necessar
avoid defeat.

+ Domestic instabilty in Russia incre
+ The Kremlin perceives a Western role in
fomenting the unrest.

‘+ Russia eventually deci al
NATO measures that are already being implemente
reoccupation with war in Ukraine might
layed the respons:

«+ Such an escalation would likely begin with
non-kinetic attacks,

id first try non-kineti
logistics nodes or une

ercive effect.

ation c th non-kinetie attacks
IE NAT tic conflict isp

4. The most acute risk of a Russian decision to eacalsie
dicollyio a kinciio sire on NATO alice would regul
from Moscow peroelving that large-scale, rest NAIO
ataca on Russian mary foes in Ueure are

7. Russian leaders see sniigovernment proiceis as a key
element of a potential Weslem-bacied campaign ip
overttvvow ther regime.

8. A Russis-NAIO wer is far ftom an inviable outcome of
the current conflict. US. and lied poligymelers should

fit een) eeion wil ental ecu exertion ave.

9. vein