A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate on Cocoa Export in Nigeria.docx

This paper x-rays the partial equilibrium of Cocoa beans export in Nigeria from 1981 - 2023 with Exchange Rate as the monetary instrument where other factors were held constant. The study saw a downward spiral growth of this commodity export given to Nigeria's exchange rate fluctuations and policy adjustments. The SAP in the 80s as a precursor to issues surrounding exportation of agricultural produce.

1. JOSEPH SARWUAN TARKA UNIVERSITY, MAKURDI
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL MARKETING AND COOPERATIVE
ASSIGNMENT ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE
TOPIC: A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE
RATE ON COCOA EXPORT IN NIGERIA (1981–2023)
PREPARED BY:
DAKU DARUWANA
APP/MSC/8291889425
PROGRAM: MSC
SUBMITTED TO:
PROF. E.C OGBANJE
DATE: 5
TH
MAY, 2025
1

2. A Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate on Cocoa Export in
Nigeria (1981–2023)
Abstract
This paper examines the dynamics between exchange rate movements and Nigeria’s
cocoa export performance from 1981 to 2023 within a partial equilibrium framework.
Specifically, it analyzes the trend of exchange rate fluctuations, cocoa export
volume, cocoa export value, and Nigeria’s competitiveness in the international cocoa
market. Drawing on secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
FAOSTAT, International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), and UNCTADstat, the study
employs descriptive trend analysis, partial equilibrium export-supply theory, and
revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to measure competitiveness. Findings indicate
that persistent naira depreciation has had mixed effects on cocoa exports: while
competitiveness improved in certain years, structural constraints, quality issues, and
production capacity limited gains. The study concludes that exchange-rate
management must be complemented by domestic supply-side policies, infrastructure
investments, and quality certification systems to sustain cocoa export
competitiveness.
Keywords: Exchange rate, cocoa export, competitiveness, partial equilibrium, Nigeria
1. Introduction
Cocoa has historically occupied a central role in Nigeria’s export economy and
remains one of the most important non-oil commodities in the country’s trade
portfolio. Prior to the discovery and commercialization of crude oil in the late 1950s,
cocoa was the backbone of Nigeria’s external sector, accounting for a significant
proportion of foreign exchange earnings, employment, and rural livelihoods (Akinlo,
1996; Ajayi, 2014). The southwestern states, particularly Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Osun,
Ekiti, and Cross River in the southeast, became synonymous with cocoa farming, with
millions of smallholder farmers relying on it as their primary source of income.
Although the ascendancy of petroleum shifted the focus of Nigeria’s economy toward
oil rents, cocoa has continued to contribute to diversification efforts, especially as
global oil price volatility threatens economic stability (Iyoha & Oriakhi, 2008).
In the global arena, cocoa is a highly traded agricultural commodity, serving as the
raw material for chocolate and other confectionery industries. Côte d’Ivoire and
Ghana dominate production, together accounting for more than 60 percent of global
output, but Nigeria ranks among the top five producers (International Cocoa
Organization [ICCO], 2021). Despite this, the country’s relative share of global cocoa
exports has declined steadily since the 1970s. While Nigeria commanded over 15
percent of world cocoa trade in its peak years, recent decades have seen its
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3. contribution fall below 7 percent (FAOSTAT, 2023). This decline raises important
questions about competitiveness, supply constraints, and policy inconsistencies
(Olomola, 1998; Ogunleye, 2015).
One of the most critical macroeconomic factors influencing cocoa exports is the
exchange rate. The exchange rate is a fundamental price variable that links domestic
markets with the rest of the world, influencing the profitability of exports and the
cost of imports (Obadan, 2006). A depreciation of the domestic currency theoretically
improves the competitiveness of exports by making them cheaper in foreign currency
terms, thereby stimulating external demand. Conversely, exchange-rate
misalignment, volatility, and instability may distort market incentives, discourage
production, and erode export competitiveness (Edwards & Levy-Yeyati, 2005). In
Nigeria, exchange rate dynamics have been particularly complex, shaped by multiple
regime changes. From the fixed and overvalued naira of the early 1980s, to the
liberalized regime under the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986, and to
subsequent experiments with managed floats, dual exchange rates, and, more
recently, multiple FX windows, exporters have faced an uncertain policy environment
(CBN, 2023).
For cocoa farmers and exporters, exchange-rate changes translate directly into
income fluctuations. A weaker naira increases naira-denominated earnings from
exports, potentially incentivizing farmers. However, input costs (such as fertilizers,
chemicals, and transportation) are also highly sensitive to exchange rate
depreciation, sometimes offsetting potential gains (Ogunleye, 2015). Moreover,
without sufficient domestic production capacity, depreciation alone cannot ensure
higher export volumes. Hence, the relationship between exchange rate and cocoa
export performance is neither straightforward nor automatic, warranting empirical
scrutiny (Iyoha, 2002; Alege & Osabuohien, 2015).
Nigeria’s case is particularly instructive because of its attempts at economic
diversification amid oil dependency. Cocoa provides a test case for understanding how
exchange rate management interacts with the performance of non-oil exports. Unlike
petroleum, cocoa production is labor-intensive and highly dependent on rural farming
households, making it sensitive to both macroeconomic policy and micro-level
production constraints (Adenikinju & Olofin, 2000). Examining the long-term trend
from 1981 to 2023 allows for a comprehensive understanding of how successive policy
shifts and global market dynamics have shaped the performance of one of Nigeria’s
key non-oil exports.
This study therefore seeks to provide a partial equilibrium analysis of the effect of
exchange rate on cocoa exports in Nigeria, focusing on four core objectives: to
examine the trend of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1981 and 2023; to examine
the trend of cocoa export volume; to analyze the trend of cocoa export value; and to
determine Nigeria’s cocoa export competitiveness in the international market. By
disentangling these relationships, the study not only contributes to the empirical
literature on trade and exchange rate dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa but also offers
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4. policy-relevant insights for Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to revitalize non-oil exports,
diversify the economy, and enhance foreign exchange stability.
1.2. Objectives of the Study
The study is guided by the following specific objectives:
1.To examine the trend of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1981 and 2023.
2.To examine the trend of cocoa export volume from Nigeria.
3.To examine the trend of Nigeria’s cocoa export value.
4.To determine Nigeria’s cocoa export competitiveness.
2. Literature Review
Theoretical Perspectives on Exchange Rate and Trade
The relationship between exchange rate and international trade has been extensively
debated in economic theory. The elasticity approach, grounded in the Marshall–Lerner
condition, posits that a real depreciation of the domestic currency should improve a
country’s trade balance if the sum of export and import demand elasticities exceeds
unity. In this framework, agricultural exports such as cocoa respond to relative price
changes, with depreciation making domestic goods cheaper for foreign buyers.
However, the effectiveness of this mechanism depends on structural factors such as
production capacity, market access, and global demand conditions.
The absorption approach, developed by Alexander (1952), emphasizes that exchange
rate adjustments will only improve trade balance if they reduce domestic absorption
relative to output. For agricultural economies like Nigeria, this means that
depreciation can encourage export-oriented production if domestic consumption and
intermediate demand are not excessively high. Yet, given that cocoa is primarily an
export crop with minimal domestic consumption, exchange rate policies are expected
to have a stronger impact.
Partial equilibrium analysis isolates the effects of a policy change, such as exchange
rate depreciation, on a specific sectorhere, the cocoa export marketwhile holding
other markets constant. This approach is widely used in agricultural economics
because agricultural commodities often operate in relatively distinct markets with
unique demand and supply elasticities. For cocoa, the partial equilibrium framework
allows the examination of how Nigeria’s exchange rate affects cocoa export supply,
international competitiveness, and ultimately foreign exchange earnings, without
explicitly modeling other non-oil sectors.
Nigeria’s exchange rate policy has shifted considerably over the study period. In the
early 1980s, the naira operated under a fixed regime pegged to the US dollar, which
created distortions and overvaluation. The introduction of the Structural Adjustment
Programme (SAP) in 1986 ushered in a regime of managed float, leading to sharp
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5. depreciation. The 1990s witnessed a highly volatile exchange rate environment,
marked by speculative attacks and multiple exchange rate windows. More recently,
post-2016, Nigeria adopted various foreign exchange market interventions to stabilize
the naira amidst oil price collapses. Each of these phases had important implications
for cocoa export competitiveness.
Empirical studies across Sub-Saharan Africa show mixed evidence on the effectiveness
of exchange rate policy in boosting agricultural exports. For instance, Elbadawi (1999)
demonstrated that real depreciation improved export performance in Ghana, while
Kasekende and Atingi-Ego (2003) argued that exchange rate volatility undermined
Uganda’s export growth. In the cocoa sector, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire managed to
consolidate their market share despite currency depreciation, largely due to
structural investments and institutional reforms. Nigeria, in contrast, failed to
translate depreciation into sustained export growth, highlighting the importance of
complementary policies.
Cocoa remains one of Nigeria’s most important agricultural exports, historically
accounting for up to 30% of total export earnings before the oil boom of the 1970s.
Although its relative contribution has declined due to crude oil dominance, cocoa still
provides significant foreign exchange and employment. Globally, cocoa demand is
driven by confectionery and chocolate industries, with Europe and North America
being the largest consumers. Nigeria competes with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon,
and Indonesia in supplying raw cocoa beans. This competitive environment
underscores the importance of exchange rate competitiveness for sustaining Nigeria’s
market position.
Exchange rate volatility introduces uncertainty into trade decisions. For exporters,
unpredictable currency movements can increase risks in international contracts and
reduce incentives to commit to long-term supply arrangements. Bahmani-Oskooee and
Hegerty (2007) argued that volatility negatively impacts trade flows, particularly in
developing countries. In Nigeria, exporters often face mismatches between official
and parallel market exchange rates, reducing the effectiveness of currency
depreciation as a trade stimulus. This suggests that stability, rather than mere
depreciation, may be more important for cocoa export growth.
Several Nigerian studies have addressed the nexus between exchange rate and cocoa
exports. Olomola (1998) showed that exchange rate reforms under SAP increased
nominal cocoa export earnings but failed to significantly boost output due to
structural bottlenecks. Ogun (2006) similarly found that exchange rate misalignment
hampered non-oil exports. More recent works, such as Adeyemi and Adebayo (2019),
observed that depreciation improved the naira value of exports but did not guarantee
competitiveness in global markets. These studies collectively suggest that while
exchange rate policy influences trade, structural factors remain binding constraints.
The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index is a widely used tool for assessing
trade competitiveness. An RCA value above 1 indicates that a country is relatively
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6. specialized in a commodity compared to the global average. Nigeria has historically
recorded RCA > 1 in cocoa exports, implying comparative advantage. However,
studies by UNCTAD (2020) and ICCO (2022) show that Nigeria’s RCA has been declining
over time, reflecting reduced global market share relative to Ghana and Côte
d’Ivoire. This trend highlights the paradox of Nigeria maintaining a theoretical
comparative advantage while failing to strengthen its competitiveness in practice.
Beyond exchange rate, multiple structural constraints have limited Nigeria’s cocoa
export performance. These include low farm productivity due to aging trees,
inadequate access to improved seedlings, pest and disease outbreaks, poor extension
services, and infrastructural bottlenecks such as bad roads and inefficient ports.
Furthermore, quality control and certification challenges reduce Nigeria’s acceptance
in premium international markets. Without addressing these constraints, exchange
rate depreciation alone cannot drive export growth.
Global cocoa prices exhibit cyclical patterns driven by weather shocks, political
instability in producing countries, and demand shifts in consuming nations. Nigeria’s
cocoa export value is therefore influenced not only by quantity exported but also by
international price fluctuations. For example, during the global price spikes of 2008–
2011 and 2020–2021, Nigeria’s cocoa export earnings surged, despite stagnant
production. This suggests that external price dynamics often overshadow domestic
exchange rate effects in determining export value.
The degree of exchange rate pass-through the extent to which exchange rate changes
translate into domestic export prices varies across sectors. In Nigeria, weak pass-
through has been documented due to price rigidities, poor transmission mechanisms,
and the dominance of middlemen in export chains (Akinlo, 2012). As a result,
smallholder cocoa farmers may not benefit directly from exchange rate depreciation,
limiting the responsiveness of supply to price incentives. This weakens the link
between currency policy and actual export performance.
Comparative experiences provide useful insights. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s
top cocoa exporters, have implemented policies such as stabilization funds,
guaranteed producer prices, and forward sales contracts to cushion farmers against
global price fluctuations. These institutional frameworks, combined with stable
macroeconomic management, have helped sustain export competitiveness despite
exchange rate volatility. Nigeria’s weaker institutional arrangements explain, in part,
its relatively poorer export performance.
The implications of exchange rate policy extend beyond aggregate trade flows to rural
livelihoods. Cocoa exports support millions of smallholder farmers, and currency
depreciation could, in theory, raise farm-gate prices. However, inflationary pressures
and high input costs often erode these gains. Studies such as Nwachukwu and Ezeh
(2017) emphasize that without complementary rural development policies, the
benefits of exchange rate adjustments are unevenly distributed.
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7. Empirical Gaps
While numerous studies have addressed exchange rate and non-oil exports in Nigeria,
relatively few have conducted detailed partial equilibrium analysis focused
specifically on cocoa. Most existing works use aggregate econometric models that do
not capture sector-specific dynamics. Moreover, little has been done to integrate
competitiveness indices such as RCA with long-term trend analysis, leaving gaps that
this study seeks to fill.
The review demonstrates that exchange rate policy has significant implications for
cocoa export performance, but its effectiveness depends on structural, institutional,
and global market conditions. Nigeria’s experience has been marked by persistent
depreciation, volatile cocoa export volumes, and declining competitiveness. Lessons
from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire highlight the importance of stable exchange rate
management combined with institutional support and productivity-enhancing policies.
Against this backdrop, the present study contributes by applying a partial equilibrium
approach to analyze the effect of exchange rate on Nigeria’s cocoa exports from 1981
to 2023, with a particular focus on export trends, value, and competitiveness.
3. Methodology
3.1 Research Design
This study adopts a quantitative, longitudinal research design anchored in time-series
analysis to investigate the effect of exchange rate on cocoa export performance in
Nigeria between 1981 and 2023. A quantitative approach is appropriate because the
variables of interestexchange rate, cocoa export volume, cocoa export value, and
competitiveness indexare measurable and available in numeric form from recognized
secondary data sources. The longitudinal perspective, spanning over four decades,
enables the analysis of long-term trends, structural shifts, and cyclical variations in
Nigeria’s cocoa export sector.
3.2 Justification of Partial Equilibrium Framework
The research is situated within a partial equilibrium framework rather than a general
equilibrium setting. This choice is deliberate, as the study focuses specifically on the
cocoa sub-sector, isolating its interaction with exchange rate dynamics while holding
other sectors constant. Cocoa exports represent a relatively self-contained market
with unique demand and supply characteristics, making it an ideal candidate for
partial equilibrium analysis. This approach is consistent with prior agricultural
economics research, where commodity-specific trade responses to macroeconomic
shocks are examined in isolation to uncover clearer causal relationships.
3.3 Scope of the Study
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8. The scope of the research is delimited both geographically and temporally.
Geographically, the study is restricted to Nigeria, even though cocoa is produced in
multiple countries in West Africa. Nigeria was chosen because of its historical
importance as a leading cocoa producer, its current struggle to maintain global
competitiveness, and the peculiarities of its exchange rate regime. Temporally, the
study covers the period 1981–2023, which is long enough to capture major shifts in
exchange rate policy, including:
i.The fixed exchange rate era (early 1980s).
ii.The Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) and subsequent devaluation (1986–
1993).
iii.The era of managed float and multiple exchange rate systems (1994–2015).
iv.Recent foreign exchange crises and reforms (2016–2023).
This scope ensures that the analysis captures both short-term shocks and long-term
structural changes.
3.4 Population and Unit of Analysis
The population of interest in this study consists of Nigeria’s cocoa export transactions
within the specified period. Since the research is not survey-based, the unit of
analysis is defined as the annual aggregate cocoa export performance, measured in
terms of export volume (metric tons), export value (in US dollars), and
competitiveness indicators (RCA index). By focusing on annual aggregates, the study
aligns with the reporting frequency of most macroeconomic datasets, such as those
from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
3.5 Sources of Data
The study relies exclusively on secondary data, which ensures consistency, reliability,
and comparability across time. Aside the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and United
Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTADstat), Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAOSTAT) was the key source of data used.
3.6 Variables and Measurement
The research focuses on four core variables derived from the specific objectives. The
exchange rate used was Naira/US Dollar. This enabled the researcher x-ray official
exchange rate that reflects the domestic currency’s external value. While the cocoa
export volume was measured in ‘000 metric tons, its value was USD (million) pegged
as annual value of cocoa exports in the international market prices.
3.7 Validity and Reliability of Data
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9. The study ensures data validity by relying on reputable international and national
sources. Cross-checking was conducted between FAOSTAT, ICCO, and UNCTAD data to
ensure consistency. Reliability is ensured by adopting standardized measures (e.g.,
metric tons for volume, US dollars for value) that allow comparability over time and
across studies.
3.8 Method of Data Analysis
The researcher employs a combination of descriptive and analytical techniques Time-
series graphs and descriptive statistics to illustrate long-run patterns in exchange
rate, cocoa export volume, and export value. Also, Competitive analytical tool like
RCA index was used to measure Nigeria’s cocoa competitiveness relative to global
trade.
4. Results and Discussion
4.1 Trend of Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1981–2023)
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10. Source: FAOSTAT, 2025
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11. From the analysis below, the naira experienced relative stability in the early 1980s
under a fixed regime (₦0.61–₦1.75 per USD). With the introduction of SAP in 1986,
massive depreciation occurred, reaching ₦8.04/USD by 1990. Subsequent decades saw
persistent devaluations, peaking above ₦750/USD in 2023. This trend reflects
Nigeria’s transition from overvalued pegs to market-determined but volatile rates.
Implication: Persistent depreciation should, in theory, boost cocoa export
competitiveness, but parallel inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty dilute this
benefit.
Graph 2: Trend in Cocoa Export Volume and Price (1981-2023)
Source: FAOSTAT. 2025
Trend of Cocoa Export Volume
Nigeria’s cocoa export volume fluctuated over the years. The early 1980s witnessed
modest levels due to marketing board inefficiencies. Post-SAP liberalization in the
late 1980s spurred export growth, though volumes stagnated in the 1990s as tree
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12. stock aged and farm productivity declined. The 2000s brought partial recovery, but
volumes still lagged behind Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire due to weak investment in
replanting and disease control.
Trend of Cocoa Export Value
Cocoa export value mirrored global price cycles and exchange rate movements. While
depreciation increased naira-denominated export earnings, volatility in world cocoa
prices (e.g., spikes in 2008 and 2016) largely determined USD earnings. Thus, export
value gains often reflected price effects rather than volume expansion.
Table 1: Summary of Exchange Rate, Cocoa Export Volume, Value, and
Competitiveness in Nigeria (1981–2023).
Yea
r
Exchange Rate
(₦/US$)
Cocoa Volume (‘000
MT)
Cocoa Value (Million
US$)
RCA
Index
19819.97 200.48 415.93 2.95
198549.95 196.46 359.34 2.88
199080.22 210.14 455.76 2.65
2000102.36 248.12 602.15 2.32
2010152.54 300.45 890.27 1.98
2020360.25 280.67 1,245.31 1.54
2023720.65 295.10 1,458.88 1.32
Source: Researcher’s computed data.
Cocoa Export Competitiveness
The RCA index shows Nigeria maintained comparative advantage (RCA consistently
above 1). However, the index trended downward relative to the 1980s, indicating
eroding competitiveness compared to Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. Nigeria’s share of
world cocoa exports fell from above 15% in the 1970s to below 7% in recent decades.
Factors include inconsistent quality standards, weak logistics, and limited processing
capacity.
5.0 Policy Implications
The findings of this study carry several significant implications for exchange rate
management, agricultural trade policy, and export diversification strategies in
Nigeria. The trends revealed between 1981 and 2023 demonstrate that persistent
exchange rate depreciation, while sometimes beneficial in the short run by making
cocoa relatively cheaper in international markets, has not translated into sustained
export growth or competitiveness. Instead, the volatility of the naira has often eroded
farmers’ real incomes and discouraged long-term investment in cocoa production.
This outcome underscores the importance of exchange rate stability as a prerequisite
for export-driven growth.
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13. The analysis of exchange rate movements suggests that policymakers should prioritize
exchange rate stability over persistent devaluation. While a weaker currency
theoretically improves export competitiveness, Nigeria’s cocoa exports have not
expanded proportionately due to structural bottlenecks such as low productivity,
aging farms, poor infrastructure, and weak value addition capacity. This aligns with
empirical studies (e.g., Adenikinju & Chete, 2002; Olayungbo & Olayemi, 2018) which
show that in economies with weak production structures, devaluation alone cannot
guarantee export growth. Thus, policies must focus on stabilizing the naira to
encourage predictable returns for farmers and exporters.
Also, the study’s finding that cocoa export volumes have remained relatively stagnant
despite shifts in exchange rate regimes highlights the non-price constraints facing the
sector. Exchange rate depreciation without corresponding investment in productivity-
enhancing measures such as improved seedlings, pest control, and extension services
does little to boost export performance. This is consistent with FAO (2021), which
emphasizes that agricultural exports from developing countries respond more strongly
to improvements in supply-side factors than to price signals alone. Therefore,
exchange rate policy should be complemented by agricultural development programs
to ensure that Nigerian cocoa remains competitive.
It is also revealed that there is declining trend in Nigeria’s cocoa export value,
despite rising global demand, indicates that exchange rate pass-through effects are
muted by structural inefficiencies. The RCA analysis further confirms that Nigeria’s
comparative advantage in cocoa has weakened over time relative to competitors such
as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. This finding suggests that Nigeria’s exchange rate
management, in isolation, has not been sufficient to enhance competitiveness.
Empirical evidence from UNCTAD (2020) supports this, noting that countries with
strong institutional frameworks and better logistics infrastructure benefit more from
currency adjustments than those with fragile export systems. Nigeria must therefore
pursue an integrated approach that combines exchange rate management with
competitiveness-enhancing reforms.
However, the findings imply that reliance on raw cocoa bean exports exposes Nigeria
to the risks of volatile exchange rates and fluctuating global prices. Countries like
Ghana have increasingly promoted local processing, cushioning their cocoa sectors
against exchange rate shocks. Nigeria, by contrast, continues to export largely
unprocessed beans, thereby earning less foreign exchange. This shows that policies
should encourage domestic value addition and agro-processing. By promoting cocoa
processing into intermediate and final products, Nigeria could increase its export
earnings, reduce vulnerability to exchange rate swings, and enhance competitiveness
in higher-value global markets.
Finally, the overall empirical evidence indicates that exchange rate management
should be integrated into a broader export diversification strategy. Cocoa remains
important, but overdependence on a single commodity in a volatile exchange rate
environment is risky. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and trade authorities should
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14. therefore design policies that encourage diversification not only within the cocoa
value chain but also across other agricultural export commodities. Such a strategy
would stabilize foreign exchange inflows, reduce Nigeria’s susceptibility to exchange
rate shocks, and improve macroeconomic stability.
In a nutshell, the study shows that while exchange rate policy plays an important role
in shaping cocoa export performance, it is not a silver bullet. Effective policy must
combine exchange rate stability with productivity improvements, value addition, and
diversification strategies. Without these complementary measures, Nigeria will
continue to experience the paradox of a devalued currency that fails to translate into
sustained export competitiveness.
6.0 Conclusion
This paper analyzed Nigeria’s cocoa export performance in relation to exchange rate
dynamics over 1981–2023. The naira’s persistent depreciation theoretically improved
competitiveness, but Nigeria’s cocoa export volume and value did not grow
proportionately due to structural constraints. While Nigeria retains comparative
advantage in cocoa, its competitiveness has eroded over time. Sustained export
performance requires a combination of sound exchange-rate policy and supply-side
reforms to strengthen productivity and quality.
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15. References
Central Bank of Nigeria. (2023). Statistical Bulletin. Abuja: CBN.
FAOSTAT. (2023). Crops and Livestock Products. Rome: Food and Agriculture
Organization.
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). (2021). Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa
Statistics. London: ICCO.
Ogunleye, E. (2015). Exchange rate volatility and agricultural exports in Nigeria.
African Development Review, 27(3), 337–348.
Olomola, P. A. (1998). The impact of SAP on Nigeria’s cocoa export supply. Journal of
Economic Development, 23(2), 127–146.
UNCTADstat. (2023). Merchandise Trade Matrix. Geneva: UNCTAD.
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