A Vision of Viksit Bharat by Arvind Virmani

Arvind Virmani's A Vision of Viksit Bharat outlines a roadmap for India's economic growth, emphasizing innovation, self-reliance, and global competitiveness. His vision focuses on structural reforms, digital transformation, and inclusive development to make India a developed nation by 2047. Know more here- https://www.ipa-india.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Session-1_-Keynote-Address.pdf

1. Dr. Arvind Virmani
(@dravirmani)
Member, NITI Aayog

2. Introduction
How are we positioned for the future?
Relative Per capita GDP & PcGdp growth
Employment, Poverty, Income distribution
Opportunity & challenge: Global
Demographic Changes: WAP
De-monopolization of manufactured exports
Services unbundling/fragmentation
Challenges & opportunities: Domestic
Quality of Basic education & skilling
Bureaucratic Socialism legacy
Digital, Phygital, Hybrid, Expert systems, AI
Projected outcomes: Growth, welfare
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3. Where do we stand?
Growth rate
Employment & wages
Poverty
Social Indicators
Relative to our PCGDP (LMIC)
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4. India: Accelerating growth
.
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R² = 0.2363
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
India's Per capita GDP growth rate, relative to World and China
India-World India-china(base)Trend: Ind-WrldTrend: Ind-Ch

5. Growth of Employment (man-days) & Real Wage rate (ASI)
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6. Employment, Wages, Skills
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46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Worker Population Ratio (WPR, %)
WPR-US WPR-CWS
Linear (WPR-US) Linear (WPR-CWS) SimpleCompound
Worker/Population
Crnt Wkly Status:CWS3.4% 3.3%
Rural female11.7% 11.2%
Ususal Status: US3.7% 3.7%
Rural female12.2% 11.9%
WPR
Casual workers 0.6% 0.6%
Self employed 5.1% 5.3%
Regular employe 1.5% 1.5%
Real wages
Casual workers 2.8% 2.8%
Self employed 0.6% 0.6%
Regular wage worker-0.4% -0.4%
Average AY18 to AY23
Average growth rate
Employment & Wages AY18 to AY24

7. Poverty & distribution
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.2011-122022-23ChangeBBV(2019-20Tendulkar
In 2011–12 prices 2017-18 prices
$1.9 PPP/day/person $2.15 PPP
All India 12.2% 2.3% -9.9% 2.2% 2.4%
Rural 12.6% 2.6% -10.0% 2.7%
Urban 10.7% 1.4% -9.3% 1.7%
$3.2 PPP/day/person
All India 53.6%21.8%-31.8%23.3%
Rural 59.7%24.0%-35.7%
Urban 40.1%15.6%-24.5%
Gini Co-efficient
Total 31.4
Rural 28.7 27.0 -1.7
Urban 36.7 31.9 -4.8
Consumption: Top 5%/Bottom 5%
Rural 8.6 7.3 -1.3
Urban 14.7 10.0 -4.7
Note: International poverty lines as defined in 2011-12 prices & exchange rate
Source: Bhalla & Bhasin, Economic & political weekly, July 13, 2024, Vol LIX, No. 28.
Calculations of GINI & top5%/bottom5% by author based on HECS 2011-12 & 2022-03
Poverty in India: Head Count ratio (HCR)

8. Opportunity, Weakness
Demographics
Basic Ed, Job skills: Quality of teaching/training
Technology, R&D & Innovation
Supply Chain De-risking
Economic risk (PRC manfDuopoly/monopoly)
Domestic security risk (3Cs)
National Security (High Tech, critical minerals)
E-services: Unbundling of Services
Skill for India, Skill for the World
Digital, Blended/Hybrid: Expert systems, AI
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9. Demography & Comparative advantage
World share of Working
Age Population (WAP)
Decline from 2020-2050
HICs: USA, EU, UK, Japan, S
Korea, Taiwan; Russia
MICs: China, Thailand,
Mexico, Indonesia; Viet Nam
Increase in India(18.6/19.0)
Comparative advantage
Low skill (~PRC’08); 2024-2030
Med/Semi-skilled (2031-45)
High skill intensive 2046+
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.2020-19902050-2020199020202050
1High income countries (HICs) 12.0 9.0
2USA -1.0 -0.5 5.3 4.2 3.8
3W Europe-1.4 -0.6 3.8 2.4 1.8
4UK -0.3 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.7
5Japan -1.3 -0.6 2.7 1.5 0.9
6S Korea -0.2 -0.4 1.0 0.7 0.4
7Taiwan -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2
8Russia -1.2 -0.7 3.1 1.9 1.3
9Upper middle income countries 27.7 19.0
10China -3.4 -7.8 23.520.112.3
11Thailand-0.1 -0.4 1.1 1.0 0.6
12Indonesia0.3 -0.2 3.3 3.6 3.5
13Mexico 0.3 -0.1 1.4 1.6 1.5
14Lower Middle Income countries (LMICs)
15Viet nam0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.1
16India 2.9 0.3 15.418.318.6
Change in share(%pt)Share of world WAP (%)
Country share of World's 20-59 yr olds (WAP)

10. Manufactured Exports, VA
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3.5
5.5
7.5
9.5
11.5
13.5
15.5
17.5
19.5
21.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Share in World Manfexports (%)
China
Germany
USA
Japan
Poly. (China)0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MVA (%)
Years
Country Share of MVA (% world MVA)
China USA Japan
Germany Korea, Rep. India

11. Monopolization of Manfexport0.0
19.3
21.1
19.3
10.5
17.5
8.8
3.5
0.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 to 15>15-25>25-30>30-35>35-40>40-50>50-60>60-70>70-100
Relative frequency
Export share (% of world total)
Distribution: China's share of World exports Product China
share
Pottery 67.4%
Lighting fixtures & fittings, n.e.s. 67.4%
baby carriages, toys, games & sporting goods 59.0%
Household equipment of base metal, n.e.s. 57.7%
Prefabricated building, sanitary, heating and lighting fixtures, n.e.s. 55.7%
Fabrics, woven, of man-made fabrics 55.4%
Knitted or crocheted fabrics, n.e.s. 53.8%
Made-up articles, of texile materials, n.e.s. 48.5%
Trailers & semi-trailers 48.5%
Cotton fabrics, woven 48.4%
Cutlery 45.8%
Automatic data processing machines, n.e.s. 44.0%
Tulles, trimmings, lace, ribbons & other small wares 43.3%
Household type equipment, electrical or not, n.e.s. 42.7%
Medium-skill: Electronics (excluding parts and components) (SITC 775)42.7%
Clothing accessories, of textile fabrics 42.1%
Women's clothing, of textile, knitted or croacheted 40.9%
Textile yarn and related products 40.8%
Optical instruments & apparatus, n.e.s. 40.1%
Telecommunication equipment, n.e.s. ; & parts, n.e.s. 39.9%
Telecommunication and sound recording apparatus 39.0%
China's Merchandise Exports, 2021 (% of World exports)
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12. Threat=> Opportunity=Challange
PRC: Socialist market Economy (SME)
ELISID growth model & sREADtechnology system
Goal: Monopoly over all important Technologies, manufactured exports, critical
materials
3C: Communication, computation & Control: ADP, Telecom, Optical
Military threat & defense supply chain
Industrial policy: Trusted, competitive Supply chains
Joint utilization of comparative advantage of India (manpower),
USA(technology), EU+(demand)
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13. Importance of MNEs/MNCs
MNC anchored supply chains: 60% to 2/3
rd
of trade
Majority head quartered in US, EU, UK, Japan
Competitive disadvantage(Vietnam, Bangladesh): 12.5%
Anchor investor invests in: Skills, quality, timeliness
Critical for exports & domestic value added in export
ROW : Near classic free trade + Atman Nirbhartaw
Export as benchmark: global quality, competitiveness
Exporting firms profits & productivity > domestic
India Manf: 5
th
in VA, 15
th
in exports
PLI : Capital subsidy (MES)
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14. Higher Education (% of pop 25+)
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India relative to countries at diff pcGdp ppp (2021 int $)$12,800$37,000
School Enrollment
Tertiary (% gross) 2023$9,16034.033.140.7 61.7
Educational attainment, at least completed pop25+ yrs, (%)
Bachelor's or equivalent2023$9,16013.013.215.6 23.9
Master's or equivalent2023$9,1604.2 3.5 5.4 9.2
Doctoral's or equivalent2023$9,1600.9 3.5 1.0 1.6

15. R&D IndicatorsYearPcGDPExpectedActualUMIC HIC
$12,800$37,000
R&D expenditure (% of GDP) 2020$7,4000.4 0.60.7 1.3
Researchers in R&D (/Billion) 2020$7,4000.7 0.31.5 2.9
Patent applications, residents (/Million)2021$8,05033.019.066.0141
Firms that spend on R&D (% of firms)2022$8,54519.24.319.921.7
Technicians in R&D (/Billion) 2018$7,7140.2 0.10.4 0.8
High-technology export (% of manf exprt)2023$9,1608.314.910.216.0
Source: Authors calculation based on WDI, Dec 2024
India relative to countries at diff pcGdp
ppp (2021 int $) Global Innovation Index 2024
GIIInput Output
Countries Rank
Lower Middle Income Countries
India 3944 33
Viet Nam 4453 36
Upper Middle Income Countries
China 1123 7
Thailand 4141 39
Indonesia 5454 67
Mexico 5673 52
High Income Countries
United States3 4 5
United Kingdom510 3
France 1217 10
Japan 1312 14
Count 133
Source: GII Database, WIPO, 2024
Sub-Index
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16. Where do we want to be?
World Bank defnof UMIC & HIC equated to
PcGDPat PPP (in international $ at constant 2021 prices)
Goal: From LMIC($9,200 in 2023) to
UMIC ($13,000) by 2030, HIC ($36,800) by 2050
India: Base projaverage GDP growth = 6.0%(2020-49)
(~7% 2020-29, ~6% 2030-39, ~5% 2040-49)
Other countries are based on IMF & OECD
For India this is taken as Pessimistic projection
Social Parameters/Indicators(egPublic Health)
Targets based on Global benchmarks
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17. Projections: India/China
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2003 2006 2009
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048
GDP PPP in const 2021 int $:
India/China (%)
India(6.3)/china(2.5)
India(6)/china(2.5)
India(5.2)/china(2.5)
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
2000 2003 2006 2009
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048
PCGDP PPP in const 2021 int $:
India/China (%)
India(5.7)/chin
a(2.8)
India(5.4)/chin
a
India(4.6)/chin
a(2.8)

18. Evolution of Economy(1990-2050)
Index of economic power
VIPerelative to USA(= 1)
China 0.69 => 0.99 (blue)
India 0.19 (2 => 0.95 (2050)
–redline
EU (incl Germany, France):
0.84 to o.89 (green)
India is level with Japan
(fawn) & Germany in 2023.
Will overtake them in crnt
USD GDP within 3 years.
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0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Index of economic power (VIPe)
China India EU Japan

19. Public Goods Infrastructure
Civic Infrastructure
Drinking water, garbage collection, sanitation, sewage
State Grids for collection, processing, recycling
Roads, footpaths, drainage, utility tunnels; street lights
Parks, lake/river fronts; grassed areas, public toilets
Monuments, iconic buildings/areas, culture centers
Air, water, land pollution abatement/elimination
Shopping, commercial centers, parking, toilets
Public Transport, Land use planning
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20. ViksitBharat Swachh Bharat: ViksitBharat = Swachh Bharat
(Child stunting& under weight)
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21. Conclusion
We are well placed to become a UMIC/HIC
New Opportunities must be grabbed
Demographic Changes: WAP
De-monopolization of manfexports
Services unbundling/fragmentation
Digital=>Phygital: Blended/Hybrid Expert systems/AI
Old challenges to address
Quality of Basic education(FLN) & skilling
Use expert systems, Blended AI
Higher Ed, R&D & Innovation
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22. Social Indicators improve with PcGdp
India’s Life expectancy at birth is now =
67.7 yr(dot) (Female = 69.4)
Target: 2030 UMIC (dot), with LE Total(
71.4 yrs), Female(74.1 yrs)
Target: 2050 HIC(dot), with LE total
(77.2 yrs), Female (80 yrs)
Similarly, Public Health, Education, &
other social indicators
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R² = 0.7116
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0 1000020000300004000050000600007000080000
Life Exp, Total (Yrs)
PcGDP, PPP (const 2021 int$)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)

23. THANKS
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