Analisis de Riesgo en Tuberias_11-20.pdf

Análisis de Riesgo en Tuberías de Transporte de Hidrocarburos
Sistema Administrativo de Riesgo

1. ·CONTROLLING FAILUREPROBABILITIES
Pipelinefailuresandtheirfrequencyaredependenton
manythings:
Pipelinetype,design,age,constructionquality
Product
Environment
Companyoperatingpractices
Maintenance&Inspectionpractices
Localsocial,economicandpoliticalenvironment
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2. MANAGEMENTSYSTEM
AManagementSystemisamanagementplan,intheformofadocument,
thatexplainstocompanystaft,customers,regulatoryauthorities,etc.,how
thecompanyanditsassetsaremanaged,bystating:
whoisresponsibleforeachaspectoftheassetanditsmanagement,
whatpoliciesandprocessesareinplacetoachievetargetsandgoals,
howtheyareimplemented,
howperformanceismeasured,andfinally,
howthewholesystemisregularlyreviewedandaudited.
Thedocumentisagreedatboardlevel,constantlyandsystematically
reviewedandupdated,andalllevelsofmanagementcomplywithits
contents.Manycompaniesoperatesuchasysteminapiecemeal,or
unstructuredmanner.Itistheproductionofasingle,detaileddocument
thatencompassesalltheaboveaspectsthatcreatesthe'system'.
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3. SAFETYMANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Policy
development
.
.
.
..
~
Organisational
development
Developing
techniquesof
planning,
measuring&
reviewing
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4. ."e,--:••:
,1'
',_.-,./-~,
..
j,
_'e:.
; .;
t')
PIPELINEMANAGEMENT SYSTEM
WHOLEUFE '~
INT~~C;;iv&¡l
RlSK
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
OPERATIONS
MANAGEMENT
THIRD
PARTY
SERVICES
OPERATIONS
PERSONNEL &
TRAlNlNG
COMMUNICATlONS
DETAILS
MANAGEMENT
STRUCTURE.
ROLES&
RESPONSIBIUTlESi
O~RA~ ~
MANAGEMENT~f."'m""c!"!·!j;,"',)~,!,!,!'-~""-c~-,~-·,-, ,-",-_,..,p]
DATA&
.DOCUMENTATION
PIPELINE
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
SYSTEMREVIEW.
AUDIT,AND
COMPLIANCE
COMMUNlCATIONS,
,ANODOCUMENT
CONTROL&
RECOROS
SAFETY
REGULATIONS.
etc.
PIPEUNE
SAFETY:HEALTH
i",'" J &
I--- __~ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
SAFETY,
HEALTH
&ENV.
PIPEUNEDET"",-s.
DESIGN.
CONSTRUCTION.
INSTAUATION.TESTING
&COIoCMISSIONING
SAFETY
CASES.etc.
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5. ARISKMANAGEMENT SYSTEM
1.ntroduction:
utíes:
rgansaon
Structure. Accountabilities andResponsibilities. Organisation. Relationships withOther Groups/Bodies. IntegrationintoCompany
andPipelineManagementSystems.
4.KeyPersonnel-Roles. Responslbilities. QualiflCations.TrainingandUpdating otSkills
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6. ·,
EMERGENCY PLANNING
OPERATOR REGULATOR
LOCALAUTHORITIES
REGULATOR
1OPERATORSSHOULD
SHOULD
LOCALAUTHORITYSHOULDPREPAREA
NOTIFYTHE
NOTIFY
REGULATOR
LOCAL
PLANDETAILINGHOWAMAJORACCIDENT
OfMAJOR...AlI11iORJTIES.-
ACClDENT
OI'MAJOR
WILLBEDEALTWITH
PIPEUNE
ACCIDENT
PlrEUNE ,-..~--.--"-.''' ..''-..~
+
OPERATOR SHOULDPROVIDEALL
LOCALAUTH\>RITYCONSULTSI
NECESSARY INFORMATION(FAILURE
CONSEQUENCES &tUKELyEFFECTS,
~ITHOPERATOR, REGULATORANDj
ROUTE,FLUIDCONVEYED, OPERATING
CONDITIONS,LOCATIONOFVALVES& ANYOTHERAPPROPRIATE
SMERGENCYCONTROLARRANGSMENTS
ORGANISATION(S) j
TOALLAUTHORITIESTHRO'
WHlCHUNEPASSES
:J
~~==
~~u ..e
~~~INE ~~
~c~<~ ~~~~ ~~~ ~~;;r~.;"'"' ~,
KAZAAOPl'ELfE HEALTHIHJSAf!1Y01' CABESPEClFICOUY CONSU..TAT1QNWrrH'.
~TION ME\I\.l..NERA8I..Ero AOEOUACY. /IH:)TESrED. DOO..I.ENT, REAOILy
PASSmTHRCTl1E PEOPlE. HOT AEfEAENCalH EIAERGENCYSEAVlCES BElWEEHEMEAGaCY
~.ROAO
THEY$HOlILOBE USA8U BYEMEAGENCY
AIlI><OAITYSAlEA EONfIONIENTAI. GEHEIW.ElERGEHCY "'oRE,HOSPITAlS. ole.) SERVaS&Pl'ELINE )CAHIGH REVEVt'EOAYLEAST SERW:ESAHJKfPTUP
~ I'IANS.IHJ HOWTHEY NCJOTHERSAS CONTROlCV<TRe R.SI(. EVERY]YEARS TOQUE. lHEPlAN
_wttGAATEO APf'ROPR"'TE,.... THEREf~. P\ANSWl.L MUST ADORESS:
EHIIJI()NOENT) GaERIC~fI.fJQI!U
,......~
I I I I I I I I
~~TOI'foCIU n:MX:'vID.'iIñt.m.oANDSTN'IWV ()AM.IúECCMIVL"
:..sO";;;:;;;;;:.>lLlI
~EI'tP~J;';~E. ~~"'~S ~É:.:.rrS FCA OEALNG WITl-IPRESS
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lCl:y~. t.Gm>X6 RE.P/lJRIT1:MS CIWlALTt'JU!lo"K:'SOf I.o:AJlONo:vAI.":s" 06'......N;FURTHER 'OnERMEDIA
RfSI'O<SUIIUT1Ia fU'"
~Yl.'(ItIfK)l. AlNCEIHJ
UAISON ARJlAN(;a.te-trs. de. ASSISTANCE..e.g._S
HOSPn'Al.SERVICES
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7. EMERGENCYPROCEDURES
l'KUCEDUKES
NEEDEDFORALL
FORESEEABLE
ACCIDENTS
EMERGENCYPROCEDURESFOR
PROCéUUJ<éS
SHOULDDETAlL
ARRANGEMENTS
FORWITHANY
ASSOCIATED
INSTALLATIONS
'4
"
i¡
J"..:..
'¡.•
:t
'ESTABLISH,RECORD,ORGANISE,REVISE,TEST.~
,"'U~ ,.'f: :·~a;~~:¡;;:,,~);~;~"¡';".¡M'~lo.!i.~~ ..t~~iJ
OEALINGWITHTHECONSEQUENCES
OFAMAJOR:ACCIDENT.
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I'.·,'-'"..,..,JRE....
SHOULDSPECIFY
WHODOES
WHAT,WHEN,
HOWETC.
l'RUCéDURES
SHOULDBE
UP-TO-DATE
PRUCJ:;VURES
SHOULDBE
REVISEDWHEN
NECESSARY(e.g.
CHANGEOF
OPERATION)
PRUCEDURES
SHOULDBE
TESTED, THEN
REVIEWEDAND
MODIFIEDIF
NECESSARY
PIPELINEOPERATORANOLOCALAUTHORITIES
MUSTLIAISETOENSURETHEOPERATOR'S
EMERGENCYPROCEOURES'OOVETAIL'
WITHTHEAUTHORITIES'EMERGENCYPLANS
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8. ARISKMANAGEMENT SYSTEMINACOMPANY SYSTEM
Audit
&
Performance
Measures
Risk Risk
Safety& Emergency
Integrity Planningf--
Mitigation
- -
Assessment
Management&Procedures
MAJORACCIDENTPREVENTIONDOCUMENT
OR,MAJORACCIDENTPREVENTION POLICY
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9. ;RISKMANAGEMENT SYSTEMS-SUMMARY
RiskmanagementmethodsandrecommendationsfromNorthAmericaand
Europecanbecombinedtocreateacomprehensive'riskmanagement
system'.
Thissystemincludesallaspectsoftheintegrityandsafetymanagementofa
pipeline(includingemergencyplansandprocedures),andispositionedwithin
anoverallpipelinemanagementsystem.
Ariskmanagementsystemcanbeconstructedusingtheguidelinesdetailed
inthispresentation.Itcanbeatime-consumingexercise,thatneedsthe
supportofalllevelsofstafftobothcompileit,andimplementitsuccessfully.
Thepipelineindustrynowhasmethodsthatcanallowittodesignandoperate
theirpipelinesinasaferandmorecost-beneficialmannerusing'risk
management'.
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10. RiskAndIntegrityManagementOfATransmissionPipeline
ABSTRACT
RegulatoryauthoritiesinCanada,theUSAandtheUKaremovingawayfromprescriptive
approachesinpipelinedesignandoperation, to'riskmanagement'asthesafestandmostcost
effectivemeansofmaintainingandimprovingsafetylevelsinpipelines.
Additionally,operatorsandregulatorsarerecognisingtheimportanceandusefulnessof
'managementsystems'.APipelineManagementSystemisexpectedtobearequirementinall
countriesoftheEuropeanCornmunityinthenearfuture.
Thispapercontainscoursenotesthatintroducethereadertoriskmanagementmethods,and
managementsystems,andcombinesthesetwoapproachestoproduceacompleterisk
managementsystem,includingemergencyplanningandprocedures,thatcanbeusedona
pipelinesystem.
1.INTRODUCfION
Pipelinesmustprovideasafemethodoftransportingenergy,andpipelineoperatorsmust
ensurethatthepublic,environmentandpropertyareprotectedfromanyrisksassociatedwith
thepipeline.
Mostpipelineoperatorscontroltheserisksbycomplyingwiththeirregulatoryrequirements
andnationalcodes,andgenerallyperformingadditionalactivitieswherethereisaperceived
need,orwhereanalysisorexperiencehasshowntheretobeaneed.
Regulatoryregijnesaregenerally'prescriptive',andwillnotbeadaptabletodiffering
pipelineswithlÜfTeringneedsandassociatedrisks.Thispresentsthedualproblemsofi.
potentially'missing'newrisks,andii.creatinganinflexibleenvironmentforoperatorsto
applynewtechnologiesthatcanbothidentifyandmitigatethekeyrisks.
Thispapercontainscoursenotesthatcornmencewithageneraloverviewofriskmanagement
inbusinesstoday,thenexplainriskmanagement,anditsadvantages,inthepipelineworld.
1.1RiskManagementintbeworldtoday-ageneralovervíew'" ".
Riskmanagernentinindustrytodayisverybroad;traditionallycompanieshavetakena
narrowviewonthis,suchasonlyconsideringriskstotheirbusinessthatcanbeinsured
against,principallyinfinanceandcreditmanagement.Thisisduetohistoricalconcernwith
interestrates,financialfailureofcustomers,exchangerates,etc..Hence,traditionally,the.
responsibilityhasfallenonthefinancedepartment.

11. Themodem approach isbroader andtakesintoaccountwider issues such ascustomer
satisfaction andtechnology(e.g.technologycompaniescarrythehighestriskbyhaving atoo
long product development cyc1e).Therefore, riskmanagementmonitors andanalyses all
aspects ofbusiness risk,andthisiswhyitisbeingintroduced intopipeline operations.
,.
...
Hence,riskmanagement ispartofthecompanymanagement strategy. Forexarnple, public
liability insurancecancovermanyproblems,buthowaboutconsequential damage? The
sportswearcompanyNlKEsufferedfromthepublicitysurrounding theiruseofcheap world
labourtomake theirproducís!'! Intangiblessuchasreputation needtobemonitoredinrisk
management. Thisisagoodexampleofacompanynotconsideringallitsstakeholders
(shareholders, employees, suppliers, andtheenvironment)initsriskmanagernent'"
Riskmanagement responsibility alwaysrestswiththeexecutivesofthecompany (the
'board'). Itstartsatanoperationallevel, butispartofthedaytodayrunningofthecompany,
andshouldbeinc1udedinjobdescriptions.
Theculturemustallowtransferofinformation(risks)fromthe'coalface'totheboard.There
shouldbeapositiveviewofstaffwhoactivelyinformbossesofproblems. Indeed,analysis
ofcorporatefailuresinvariablyshowthecultureiswrong, riskshavebeenhidden, failuresnot
reported...andtheresult?Adisaster.Hence,itisimportanttocheckthatyourcompany
appreciates riskstoitsbusiness, andhasariskmanagementsytsteminplace. Wecanproduce
asimplechecklist:
Doyoursystemsandreportingstructuressupportriskmanagement?
Arestrategicchangesaffectingyourbusinessriskprofiles?
Areinformation resourcesmanagedefficientlyandsecurely?
Haveyouevaluatedtherisksyoufaceonadaytodaybasis?
Areyoueffectivelymanagingallofyourkeybusinessrelationships?
Areyouexposedtocredit, financialorfraudrisks?
Doyoumeetallofthecurrentcorporategovernancerequirements?
Inbusinesstherearecertain risksyouhavetotakelaccept,buttheseriskshouldbecorrectly
evaluated,andyouneedthetoolstomanagethem.IntheUKthe'CombinedCode'(fromthe
CommitteeonCorporateGovernance)willrequirealldirectorsoflistedcompanies toreview
theeffectivenessofallinternalcontroIs,includingriskmanagement.
1.2TbemovetowardsRiskManagementintbepipelineworld
RegulatoryauthoritiesinCanada, theUSAandtheUK(2.9]aremovingawayfromprescriptive
approachesinpipelinedesignandoperation, to'riskmanagement'asthesafestandmostcost
effectivemeansofmaintainingandimprovingsafetylevelsinpipelines.Riskmanagement in
thepipelineworldisamulti-levelprograrnmethatallowsoperatorstoidentifyrisks,their
severityandfrequency,andimplementthebestcontrolmeasures. Theprogranuneincludes
performancemeasures forbothmanagementandthecontrolmeasures, andrequiresconstant
feedbacktotestandimprovethewholeprocess.
...•
©Andrew Palmer&Associates 2

12. Riskmanagementrecognises thatitisnotpossibletoeliminateallrisk,anditrecognisesthat
thebestwaytocontrolrisksistheanalytical andcosteffective useofavailableresources, and
notbyblindlyfollowing regulations andcodeso
Thismeansthatthepipeline industry ischanging, fromprescnptive (sornewouldsay
'restrictive') methodsofdesigningandoperating theirpipelines, to'goalsetting'. Therefore,
operatorsshouldbeawareofthesenewmanagementmethods.
1.3Themovetowards'ManagementSystems'
Pipelineoperatorsandregulators arerecognisingtheimportanceandusefulnessofformal
'managementsystems'. APipelineManagementSystem!'?' isexpectedtobearequirementin
al!countriesoftheEuropeanCommunityinthenearfuture'"!
Managementsystemsbringtogethercompanyorganisationstructure,responsibilities,
processes, etc.,inasingledocumentthatisconstantlyreviewedandauditedtoquantifyits
usefulnessandeffectiveness. Apipelinemanagementsystemineludesthepartsofageneral
managementsystemrelatingtoapipeline.
Figure1.RiskManagementProgrammesinacompany'sManagementSystem.
Therefore,itistheobvious'home'forriskmanagementmethodsandprocedures, andallows
acompanytosystematicallyimplement,reviewandaudit ariskmanagementprograrnme(i.e.
riskassessmentandriskcontrol), Figurel. .
Thispaperpresentsriskmanagementmethods,andtheirbackground.Italsoineludessimple
managementsystemsforpipeline operatorstouseontheir ownpipelinesystems, which
accornmodateriskmanagementmethods.

13. 2.THEINCREASING USEOFRISKMANAGEMENT METHODS
Manycountriesareactivelyusing,ormovingtowards,riskmanagementmethods. The
folJowingareselectedexamples:
2.1UK
ThePipelinesSafetyRegulations1996(51intheUKcovermostoilandgas,onshoreand
offshore,transmissionpipelines.TheseRegulationsarenotprescriptive, butgoalsetting. This
meansthatoperatorsofpipelinesarenotrestrictedtoprescriptivedesigncodes,andcan
insteadbasedesignandoperationon'fitness-for-purpose'. Indeed,theGuidanceNotesforthe
Regulations!"statethat'ApipelineMAOP(maximumallowableoperatingpressure)may
needtoberaisedaboyetheoriginaldesignpressureinsornecases. Ifthisisproposed, itwill
probablyhavesignificantimplicationsonthepipelineintegrityandriskwhichmustbefulJy
evaluated'.
PipelinesintheUKhavetosatisfyanumberof'general'regulationsbutwhenapipeline
carriesa'dangerousfluid'(e.g.aflarnmablegasat8barabsolute)itisconsidereda'major
accidenthazardpipeline',andattractsadditionalregulations.Regulation23requiresthe
operatorofamajoraccidenthazardpipelinetohaveavailablea'MajorAccidentPrevention
Document'(MAPD). A'majoraccident'isdefinedas'deathorseriousinjuryinvolvinga
dangerousfluid'. J
2.1.1MajorAccidentPreventionDocuments
TheMAPDisamanagementtooltoensurethattheoperatorhasassessedtheriskfrommajor
accidentsandhasintroducedanappropriatesafetymanagementsystem'tocontroltheserisks,
Figure2.TheaimisthatthedocumentwillexplainhowtheoperatorhasestablishedSafety
ManagementSystems(seebelow)tocontrolthemajoraccidenrhazardsofthepipelineor
pipelinesystem.'
2.1.2SafetyManagementSystem
ThepipelineMAPDmustbesupportedbyaSafetyManagementSystem'!"whichisinplace
forthecontrolofthesafetyofthepipelinethroughoutitslifecycle. Thesafetymanagement
systemshouldcovertheorganisationandarrangementsforpreventing,controllingand
mitigatingtheconsequencesofmajoraccidents.Theseincludespecificattentionto
managementcompetenciesandproceduresnecessarytominimisethepossibilityofthese
events.
In1993,theUKRoyalSocietydefined'safety'as'thefreedomfromunacceptablerisksofpersonalharm',
and'safetymanagement'as'theapp1icationoforganisationalandmanagementprincipiestoachieve
optimumsafetywithhighconfidence'. Thisencompassesplanning,organising, controlling, co-ordinatingall
contributory,developmentandoperationalactivitiesll2.lll. SeealsoFootnote4.
©Andrew Palmer &Associates

14. ...., .....'-;
..····;eMAPDisamanagemenl 10011;··-.
ensuretbetIheooerstor hasessessed ...
Iherisktrommajoraccidenlsandhas}-o
inlroduced anappropriale managemenl ..:
system locontrol theserisks •
'.
.~""~ .....
................... _~
MAPO
....
..
Theaimof(heMAPDisloexplain
.........¡'howIheoperalor hasestablished
¡salisfaclory managemenlsystems
\.locontrol Ihemajor eccidents hazards
.••••~,Ihepipeline orpipelinesystem
". ..
.....................................
I
J I J I
i",
li
IDENTIFYALL EVALUATE ALL
PRODUCESAFETY ARRANGEFOR
HAZARDS RISKS
MANAGEMENT AUDITING ANO
SYSTEM REPORTING
HAZARDS RISKS SMS AUDITING
Figure2.RequirementsofaMAPD
ThiscombinationofMAPDandSafetyManagementSystem, isconsistentwiththeoverall
approachoutlinedinFigure1,andequivalentto(butnotascomprehensiveas)the'risk
prograrnmes'and'pipelinemanagementsystem'describedlatero
2.2Canada
InCanada,riskassessmentandmanagementisbeingpromotedbythePipelineRisk
AssessmentSteeringCSornmittee, whichhasdevelopedaCanada-wide databaseofreportable
pipelineincidentsandcharacteristics.
Anon-rnanadatoryappendix'Guidelines forRiskAnalysisofPipelines' wasincludedinthe
CanadianStandardsAssociationStandardZ662in1996. Thelatesteditionoutlines' risk
assessmentcony.epts andsurnmarisestheriskassessment process, andacknowledges both
qualitiative and/quantitative riskanalysis. Theemphasis isonriskanalysis (estimatingrisk
usingfrequencyandconsequenceanalysis),ratherthanriskassessment(whattoconsiderin
evaluatingtheestimatedriskj'".
2.3USA
In1998,theUSAOfficeofPipeline Safetysigneda'riskmanagementdemonstrationproject
order'approvingShellasthefirstparticipant intheirriskmanagementdemonstration
programme'". Thisprograrnmewastheoutcomeofapublicconference'inNovember 1995,
whereapartnershipofindustryandregulatorsrecommendedriskmanagementasapotential
methodofproducingequalorgreaterlevelsofpipelinesafetyinamorecosteffectivemanner
thanthecurrentregulatory regime'",
TheapproachintheUSAistoimplementacompleteriskmanagementprograrnmeona
pipelinesystem,whichineludesariskassessment,control,performancemonitoringand
feedback.Italsorequiresoperatorstoensurethatriskmanagementisintegratedwiththe
company'sbusinesspractices,andthereforeitisfullydescribedbyFigure1.
©Andrcw Palrncr&Associatcs

15. 2.4Europe
TheEuropeanCommissionisreviewing thecontrol of'majoraccidenr" pipelines!'" withthe
aimofcontrollingmajoraccidentsinvolving pipelines carryingdangerous substances"
Thiswillentail requirements onallmember statestodrawupaMajorAccident Prevention
Policy (MAPP)thatestablishes theoverall aimsandprincipiesofactionwithrespect tothe
controlofmajoraccidentpipelines. There willbeanotherrequirement foraPipeline
Management Systemthatensures theMAPP isproperly implemented.
Clearly theEuropeanComrnission 'sreview (withaMAPPwithin, andsupported by,a
PipelineManagementSystem)issimilartotheUKapproachofanMAPD(Figure 2)
containingaSafetyManagementSystem(seeSection4),andisconsistent withtheapproach
detailedinFigure1.
3.RISKANDINTEGRITYMANAGEMENT
3.1Whatis'Risk'?
AlIoperatorswantapipeline thatissafe'(doesnotposeamajorrisktothepopulation and
environment),andsecure(doesnotposeamajorrisktosu¡lplies). Therefore,theyrequire
high'integrity'.Thisisusuallyinterpretedasalowprobabilityofthepipelinefailing (or
failingtodeliver),andisverymuchalegacyofthe'old'approachofrefusingtoadmitthata
pipelinemayfail,withsignificantconsequences.
Riskiscalculatedbycombining thelikelihood ofahazardous even,withitsconsequences:
'.
RISK=f(Probabi/ity ofFailure, Probability ofaConsequence) ...1
Consequenceanalysis willdependon:pipelinetype,product,eleaseratejhrough orifices,
~
toxicityofproduct,generationanddispersionofvapourcloudsandflamejets,thermal
radiationhazards,vapourcloudexplosions,etc..
3.1.1Howdowecurrentlydealwithrisk?
Traditionally,transmissionpipelinesaredesignedinaccordancewithdesigncodes suchas
theAmericanPipelineStandardsASMEB31.4/8. Mostnationalandintemationalpipeline .:
design codesarebasedonthisASMEcodeo
ZA'majoraeeident'isanoccurrence suchasamajoremission,fire,orexplosion resulting fromuncontrolled
developmentintheeourseoftheoperationofthepipeline,andleadingtoseriousdanger lohuman health
andlortheenvironment,irnrnediate ordelayed, andinvolvinga'dangeroussubstance'.
)A'dangeroussubstance'isdefinedintheRegulatoryBenchmark. These substances aregradedfrom'1'
(verytoxie)through'S'('highlyinflarnmabe') to8(classesincludingthosethatreactwithwater).
4USAOffieeofPipelineSafety(3)eonsiders:
'Safety' is'theproteetionofthepublic,theenvironmentandproperty'. 'Risk'is'anythreattoachieving
these(above)goals'.
Theyuse'deterministic'limits, e.g.adesignstressof72%ofthespecifiedminimumyield
strength(SMYS)isused,basedonconservativeassumptionssuchasminimumwall
~Andrew Palmer &Associates 6

16. thickness.Theselimitsusually have asafetyfactor associatedwiththem, e.g.apre-service
hydrotestto100%SMYSmeans thata72%SMYS pipelinehasasafety factorof100/72 on
pressurc attheoutset ofitsdesign life.
Therefore, bylimiting stress, wewillensure alowprobability offailure-thisisonehalfof
theaboyeriskequation1.The'probability ofaconsequence' ismitigated byensuring thatwe
havealowfailureprobabilty inthecaseofliquid lines,butingaslineswelimitconsequences
bylimiting thenumberofpeople (buildings) inthevicinity ofthepipeline, e.g.:
Table1.ClassificationschemeinASMEB31.8
ASME AREA DesignFactor(hoop
CLASSIFICATION stress/SMYS)
Class1(Div1) 0.80
Class1(Div2) 0-10buildings(rural) 0.72
Class2 11-45buildings (areasaroundtowns)0.60
Class3 46+dwellings(e.g.suburban) 0.50
Class4 Multi-storey-type buildings 0.40
Wecanseethatexistingpipelinecodesactuallyaddress(albeitimplicitly),bothprobabilityof
failure,andconsequencesoffailure.Therefore,whenweapplyriskmanagementmethodswe
needtoaddressbothfailureprobability andconsequences, andthisisconsistentwithgood
(historical)practicesinpipeline codeso
3.1.2Howcanwelink'Risk'and'Integrity' Management?
Traditionally,operatorshaveconsideredpipeline integrityasdealing withfailureprobability,
andpipelinesafetyasdealingwithfailureconsequences.Therefore,operatorswilloftenhave
'pipelineintegritymanagementsystems'and'safetymanagementsystems' dealingwiththese
twoseparateaspects. However, wewillcombine thesetwoaspectsintooneapproachinthis
paper-'riskmrnagement'.
<
3.2WhatisRisk(andIntegrity)Management?
Riskmanagementisacombinationofthetwoaboveaspects(failureanalysisand
consequenceanalysis)wherewebringtogetherriskassessmentandriskcontrol.Ithasbeen
definedbytheUSAOfficeofPipelineSafetyas'":
'acomprehensivemanagement decisionsupportprocess, implementedasaprogram,
integratedthroughdefined roles andresponsibilities intotheday-to-day operations,
maintenance,engineering management, andregulatory decisionsoftheoperator ',
Therefore,wewillnowconsider'riskmanagement'asincludingbothrisk(assessmentand
control)andintegritymanagementaspects(seealsoSection5.2andTable2,later).Itcovers
threekeyareas'";
(0Anrirr-w PalrnerlitAssoci atcs 7
i.RiskAssessment(Analysis)

17. What typesofriskswillbeaddressed? What adverse events canhappen? Howlikely arethesc
events? Howseverewouldtheconsequences be?What riskhasbeenincreased?
ii.RiskControlandDecisionSupport
What couldbedonetocontrolrisks? What aretherelative meritsandoptions?
What setofactivities bestachieves theriskrnanagernent goals?
iii.PerformanceMonitoringandFeedback
What improvements areexpected fromtheriskcontroldecisions? Whatmeasures best
capture theseexpected outcomes? Aretheselected riskcontrolactivities having theintended
cffccis? Howcantheoverall riskmanagement process beimproved?
Figure 3summarises theaboye.
RiskAssessment RiskControl&DecisionSupport
..EstimateFrequencyf----Selectactivities toreducerisk
&Consequences orproduceequallevelsof
ofpossibleincidents safetymoreefficiently
PerformanceMonitoring
&Feedback
Determineifriskcontrol
decisions producethe
anticipatedoutcomes
IdentificationofRiskControl
Issues
Definemajorcontributorstorisk,
.jmdhowtocontrolthem
IdentificationofRiskControl.
·Options
Definespecificalternatives to
currentdesign&operationthat
reduceriskorincreaseefficiency
Evaluation&Comparisonof
Optígns
Selectbestsetofdesign &
operationalpracticestoproduce
equalorgreatersafety
Figure3.RiskManagement-tbeapproacbadoptedintbeUSAP1
Clearly,riskassessmentisthekeystartingpoint.Riskassessmentswillrequireexpert skills,
andshouldbecarefullymanaged.Figure4summarisesthefullriskassessmentprocess.
©Andrew Palmer&Associates
8

18. Determine
Whowillbeinvolvedinthe
ifandwhyyou f-----+
Assessment, andwillit Identifypersorv'group
beAcceptableto 1----
whocandotheAssessmentwantaRiskAssessment
RegulatoryAuthorities?
t
Estimate
,.
Failure r--
IDENTIFYallHazards~ EstablishDataBase
PROBABILITY ofPipeline, Route&Plant
~
Estimate
Calculate
Establish&Agree
Failure r--.
RISK
ACCEPTABLERISK
CONSEQUENCES
LEVELS
1
Implement, Control AssessifCompany will
ReviewandAudit
DocumentallAnalysis
AcceptRisk(compared
toGain)
I
I
I
---- .J
Figure4.Keyelementsofapipelineriskassessment
Wecannowseethattheconventionalviewofriskmanagementisaprocesscentredonrisk
assessrnent(Figure4),butcontainingriskcontrolanddecisionsupport, andperformance
monitoringandfeedback(Figure3).
".:..
3.3WhatdoesRiskManagementdo?i31
Riskmanagement:
l.produces,structuresandpresentsthebestavailableriskinformation tosupportand
facilitatebettermanagementdecisions,
ii.allowsmanagementdecisionsandtheirbasestobemoreeasilycornrnunicated,
iii.identifiesalJ'riskstothepipeline, selectssuitablecontrols,andappropriateperformance
measures,
iv.doesnotreplacepipelinecompanymanagersorregulatorswithcomputermodels.
Corporatemanagersandregulators makedecisions, aided, butnotdictatedby,technical
andquantitativeanalyses,
v.isacontinuousprocess, withupdates andrefinementscontinuallyfedbackintothe
process,
VI.requires corporateleadership, cornmitment, andaccountability.
3.4WhatarethetangiblebenefitsofadoptingRiskManagement?
RegulatoryAuthoritiesrecognisetheusefulnessofriskmanagement, andoperatorsshouldbe
awareofitsmanyadvantages:
1.Improvementstopipelineefficiency, safetyandsecurity .
11.Compliancewithregulators,legislation andcode(movingfromprescriptive togoal-based
design).
()

19. iii.Controlofthehaz.ardsassociatedwithpipelines(costofafailureismade upofdirect
costs(e.g.repairs), andindirectcosts(Jossofbusiness&goodwill, compensation claims,
etc.). Indirectscanbethelargest.
IV.ControlofInsuranceCost.
3.5Howcan1developafullRiskManagernentProgramme?
Thispaperisgoingtooutlineafullriskmanagementprogrammeintheformofasystem.It
willusetheelementsoftheUSAriskmanagementprogrammedetailedinFigure3,andadopt
theriskassessment approachofFigure4.Additionally, itwillineludeEmergencyProcedures
andEmergencyPlanning. AIltheseelementsoftheriskmanagementprogramme willbe
containedinthePipelineManagementSystem(Figure1),whosetaskistoensurethatthe
wholeprogrammeisimplemented,measured,reviewed, auditedandimproved.
Itshouldbeemphasisedthatweareonlydealingwiththeriskmanagementsysteminthis
paperoTheriskassessmentelernentiskeyandcentraltoitssuccessandthesafetyofthe
pipeline.Riskassessmentwillrequirespecialistskillsandmethods,andwillentaildetailed
discussionswitha1lstakeholders, particularlytheRegulatoryAuthorities.Guidanceonrisk
assessmentcanbefoundintheliterature''"
151.
TheriskmanagementrnodelwewilluseisdetailedinFigureS.Itbringstogetheral!safety
aspectsofourpipelinesystem. J
Audit
&
Risk Risk
Safety& Emergency
Assessment
1-
Mitigation
1-Integrity1-Planning
Management&Procedures
i AJORACCIDENTP~VENTIONDOC~MENT
OR,MAJORACCIDENTPREVENTIONPOLlCY
Figure5.AnoverviewofacompleteRiskManagement'Programme',containedwithin
aPipelineManagementSystem.
3.5.Howdo1incorporateRiskManagementintomycompany?.
Wecanseethatriskmanagementreliesonthefollowing:
©Andrew Palmer &Associates
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