Analysys Mason Space Industry Pulse 2024.pdf

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1. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
The pulse of the satellite industry:
questions and answers for senior
executives 2024
June 2024

2. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Contents
About this report
Top 5 burning questions
Additional popular questions
Methodology and respondent information
About Analysys Mason

3. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
About this report
This report examines the questions that industry leaders in the
satellite communications (satcom) industry want answers to in
2024. It is based on a survey conducted by Analysys Mason.
The results of Analysys Mason’s annual survey are a unique
source of information about industry trends and issues that
demand attention.
This year’s survey elicited around 400 responses, illustrating the
industry’s growing curiosity and concern about the future of
satellite and space technology.
The responses span a wide range of topics, although most fall
into four categories (Figure 1):
▪SpaceX Starlink and Kuiper
▪LEO/MEO satellite constellations
▪the future of GEO satellites
▪direct-to-device (D2D) communication.
In this report, we discuss five of the most commonly asked
(burning) questions in the industry today in order toprovide
thought-provoking insights and actionable strategies and to start
engaging discussions that will shape the trajectory of the satcom
industry.
Figure 1: Topics raised in Analysys Mason’s ‘burning’ question
survey 2024
3
QUESTIONS THAT THE INDUSTRY WANTS ANSWERS TO
▪What addressable market is left after Starlink and Amazon
Kuiper expand their networks?
▪Is it possible to build a profitable LEO broadband
constellation?
▪Is abundancefostering a battle of non-GEOecosystems?
▪What impact is AI having on satellite and space markets?
▪Would you please provide a reality check on satellite D2D?

4. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Contents
About this report
Top 5 burning questions
Other popular questions
Methodology and respondent information
About Analysys Mason

5. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Question 1: What addressable market is left after Starlink and Amazon Kuiper
expand their networks?
5
Analysys Mason is confident that an addressable market remains
outside of Kuiper and Starlink.However, the critical issue is
whether the industry can offer a compelling alternative.
An unprecedented amount of satellite capacity supply increase is
underway; Starlink already offers over 102Tbit/s and Amazon
Kuiper is expected to reach over 177Tbit/s when deployed.
Starlink continues to expand globally and via new addressable
markets, and is challenging incumbentsin all segments of the
value chain.Amazon Kuiper is expected to do the same.
However, both Starlink and Kuiper will be bandwidth-limited in
relation to the total addressable market (TAM).Constellations are,
by their nature, global and bandwidth-inefficient, especially when
multiple applications are overlaid.Consider stranded capacity
over oceans alone, which represent ~70% of the Earth’s surface.
▪In the short term, Analysys Mason expects Starlink to pose a
continued competitive threat; co-opetition; and an
addressable marketin most satcom segments.
Figure 2: Starlink and Amazon Kuiper constellation deployment
▪In the medium term,Kuiperwill enter the market and bring
more disruption. Price pressure will increase.
▪In the long term, amassive supply push will continue,
butcongestionwill persist. Dynamic pricing will come into
play.
Satellite Capacity research programme
This programme covers the trends, players and critical issues surrounding satellite supply/demand dynamics, from
GEO and MEO operators to LEO constellations from Starlink and Amazon Kuiper.
Main report: Satellite capacity supply and demand
How we
can help
Source: Analysys Mason

6. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Question 2: Is it possible to build a profitable LEO broadband constellation?
6
Starlink could become revenue-positive as early as the end of
2024 and at the latest by the end of 2028.
Starlink and Amazon Kuiper are vertically integrated, have strong
brands and can subsidise equipment sales and ride out
challenging macroeconomic conditions.
Analysys Mason ran a hypothetical 240-satellite, gateway-
lessconstellation with the following technical assumptions
(Figure3):
▪altitude: 1000km
▪orbit inclination: 45 degrees
▪minimum terminal antenna elevation: 30 degrees.
A profitable LEO constellation depending on various sizes and
technical attributes can become revenue positive and even
achieve healthy ROIwithin 5-to-10-years. The key is to reduce
capex and opex, and hit the USD25Mbit/s per month breakeven
price point while penetrating varied customer segments.
Figure 3: Sample LEO constellation business case
Satellite Capacity research programme
This programme covers the trends, players and critical issues surrounding satellite supply/demand dynamics, from
GEO and MEO operators to LEO constellations from Starlink and Amazon Kuiper.
Main report: Satellite capacity supply and demand
How we
can help
Breakeven price per usable Mbit/s per
month
USD25
Manufacturing cost per
satellite
USD750 000
Satellite
weight
400kg USD1500
Launch costs
per kg
Addressability Target capture
20% 15%
Satellites per
shell 240
Satellite lifetime
5 years
Aggregate throughput per satellite
30Gbit/s
Source: Analysys Mason

7. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Question 3: Is abundancefostering a battle of non-GEOecosystems?
7
The satellite industry is entering an era of capacity ‘abundance’.
Spectrum is always a scarce resource but new LEO capacity and
next-generation high-throughput MEO/GEOs offer significantly
more supply than ever before.
This new dynamic has led to satellites finally – and quickly –
becoming mainstream technology. For an industry that was
historically defined by niche markets and scarcity economics, the
shift to an environment of ‘abundance’ is a new paradigm; with its
own challenges and opportunities. These developments could fuel
growth for years and could potentially lift not just one but several
satellite players.
The sheer size of so-called satellite mega-constellations and
their accelerating launch cadence could foster growth and
reinforceconvergenceopportunities horizontally, across space
sectors (such as satcom, Earth observation, navigation/timing,
IoT and cloud) that have been operating under different
principles. We are seeing a few examples already.
Figure 4: Examples of cross-platform convergence
SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are approaching
the market differently. SpaceX provides a full vertically-integrated
model, and Amazon focuses on full digitisation of the
infrastructure that points at multiple touch points with its leading
cloud play (AWS).
Satellite Capacity research programme
This programme covers the trends, players and critical issues surrounding satellite supply/demand dynamics, from
GEO and MEO operators to LEO constellations from Starlink and Amazon Kuiper.
Main report: Satellite capacity supply and demand
How we
can help
High-throughput
satellites
▪High-capacity,
frequency reuse,
multi-orbit,
multi-band
Cloud and network
virtualisation
▪Open interfaces,
analytics, app
ecosystems, APIs,
hooks to AI
Earth observation,
navigation and IoT
▪Multi-sensor,
high-revisit IoT
and EO satellites,
geospatial data
Source: Analysys Mason

8. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Question 4: What impact is AI having on satellite and space markets?
8
AI has significant potential for satellite and space. Its potential
for increasing processing capability while decreasing costs is
interesting for the sector.
However, AI implementation is patchy and mainly in a few
sectors such as Earth observation, satellite communications,
manufacturing and in-orbit services. The Earth observation
sector, in particular, is using AI and machine-learning tools to sort,
categorise and analyse growing volumes of imagery, to create
actionable intelligence and downstream solutions for customers.
The two main challenges are that AI is not yet advanced enough
to ensure the precision and accuracy needed for satellite and
space and, the satellite sector is only just beginning to digitise its
processes to get the benefit from AI and similar tools.
The telecoms market is using AI to reduce costs via automated
documentation, customer support, and aid in marketing and
planning, but this may come at the expense of company
downsizing. Satellite telecoms will probably follow the same
pattern, as the industry becomes more commercialised.
Figure 5: Stages of AI in the satellite and space industry
Earth Observation research programme
This programme analyses trends to produce strategic recommendations for creating roadmaps, addressing new use
cases, and offers insights into enabling technologies such as cloud computing, AI and ML.
Main report: Satellite-based Earth observation
How we
can help
Phase 1
Trials
Now to 2027:
AI use case in initial stages (EO mainly), with a focus on
internal processes with some customer use cases
Phase 2
Expansion
2028–2030:
AI applied across satcom, manufacturing & IOS (more
customer-facing usage)
Phase 3
Deployment
2030+:
AI deployed in most space and satellite segments for both
internal and client use cases
Source: Analysys Mason

9. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Question 5: Would you please provide a reality check on satellite D2D?
9
The D2D market will not scale to a multi-billion US dollar
opportunity before voice and data are available. Analysys
Mason envisions four stages of D2D development: emergency,
SMS, voice and data. Globalstar/Apple is active in the
emergency stage, but other players are about to launch
messaging services for users and IoT (Skylo, Sateliot, OQ
Technologies). Starlink continues its quick pace of innovation,
but this initial constellation, as per the FCC filing, appears to be
unable to scale to massive voice and data services.
A key requirement for market success is ecosystem
development. It is also encouraging to see interest from
terrestrial telcos. MWC24 was confirmation of this; players
such as Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, Huawei, KDDI, Keysight,
Mediatek, Nokia and Vodafone demonstrated their activities.
D2D is the best solution for ultra-remote and low-bandwidth
connectivity. However, the technology has limitations. When the
subscriber numbers in the same coverage area increase above
the hundreds, other alternatives seem to be more effective.
Figure 6: Satellite D2D traffic forecast and Starlink D2D supply
assessment, worldwide
D2D continues to advance at an extraordinary pace, with key
milestones achieved. Any new actor willing to enter the market
needs to move urgently. It now seems to be understood that
satellite and NTN will be a growth engine for the telecoms
industry, but platforms need to generate the right incentives to
stimulate participation of actors across the value chain.
Satellite Strategies for Telcos research programme
This program covers the trends, players and market opportunity emerging from the integration of satellite networks
into the Telco ecosystem. Key themes include rural broadband, D2D and Telco-satellite strategies.
Main report: Satellite direct-to-device market
How we
can help

10. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Contents
About this report
Top 5 burning questions
Other popular questions
Methodology and respondent information
About Analysys Mason

11. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
In addition to the questions discussed on the previous slides, a number of other noteworthy and topical questions were submitted by
industry leaders in response to Analysys Mason’s annual survey. These included the following.
▪What is the future of GEO? What will be the remaining markets for GEO satellites? Has GEO now been slapped with an expiry date?
▪Will satellite operators speed up the sale of underperforming or capex-heavy assets (teleports, satellites)?
▪Can LEOs and GEOs peacefully coexist?
▪Do the long-term economics of Starlink support the amount of money invested? Is it possible their strategy is similar to the venture
capital market's targeting of the taxi industry? Subsidize at huge losses in the near-term to drive out incumbents and then raise prices
later?
▪What form of consolidation of the satcom market is expected in the short to medium term?
▪What has happened to satellite manufacturing quality?
▪Can AST and Lynk build a system that will work and have enough customers to make a business out of it?
▪How will the new launch vehicles coming to the market in 2024 affect the business case for current and future planned
constellations?
▪Do you see in-orbit servicing applications reaching a certain maturity in the coming years?
▪Now that Starlink is ubiquitous, it's getting kind of boring – even launches multiple times a week don't raise an eyebrow – any sign that
investors are getting bored with it too?
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Other popular questions

12. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Contents
About this report
Top 5 burning questions
Other popular questions
Methodology and respondent information
About Analysys Mason

13. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Analysys Mason’s Pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024 presents our responses to five key
industry questions and is based on three major inputs: primary research, industry insights and expert validations:
▪primary research: ~400 registrants to Analysys Mason’s March 2024 breakfast briefing were asked to submit their questions about
the industry that they would like us to answer and ~200 responses were received
▪industry insights: the background and analysis presented in this document draws on a wealth of internal Analysys Mason research
▪expert validations: our team of experts in Analysys Mason are uniquely qualified.
An analysis of the survey respondents reveals a dynamic mix of industry leaders hailing from diverse sectors such as space agencies, end
users, telecoms operators and satellite operators.
70% of this year’s respondents occupy direct decision-making roles within their respective companies, and the remaining 30% serve as
influential stakeholders that guide strategic direction.
13
Methodology and respondent information

14. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Contents
About this report
Top 5 burning questions
Other popular questions
Methodology and respondent information
About Analysys Mason

15. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Analysys Mason’s space research programmes
15
▪Satellite supply
▪Demand dynamics
▪Competitive landscape
Satellite Capacity
▪Monetisation beyond the megabit
per second
▪Multi-dimensional networks
▪Autonomous vehicles
Satellite Mobility
▪Satellite orders and launch
▪Building new space infrastructure
▪Multi-domain delivery models
Satellite Infrastructure
▪Rural broadband
▪Direct-to-device (D2D)
▪Telco-satellite strategies
Satellite Strategies for Telcos
▪Earth observation
▪Space cloud computing
▪AI/ML edge computing
Earth Observation
▪Emerging and established market
landscape
▪Commercial or military
▪Innovation trends
Government and Military Space
With a 1-year subscription to any of our space research programmes, you’ll gain direct access to our team of experts
and receive digital content updates throughout the year

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17. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024 17
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18. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
Our research services
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19. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024 19
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20. The pulse of the satellite industry: questions and answers for senior executives 2024
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JUNE 2024