Asymmetric Warfare by Prof Banyu SESKOAU

penjelasan asymmetric warfare

1. Understanding Asymmetric Warfare Prof. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita , Ph.D. Professor of international Relations Indonesia Air Force Command and Staff College, August 12, 2024

2. Sun Tzu (The Art of War) “You must attack where the enemy is not prepared; use your strongest forces against what is most vulnerable”

3. Andrew J. R. Mack’s (1975), “ Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars ” Asymmetric Warfare refers to “ a significant power disparity between opposing actors in a conflict” This term then was developed into a definition of “a conflict in which the forces between the participants are broadly disparate qualitatively and/or quantitatively, that leads to the use of unconventional tactics by the less powerful part (Thornton, 2007; Bennett, 1998; Arreguin -Toft, 2001; Mack, 1975). The essential characteristic of this term is the attack of vulnerabilities not appreciated by the adversary, using different operational concepts, doctrines, tactics, and weapons from those used in symmetric conventional confrontations

4. Cont Asymmetric Warfare describes conflicts where the conflicting parties possess significantly different military capabilities or strategies . Asymmetric warfare often occurs between a conventional military force and a non-state actor or insurgent group. Asymmetrical warfare may also refers to unconventional strategies, tactics and arms systems adopted by a force when its military capabilities towards its enemy are not simply unequal. Asymmetric also means a weaker state could defeat a more advanced adversary without resorting to extensive and costly direct military confrontation. Asymmetric warfare could also be defined as : “a form of warfare in which a non-state actor uses unconventional tools and tactics against a state’s vulnerabilities to achieve disproportionate effect, undermining the state’s will to achieve its strategic objectives”.

5. Four Global Strategic Trends

6. The Changing Global Strategic Trends Changing the architecture of the international system : its structure, its key organizing concepts, and the relations among its actors ; Changing the processes by which the international system operates , including diplomacy, competition/rivalry. Conflict and war; Creating new issue areas, new constraints, and trade-offs in the operational environment of defence and foreign policy , Providing a source of changed security perceptions , information, and transparency for the operation of the international system,

7. Three Related Geopolitical Shifts in Global Security Environments

8. The table below provides a snapshot of the security concerns as identified by the ASEAN Member States (ASEAN Security Outlook, 2021)

9. Cont.

10. What can we learn from the current Global Strategic Trends

11. Four Future Worlds (Ministry of Defence Uk , 2018)

12. National Intelligence Council, 2020

13. Trend of Global Defence Spending (UK Ministry of Defence, 2020)

14. Hard Power Politics (top 10-Active Military personnel, Military Balance 2023, 209)

15. Defense Spending by country and sub-region of Asian Countries (Military Balance 2023, 218)

16. Three main types of Asymmetric warfare ( Ajey Lele , 2014)

17. Six main types of potential asymmetric threats (Kenneth McKenzie, 2000)

18. Countering Asymmetric Warfare

19. White Paper on China’s Military Strategy (2015) “In response to security threats from different directions and in line with their current capabilities, the armed forces will adhere to the principles of flexibility, mobility, and self-reliance so that ‘ you fight your way and I fight mine ’”. “there is inferiority within superiority and weakness within strength and that high-tech advances in weaponry have left a wide margin for the weaker side, giving free rein to man’s superior courage and intelligence” (General Fu Quanyou , former Chief of Staff of Chinese Central Government, 1999)

20. Matrix of Asymmetric Warfare Political Superiority Political Inferiority Military Superiority Decisive Victory Asymmetric warfare as military war party Military inferiority Asymmetric warfare as paramilitary war party Decisive Defeat

21. Liddle Hart Concept of “Indirect Approach” in Asymmetric Warfare (Strategy, 1967)

22. Epilogue Carl von Clausewitz famously argued that “ war is the continuation of politics by other means ,” and that aphorism remains as true in the 21st century as it was in the 19th: The future of asymmetric warfare will depend on geopolitics and technology .

23. Thank You