Austra Lumina Hacking for Defense 2017

mission model, mission model canvas, customer development, Hacking for Defense, lean startup, stanford, startup, steve blank, Pete Newell, Joe Felter, minimum viable product

1. austra lumina Hacking For Defense , MS&E 297 Stanford University, Spring 2017

2. [ VIDEO ]

3. austra lumina Sponsor: USSOUTHCOM Week 10 Problem: Lack of communication and situational awareness capabilities with foreign partners hinders success of tactical operations. Solution: Create low-cost situational awareness and comms capability using commercial satellite networks linked to a mobile application . Week 0 Problem: New capabilities for persistent Illicit Maritime Activity Detection and Monitoring desired by SOUTHCOM/JIATF-S. Solution: Improve detection rates with data analytics . 101 interviews conducted

4. Xuan Hao Ong Sam Jackson Vishakh Hegde Benjamin Tan James Hennessy MS MS&E BS Aero. Engineering MBA BA Political Science MS ICME BS & MS Physics MS MS&E BSc Actuarial Science BS CS & Applied Mathematics Aerospace, Military Engineering & Design Technology Strategy & Ops Machine Learning, Computer Vision Military UAVs, Statistical Modeling Computer Science, Genomics Our Team

5. 101 Total Interviews

6. Our product journey… Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 Situational Awareness and Communications 3 Predictive Modeling 2 Persistent Monitoring 1 Data Analytics

7. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 Situational Awareness and Communications 3 Predictive Modeling 2 Persistent Monitoring 1 Data Analytics Primary Beneficiary Ops Analyst, Pilots Nav Officer, Ops Analyst Detection Crews JIATF-S + Foreign Law Enforcement Ops Analyst Our beneficiary journey…

8. Week Emotional State “So much to learn!” “It’s something they want!” “This could be years.” “So much we learned!” 2 4 6 8 10 Our own (emotional) journey…

9. “You don’t know how much you don’t know” - H4D Teaching Team The starting point for our journey

10. Joint Inter-Agency Task Force - South (JIATF-S) Law Enforcement / International Partners Dept. of Justice Our sponsor’s mission

11. Joint Inter-Agency Task Force - South (JIATF-S) Law Enforcement / International Partners Dept. of Justice First Focus Our first focus: Targeting and Detection

12. Targeting and Detection are the key mission goals; Analysts are the key beneficiary; Analytics tools can improve targeting & detection success Focus: Targeting and Detection

13. Key finding: Ocean is very, very big “ Even if you know where a [suspect] boat is, it may be days to intercept… ” - Captain, U.S. Coast Guard

14. “ We’re trying to detect small, fast-moving objects, in very large parts of the ocean… with persistent monitoring capacity issues. ” - US SOUTHCOM Sponsor Key finding: Insufficient sensor data, sensor platforms, to feed proposed models

15. Pivot #1 Detection → Monitoring Sensor capability, persistence are the challenges; Low-cost, unmanned platforms are the solution

16. Joint Inter-Agency Task Force - South (JIATF-S) Law Enforcement / International Partners Dept. of Justice New Focus New focus: Monitoring First Focus

17. “ We already have more known threats than we can pursue with our current assets… ” - Captain, U.S. Coast Guard However… “ The amount of drugs out of South America significantly exceeds our assets available to interdict.” - P-3 Pilot, U.S. Air Force

18. Data supported this concern 25% Targeted 7% 10% Detected 7% Disrupted 100%

19. Key discovery: Monitoring is not the bottleneck!

20. Our next question: If detection and monitoring are not bottlenecks, can we improve efficiency of existing missions?

21. Pivot #2 Persistent Monitoring → Mission Efficiency

22. Joint Inter-Agency Task Force - South (JIATF-S) Law Enforcement / International Partners Dept. of Justice New Focus Prior Focus New focus: Monitoring & Interdiction

23. “ Knowing where to look and where not to look can drastically increase the efficiency of the search.” - U-2 Pilot, U.S. Air Force Predicting the search space can enhance the effectiveness of each asset Key finding:

24. Goals: Actionably predict red forces behaviors Allocate assets (U.S., foreign) more efficiently austra lumina Prediction Model

25. “We understand the travelling salesman problem, but we do not even have a blue force tracker for foreign partners.” - JIATF-S Innovation Council However…

26. Pivot #3 Prediction Model → Tactical Communication

27. - Foreign Liaison Officers - Innovation and Technology, JIATF-S - U.S. P-3 Pilot, formerly operating out of El Salvador ES New focus: Tactical Communication

28. 2. Situational Awareness App 1. Satellite Communication Device Final MVP

29. “Sounds like people want to give you funding…” - US SOUTHCOM Sponsor “You guys are definitely on the right track… show the affordability model, and it will definitely be used.” - Senior Executive Service, Office of Naval Research Product Mission Fit (!)

30. Week Emotional State “So much to learn!” “It’s something they want!” “This could be years.” “So much we learned!” 2 4 6 8 10 From Discovery to Product Mission Fit

31. Data Analytics US SOUTHCOM JIATF-S Watch Floor US Interdiction Crew Tactical Communication US SOUTHCOM JIATF-S Watch Floor US Interdiction Crew Foreign Interdiction Crew Foreign Command Center Initial problem might not be the problem!!!

32. Mission Model Canvas Beneficiaries Key Activities Key Resources Key Partners Buy-In/Support Deployment Mission Achievement Mission Budget/Costs Value Proposition Market research into sat-comm device Develop Comms App interface Procure Sat-Comms device Workflow optimization and automation J72, USSOUTHCOM JIATF-S, USSOUTHCOM International Affairs, J9 Foreign LNOs and militaries (S. America) Sat-comms companies (eg Garmin, SPOT, TextAnywhere) Strategic - 15% increase in number of interdicted drug vessels Operational - x% reduction in number of illegal vessels “lost” at foreign partner level Tactical - x% reduction in a single OODA loop cycle (foreign interdiction missions) - x% reduction in time spent on detection Introduce MVP to Local Interceptor Crew, Nav Officers, and Proxies Small scale deployment of MVP to foreign interdiction crews of a single country JIATF-S and foreign partner level adoption and integration Fixed : Design & engineering (software/hardware) Market research Technology acquisition Variable: Technology updates Access to computational power Open-source data analysis tools UAV SMEs (as key sensor platform) Access to existing communication system Support from Internat. Affairs J9 and Foreign LNOs Ride on existing / introduce CotS systems Implementation by foreign interdiction crews or local proxies Increase detection effiiency: reduce time taken for detection through a clear, secured, line of direct communication Improve decision effectiveness and efficiency : allow Ops Analyst to better assist detection effort by allowing for instantaneous communication and real-time input of new intel Ease interdiction resource constraint: improve coordination/communication with interdiction agencies Primary Foreign partners’ Interceptor Crew deployed to investigate illegal ships Foreign partners’ Operations Center to coordinate the mission JIATF-S J3 Watch Floor Ops part of coordination effort Secondary USCG interdiction teams deployed to investigate illegal ships Tertiary Sat comm companies UIUX companies Value Proposition Increase detection efficiency Improve decision effectiveness and efficiency Ease interdiction resource constraint Beneficiaries Primary Foreign partners’ interceptor crew deployed to investigate illegal ships Foreign partners’ operations center in charge of the mission JIATF-S J3 Watch Floor Ops as part of the overall coordination agency

33. Week Emotional State “So much to learn!” “It’s something they want!” “This could be years.” “So much we learned!” 2 4 6 8 10 But what about Deployment?

34. Workflows Influencers This is an extremely complex space...

35. Key Factors influencing MVP Beneficiaries Key Activities Key Resources Key Partners Buy-In/Support Deployment Mission Achievement Mission Budget/Costs Value Proposition Market research into sat-comm device Develop Comms App interface Procure Sat-Comms device Workflow optimization and automation J72, USSOUTHCOM JIATF-S, USSOUTHCOM International Affairs, J9 Foreign LNOs and militaries (S. America) Sat-comms companies (eg Garmin, SPOT, TextAnywhere) Strategic - 15% increase in number of interdicted drug vessels Operational - x% reduction in number of illegal vessels “lost” at foreign partner level Tactical - x% reduction in a single OODA loop cycle (foreign interdiction missions) - x% reduction in time spent on detection Introduce MVP to Local Interceptor Crew, Nav Officers, and Proxies Small scale deployment of MVP to foreign interdiction crews of a single country JIATF-S and foreign partner level adoption and integration Fixed : Design & engineering (software/hardware) Market research Technology acquisition Variable: Technology updates Access to computational power Open-source data analysis tools UAV SMEs (as key sensor platform) Access to existing communication system Support from Internat. Affairs J9 and Foreign LNOs Ride on existing / introduce CotS systems Implementation by foreign interdiction crews or local proxies Increase detection effiiency: reduce time taken for detection through a clear, secured, line of direct communication Improve decision effectiveness and efficiency : allow Ops Analyst to better assist detection effort by allowing for instantaneous communication and real-time input of new intel Ease interdiction resource constraint: improve coordination/communication with interdiction agencies Primary Foreign partners’ Interceptor Crew deployed to investigate illegal ships Foreign partners’ Operations Center to coordinate the mission JIATF-S J3 Watch Floor Ops part of coordination effort Secondary USCG interdiction teams deployed to investigate illegal ships Tertiary Sat comm companies UIUX companies Information Security Trust Upkeep Cost

36. Buy-in and Support Key finding: Trust matters… But is sometimes lacking

37. Country 1 Country 2

38. “We do not want to reveal pattern of life.” - Operational Test and Evaluation, JIATF-S “Many startups fail because they neglected security concerns.” - H4D Teaching Team Lesson Engage security experts early on in product development Problem: Information Security

39. “Communicating common situational picture currently takes up a huge bandwidth and [satellite comm.] is expensive ” Deputy Director of International Affairs, JIATF-S Solution Leverage existing devices - Light communication Problem: Cost

40. Week Emotional State “So much to learn!” “It’s something they want!” “This could be years.” “So much we learned!” 2 4 6 8 10 Where do we end?

41. The path forward… … May involve pursuing ONR or USSOUTHCOM resources to keep going! … but at the least will include details for how our sponsor can pursue the next steps Where do we end?

42. Proof of concept with a simple prototype of low-fidelity Minimum Viable Product Video has more details of prototype in action! Where does our product end? (TRL / IRL)

43. Our work would not have been possible without our sponsors (and other supporters) Special thanks to: Our direct sponsors at USSOUTHCOM: Mr. Juan Hurtardo, LTC Todd Moe, Dr. Andrew Higier Our supporters in JIATF-S: Mr. Fred Scali, MAJ Marada Phillips Our mentor: Daniel Bardenstein And not least, the additional 80+ contacts who generously provided their time… Thank you for your consistent support, feedback, and engagement! Acknowledgement and Thanks

44. Additional questions? Contact us at: [email protected] Or individually: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Additional questions? Read more about our journey: australumina.wordpress.com

45. Appendix

46. We have sought to capture the flow of mission achievement from a tactical, operational, and strategic level We have also drawn a distinction between “mission achievement” and “systems achievement” Based on in-depth sponsor and stakeholder interviews, we believer we will deliver results in both dimensions Mission achievement: Mission speed ++ Mission success rate ++ Systems achievement: Cost -- Capability ++ These will support the ultimate mission of JIATF-S, USSOUTHCOM, and partner nations: disrupt illict activities, and illict networks Mission Achievement Mission achievement – draft framework

47. (Not included in submitted materials) Available for upload for final documentation purposes