basic 8d problem solving tools methods- rev2.pptx

basic 8d problem solving tools methods- rev2.

1. Basic 8D Problem Solving: Tools & Methods A . R . A l v a r e z A R A TR A I N I N G ARA (Dec 2015) - © 2015 - A R A T R A I NI N G

2. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Problem Solving Outline - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 2 Part 1: Overview of Methods (Plan) Problem Solving Principles Contrasting Different Approaches PDCA / 4D & 8D Framework D1 – D2: Form Team & Define Problem Part 2: Step-By-Step Problem Solving (Do) D3: Implement Containment D4: Identify Possible Root Causes D5: Identify Root Cause Corrective Actions Part 3: Problem Solving Wrap-Up (Check & Act) D6 – D8: Verify Corrective Actions, Prevent Recurrence, Document Results & Recognize Team Appendix

3. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G No One Way to Problem Solving Success - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 3 But Some Are Better Than Others Good Ones Have Many Common Elements

4. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Integrate Different Perspective Data D r i v e n K no wl e d g e Driven Question Driven I n t e g r a t e - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 4

5. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 5 A R A T R A I NI N G Utilize Simple Tools

6. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Ask & Answer Simple Questions - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 6 What is The Problem? Why is it a Problem? What Are The Goals? How Long Will it Take to Solve? How Much Will it Cost to Solve? Get Tracked & Managed Like a Project

7. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Avoid Artificial Constraints - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 7 Constraints Will Always Exist Real Constraints Need to Be Respected, But Also Challenged Where Can Constraints Appear During Problem Solving? How Do You Become Aware & Overcome Constraints? Sub-Conscious Assumed Very Real Constraints

8. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Fit Method to Problem - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 8 Different Problems May Require Different Approaches Be A d a p t i v e Use as Simple an Approach as Possible

9. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G PDCA: Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 9 Plan (Define Problem, Pick Factors, …) Do ( Design / Execute Experiments) Check (Analysis / Implementation / Verification) Act (Make Conclusion, Define Next Step)

10. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 10 (3) Implement C o n t a i n m e n t (2) Define P r ob l e m (1) Form Team ( 5 ) I d e n t if y R oot A ct i ons 8 D P r o ce s s A R A T R A I NI N G 8 D P r o b l e m S o l v i n g M e t ho d (4) Identify C a u s e C o r r e ct i v e P oss i b l e R oot C a u s e s (6) Verify Co r r e ct i v e Actions (7) Prevent Recurrence (8) D ocu me n t Results & Recognize Team

11. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 11 A R A T R A I NI N G III. Containment (If Any) Stop-Gap Measure - Triage; Not Root-Cause Fix Purpose: Minimize / Control / Isolate Problem; For Both Customers & Company Screen/Purge/Sequester Inventory/WIP? Similar Devices/Flows? Specify Anything That Has to Change to Make “Fix” Timeline: “Fast” Implementation: “Quick and Easy” When is No Containment Required? Most of The Basic Tools Used in Subsequent Sections Applicable at This Step Too; Pick & Choose

12. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 12 A R A T R A I NI N G Containment Exercise

13. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 13 (4) Identify Possible Root Causes (2) Define P r ob l e m (1) Form Team ( 5 ) Identify Root C a u s e C o r r e ct i v e Actions 8 D P r o ce s s ARA TRAINING 8D Problem Solving Method (3) Implement Co nt a i n me n t (6) Verify Co r r e ct i v e Actions (7) Prevent Recurrence (8) D ocu me n t Results & Recognize Team

14. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G IV. Identify Root Cause(s) - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 14 Hypothesis Generation (Brainstorming/Fishbone) Prioritize Which Hypotheses to Pursue (Heuristic or Prioritization Tools) Passive & Active Data Gathering (Statistical Tools) Can Root Cause Be Duplicated? What Allowed Failure? (System, Spec, Procedure)

15. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 15 A R A T R A I NI N G Problem Bug Matrix Example of Work Breakdown Simple Way of: Assigning Ownership Defining Issue Clarifying Hypothesis Tracking Schedule Efficient Communication How to Generate Hypothesis? How to Prioritize Which to Pursue? Responsible: Name Fix Schedule Problem Type (E / M / H) Hypothesis COL (Act/Fcst) Confirm Contain Root C a u s e Doc 1 2 3 4 5

16. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 16 A R A T R A I NI N G “Why”, “What If”, “How” Progression “Why” Questions Catalyst in This Progression Could Drive Potential Game Changers “Why is This Happening?”, Why are We Doing This?”, “Why is This the Right Approach”, ... “What If” Questions Signals Beginning of The Search For Solutions Prompts Unconstrained, Blue-sky Thinking “What if We Could ....” “How” Questions Get Down to Brass Tacks “How Do We Get This Done?” http://www.strategy-business.com/blog/Innovation-Begins-with-Three-Questions?gko=50d8a

17. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 17 A R A T R A I NI N G Affinity Diagram Optional, But Useful Step That Aids Brainstorming Often Used as Input to Fishbone or Tree Diagram Creative Thinking: Gathers Large Amounts of Language Data Organizes it Into Groupings Based on Relations, and Defines Groups Encourages True Participation. When To Use: Maps Geography: Facts/Thought Chaotic; Complex Issues To Grasp Breakthroughs in Traditional Concepts Needed Support For a Solution is Essential For Success

18. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 18 A R A T R A I NI N G Construction of Affinity Diagram Assemble Right Team: Interdisciplinary & Fresh Problem Statement to Be Considered: Make Specific P r o b l e m St a t e m e n t  H y p o t h e s i s o f C a u s e ? – D o n e i n S t e p D 4 P r o b l e m St a t e m e n t  H y p o t h e s i s o f F i x ? – D on e i n St e p D 5 Generate & Record Ideas: Everyone Participates No Criticism, Emphasize Large Quantity in Short Time Be Concise, Use Noun and Verb, Record Exactly, Post-It Notes Display Completed Cards: Mix Cards / Spread Randomly Arrange Cards Into Related (6 – 10) Groups React (don't contemplate), Ok to disagree, Silent process, high energy Create Header Cards For Each Group Identify Card That Captures Central Idea; Ties Group Cards Together If No Such Card Exists, Create It (Be Concise) Draw Finished Affinity Diagram Draw Lines Around Each Grouping, Connecting All Items With Header Card

19. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) A R A T R A I NI N G Affinity Diagram Example 1 9 E xa m p l e : Pitfalls & Issues: Will Yield Both Jewels & Junk; Refine Latter Doesn't Show Interrelationships Organizes New Thoughts For Further Elaboration Works Best in Conjunction With Fishbone or Tree Diagram Can Be Overdone as Tries to Get Group to React From Gut Level Encourages True Participation in Group Setting; Don’t Judge Also Works as Individual Exercise

20. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 20 A R A T R A I NI N G Fishbone Diagram Categories: People : Anyone Involved With Process Methods : How Process is Performed & Specific Requirements For Doing It; Policies, Procedures, Rules, Regulations and Laws Machines : Any Equipment, Computers, Tools, Etc. Required to Accomplish Job Materials : Raw Materials, Parts, Pens, Paper, Etc. Used to Produce Final Product Measurements : Data Generated From Process Used to Evaluate Quality Environment : Conditions Such as Location, Plant, Time, Temperature, and Culture P r o b l e m or Defect Wikipedia (Cause & Effect or Ishikawa Diagram) Tool For Organizing Possible Root Causes of Problem Two Possible Fishbones: What Contributes to Problem? How Did Defect Get Out?

21. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 21 A R A T R A I NI N G Fishbone Diagram (Cause & Effect or Ishikawa Diagram) Other Types: 4Ps (Generic) : People, Procedures, Plant/Technology, Policies 6Ms (Manufacturing) : Machine (technology), Method, Material, Manpower, Measurement/Metrics, Mother Nature (Environment) 7Ps (Marketing) ; Product/Service , Price , Place , Promotion , People, Process, Physical Evidence (or 4Ps – Underlined) 5Ss (Service) : Surroundings, Suppliers, Systems, Skills, Safety When To Use: Organize Result of Brainstorming or Affinity Diagram Need to Keep Track of Complex System of Input-Outputs Documentation of Organizational Learning Critical Pitfalls: Doesn't Tell Where to Devote Resources Doesn't Show Interrelationships Can Be Overdone (Down to Atoms); Show Possible, Not Necessarily Actual

22. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Fishbone Diagram Construction - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 22 Choose Goal or Problem Statement From D2; Insure Closed Loop With Original Problem Statement Assemble Right Team Specialized Knowledge Required; Action Plan Generate Major Fishbone Headings (Choose Template) Complete Fishbone Diagram Brainstorming or Affinity Diagram Details Focus is on Causes of / Contributors to Problem Review Completed Fishbone for Completeness

23. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 23 A R A T R A I NI N G Tree Diagram Alternative to Fishbone Diagram Can Help Structure “Five Whys” Analysis Linear Thinking: Systematically Maps Detail For Paths & Tasks Needed Key Questions Answered: What is Sequence of Tasks ? What are Problem Components ? What are Possible Hypotheses? Does the Logic Hang Together? How Complex Will Solution Be? What are Assignable Tasks/Options ?

24. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G T r e e D i a g r a m C on s t r u c t i o n - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 2 4 Choose Goal or Problem Statement From D2; Insure Closed Loop With Original Problem Statement Original Issues Assemble Right Team Specialized Knowledge Required; Action Plan Generate Major Tree Headings First Level Can Often Be Alternative Hypotheses Second Level Can Then Be Ways to Test Hypotheses (Or Data to Get) Complete Tree Under Major Paths Continue Breaking Down Paths Until Have Actionable Items Direct Cause & Effect from Level to Level Review Completed Tree For Logical Flow Works Only if Doing Each Level is Internally Consistent with Next Higher Level

25. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 25 A R A T R A I NI N G Tree Diagram Example E xa m p l e : When To Use: "Simple" Task Runs Into Repeated Roadblocks Complex Implementation Large Consequences for Missing Key Tasks Pitfalls: Doesn't Tell Where To Devote Resources Doesn't Show Interrelationships C a n B e O v e r do n e ( D o w n T o A t o m s )

26. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 26 A R A T R A I NI N G Visual, Schematic Representation That Illustrates Key Concepts & Relationships Between Those Concepts Consists of Nodes & Labeled Lines Hierarchically Arranged: Inclusive to Less Inclusive / General to Specific Useful in Organizing Different Types of Knowledge: Structural (Types & Numbers of Links) Conceptual (Links &Concepts) Declarative (Missing Nodes or Links) Possible Follow-up Step After Affinity Diagram or Brainstorming Can Help Convey Broad Outline To Group Concept Map http://tccl.rit.albany.edu/knilt/images/0/09/ConceptMapExample.gif O p t i o n a l Topic

27. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 27 A R A T R A I NI N G Electricity Concept Map https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c3/Electricity_Concept_Map.gif O p t i o n a l Topic

28. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 28 A R A T R A I NI N G Concept Map Construction Assemble Right Team (Same as Before, Adjust as Necessary) Problem Statement to Be Considered Problem Statement  Hypothesis of Cause? – Done in Step D4 (Tie to D2) P r o b l e m S t a t e m e n t  H y p o t h e s i s o f F i x ? – D on e i n St e p D 5 Generate & Record Ideas: Everyone Participates If Previously Created an Affinity Diagram, That is A Good Starting Point If Not Brainstorm to Generate Ideas & Group With Cards/Notes Arranged In Related (6 – 10) Groups Draw Lines Between Terms That are Related Most General/Inclusive Concepts Come First, The Links to More Specific Concepts On Lines Write Nature of Relationship Between Terms Once Basic Links Created, Add Cross-Links Which Connect Concepts in Different Areas Review “Finished” Concept Map Examine Diagram to Look For Missing Terms and/or New Relationships; Adds as Appropriate O p t i o n a l Topic

29. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 29 A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritization Matrices Decision Making Tool: Rationally Narrow Down Focus or Hypothesis to Pursue Before Detailed Implementation Planning Prioritize Possible Solutions, Tasks, Issues, Product/Service Characteristics Based On Known Weighted Criteria Three Types: Simplified Matrix Full Analytical Criteria Method Consensus Method (Appendix) Criteria 1 2 3 4 5 Total 1. Salary 2. Cost of Living 3. No Raise Policy 4. Stock 5. Quality of Life 6. Earthquakes 7. Cypress Rep 8. Pressure 9. Heavy workload 10. Intensity

30. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritizing Hypotheses to Pursue: Simplest Approach – Data vs. Assumptions - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 30 Supporting Data Lo w H i g h Few A s s u m p t i on s Required M a n y Suggested by Chris Silsby

31. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Quantified Prioritization - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 31 Assign "Value" to Parts of Problem or Solutions Step 1: Decide Criteria & Category (Pick Scale) Big 3: Impact, Cost, Time Use Log/Power (10X or 2 x …), Not Linear Scale Separate Solution & Problem Source Step 2: Complete Matrix & Calcs Fast Triage Expose Bias (History, Data) Resolve Conflict Criteria Total 1. Method 16 1 8 4 29 2. Manpower 2 4 2 2 10 3. Materials 4 2 1 1 8 4. Machinery 8 16 16 16 56 O p t i on a l Topic

32. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 32 A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritization Matrix Example Example: When To Use: Prioritization is Going to Happen By Design or Default - Hunch, Vote, Mandate, etc. Implicit vs. Explicit Prioritization Key Issues Identified; Must Narrow Identified Key Relations; Not Strengths Agreed Criteria for "Good" Solution; Need Consensus on Relative I m p o r t an ce ( B o s s/ T e a m o r W i t h i n T e a m A li g n m e n t)

33. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritization Matrices Guidelines - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 33 Takes Time, Fit Tool to Problem; Doesn’t Have to Be Used That Often (1 in 10?) Separate Possible Hypotheses / Problems to Evaluate vs. Possible Solutions to Implement (Clear Goals/Definitions) Value is in The Process, Not in Final Number Using Linear Instead of Log/Power Scale (No Differentiation)

34. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritization is Critical - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 34 Why are There So Many Slides on Prioritization? Team Member Time Efficiency is Critical Resource to Rapid and Effective Problem Resolution Spending Time on The Right Hypothesis is Required to Know Root Cause; Don’t Just Run Out and “Do” Don’t Confuse Motion With Progress Don’t Have a Fast Trigger, But a Slow Bullet Saves Company Time & Money (People, Yield, Customer Relationship, Etc.) Do The Right Things, Not Just Do Things Right!

35. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Root Cause Identification: Data - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 35 What Data Do You Need at This Stage? How Much Data Do You Need? How are You Going to Get It? How Long is It Going to Take You to Get It?

36. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G “Experts’ & Peers Vendors Literature Experimentation: Machine / Si Rifleshot Experiments vs. Statistical DOEs Acquiring Knowledge - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 36

37. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 37 A R A T R A I NI N G Active Data G a t h e r i n g Passive Data G a t h e r i n g Process Flow Diagram Identify Key Product Characteristics Identify Key Process Parameters S t e p / M ac hin e Isolated? Prioritize (Pareto), Fishbone, Etc. DO E s Process Capable? Solution? Y e s Simple Correlation Analysis Process Flow, Etest Parameters, Best vs. Worst, F ai l ure An a l y s i s S tru c tu r e d/ S t r a t i f i e d Sampling Time, Equipment Shift, Lot -Lot, Within Run/Lot, Within Wfr, Etc, Control Ch a rts No Yes Convergence to Factor Decision Tree Conv e r g e n c e T o S t e p Decision Tree Randomized Sequence Split Lots @ N Steps No Is Step Isolated? No Y e s No No Y e s Y e s

38. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) A R A T R A I NI N G Picking Them How Many? Control & Noise Factors Continuous & Categorical Whenever Have Zero % of a Variable, a ‘Continuous’ Variable is Effectively Discontinuous; i.e. No vs. Yes (Jake) Picking the Range Visual Hypothesis (Jake) Equivalent Impacts As You Open the Space, the Risk of Variables Going From Continuous to Categorical Increases How Many Measurements (Memory)? Sources of Variation Hierarchical & Directed Sampling 3 8 Experimental Factors

39. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Screening Factorials Low Knowledge Level Experimental Design: The Knowledge Line - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 39 High Knowledge Level R S M Statistical DOE Framework Dupont

40. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 40 Low Solar Cell Efficiency Photon Loss Carrier Loss El e c t r i ca l L o s s (3 COL) Back Contact Problem (4 COL) Junction Problem (5 COL) Front Electrode Passivation (4 COL) Gridline Problem (2 COL) Lifetime Problem (3 COL) A R A T R A I NI N G COL Problem Solving Flowchart Front Texture Problem (2 COL) Contributes? ARC Problem Contributes? Focus is on Identification of Root Cause of Problem

41. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 41 (2) Define P r ob l e m (1) Form Team (5) Identify Root Cause Corrective Actions (Fix) 8 D P r o ce s s A R A T R A I NI N G 8 D P r o b l e m S o l v i n g M e t ho d (3) Implement Co nt a i n me n t ( 4 ) Identify Possible Root Causes (6) Verify Co r r e ct i v e Actions (7) Prevent Recurrence (8) D ocu me n t Results & Recognize Team

42. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 42 A R A T R A I NI N G V. Corrective Action(s) Plan Once (Possible) Root Cause(s) of a Problem Are Identified – Need to Determine Solution(s) Plan: Best Solution Path(s) and Why: Root Cause Fix Line Between Hypothesis Testing (Identifying Root Cause of Problem) and Determining Solution (Root Cause) Distinct But Blurs Who Will Implement? When Will It Be Done? Verification of Fix Can Problem Be Turned Off & On? Is Root Cause Controllable? Will Not Cause Undesirable Effects (Unintended Consequences) Verification is Proof BEFORE Implementation Validation is Proof AFTER Implementation

43. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) A R A T R A I NI N G Generating Possible Solutions In General Preferable to Start With Broad List of Possible Solutions; Seek Diversity of Options (Divergence) Can Use Same Brainstorming Tools Employed for Hypothesis Generation For Generating Possible Solutions Once Reasonable Set of Possible Solutions Generated, Same Prioritization Techniques Can Be Employed to Determine Which Solution(s) to Pursue (Convergence) Many of The Tools (In Particular Statistical Methods) Used to Identify Root Cause of Problem Can Be Reused to Determine Root Cause Fix As Before, Keep an Eye on Assumptions & Watch Out for False Constraints 4 3

44. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 44 A R A T R A I NI N G Measures of Performance In Any Problem Solving Methodology, Need Criteria to Which The Solution’s Performance Can Be Measured: Efficacy (E 1 ): Indicates, Whether The Solution or Process Provides The Intended Outcome That Intended Outcome May, However, Not Be What is Required for a Complete Soln Efficiency (E 2 ): Resources: Indicates Whether The Least Possible Amount of Resources Are Being Used to Implement The Solution Outcome: Indicates Whether the Simplest / Lowest Cost / Quickest (Pick Appropriate Criteria) is Being Used to Implement The Solution Effectiveness (E 3 ): Indicates, Whether The Solution Provides a Root-Cause-Fix And/Or Helps Realize a More Long-term Goal http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CATWOE#CATWOE

45. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 45 A R A T R A I NI N G Re-Purpose Problem Solving Tools Previously Tools Employed to Find Root Cause of Problem Now Tools Employed to Determine Root Cause Fix Re-Focused Affinity Diagram Re-Focused and Expanded Tree (or Fishbone) Diagram Need to Prioritize Possible Solution Paths Choice of Factors & Ranges Re-Set; Experimental Techniques Less Exploratory, More Directive Need to to Estimate Cycles of Learning/Schedule for Solution(s) Flowchart Solution Paths to Track Convergence

46. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Prioritizing Actions to Take: Simplest Approach - Impact vs. Difficulty - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 46 Difficulty (Time, People, $s, . . .) H i g h Impact Low E as y H a r d

47. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 47 A R A T R A I NI N G Flow Charts Implementation Planning Tool: Maps Out Conceivable Events & Contingencies. Identifies Counter- Measures to Problems When To Use: Compare Actual & Ideal Paths in Order to Identify Deviations Task is New, Unique, or Complex High Stakes & Efficient Implementation Critical Contingencies are Plausible

48. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 48 A R A T R A I NI N G Baseline Process 1990/91 Fab Litho Equipment ASM G Line - 0.8µ 195Å Gox 0.8µ ± 0.15µ None Considered Seriously  C E M 0.6 5 µ GOX = 165Å|5V Vcc  Gox Quick To Market: Samples in Q3 Large Overlap For Drive & Reliability Poly Doping? Shallow LDDs Low S/D Resistance Better SCE, Poorer Drive & Rel N+/P+ or P+ Higher Performance  N+ Deeper Tips, Higher DIBL  LATI ($, Retrofit), Low Temp FDOX & Post Silicide NSDI Post N+/P+ S/D Tips Disposable Spacer Alternatives Market Inputs  Medium Doped LDD Conventional S/D  Salicide - Yield, 4T Cell Compatibility 25ns 1M SRAM - 400 mil Package Use Existing Design A

49. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 49 A R A T R A I NI N G Flowchart Example E xa m p l e : Flowchart Themes: Implementation Path With Fewest or Least Serious "What Ifs" is Best Alternative Weigh Risk vs. Reward Define Boundaries of Process Clearly Every Feedback Loop Needs an Escape Clearly Shows Holes in Plans Good Communication Tool Can Also Be Extremely Useful in Analyzing Past History

50. Basic Problem Solving Assemble Right Team (Must Know Details of Problem) Determine Basic Flow of Proposed Activities Start Broad, Add Detail in Layers Later Think Straight Line Choose Chart Format (Graphical or Outline) Construct PDPC Place Branches in Sequential Order of Implementation Layers: Implementation Steps "What Ifs" Countermeasures "What Could Go Wrong?", "What Are Options?" Pick Countermeasure And/Or Alternatives Evaluate Feasibility/Necessity (Label) Review: Sanity Check Flow, Compare to Ideal; Check Completeness - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 50 A R A T R A I NI N G Flowchart Construction

51. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Gantt Diagrams Pert Charts Spreadsheet W3s Other But…. … These are All “Linear” Tools That Breakdown in a “Non-Deterministic” World Scheduling Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 51

52. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ARA (Dec 15) 52 A R A T R A I NI N G The Knowledge “Gap” B a s e li n e Goal 1 Kno w l e d g e Gap Goal 2 Time Baseline vs. Goal: The Larger The Gap, The Less You Know Goal “Gap” = Knowledge “Gap” To Close the Knowledge “Gap” Need Cycles of Learning (COL) Beware of Overconfidence (How Much Do You Really Know?) G o a l

53. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Knowledge Gap & Cycles of Learning - © 2015 - Easy # COLs ? Time/Cycle Medium # COLs ? T im e / C yc le Hard # COLs ? Time/Cycle Define Your Problem Which Bucket ? 53 ARA (Dec 15) What’s Your Batting Average ? What Did You Learn ?

54. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G What is a Cycle of Learning? - © 2015 - 1. Problem Identification/Hypothesis Specify Desired Outcome Prioritized Input / Output Data Collection & Analysis Perform Work/Experiment 6. Confirmation of Effects Process Standardization (if Done) Planning Next Step (Learning Cycle) Deming’s PDCA Cycle P l a n D o C h e c k A c t 54 ARA (Dec 15)

55. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Scheduling Problem Solving - © 2015 - 55 ARA (Dec 15) Point 1: Complexity is Not Your Friend Save Invention For Where it Adds Value Eliminate it Everywhere Else “Buy” Knowledge Point 2: What Are You Doing? Two Parts: How Many (PDCA) Cycles? Time Per Cycle What Impacts # of Cycles? What Impacts Time Per Cycle?

56. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G S o l u t i o n - © 2015 - 56 ARA (Dec 15) Combine COL Forecasting With Conventional Scheduling Methods Use COL Methodology to Forecast Non-Deterministic Steps Use PERT (or Favorite Method) to Keep Track of Tasks Apply Best Practices (Scrubbing, Schedule Monitoring, etc.) to Minimize Deviations Suggest Separately Estimating COL/Time For Determining Root Cause vs. Root Cause Fix (Overlap)

57. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - A R A T R A I NI N G COL Problem Solving Flowchart Low Solar Cell Efficiency Photon Loss Carrier Loss El e c t r i ca l L o s s Front Texture Problem (2 COL) ARC Problem (3 COL) Back Contact Problem (4 COL) Junction Problem (5 COL) Front Electrode Passivation (4 COL) Gridline Problem (2 COL) Lifetime Problem (3 COL) Contributes? Contributes? If ARC ~ 3 Mth If FT ~5 Mth If BC ~ 2 Mth Start: T = 57 ARA (Dec 15) T = ~7 Weeks T = ~12 Weeks Focus is on Driving to a Root Cause Fix

58. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Ultimate Test: Right Direction? - © 2015 - 58 ARA (Dec 15) Progress or Motion ? Entropy vs. Convergent Consistent Kill or Move Forward? Repeated Slips ? Step Back and Diagnose Issue(s) Typical: Excess AIPs, Capability, Subject Matter Knowledge, Team Dynamics, Outside Interference, … Its OK (Good) to Get Help if Project is In Trouble

59. Basic Problem Solving A R A T R A I NI N G Problem Solving Outline - © 2015 - Part 1: Overview of Methods (Plan) Problem Solving Principles Contrasting Different Approaches PDCA / 4D & 8D Framework D1 – D2: Form Team & Define Problem Part 2: Step-By-Step Problem Solving (Do) D3: Implement Containment D4: Identify Possible Root Causes D5: Identify Root Cause Corrective Actions ■ Part 3: Problem Solving Wrap-Up (Check & Act) ■ D6 – D8: Verify Corrective Actions, Prevent Recurrence, Document Results & Recognize Team ■ Appendix Part 3 Next 59 ARA (Dec 15)

60. Basic Problem Solving - © 2015 - ( 4 ) 60 ARA (Dec 15) I d e n t if y C a u s e s (3) Implement Co nt a i n me n t (2) Define P r ob l e m (1) Form Team (7) Prevent Recurrence (8) D ocu me n t Results & Recognize Team ( 5 ) I d e n t if y R oot C a u s e C o r r e ct i v e P oss i b l e R oot A ct i ons (6) Verify Co r r e ct i v e Actions 8 D P r o ce s s A R A T R A I NI N G 8 D P r o b l e m S o l v i n g M e t ho d