Building a better Britain: How cities like Bradford can help to end economic stagnation

Presentation at Resolution Foundation event in Bradford.

1. Building a better Britain =

How cities like Bradford can help to end economic
stagnation

Tracy Brabin, Mayor of West Yorkshire
Kersten England, Chair of Bradford Culture Company

Rozina Breen, CEO and Editor-in-Chief of The Bureau of
Investigative Journalism

Hannah Slaughter, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation
Chair: Torsten Bell, Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation

2. The problem

3. We're over a decade into economic stagnation
Rolling decadal growth rates of GDP per capita and real wages: GB/UK

+40%
+30%
+20%

+10%

0%

-10%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Note: oli average ofeach ale he ra ar contra onto at shown. compared tothe tive ear centre onthe dat 10 years previous For example

2020 shows growth Between 2009-201 and 20192001, UK data for GDP and incomes, GB dat
Baca Ara Of Ban ot Ena Milena of Mactocearennc Data OBR Economia std Foca Gettook, March 2022: ONS, RHDI:ONS, UK resident population

4. Today's low growth combines with long-lasting high inequality

Gini coefficient for equivalised disposable household income (after housing costs): UK
45%

40%
35%

30%

25%

20%
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996- 2001- 2006- 2011- 2016- 2021-

97 02 07 12 17 2

Notes: Gintcoefcon ealelated using income aftr housing costs UK fom 2008-04, Great Brian from 1961 10 2002-03
Source: Anais of FS, Ling Standards, Poverty and Inoqualiy 2020; DMP, Households Below Average Incomes, 2021

5. Towards an economic strategy

6. Our big cities are holding back growth

Proportion of workforce with a degree-level qualification (horizontal axis) and gross value added per job
(vertical axis): UK cities (metro areas), 2017-19

Output per job
£80k
Swindon o © -London
* Milton Keynes
£70k
Mina Meat: Edinburgh O
o

860k Birmingham Leeds
£50k 29.

bb Brighton ánd Hove

>. 0%,
O Bradford >
£30k |

25% 35% 45% 55%

Graduates as share of workforce

Notes Bubble size represents sizeof population
Source: Analysis of ONS. Subregiona produc ONS, Annual Population Survey ONS, Experimental regional goss fe capital formation estimates by

‘asset types; ZUKLEMS, Capital input data.

7. Being more like France = boosting large cities outside London

Gross value added (GVA) per worker by country and area: 2018

United Kingdom |

ie
H i
| Bradfoid/

Toulouse
O...

$50k $60k $70k $80k $90k $100k $110k $120k $130k

Notes PPP juste. Spat urs ea combination o OECD moto regions and NUTS3 for non eto regions Bubbles are proportional to the nub of workers in
gach region. Gross value added ( the value ofa unis outputs less the value of inputs used in the production process to produce the outputs.
as OECD Ron al Eros) Data

France

8. Different cities have different strengths

Proportion of employment, by job type and local authority: GB, 2021

100% +-
mReal estate
80% | m Other production
= Public knowledge-
60% intensive services
mLess-knowiedge-
intensive service
40% mFinance
m Knowledge-intensive
services
20%
mLow-tech manufacturing
0% High-tech manufacturing

Bradford Leeds AlIGB cities

Note: Based on $62 Digi employment shares, Sector organ by ONS: Mig tech manufacturing includes pharmaceutical and electronics, Low ech manufacturing
ipeudes textiles pod tobacc, paper and wood products. Oir KI includes pubishing and pubic services. Less KS icles rta, arsportation an hospital.
Source: Analysis of ONS, Business Register and Employment Survey.

9. But the UK's comparative advantage lies in services 5030
Exports of services (current USD), by selected countries: 2019

United States

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Ireland

China

Japan

Netherlands

Spain

Belgium

Italy
0 100 200 300 400 500 60 700 800 900 1000

Source: International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Statistios Vearbook and data files. o

10. Getting serious about growth = being an investment nation

Gross fixed capital formation as a proportion of GDP: selected advanced economies
60%

50%

Range of advanced economies excluding the UK

30%

20%

10%

0%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

oies: Suathe includes Austral Aus Belgium, Canada Czech Republic Denmak storia Finland, France, Germany. Grgce Ilan Irland sel, ta Japan
Korea, Latvia, Lituania, Luxembourg, más New Zexand, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Span, Sweden, Switzerland and United States.
Source: Analysis of OECD. Aggregate National Recounts,

11. Getting serious about growth = being an investment nation

Gross fixed capital formation as a proportion of GDP: selected advanced economies
60% = ei =

ee u Public and
private
investment

40%
Public

30% investment — and
public services —

20% funded by more,
but better, tax

10%

0%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
is aa es sra us, io an Car epi. Der Ent. Fn an German rg oa. od el ay en
rea

atvia. Li Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United States. "
Seater D lO Pr Malal Ate

12. Our cities face inequality challenges

Proportion of pupils achieving grades 5 or above in English and mathematics GCSEs, by local authority:
and whether eligible for free school meals: England, 2022-23

Eligible for free
school meals Other children

England . : .
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Source: DIE, Local authority district and region of school location data by FSM and cisadvantage status. econony2080sesolutionfoundationorg e

13. Our cities face inequality challenges

Proportion of pupils achieving grades 5 or above in English and mathematics GCSEs, by local authority:

and whether eligible for free school meals: England, 2022-23

Bristol

.
Sheffield °

Bradford .
Nottingham e

Leeds .

Leicester | e
Manchester e
Birmingham .

London e

Eligible for free
school meals

England .

Other children
+

10% 20% 30% 40%

Source: DIE, Local authority district and region of school location data by FSM and cisadvantage status.

50% 60%

economy2030.resolutionfoundation.arg,

14. Getting serious about inequality = a strong safety net + good jobs

Real value of unemployment benefits as a proportion of average weekly earnings: UK
35% +

30%

25%

Unemployment
benefits

20% |.

15% |

10% r r r r . . - - 5
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Notes: Unemployment benefits refers to single person 25+ Jobscekers Allowance rate and Universal Credit standard allowance. 12-manth rolling average.
Source: Analysis of DWP, Abstract of Benefit Statistics; OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outiook November 2023.

15. Getting serious about inequality = a strong safety net + good jobs

Real value of unemployment benefits as a proportion of average weekly earnings: UK

And improving
nn nn nn - securityinthe
labour market,
especially for low-
paid workers

30%

EEE En A A oeceececccneeeeenceeeeenensenensnneeseneeseesesesenensenenseesneneenseeeeenenenes

Unemployment
benefits
20% |

15%

10% r r r . . - 5
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Notes: Unemployment benefits refers to single person 25+ Jobscekers Allowance rate and Universal Credit standard allowance. 12-manth rolling average. 5
Source: Analysis of DWP, Abstract of Benefit Statistics: OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2023.

16. Eyes on the prize

17. The UK can plausibly both become richer and more equal

Gini coefficient and average disposable income per capita: OECD countries, 2019

$60,000 -

| Richer and more equal Richer and less equal |

e United States

2
E :

S $50,000 poo Luxembourg...

5 i | Nopway i @ Switzerland

2 ustria. Canedlanetherlands

$40,000 ce pgfane e Austra +

e Zealand |

2 i elotes i

S 830,000 Yo... Spain «+ ---- United Kingdom ----

> ! Israel i

= H O Portugal? @ ie H H
3 520000 ei.

= Greece H Turkey .

& ! CostaRica
© $10,000 i po : i
g : H H ! Mexico H

<

Poorer and more equal

Poorer and less equal

20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Gini coefficient

$0

Notes: Income is equivalised and PPP adjusted.
Source: OECD, Income Inequality Database,

18. The UK can plausibly both become richer and more equal

Gini coefficient and average disposable income per capita: OECD countries, 2019

$60,000 - ;
A Richer and more equal H Richer and less equal |
E ! © United States
8 850,000 + 2 Luxembor
© HN -
©
5
3 $40,000 -
$
EN
2
3 he !
3 830,000
2
= Czech Repub]
3 620000 E I
2 .
5 Slovak Repul
® $10,000
3
£
= Poorer and more equal ]

20 25 30 35

Gini coefficient

Notes: Income is equivalisod and PPP adjusted,
Source: OECD, Income Inequality Database,

19. Building a better Britain =

How cities like Bradford can help to end economic
stagnation

Tracy Brabin, Mayor of West Yorkshire
Kersten England, Chair of Bradford Culture Company

Rozina Breen, CEO and Editor-in-Chief of The Bureau of
Investigative Journalism

Hannah Slaughter, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation
Chair: Torsten Bell, Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation