bundelkhandDroughtMonitoringAndAssessment

bundelkhand drought analysis

1. Drought Analysis, Assessment and monitoring of Bundelkhand region Presented by- Rohit Trivedi PhD Scholar– Civil Engineering Roll no. 1610120077 School of Engineering

2. Contents Major challenges in drought research Causes of droughts Objectives of the study Proposed methodology Refrences

3. Major challenges in drought research Insidious character No universal definition Less spatio -temporal anaylsis Climate Change and effects like El-Nino oscillations

4. Causes of droughts ( Ryu et al. 2004)

5. Objectives of the study To investigate major factors and characteristics of drought events occurred in Bundelkhand region for better understanding of their intensity, severity, scale and occurrence. To develop an innovative drought index which could be applicable on analysis of regional droughts on spatio -temporal basis and to compare it with various contemporary developed indices.

6. To develop a precise forecasting method for regional droughts specifically for Bundelkhand region. To study various environmental, social and economic impacts of drought events. To check efficiency of current mitigation measures being used and to suggest better possible mitigation strategies on the basis of above objectives. Objectives of the study

7. Proposed Methodology A detailed statistical and regression analysis of inter relations between various factors such as rainfall pattern, temperature pattern, crop pattern, water supply and demand, water bodies, ground water table, geographical conditions, land use and population change (human as well as livestock) on block scale could be done. As every drought event has unique characteristic, there is no universally accepted definition of drought and index. So, a hybrid drought index on the basis of region characteristics and study of above factors would be developed after comparing various regression based and probabilistic based models.

8. Frequency- or probability-based methods -low flows or low-flow volumes during a specified period are analysed in a manner similar to that of flood peak analysis. (Demerit- Uncertainty due to chaotic behaviour of climate) Regression-based methods -to relate drought parameters with geomorphic and/or climatic factors, crop yield factors, and other relevant factors. (Demerit- Based on historical events and climate change)

9. Proposed Methodology An integrated approach for both hydrological (soil moisture) as well as meteorological (precipitation) could be considered for better and long term (more than two weeks; current methods forecasts up to 2 weeks) forecasting by developing an algorithm that can be used for artificial neural network (artificial intelligence ) Environmental impacts can be studied through analysing crop failure, water level depletion and loss of species and socio-economic effects can be studied through public survey. By figuring out various significant factors of drought events effective mitigation measures can be suggested.

10. Multi step neural network approach

11. Refrences Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1125 McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken , and J. Kleist.(1993).The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, 8th conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 , 179-184. Jain, V.K., Pandey , R.P., Jain, M.K. and Byun , H.R., 2015. Comparison of drought indices for appraisal of drought characteristics in the Ken River Basin.  Weather and Climate Extremes ,  8 , pp.1-11. Palmer, W. C. (1965) Meteorological drought. Paper no. 45, 1-58. Weather Bureau, US Dept of Commerce, Washington DC, USA Sohrabi , M.M., Ryu , J.H., Abatzoglou , J. and Tracy, J., 2015. Development of soil moisture drought index to characterize droughts.  Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ,  20 (11), p.04015025. Thomas, T., Jaiswal , R.K., Nayak , P.C. and Ghosh , N.C., 2015. Comprehensive evaluation of the changing drought characteristics in Bundelkhand region of Central India.  Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics ,  127 (2), pp.163-182. .

12. References Thomas, T., Nayak , P.C. and Ghosh , N.C., 2015. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Characteristics in the Bundelkhand Region of Central India using the Standardized Precipitation Index.  Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ,  20 (11), p.05015004. Yevjevich , V. (1972) Stochaslic Processes in Hydrology Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, Colorado, USA

13. Thank You.