BUSINESS CYCLE (NOTES).pdf

BUSINESS CYCLE

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BUSINESS CYCLE
According to Keynes- “A trade cycle is composed of periods of good trade characterized by rising prices and low
unemployment percentage, altering with periods of bad trade characterized by falling prices and high
unemployment percentages.”
According to Gordon- “Business cycles consist of recurring alternation of expansion and contraction in aggregate
economic activity, the alternating movements in each direction being self-reinforcing and pervading virtually, all
parts of the economy.”
According to Estey- “Cyclical fluctuations are characterized by alternating waves of expansion and contraction.
They do not have a fixed rhythm, but they are cycles in that the phases of contraction and expansion recur
frequently and in fairly similar patterns.”
In other wordsthe rhythmic fluctuations in aggregate economic activities of an economy that it experiences over a
period of time is called as Business Cycle.
PHASES OF BUSINESS CYCLE
The four phases of a business cycle are briefly explained as follows :-
1. Prosperity Phase - When there is an expansion of output, income, employment, prices and profits, there is also a
rise in the standard of living. This period is termed as Prosperity phase.
The features of prosperity are :-
 High level of output and trade.
 High level of effective demand.
 High level of income and employment.
 Rising interest rates.
 Inflation.
 Large expansion of bank credit.
 Overall business optimism.
 A high level of MEC (Marginal efficiency of capital) and investment.
Due to full employment of resources, the level of production is Maximum and there is a rise in GNP (Gross
National Product). Due to a high level of economic activity, it causes a rise in prices and profits. There is an
upswing in the economic activity and economy reaches its Peak. This is also called as a Boom Period.
2. Recession Phase - The turning point from prosperity to depression is termed as Recession Phase. During a
recession period, the economic activities slow down. When demand starts falling, the overproduction and future
investment plans are also given up. There is a steady decline in the output, income, employment, prices and profits.
The businessmen lose confidence and become pessimistic (Negative). It reduces investment. The banks and the
people try to get greater liquidity, so credit also contracts. Expansion of business stops, stock market falls. Orders
are cancelled and people start losing their jobs. The increase in unemployment causes a sharp decline in income
and aggregate demand. Generally, recession lasts for a short period.
3. Depression Phase - When there is a continuous decrease of output, income, employment, prices and profits,
there is a fall in the standard of living and depression sets in.
The features of depression are :-
 Fall in volume of output and trade.
 Fall in income and rise in unemployment.

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 Decline in consumption and demand.
 Fall in interest rate.
 Deflation.
 Contraction of bank credit.
 Overall business pessimism.
 Fall in MEC (Marginal efficiency of capital) and investment.
In depression, there is under-utilization of resources and fall in GNP (Gross National Product). The aggregate
economic activity is at the lowest, causing a decline in prices and profits until the economy reaches its Trough (low
point).
4. Recovery Phase - The turning point from depression to expansion is termed as Recovery or Revival Phase.
During the period of revival or recovery, there are expansions and rise in economic activities. When demand starts
rising, production increases and this causes an increase in investment. There is a steady rise in output, income,
employment, prices and profits. The businessmen gain confidence and become optimistic (Positive). This increases
investments. The stimulation of investment brings about the revival or recovery of the economy. The banks expand
credit, business expansion takes place and stock markets are activated. There is an increase in employment,
production, income and aggregate demand, prices and profits start rising, and business expands. Revival slowly
emerges into prosperity, and the business cycle is repeated.
CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Business Cycles possess the following characteristics-
 Cyclical fluctuations are wave-like movements.
 Fluctuations are recurrent in nature.
 They are non-periodic or irregular. In other words, the peaks and troughs do not occur at regular intervals.
 They occur in such aggregate variables as output, income, employment and prices.
 These variables move at about the same time in the same direction but at different rates.
 The durable goods industries experience relatively wide fluctuations in output and employment but
relatively small fluctuations in prices. On the other hand, nondurable goods industries experience relatively
wide fluctuations in prices but relatively small fluctuations in output and employment.

 Business cycles are not seasonal fluctuations such as upswings in retail trade during Diwali or Christmas.
 They are not secular trends such as long-run growth or decline in economic activity.
 Upswings and downswings are cumulative in their effects.
CAUSES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Samuelson attributes business cycles to external and internal factors which are explained below.
External Factors - The external factors emphasize the causes of business cycles in the fluctuations of something
outside the economic system. Such external factors are sunspots, wars, revolutions, political events, gold
discoveries, growth rate of population, migrations, discoveries and innovations.
These outside factors change the level of national income by affecting either the investment or consumption
component of aggregate demand. For example, a drought that destroys many crops due to sunspots may reduce the
quantity of goods produced in the country and adversely affect both consumption and investment.
Internal Factors - The internal factors relate to “mechanisms within the economic system itself which will give
rise to self-generating business cycles, so that every expansion will breed recession and contraction, and every
contraction will in turn breed revival and expansion, in a quasi-regular, repeating, never-ending chain.”

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Haberler divides the internal factors into monetary and non-monetary which are-
1. Bank Credit - Hawtrey, Friedman and other monetarists regard business cycles as “a purely monetary
phenomenon”. According to Hawtrey, cyclical fluctuations are caused by expansion and contraction of bank credit.
These in, turn, lead to changes in the demand for money on the part of producers and traders. Bank credit is the
principal means of payment. Credit is expanded or reduced by the banks by lowering or raising the rate of interest
or by purchasing and selling of securities to traders. This increases or decreases the supply of money in the
economy. An increase in the money supply brings about prosperity and a decrease in the money supply leads to
depression.
2. Over-Saving or Under Consumption - According to economists like Hobson, Foster and Douglas, business
cycles are caused by over saving or under-consumption. They argue that wide disparities of income and wealth lead
to depression in the country. The rich people are not able to spend their entire income. So they save more and
invest more in producing consumer goods. On the other hand, the poor people have low incomes or wages.
3. Over-Investment - Hayek Spiethoff, Cassel and Robertson find the root cause of business cycles in over-
investment. According to Hayek, it is bank loans which lead to over-investment in capital goods industries relative
to consumer goods industries that ultimately brings depression in the economy.
4. Competition - According to Chapman, the main cause of business cycles is the existence of competition in an
economy which leads to over-production and ultimately to a crisis (depression). Under competitive conditions,
firms produce in anticipation of demand.
5. Psychological Causes - According to Pigou, the alternating waves of “over optimism” and “over pessimism” are
the sole causes of the industrial fluctuations. He traces cyclical fluctuations to the tendency of businessmen to react
excessively to the changing conditions of the economy. It is this tendency that causes alternating periods of over-
production and under-production.
6. Innovations - According to Schumpeter, innovations in the structure of an economy are the source of economic
fluctuations. To him, “the cause of depression is prosperity.” The boom consists in the carrying out of innovations
in the industrial and commercial fields. The cyclical upswing is set in motion when an innovator starts making
investment in his innovation of a new product.
7. Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC) - According to Keynes, the cycle consists primarily of fluctuations in
the rate of investment. And fluctuations in the rate of investment are caused mainly by fluctuations in the MEC.
The MEC depends on the supply price of capital assets and their prospective yield.
TYPES OF TRADE CYCLE

Dynamic forces operating in a capitalist economy create various kinds of economic fluctuations. These fluctuations
can be classified as follows :-


 Short-Time Cycle : This trade cycle occur for a short period of time. It is also known as minor cycles. It
lasts for about 3-4 years.

 Secular Trends : This trade cycle occurs for a long period of time and is known as Long term cycle. It
lasts for about 4-8 years or more. It is also known as major cycle.


 Seasonal Fluctuations : This refers to trade cycles, which take place due to seasonal changes in the
economy. For e.g. failure of monsoon can cause a downtrend in the economy which may be followed by a
good monsoon and up to trend.
 Irregular or Random Fluctuations : These trade cycles are unpredictable and occur during a period of
strikes, war, etc., causing a shock to the economic system.

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 Cyclic Fluctuation : These fluctuations are wave-like changes in economic activity caused by recurring
phases of expansion and contraction. There is an upswing from a trough (low point) to peak and
downswing from the peak to trough caused due to economic changes in demand, or supply or various other
factors.
MEASURES TO CONTROL BUSINESS CYCLES
Various measures have been suggested and put into practice from time to time to control fluctuations in an
economy. They aim at stabilizing economic activity so as to avoid the ill-effects of a boom and a depression. The
following three measures are adopted for this purpose.
1. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy as a method to control business fluctuations is operated by the central bank
of a country. The central bank adopts a number of methods to control the quantity and quality of credit. To control
the expansion of money supply during a boom, it raises its bank rate, sells securities in the open market, raises the
reserve ratio, and adopts a number of selective credit control measures such as raising margin requirements and
regulating consumer credit. Thus the central bank adopts a dear money policy. Borrowings by business and trade
become dearer, difficult and selective. Efforts are made to control excess money supply in the economy.
Limitations of Monetary Policy
But monetary policy is not so effective as to control a boom and a depression. If the boom is due to cost- push
factors, it may not be effective in controlling inflation, aggregate demand, output, income and employment. So far
as depression is concerned, the experience of the Great Depression of 1930’s tells us that when there is pessimism
among businessmen, the success of monetary policy is practically nil.
In such a situation, they do not have any inclination to borrow even when the interest rate is very low. Similarly,
consumers who are faced with reduced incomes and unemployment cut down their consumption expenditure.
Neither the central bank nor the commercial banks are able to induce businessmen and consumers to raise the
aggregate demand. Thus the success of monetary policy to control economic fluctuations is severely limited.
2. Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy alone is not capable of controlling business cycles. It should, therefore, be
supplemented by compensatory fiscal policy. Fiscal measures are highly effective for controlling excessive
government expenditure, personal consumption expenditure, and private and public investment during a boom. On
the other hand, they help in increasing government expenditure, personal consumption expenditure and private and
public investment during a depression.
 Policy during Boom - The following measures are adopted during a boom. During a boom, the
government tries to reduce unnecessary expenditure on non-development activities in order to reduce its
demand for goods and services. This also puts a check on private expenditure which is dependent on the
government demand for goods and services. But it is difficult to cut government expenditure. Moreover, it
is not possible to distinguish between essential and non-essential government expenditure. Therefore, this
measure is supplemented by taxation.

 To cut personal expenditure, the government raises the rates of personal, corporate and commodity taxes.

 The government also follows the policy of having a surplus budget when the government revenues exceed
expenditures. This is done by increasing the tax rates or reduction in government expenditure or both. This
tends to reduce income and aggregate demand through the reverse operation of the multipher.


 Policy during Depression

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 During a depression, the government increases public expenditure, reduces taxes and adopts a budget
deficit policy. These measures tend to raise aggregate demand, output, income, employment and prices. An
increase in public expenditure increases the aggregate demand for goods and services and leads to increase
in income via the multipher. The public expenditure is made on such public works as roads, canals, dams,
parks, schools, hospitals and other construction works.

 They create demand for labour and the products of private construction industries and helps in reviving
them. The government also increases its expenditure on such relief measures as unemployment insurance,
and other social security measures in order to stimulate the demand for consumer goods industries.
Borrowing by the government to finance budget deficits utilizes idle money lying with the banks and
financial institutions for investment purposes.
Conclusion
: The effectiveness of anti-cyclical fiscal policy depends upon proper timing of policy action and the
nature and volume of public works and their planning.
3.Direct Controls - The aim of direct controls is to ensure proper allocation of resources for the purpose of price
stability. They are meant to affect strategic points of the economy. They affect particular consumers and producers.
They are in the form of rationing licensing, price and wage controls, export duties, exchange controls, quotas,
monopoly control, etc.
They are more effective in overcoming bottlenecks and shortages arising from inflationary pressures. Their success
depends on the existence of an efficient and honest administration. Otherwise, they lead to black marketing,
corruption, long queues, speculation, etc. Therefore, they should be resorted to only in emergencies like war, crop
failures and hyper-inflation.
Conclusions: Of the various instruments of stabilizations policy, no single method is sufficient to control cyclical
fluctuations. Therefore, all methods should be used simultaneously. This is because monetary policy is easy to
apply but less effective while fiscal measures and direct controls are difficult to operate but are more effective.
Since cyclical fluctuations are inherent in the capitalist system, they cannot be eliminated completely. Some
fluctuations may be beneficial for economic growth and others may be undesirable. Stabilization policy should,
therefore, control undesirable fluctuations.
We conclude with Keynes, “The right remedy for the trade cycles is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus
keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-
boom.








INFLATION
According to G. Ackley, “Inflation is a persistent and appreciable rise in the general level or average of prices.”

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According to Crowther,"Inflation is a state in which the value of money is failing i.e. the prices are rising."
According to Coulbourn,"Inflation is too much of money chasing too few goods."
Features of Inflation
The characteristics or features of inflation are as follows :-
 Inflation involves a process of the persistent rise in prices. It involves rising trend in price level.
 Inflation is a state of disequilibrium.
 Inflation is scarcity oriented.
 Inflation is dynamic in nature.
 Inflationary price rise is persistent and irreversible.
 Inflation is caused by excess demand in relation to supply of all types of goods and services.
 Inflation is a purely monetary phenomenon.
 Inflation is a post full employment phenomenon.
 Inflation is a long-term process.
INFLATION IN RELATION TO EMPLOYMENT
The Phillips Curve is an economic concept which was developed by economistAlban William Phillips in the year
1958 and shows an integral relationship between unemployment and inflation. Phillips began his quest by
examining the economic data of unemployment rates and inflation in the United Kingdom. He tracked the data over
business cycles, and found wages increased at a slow rate when unemployment was high, and faster when the
unemployment rate dropped. Business cycles are basically economic activity over a lengthy period of time.
Originally, business cycles were thought to be predictable, but they have since proven themselves to be irregular in
the areas of duration, frequency and magnitude. Most business cycles last three to five years, or about 44.8 months.
Phillips’ theory was accepted at first. If a good number of people are looking for work, employers will leave the
pay rates as is, but if fewer people need work, employers are almost forced into offering higher pay in order to
attract employees. Phillips devised the curve on evidence he
collected via observation. He studied the relationship between
the group of unemployed people and wage inflation from 1861 to
1957. His results were reported in 1958. His theory was used a
model for other economists in developed countries, and
universally accepted in the 1960’s.








THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION RATE AND GDP

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When the economy is healthy, there is usually low unemployment and wage increases, as businesses demand
labour to meet the growing economy.
Due to low unemployment and increase in wages, there is an increase in the purchasing power of people. This leads
to an increase in demand for goods and services, which leads to an increase in general price levels.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
The Gross Domestic Product measures the value of economic activity within a country. Strictly defined, GDP is the
sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a period of time.
There are, however, three important distinctions within this seemingly simple definition:
1. GDP is a number that expresses the worth of the output of a country in local currency.
2. GDP tries to capture all final goods and services as long as they are produced within the country, thereby
assuring that the final monetary value of everything that is created in a country is represented in the GDP.
3. GDP is calculated for a specific period of time, usually a year or a quarter of a year.
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Purchases + Net Exports
Alternate Approaches to Calculate GDP
There are three approaches to Calculate GDP
Expenditure Approach : Calculates the final spending on goods and services
Product Approach : Calculates the market value of goods and services produced.
Income Approach : Sums the income received by all producers in the Country

DEFLATION
In the words of Crowther, “Deflation is that state of the economy where the value of money is rising or the prices
are falling.”
In short, deflation is a situation in which falling prices are accompanied by falling levels of employment, output
and income.
EFFECTS OF DEFLATION
(A) Effects on Different Sections of Society:
1. Producers:
Deflation adversely affects the producers:

 During deflation, production costs do not fall as rapidly as the prices of finished goods,
 When the producer buys raw material and other inputs, he pays a higher price, but by the time he reached
the market to sell his finished products, the prices of raw materials will fall because of deflation. Thus the
producer will be forced to sell his products at a lower price.
 The demand for commodities goes on falling due deflation.
2. Traders:

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The traders are also adversely, affected during deflation. When they make purchases, they have to pay higher
prices, but when they sell the products prices fall due to deflationary trend. As a result, the traders are likely to lose.
3. Investors:
Different types of investors are affected differently due to deflation:
 The fixed-income investors (like debenture and bond holders) gain by deflation because incomes remain
constant while the prices fall.
 The variable income investors (like equity holders) will lose during depression, because their incomes fall
with the falling prices.
4. Salaried and Labour Classes:
Wage earners and salaried persons gain during deflation. The reason is that with the fall in prices, the wages and
salaries cannot be reduced; such attempts will be strongly opposed by the trade unions.
5. Consumers:
The consumers generally gain due to falling prices because the purchasing power of their money rises.
Consumers are of two types:
(a) The consumers whose income remains fixed (i.e, salaried persons) will be benefited by deflation.
(b) The consumers whose income falls during deflation (e.g., profit earners) may lose during deflation.
6. Creditors and Debtors:
During deflation, the prices fall and the value of money rises. As a result, the creditors tend to gain and the debtors
tend to lose.

CAUSES OF DEFLATION
Deflation is a situation in which falling prices are accompanied by falling levels of employment, income and
output. Deflation may be due to certain natural causes, or it may be due to a deliberate policy of the government.

The following are the important causes of deflation:
1. Keynes’ Explanation:
Keynes had developed a systematic theory to explain the causes of deflation (or depression).

(i) Deficient Aggregate Demand:
The main reason for deflation is the deficiency of aggregate demand which leads to over-production and
unemployment. Aggregate demand consists of aggregate consumption expenditure and aggregate investment
expenditure.
(ii) Less Investment Expenditure:
Private investment is governed by marginal efficiency of capital (MEC) and rate of interest. Deflation is the result
of decline in investment which is due to (a) low MEC or low profitability of capital and (b) high rate of interest.
(iii) Fall in MEC:
As the process of economic expansion goes on, certain forces come into operation which exerts downward
pressures on MEC.

These forces are:

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(a) During the process of expansion costs of production start rising on account of the increasing scarcities of
materials and equipment. Wage cost also rises because of scarcity of labour. Rising costs have the depressing effect
on MEC.
(b) Increasing abundance of output resulting from industrial expansion leads to lessen the returns below
expectations which also depress MEC.
(iv) Less Consumption:
The basic cause of deflation or depression lies in Keynes’ concept of consumption function or his psychological
law of consumption. According to this law, the consumers do not spend the whole of the increment of their
incomes on consumer goods.
(v) Rise in Rate of Interest:
The fall in the MEC is followed by a rise in demand for money or rise in liquidity preference (i.e., the tendency of
the people to keep money in cash form). No one likes to purchase goods or securities when the prices are falling.
Given the supply of money, increase in liquidity preference results in the rise in the rate of interest which also
reduces investment.
To sum up, according to Keynes, rising rate of interest, declining MEC, falling tendency of consumption- all these
factors lead to reduce aggregate demand which ultimately result in deflationary conditions in the economy.
2. Contractionary Monetary Policy:
When the government adopts a contractionary monetary policy, it makes the availability of credit more costly by
raising the rate of interest and reducing the supply of money. This results in fall in prices. Various contractionary
monetary measures are- raising the bank rate, sale of government securities, raising the cash reserve ratio, reducing
the currency, etc.
3. Reduction in Government Expenditure:
If the government decides to reduce public expenditure, it will reduce national income and employment multiple
times (through the adverse working of multiplier). This will reduce aggregate demand, discourage investment and
affect the economic activity of the economy adversely.
4. Heavy Taxes:
Heavy taxes imposed by the government reduce the disposable income with the people. This leads to the decline in
both consumption and investment expenditure and results in deflationary conditions.
5. Increasing Economic Inequalities:
Increasing inequalities of income and wealth make the rich more rich and the poor more poor. Since the marginal
propensity to consume (MPC) of the rich is less than that of the poor, growing inequalities of income will reduce
consumption expenditure and will lead to deflationary situation.
6. Public Borrowing:
When the government borrows from the public, it results in the transfer of money from the public to the
government. This reduces aggregate demand and brings deflation in the economy.

7. Psychological Factors:
Some economists feel that deflation and depression are the result of waves of optimism and pessimism. During the
optimistic conditions of boom, they make over- investment. As a consequence, they fail to find buyers for their
products, suffer losses, grow pessimistic about the prospects of business and curtail their productive activities.
Thus, the discovery of error of optimism gives birth to the opposite error of pessimism.

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8. Other Factors:
Some other non-economic and non-monetary factors, such as, wars, earth quakes, strikes, crop failures, etc. may
also cause deflationary conditions.

MEASURES TO CONTROL DEFLATION
1. Reduction in Taxation:
The government should reduce the number and burden of various taxes levied on commodities. This will increase
the purchasing power of the people. As a result, the demand for goods and services will increase. Moreover,
sufficient tax relief should be given to businessmen to encourage investment.
2. Redistribution of Income:
Marginal propensity to consume can be raised by a redistribution of income and wealth from the rich to the poor.
Since the marginal propensity to consume of the poor is high and that of the rich is low, such a measure will help
increasing the aggregate demand in the economy.
3. Repayment of Public Debt:
During deflation period, the government can repay the old public debts. This will increase the purchasing power of
the people and push up effective demand.
4. Subsidies:
The government should give subsidies to induce the businessmen to increase investment.
5. Public Works Programme:
The government should also directly undertake public works programme and thus increase expenditure in public
sector. Care should, however, be taken that the public works policy of the government does not adversely affect
investment in the private sector; it should supplement, and not supplant, private investment.

6. Deficit Financing:
In order to have significant expansionary effects, the government’s public works schemes should be financed by
the method of deficit financing, i.e., by printing new money. The government should adopt a budgetary deficit
(excess of government expenditure over its revenue) and cover this deficit through deficit financing.
Deficit financing makes available to the government sufficient resources for its developmental programmes without
adversely affecting investment in the private sector.
7. Reduction in Interest Rate:
By adopting a cheap money policy, the monetary authority of a country reduces the interest rate which stimulates
investment and thereby expands economic activity in the economy.
8. Credit Expansion:
The central bank and the commercial banks should adopt a policy of credit expansion to promote business and
industry in the country. Bank credit should be made easily available to the entrepreneurs for productive purposes.
9. Foreign Trade Policy:
To control deflation, the government should adopt such a foreign trade policy that, on the one hand, increases
exports, and, on the other hand, reduces imports. This kind of policy will go a long way in solving the problem of
overproduction, and help overcoming deflation.
10. Regulation of Production:

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Production in the economy should be regulated in such a way that the problem of over-production does not arise.
Attempts should be made to adjust production with the existing demand to avoid over-production.