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2. 2 2 International Flow of Funds Explain the key components of the balance of payments, Explain the growth in international trade activity over time, Explain how international trade flows are influenced by economic factors and other factors, Explain how international capital flows are influenced by country characteristics, Introduce the agencies that facilitate the international flow of funds. 2 Chapter Objectives

3. 3 Balance of Payments Definition: Summary of transactions between domestic and foreign residents for a specific country over a specified period of time.

4. 4 Balance of Payments Components of the Balance of Payments Statement: Current Account : summary of flow of funds due to purchases of goods or services or the provision of income on financial assets. A current account deficit suggests a greater outflow of funds from the specified country for its current transactions. The current account is commonly used to assess the balance of trade , which is simply the difference between merchandise exports and merchandise imports.

5. 5 Current Account Payments for merchandise and services Merchandise exports and imports represent tangible products that are transported between countries. Service exports and imports represent tourism and other services. The difference between total exports and imports is referred to as the balance of trade. Factor income payments Represents income (interest and dividend payments) received by investors on foreign investments in financial assets (securities). Transfer payments Represent aid, grants, and gifts from one country to another.

6. 6 Exhibit 2.1 Examples of Current Account Transactions

7. 7 Exhibit 2.2 Summary of Current Account in the year 2010 (in billions of $) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/current-account http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/net-capital-account-bop-us-dollar-wb-data.html

8. 8 Capital and Financial Accounts Capital Account : summary of flow of funds resulting from the sale of assets between one specified country and all other countries over a specified period of time. Financial Account: Direct foreign investment Investments in fixed assets in foreign countries Portfolio investment Transactions involving long term financial assets (such as stocks and bonds) between countries that do not affect the transfer of control. Other capital investment Transactions involving short-term financial assets (such as money market securities) between countries. Errors and omissions Measurement errors can occur when attempting to measure the value of funds transferred into or out of a country.

9. 9 Balance of Payments – Pakistan

10. 10 Growth in International Trade Events That Increased Trade Volume Impact of Outsourcing Trade Volume among Countries

11. 11 Events That Increased Trade Volume Removal of the Berlin Wall: Led to reductions in trade barriers in Eastern Europe. Single European Act of 1987: Improved access to supplies from firms in other European countries. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): Allowed U.S. firms to penetrate product and labor markets that previously had not been accessible. General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT): Called for the reduction or elimination of trade restrictions in 1993 on specified imported goods over a 10-year period across 117 countries .

12. 12 Events That Increased Trade Volume (cont.) Inception of the Euro: Reduced costs and risks associated with converting one currency to another . Expansion of the European Union: reduced restrictions on trade with Western Europe. Other Trade Agreements: The United States has established trade agreements with many other countries.

13. 13 Impact of Outsourcing on Trade Definition of Outsourcing : The process of subcontracting to a third party in another country to provide supplies or services that were previously produced internally. Impact of outsourcing: Increased international trade activity because MNCs now purchase products or services from another country. Lower cost of operations and job creation in countries with low wages. Criticism of outsourcing: Outsourcing may reduce jobs in the United States.

14. 14 Managerial Decisions About Outsourcing Managers of a U.S.–based MNC may argue that they create jobs for U.S. workers. Shareholders may suggest that the managers are not maximizing the MNC’s value as a result of their commitment to creating U.S. jobs. Managers should consider the potential savings that could occur as a result of outsourcing. Managers must also consider the possible bad publicity or bad morale that could occur among the U.S. workers.

15. 15 Trade Volume Among Countries The annual international trade volume of the United States is between 10 and 20 percent of its annual GDP. Trade volume between the United States and Other Countries: About 20 percent of all U.S. exports are to Canada, while 13 percent are to Mexico. Canada, China, Mexico, and Japan are the key exporters to the United States. Together, they are responsible for more than half of the value of all U.S. imports.

16. 16 Exhibit 2.3 Distributions of U.S. Exports Across Countries (in billions of $)

17. 17 Exhibit 2.4 2008 Distribution of U.S. Exports and Imports 17

18. 18 Distributions of Pakistan Exports Across Countries

19. 19 Distributions of Pakistan Exports Across Countries

20. 20 Trend in U.S. Balance of Trade The U.S. balance of trade deficit increased substantially from 1997 until 2008. In the 2008–2009 period, U.S. economic conditions weakened and the U.S. demand for foreign products and services decreased. In recent years, the U.S. annual balance of trade deficit with China has exceeded $200 billion. Any country’s balance of trade can change substantially over time.

21. 21 Exhibit 2.5 U.S. Balance of Trade Over Time (Quarterly)

22. 22 Factors Affecting International Trade Flows Cost of Labor : Firms in countries where labor costs are low commonly have an advantage when competing globally, especially in labor intensive industries Inflation : Current account decreases if inflation increases relative to trade partners. National Income : Current account decreases if national income increases relative to other countries.

23. 23 Factors Affecting International Trade Flows (cont.) Government Policies : can increase imports through: Restrictions on imports Subsidies for exporters Lack of Restriction on piracy Environmental restrictions Labor laws Tax breaks g. Country security laws Exchange Rates : current account decreases if currency appreciates relative to other currencies.

24. 24 Impact of Government Policies Restrictions on Imports : Taxes (tariffs) on imported goods increase prices and limit consumption. Quotas limit the volume of imports. Subsidies for Exporters : Government subsidies help firms produce at a lower cost than their global competitors. Restrictions on Piracy : A government can affect international trade flows by its lack of restrictions on piracy. Environmental Restrictions : Environmental restrictions impose higher costs on local firms, placing them at a global disadvantage compared to firms in other countries that are not subject to the same restrictions.

25. 25 Impact of Government Policies (cont.) Labor Laws : countries with more restrictive laws will incur higher expenses for labor, other factors being equal. Business Laws : Firms in countries with more restrictive bribery laws may not be able to compete globally in some situations. Tax Breaks : Though not necessarily a subsidy, but still a form of government financial support that might benefit many firms that export products. Country Security Laws : Governments may impose certain restrictions when national security is a concern, which can affect on trade.

26. 26 Impact of Exchange Rates How exchange rates may correct a balance of trade deficit: When a home currency is exchanged for a foreign currency to buy foreign goods, then the home currency faces downward pressure, leading to increased foreign demand for the country’s products. Why exchange rates may not correct a balance of trade deficit: Exchange rates will not automatically correct any international trade balances when other forces are at work.

27. 27 Limitations of a Weak Home Currency Solution Competition : foreign companies may lower their prices to remain competitive. Impact of other currencies : a country that has balance of trade deficit with many countries is not likely to solve all deficits simultaneously. Prearranged international trade transactions : international transactions cannot be adjusted immediately. The lag is estimated to be 18 months or longer, leading to a J-curve effect. Intracompany trade : Many firms purchase products that are produced by their subsidiaries. These transactions are not necessarily affected by currency fluctuations.

28. 28 Exhibit 2.6 J-Curve Effect 28

29. 29 Friction Regarding Exchange Rates All governments cannot weaken their home currencies simultaneously. Actions by one government to weaken its currency causes another country’s currency to strengthen. Government attempts to influence exchange rates can lead to international disputes.

30. 30 Factors Affecting International Capital Flows Factors Affecting DFI Factors Affecting Portfolio Investment

31. 31 Factors Affecting Direct Foreign Investing (DFI) Changes in Restrictions New opportunities have arisen from the removal of government barriers. Privatization DFI is stimulated by new business opportunities associated with privatization. Managers of privately owned businesses are motivated to ensure profitability, further stimulating DFI.

32. 32 Factors Affecting Direct Foreign Investing (DFI) (Cont.) Potential Economic Growth Countries with greater potential for economic growth are more likely to attract DFI. Tax Rates Countries that impose relatively low tax rates on corporate earnings are more likely to attract DFI. Exchange Rates Firms typically prefer to pursue DFI in countries where the local currency is expected to strengthen against their own.

33. 33 Factors Affecting International Portfolio Investment Tax Rate on Interest or Dividends Investors normally prefer to invest in a country where taxes are relatively low. Interest Rates Money tends to flow to countries with high interest rates, as long as the local currencies are not expected to weaken. Exchange Rates Investors are attracted to a currency that is expected to strengthen.

34. 34 Impact of International Capital Flows The United States relies heavily on foreign investment in: U.S. manufacturing plants, offices, and other buildings. Debt securities issued by U.S. firms. U.S. Treasury debt securities Foreign investors are especially attracted to the U.S. financial markets when the interest rate in their home country is substantially lower than that in the United States.

35. 35 Exhibit 2.7 Impact of the International Flow of Funds on U.S. Interest Rates and Business Investment in the United States 35

36. 36 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Major Objectives of the IMF Established in 1946 – 183 members promote cooperation among countries on international monetary issues, promote stability in exchange rates provide temporary funds to member countries attempting to correct imbalances of international payments promote free mobility of capital funds across countries promote free trade. It is clear from these objectives that the IMF’s goals encourage increased internationalization of business Its compensatory financing facility (CFF) attempts to reduce the impact of export instability on countries. Financing is measured in special drawing rights (SDRs) International Monetary Fund (IMF)

37. 37 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows International Monetary Fund (IMF) The value of the SDR was initially defined as equivalent to 0.888671 grams of fine gold—which, at the time, was also equivalent to 1 US$ After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies. The basket composition is reviewed every five years by the Executive Board -- 2015 The weights (%) assigned to the currencies in the SDR basket are as follows: Currency 2001 2016 U.S. dollar 45 41.73 Euro 29 30.93 Japanese yen 15 8.33 Pound sterling 11 8.09 China Renminbi* 10.92 *was included from 01 Oct 2016

38. 38 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Established in 1944 – 183 members Major Objective- Make loans to countries to enhance economic development. Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) are intended to enhance a country’s long-term economic growth. Funds are distributed through co-financing agreements : Official aid agencies Export credit agencies Commercial banks Five organizations - IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA and ICSID World Bank Group

39. 39 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows 1. IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Better known as the World Bank, the IBRD provides loans and development assistance to middle-income countries and creditworthy poorer countries. In particular, its structural adjustment loans are intended to enhance a country’s long-term economic growth. The IBRD is not a profit-maximizing organization. Nevertheless, it has earned a net income every year since 1948. It may spread its funds by entering into co-financing agreements with official aid agencies, export credit agencies, as well as commercial banks. World Bank Group

40. 40 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows 2. IDA: International Development Association IDA was set up in 1960 as an agency that lends to the very poor developing nations on highly concessional terms only to those countries that lack the financial ability to borrow from IBRD. IBRD and IDA are run on the same lines, sharing the same staff, headquarters and project evaluation standards. 3. IFC: International Finance Corporation The IFC was set up in 1956 to promote sustainable private sector investment in developing countries, by financing private sector projects; helping to mobilize financing in the international financial markets; and providing advice and technical assistance to businesses and governments. World Bank Group

41. 41 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows 4. MIGA: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency The MIGA was created in 1988 to promote FDI in emerging economies, by offering political risk insurance to investors and lenders; and helping developing countries attract and retain private investment. 5. ICSID: International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes The ICSID was created in 1966 to facilitate the settlement of investment disputes between governments and foreign investors, thereby helping to promote increased flows of international investment. World Bank Group

42. http://www.worldbank.org http://www.worldbank.org/ibrd http://www.worldbank.org/ida http://www.ifc.org http://www.miga.org http://www.worldbank.org/icsid Online Application

43. 43 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Created in 1995, the WTO is the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). It deals with the global rules of trade between nations to ensure that trade flows smoothly, predictably and freely. At the heart of the WTO's multilateral trading system are its trade agreements. Major Objective - Provide a forum for multilateral trade negotiations and to settle trade disputes related to the GATT accord. Member countries are given voting rights that are used to make judgments about trade disputes and other issues. World Trade Organization (WTO)

44. 44 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Its functions include: administering WTO trade agreements; serving as a forum for trade negotiations; handling trade disputes; monitoring national trading policies; providing technical assistance and training for developing countries; and cooperating with other international groups. World Trade Organization (WTO)

45. 45 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Established in 1930 Major Objectives - facilitate cooperation among countries with regard to international transactions in pursuit of monetary and financial stability . Provides assistance to countries experiencing a financial crisis. Sometimes referred to as the “central banks’ central bank” or the “lender of last resort.” Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

46. 46 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Major Objective - Facilitate governance in governments and corporations of countries with market economics. It has 30 member countries and has relationships with numerous countries. Promotes international country relationships that lead to globalization. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

47. 47 Agencies that Facilitate International Flows Inter-American Development Bank : focusing on the needs of Latin America Asian Development Bank : established to enhance social and economic development in Asia African Development Bank : focusing on development in African countries European Bank for Reconstruction and Development : created in 1990 to help the Eastern European countries adjust from communism to capitalism. Islamic Development Bank Regional Development Agencies

48. Impact of International Trade on an MNC’s Value E (CF j,t ) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received by the U.S. parent at the end of period t E (ER j,t ) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can be converted to dollars at the end of period t k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent Exchange Rate Movements Inflation in Foreign Countries National Income in Foreign Countries Trade Agreements

49. 49 SUMMARY The key components of the balance of payments are the current account and the capital account. Current account - broad measure of the country’s international trade balance. Capital account - measure of the country’s long-term and short-term capital investments. International trade activity has grown over time. Outsourcing, subcontracting with a third party in a foreign country for supplies or services they previously produced themselves, has increased. Thus increasing international trade activity. A country’s international trade flows are affected by inflation, national income, government restrictions, and exchange rates.

50. 50 SUMMARY (Cont.) A country’s international capital flows are affected by any factors that influence direct foreign investment or portfolio investment. Direct foreign investment tends to occur in those countries that have no restrictions and much potential for economic growth. Portfolio investment tends to occur in those countries where taxes are not excessive, where interest rates are high, and where the local currencies are not expected to weaken. Several agencies facilitate the international flow of funds by promoting international trade and finance, providing loans to enhance global economic development, settling trade disputes between countries, and promoting global business relationships between countries.