CHAPTER 3 Review: CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY; A COHERENT CHINESE DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY?

CHAPTER 3 Review: CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY; A COHERENT CHINESE DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY?

We look at the history and developments in Chinese Foreign Policy, the factors, and issues.

-Slides by Hassan Jawad Rana

1. ROBERT SUTTERROBERT SUTTER
CHAPTER 3: CHAPTER 3: CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGYCHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY
A COHERENT CHINESE DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY?A COHERENT CHINESE DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY?
XI JINPING’S VISION OFXI JINPING’S VISION OF
CHINESECHINESE
FOREIGNFOREIGN
POLICYPOLICY

2. Foundations of China's
Grand Strategy
CHAPTERCHAPTER
HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS
Xi Jinping's Foreign
Policy Vision
Constraints on
China's Rise
Outlook

3. Strategic Environment
Natural Resources
(tangible & intangible)
Leadership Ambitions &
Effectiveness
Strategic Cultural Background
FOUNDATIONS OF CHINA’SFOUNDATIONS OF CHINA’S
GRAND STRATEGYGRAND STRATEGY

4. HISTORICAL LEADERSHIP AND STRATEGY CHANGESHISTORICAL LEADERSHIP AND STRATEGY CHANGES
Mao Zedong led Chinese foreign
policy until 1976, exhibiting
inconsistencies, especially in
relations with the Soviet Union
and the U.S.
Mao Zedong
Post-Mao, leaders like Deng Xiaoping
were perceived, both domestically and
internationally, as adhering to a
coherent strategy centered on peace
and development, expected to persist
into the 21st century.
Deng Xiaoping
American and other foreign
critics of China's rise suggest a
covert strategy aimed at
regional and possibly global
dominance, a claim officially
denied by Beijing.
Int’l Perspectives

5. Controlled Narratives
DIPLOMATICDIPLOMATIC
CONSISTENCYCONSISTENCY
Morally Righteous
Principles
Adhering to
Principles
Infallible in Foreign
Affairs
·This self-perceived moral righteousness complicates the
effective management of international disputes and
obstructs the pursuit of broader Chinese ambitions.
Impact of
Perceived Righteousness

6. XI JINPING’S FOREIGNXI JINPING’S FOREIGN
POLICY VISIONPOLICY VISION

7. XI JINPING 习近平XI JINPING 习近平
Paramount Leader of China since 2012
President of the People's Republic of
China (PRC) since 2013.
General secretary of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP)
Chairman of the Central Military
Commission (CMC)
Belongs to the fifth generation of
Chinese leadership.

8. XI JINPING’S FOREIGN POLICYXI JINPING’S FOREIGN POLICY
“China Dream” Vision
Increasing influence in Asia/Globally
Goals
Approval from Chinese Elite / populace
Support for Xi Jinping leadership
Challenges to the Vision
Portrayal vs Realities

9. “CHINA DREAM”“CHINA DREAM”
Xi Jinping's vision of "national
rejuvenation" arises from a
history of national struggle and
foreign exploitation.
National Rejuvination
The goal is to establish a unified and
powerful China, leading Asia and
recognized as a great global power.
Departure from Previous Policies
Xi has moved away from the
restrained foreign policies of
predecessors. Xi's administration has
abandoned gestures aimed at
reassuring the US and neighbors of
China's peaceful rise.
Unified & Powerful China

10. XI’S FP KEY ASPECTSXI’S FP KEY ASPECTS
US & International Response
Obama slow to react
Irresolute US Approach
China not priority in 2016
Elections
Sanctioned Russia
Economic Initiatives
Internal Policies
Military & Economic Coercion
Military Expansion
Russia Cooperation
Economic Strategies

11. NEW ELEMENTS IN XI’SNEW ELEMENTS IN XI’S FP VISIONFP VISION
“Community with a
Shared Future”
International Responsibilities
UN, Peacekeeping, & Aid
Paris Agreement
Economic Globalization
Narrative of Historically Peaceful China
“Tianxia”all under heaven
Self-portrayed Righteousness
New Role in Global
Leadershiop
Cooperation & Peace
Challenge US led Order
“Win-win” Development
Diplomatic Inclusiveness
Oppose Western HR emphasis
Manipulation of
Historical Interpretation

12. CONSTRAINTS ONCONSTRAINTS ON
CHINA’S RISECHINA’S RISE

13. Reform
Challenges
CHALLENGES TO ONE-PARTY RULECHALLENGES TO ONE-PARTY RULE
Complex Domestic
Issues
Maintaining Control
Economic Dependence Leadership Legitimacy Income Inequality
Corruption Social Unrest
Environmental Impact
Reliance on Existing
World Order
Impact on International
Engagement
Domestic
Preoccupation

14. INTERDEPENDENCEINTERDEPENDENCE
US-China Relations during the
Pandemic
Negativity towards China
Monopoly of Medicine
Election Year
Impact of Economic
Confrontation
Phase I Trade Agreement
Overshadowed by Covid 19
Propaganda Campaign
Economic Dependence on USA
Collaborations:
North Korea
Climate Change
Anti-terrorism
Nonproliferation
Cybersecurity Issues
WITH USAWITH USA

15. INSECURITY IN ASIAINSECURITY IN ASIA
Future Uncertainties
Regional Relationships
Fluctuating Diplomatic
Postures
Focus on Nearby Asian
Countries
Historical Context and
Mixed Results
USA Policy Shifts

16. Belt & Road Initiative
GAPS & SHORTCOMINGSGAPS & SHORTCOMINGS
IN ECONOMICIN ECONOMIC
POLICIESPOLICIES
Economic & Strategic
Goals
International Perception
& Challenges
Criticisms & Limitations
“Going out” Policy
Recent Shifts
Domestic & Global Benefits
Strategic Advantages
Global Leadership Image
Economic Influence
Investment Reality
Project Delivery
International Opposition

17. THE US POSITIONTHE US POSITION
IN ASIA & WORLDIN ASIA & WORLD

18. HISTORICAL CONTEXTHISTORICAL CONTEXT
Comparison of Influence
US-China Relations
Recent US Leadership
Policy Shifts
Bipartisan Support for Toughness
Consequences for China
Regional Impact
Increased US Scrutiny
China Strategy uder Pressure
Changes in US Policy
Uncertainty and Adaptation
Looking Forward

19. Overall Position
Robust & Multifaceted
Connections
Counterbalance
US Diplomatic and
Military Strategies
Bush & Obama
Trump Disruption
Strategic Contingency
Planning:
Balancing China Rise
Quad Cooperation
US Inflience on Asian Security
Security Guarantees
Economic Interdependence
Non-Government &
Cultrual Ties
Cultural & Social
Exchange
Immigration Impact
ENDURING US STRENGTHSENDURING US STRENGTHS
IN ASIA-PACIFICIN ASIA-PACIFIC

20. Growing Criticism
AMERICAN HARDENINGAMERICAN HARDENING
AGAINST CHINAAGAINST CHINA
Security and Espionage
Concerns
Military & Economic
Influence
Diplomatic Double Dealing
Bipartisan Disapproval
Economic Focus
Government Warnings
Influence Operations
Hybrid Warfare
Belt & Road Initiative BRI
South China Sea Strategy
China-Russia Cooperation

21. OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK

22. Trade War and
Economic Growth
OUTLOOKOUTLOOK
Miscalculation of US
Resolve
Commitment to China
Dream
Sustaining the Image Impact of Covid 19 Internal Criticism
against aggressive
policies
Global Opposition Honk Kong and Taiwan
Adjustments in
Regional Policy
Future Adjustments to
FP
Strengthening Alliances
Navigating South Asian
Dynamics

23. 谢谢你谢谢你
Thank youThank you
Xiè xiè nínXiè xiè nín
Naila Altaf Kiyani
Tariq Rahim
Hassan Jawad Rana