Climate Change and Disaster Management
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Mar 14, 2011
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Slide Content
Climate Change Climate Change
and Disaster Management and Disaster Management
Climate Change Climate Change
and Disaster Management and Disaster Management
Prof. David Alexander Prof. David Alexander Global Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos Davos Prof. David Alexander Prof. David Alexander Global Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos Davos
and Disaster Management and Disaster Management
Climate Change Climate Change
and Disaster Management and Disaster Management
Prof. David Alexander Prof. David Alexander Global Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos Davos Prof. David Alexander Prof. David Alexander Global Risk Forum Global Risk Forum -- Davos Davos
Climate change effects Climate change effects Climate change effects Climate change effects
••major population increases at coasts major population increases at coasts
with with
rising sea level rising sea level
and and
land loss land loss
••major population increases at coasts major population increases at coasts
with with
rising sea level rising sea level
and and
land loss land loss
••more extreme physical forces lead more extreme physical forces lead
to to
more frequent and intense more frequent and intense
floods, floods,
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
••more extreme physical forces lead more extreme physical forces lead
to to
more frequent and intense more frequent and intense
floods, floods,
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... Anticipated climate change effects: Anticipated climate change effects:-- Anticipated climate change effects: Anticipated climate change effects:-- hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
••major changes in major changes in
food chain food chain
::
crop production, crop production, soil erosion, etc. soil erosion, etc.
••major changes in major changes in
food chain food chain
::
crop production, crop production, soil erosion, etc. soil erosion, etc.
••
disease reservoirs disease reservoirs
change geographically change geographically
••
disease reservoirs disease reservoirs
change geographically change geographically
••less available less available
coastal land coastal land
..
••less available less available
coastal land coastal land
..
with with
rising sea level rising sea level
and and
land loss land loss
••major population increases at coasts major population increases at coasts
with with
rising sea level rising sea level
and and
land loss land loss
••more extreme physical forces lead more extreme physical forces lead
to to
more frequent and intense more frequent and intense
floods, floods,
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
••more extreme physical forces lead more extreme physical forces lead
to to
more frequent and intense more frequent and intense
floods, floods,
hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... Anticipated climate change effects: Anticipated climate change effects:-- Anticipated climate change effects: Anticipated climate change effects:-- hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes... hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...
••major changes in major changes in
food chain food chain
::
crop production, crop production, soil erosion, etc. soil erosion, etc.
••major changes in major changes in
food chain food chain
::
crop production, crop production, soil erosion, etc. soil erosion, etc.
••
disease reservoirs disease reservoirs
change geographically change geographically
••
disease reservoirs disease reservoirs
change geographically change geographically
••less available less available
coastal land coastal land
..
••less available less available
coastal land coastal land
..
Wind speed and hurricane damage are
non-linearly related
: small increases in wind
speed can lead to huge increases in damage
non-linearly related
: small increases in wind
speed can lead to huge increases in damage
Magnitude
Frequency
What does the old magnitude-frequency
rule mean in real-life situations?
Magnitude
Frequency
Logarithm of
return period
Magnitude
Frequency
What does the old magnitude-frequency
rule mean in real-life situations?
Magnitude
Frequency
Logarithm of
return period
Magnitude
RISK
Risk as product
Vertical axis scales:
: probability of occurrence
: potential damage
: value of probable costs and losses
Falling hazard
with diminishing
probability of
occurrence
HAZARD
Rising vulnerability with increasing
seriousness of
potential
consequences
VULNERABILITY
Total annual
predicted
costs and losses
of hazard and
vulnerability
Severity
Vertical axis scales:
Hazard: probability of occurrence
Vulnerability: potential damage
Risk: value of probable costs and losses
Fat-tailed
distribution
Risk as product
Vertical axis scales:
: probability of occurrence
: potential damage
: value of probable costs and losses
Falling hazard
with diminishing
probability of
occurrence
HAZARD
Rising vulnerability with increasing
seriousness of
potential
consequences
VULNERABILITY
Total annual
predicted
costs and losses
of hazard and
vulnerability
Severity
Vertical axis scales:
Hazard: probability of occurrence
Vulnerability: potential damage
Risk: value of probable costs and losses
Fat-tailed
distribution
HAZARD HAZARD HAZARD
FREQUENCY FREQUENCY
MAGNITUDE MAGNITUDEVULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY
RISK RISK
HAZARD HAZARD
RISK RISK
RISK RISK
HAZARD HAZARD
Uniformitatian
viewpoint
Uniformitatian
viewpoint
Catastrophist
viewpoint
Catastrophist
viewpoint
FREQUENCY FREQUENCY
MAGNITUDE MAGNITUDEVULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY
RISK RISK
HAZARD HAZARD
RISK RISK
RISK RISK
HAZARD HAZARD
Uniformitatian
viewpoint
Uniformitatian
viewpoint
Catastrophist
viewpoint
Catastrophist
viewpoint
Hazard or risk
amplified
by lack of
mitigation
RISK (R) OR
FREQUENCY OF HAZARD
Arbitrarily defined
disaster threshold
Frequency /
impact level
Hazard or risk
mitigated
VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL
RISK (R) OR
FREQUENCY OF HAZARD
Arbitrarily defined
disaster threshold
amplified
by lack of
mitigation
RISK (R) OR
FREQUENCY OF HAZARD
Arbitrarily defined
disaster threshold
Frequency /
impact level
Hazard or risk
mitigated
VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL
RISK (R) OR
FREQUENCY OF HAZARD
Arbitrarily defined
disaster threshold
World Vulnerability World Vulnerability
to Disasters to Disasters
World Vulnerability World Vulnerability
to Disasters to Disasters
to Disasters to Disasters
World Vulnerability World Vulnerability
to Disasters to Disasters
Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon
Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon Courtesy of Dr Terry Cannon
Imbalances Imbalances Imbalances Imbalances
Land area Land area Land area
Poverty Poverty Poverty
Wealth Wealth Wealth
Population Population Population
Land area Land area Land area
Poverty Poverty Poverty
Wealth Wealth Wealth
Population Population Population
Priorities? Priorities? Priorities? Priorities?
Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk
Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk Source: news.bbc.co.uk
Katrina: Katrina: an emergency an emergency
management management
ddêêbacle bacle
Katrina: Katrina: an emergency an emergency
management management
ddêêbacle bacle
management management
ddêêbacle bacle
Katrina: Katrina: an emergency an emergency
management management
ddêêbacle bacle
HURRICANE KATRINA HURRICANE KATRINA
A balance sheet computed with hindsight A balance sheet computed with hindsight
::--
••impact scenarios ignored impact scenarios ignored
••forecasts shrugged off forecasts shrugged off
••wind loading factors not taken into wind loading factors not taken into
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
HURRICANE KATRINA HURRICANE KATRINA
A balance sheet computed with hindsight A balance sheet computed with hindsight
::--
••impact scenarios ignored impact scenarios ignored
••forecasts shrugged off forecasts shrugged off
••wind loading factors not taken into wind loading factors not taken into
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
••inadequate emergency plan inadequate emergency plan
••inadequate evacuation inadequate evacuation
planning and management planning and management
••slow and inefficient Federal response slow and inefficient Federal response
••Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented
..
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
••inadequate emergency plan inadequate emergency plan
••inadequate evacuation inadequate evacuation
planning and management planning and management
••slow and inefficient Federal response slow and inefficient Federal response
••Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented
..
A balance sheet computed with hindsight A balance sheet computed with hindsight
::--
••impact scenarios ignored impact scenarios ignored
••forecasts shrugged off forecasts shrugged off
••wind loading factors not taken into wind loading factors not taken into
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
HURRICANE KATRINA HURRICANE KATRINA
A balance sheet computed with hindsight A balance sheet computed with hindsight
::--
••impact scenarios ignored impact scenarios ignored
••forecasts shrugged off forecasts shrugged off
••wind loading factors not taken into wind loading factors not taken into
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
••inadequate emergency plan inadequate emergency plan
••inadequate evacuation inadequate evacuation
planning and management planning and management
••slow and inefficient Federal response slow and inefficient Federal response
••Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented
..
account sufficiently in structural design account sufficiently in structural design
••
reliance on fallible structural protection reliance on fallible structural protection
••inadequate emergency plan inadequate emergency plan
••inadequate evacuation inadequate evacuation
planning and management planning and management
••slow and inefficient Federal response slow and inefficient Federal response
••Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented
..
A "classquake" A "classquake" A "classquake" A "classquake"
Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh
Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh
Flood level Flood level
Normal river level Normal river level Normal river level Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining
,
exporting
and
reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining
,
exporting
and
reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies
in Bangladesh
Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh
Flood level Flood level
Normal river level Normal river level Normal river level Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining
,
exporting
and
reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining
,
exporting
and
reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies
Disaster risk and poverty Disaster risk and poverty
•
Intensive risk:
high concentration
of mortality and disaster losses
•
Intensive risk:
high concentration
of mortality and disaster losses
•
Extensive risk:
geographic dispersal
of population to low-intensity risk
•
Extensive risk:
geographic dispersal
of population to low-intensity risk
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
Disaster risk and other risk:- Disaster risk and other risk:-
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
violence, food insecurity, pollution,
lack of clean water and sanitation
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
violence, food insecurity, pollution,
lack of clean water and sanitation
•
Poverty:
relative and absolute,
leading to marginalisation
•
Poverty:
relative and absolute,
leading to marginalisation
•Poverty and
vulnerability
are
almost (but not quite) synonymous
.
•Poverty and
vulnerability
are
almost (but not quite) synonymous
.
Intensive risk:
high concentration
of mortality and disaster losses
•
Intensive risk:
high concentration
of mortality and disaster losses
•
Extensive risk:
geographic dispersal
of population to low-intensity risk
•
Extensive risk:
geographic dispersal
of population to low-intensity risk
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
Disaster risk and other risk:- Disaster risk and other risk:-
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
violence, food insecurity, pollution,
lack of clean water and sanitation
•
Everyday risk:
crime, political
violence, food insecurity, pollution,
lack of clean water and sanitation
•
Poverty:
relative and absolute,
leading to marginalisation
•
Poverty:
relative and absolute,
leading to marginalisation
•Poverty and
vulnerability
are
almost (but not quite) synonymous
.
•Poverty and
vulnerability
are
almost (but not quite) synonymous
.
A double standard: A double standard:
$$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to
save hedge funds, save hedge funds,
$$100,000,000 to 100,000,000 to
save the victims of Hurricane Mitch save the victims of Hurricane Mitch
A double standard: A double standard:
$$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to
save hedge funds, save hedge funds,
$$100,000,000 to 100,000,000 to
save the victims of Hurricane Mitch save the victims of Hurricane Mitch
$$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to
save hedge funds, save hedge funds,
$$100,000,000 to 100,000,000 to
save the victims of Hurricane Mitch save the victims of Hurricane Mitch
A double standard: A double standard:
$$3,500,000,000 to 3,500,000,000 to
save hedge funds, save hedge funds,
$$100,000,000 to 100,000,000 to
save the victims of Hurricane Mitch save the victims of Hurricane Mitch
In 2005 the rich In 2005 the rich
countries donated countries donated
$4.5 billion to the $4.5 billion to the
countries affected countries affected
by the Indian by the Indian
Ocean tsunami Ocean tsunami
In 2005 the rich In 2005 the rich
countries donated countries donated
$4.5 billion to the $4.5 billion to the
countries affected countries affected
by the Indian by the Indian
Ocean tsunami Ocean tsunami
At the same time, At the same time,
the U.N. was the U.N. was
notnot
able to raise able to raise
$30 million for the $30 million for the
major crisis in Dafur major crisis in Dafur
At the same time, At the same time,
the U.N. was the U.N. was
notnot
able to raise able to raise
$30 million for the $30 million for the
major crisis in Dafur major crisis in Dafur
countries donated countries donated
$4.5 billion to the $4.5 billion to the
countries affected countries affected
by the Indian by the Indian
Ocean tsunami Ocean tsunami
In 2005 the rich In 2005 the rich
countries donated countries donated
$4.5 billion to the $4.5 billion to the
countries affected countries affected
by the Indian by the Indian
Ocean tsunami Ocean tsunami
At the same time, At the same time,
the U.N. was the U.N. was
notnot
able to raise able to raise
$30 million for the $30 million for the
major crisis in Dafur major crisis in Dafur
At the same time, At the same time,
the U.N. was the U.N. was
notnot
able to raise able to raise
$30 million for the $30 million for the
major crisis in Dafur major crisis in Dafur
VulnerabilityTotal Total
: life : life isis
generally generally
precarious precarious
Total Total: life : life isis
generally generally
precarious precarious
Newly Newly generated generated
::
caused caused byby
changes changes inin
circumstances circumstances
Newly Newly
generated generated
::
caused caused byby
changes changes inin
circumstances circumstances
Economic Economic
::
people people lack lack
adequate adequate
occupation occupation
Economic Economic ::
people people lack lack
adequate adequate
occupation occupation
Technological Technological Technological Technological
Vulnerability
Residual Residual
: : caused caused byby
lack lack ofof modernisation modernisation
Residual Residual: : caused caused byby
lack lack ofof modernisation modernisation
Delinquent Delinquent
::
caused caused byby
corruption corruption,,
negligence negligence,,
etc.etc.
Delinquent Delinquent ::
caused caused byby
corruption corruption,,
negligence negligence,,
etc.etc.
Technological Technological technocratic technocratic
::
caused caused byby
the the riskiness riskiness
ofof technology technology
Technological Technological technocratic technocratic
::
caused caused byby
the the riskiness riskiness
ofof technology technology
: life : life isis
generally generally
precarious precarious
Total Total: life : life isis
generally generally
precarious precarious
Newly Newly generated generated
::
caused caused byby
changes changes inin
circumstances circumstances
Newly Newly
generated generated
::
caused caused byby
changes changes inin
circumstances circumstances
Economic Economic
::
people people lack lack
adequate adequate
occupation occupation
Economic Economic ::
people people lack lack
adequate adequate
occupation occupation
Technological Technological Technological Technological
Vulnerability
Residual Residual
: : caused caused byby
lack lack ofof modernisation modernisation
Residual Residual: : caused caused byby
lack lack ofof modernisation modernisation
Delinquent Delinquent
::
caused caused byby
corruption corruption,,
negligence negligence,,
etc.etc.
Delinquent Delinquent ::
caused caused byby
corruption corruption,,
negligence negligence,,
etc.etc.
Technological Technological technocratic technocratic
::
caused caused byby
the the riskiness riskiness
ofof technology technology
Technological Technological technocratic technocratic
::
caused caused byby
the the riskiness riskiness
ofof technology technology
Disaster Management Disaster Management
in a Changing World in a Changing World
Disaster Management Disaster Management
in a Changing World in a Changing World
in a Changing World in a Changing World
Disaster Management Disaster Management
in a Changing World in a Changing World
The components of risk
Physical disaster
Magnitude
Frequency
Duration
Exposition
Location of hazard
Environment
Human
vulnerability
Environment
Resistance
Lifestyle and earnings
Health
Resilience
Adjustments
Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005) After Ian Davis (2005)
Physical disaster
Magnitude
Frequency
Duration
Exposition
Location of hazard
Environment
Human
vulnerability
Environment
Resistance
Lifestyle and earnings
Health
Resilience
Adjustments
Risk reduction activities
Preparations for disaster
After Ian Davis (2005) After Ian Davis (2005)
Hazard Hazard
x x
Vulnerability Vulnerability
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
Vulnerability Vulnerability
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
WASTE WASTE
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
WASTE WASTE
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
x x
Vulnerability Vulnerability
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
Vulnerability Vulnerability
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
WASTE WASTE
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Hazard Hazard
x x
WASTE WASTE
x x
Exposure Exposure
= =
Risk Risk
→→Disaster Disaster
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.
Over the period 1950-2000 the world
saw increases of: •
250% in the number of recorded disasters
•500% in number of disasters with victims •
500% in the number of affected people
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Economic losses in disasters
0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S$ billion
152 bn US$
•
500% in the number of affected people
•1640% in the cost
of insured damage
.
•1500% in the total
cost of disasters
Over the period 1950-2000 the world
saw increases of: •
250% in the number of recorded disasters
•500% in number of disasters with victims •
500% in the number of affected people
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Economic losses in disasters
0
20
40
60
80
100
U.S$ billion
152 bn US$
•
500% in the number of affected people
•1640% in the cost
of insured damage
.
•1500% in the total
cost of disasters
Then (1950s) Now (2011)
Under-reporting of
disasters
More complete
recording
Counting only direct
effects
Quantifying indirect
effects
Smaller population of hazardous places
Larger population, greater densities
hazardous places
greater densities
Less inequality
Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at
risk
Relentless accumulation
of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic
networks
More complex networks
Under-reporting of
disasters
More complete
recording
Counting only direct
effects
Quantifying indirect
effects
Smaller population of hazardous places
Larger population, greater densities
hazardous places
greater densities
Less inequality
Growing inequality and
marginalisation
Less fixed capital at
risk
Relentless accumulation
of fixed capital
Simpler socio-economic
networks
More complex networks
Civil Defence Civil Defence Civil Defence Civil Defence
Civil Protection Civil Protection
Instability Instability
threats threats
Complex Complex
hazards hazards
Evolving Evolving
strategic strategic
situation situation
Evolving Evolving
strategic strategic
situation situation
Large Large
technological technological
hazards hazards
Large Large
technological technological
hazards hazards
'Na'Na--tech' tech'
(hybrid) (hybrid)
'Na'Na--tech' tech'
(hybrid) (hybrid)
Civil Protection Civil Protection
Enhanced Enhanced
natural hazards natural hazards
Natural Natural
hazards hazards
Evolving Evolving
climate climate
change change
Evolving Evolving
climate climate
change change
(hybrid) (hybrid) hazards hazards (hybrid) (hybrid) hazards hazards Major Major
geophysical geophysical
events events
Major Major
geophysical geophysical
events events
Civil Protection Civil Protection
Instability Instability
threats threats
Complex Complex
hazards hazards
Evolving Evolving
strategic strategic
situation situation
Evolving Evolving
strategic strategic
situation situation
Large Large
technological technological
hazards hazards
Large Large
technological technological
hazards hazards
'Na'Na--tech' tech'
(hybrid) (hybrid)
'Na'Na--tech' tech'
(hybrid) (hybrid)
Civil Protection Civil Protection
Enhanced Enhanced
natural hazards natural hazards
Natural Natural
hazards hazards
Evolving Evolving
climate climate
change change
Evolving Evolving
climate climate
change change
(hybrid) (hybrid) hazards hazards (hybrid) (hybrid) hazards hazards Major Major
geophysical geophysical
events events
Major Major
geophysical geophysical
events events
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of states on the part of states
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of states on the part of states
Civil defence
Civil defence
Natural disasters Natural disasters Natural disasters Natural disasters
Civil protection
Civil protection
"Homeland security
"
(civil defence)
"Homeland security"
(civil defence)
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of on the part of
groups of dissidents groups of dissidents
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of on the part of
groups of dissidents groups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies
"
(resilience)
"Civil contingencies"
(resilience)
on the part of states on the part of states
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of states on the part of states
Civil defence
Civil defence
Natural disasters Natural disasters Natural disasters Natural disasters
Civil protection
Civil protection
"Homeland security
"
(civil defence)
"Homeland security"
(civil defence)
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of on the part of
groups of dissidents groups of dissidents
Armed aggression Armed aggression
on the part of on the part of
groups of dissidents groups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters "Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies
"
(resilience)
"Civil contingencies"
(resilience)
Natural
disasters
Techno-
logical
disasters
Social
disasters
Inten-
tional
disasters
Natural Anthropogenic Natural Anthropogenic
Civil
defence
Civil "Civil
contingencies"
Civil protection
"Homeland
Security"
disasters
Techno-
logical
disasters
Social
disasters
Inten-
tional
disasters
Natural Anthropogenic Natural Anthropogenic
Civil
defence
Civil "Civil
contingencies"
Civil protection
"Homeland
Security"
"Civil "Civil
contingencies" contingencies"
management management
"Civil "Civil
contingencies" contingencies"
management management
Civil Civil
protection protection
Civil Civil
protection protection
TheThe
security security
industry industry
TheThe
security security
industry industry
Emergencies
and disasters
"Homeland "Homeland
security" security"
"Homeland "Homeland
security" security"
Business Business
continuity continuity
management management
Business Business
continuity continuity
management management
Complex Complex
emergencies emergencies
Complex Complex
emergencies emergencies
Emergencies
and disasters
contingencies" contingencies"
management management
"Civil "Civil
contingencies" contingencies"
management management
Civil Civil
protection protection
Civil Civil
protection protection
TheThe
security security
industry industry
TheThe
security security
industry industry
Emergencies
and disasters
"Homeland "Homeland
security" security"
"Homeland "Homeland
security" security"
Business Business
continuity continuity
management management
Business Business
continuity continuity
management management
Complex Complex
emergencies emergencies
Complex Complex
emergencies emergencies
Emergencies
and disasters
Homeland Homeland Homeland Homeland
Civil protection Civil protection
::
what degree of what degree of
political support? political support?
Civil protection Civil protection::
what degree of what degree of
political support? political support?
What role for What role for
the the security security
industry industry
inin
the general the general
emergency? emergency?
What role for What role for
the the security security
industry industry
inin
the general the general
emergency? emergency?
What are the What are the
limits of limits of civil civil
contingencies contingencies management management
??
Emergencies
and disasters
Homeland Homeland security security
::
is reduction is reduction
in civil liberties in civil liberties
acceptable? acceptable?
Homeland Homeland security security
::
is reduction is reduction
in civil liberties in civil liberties
acceptable? acceptable?
What What
relationship relationship
of of business business
continuity continuity
management management
with civil with civil
authorities? authorities?
What What
relationship relationship
of of business business
continuity continuity
management management
with civil with civil
authorities? authorities?
Complex emergencies Complex emergencies
::
How much aid from How much aid from
donor countries? donor countries?
Complex emergencies Complex emergencies::
How much aid from How much aid from
donor countries? donor countries?
Emergencies
and disasters
Civil protection Civil protection
::
what degree of what degree of
political support? political support?
Civil protection Civil protection::
what degree of what degree of
political support? political support?
What role for What role for
the the security security
industry industry
inin
the general the general
emergency? emergency?
What role for What role for
the the security security
industry industry
inin
the general the general
emergency? emergency?
What are the What are the
limits of limits of civil civil
contingencies contingencies management management
??
Emergencies
and disasters
Homeland Homeland security security
::
is reduction is reduction
in civil liberties in civil liberties
acceptable? acceptable?
Homeland Homeland security security
::
is reduction is reduction
in civil liberties in civil liberties
acceptable? acceptable?
What What
relationship relationship
of of business business
continuity continuity
management management
with civil with civil
authorities? authorities?
What What
relationship relationship
of of business business
continuity continuity
management management
with civil with civil
authorities? authorities?
Complex emergencies Complex emergencies
::
How much aid from How much aid from
donor countries? donor countries?
Complex emergencies Complex emergencies::
How much aid from How much aid from
donor countries? donor countries?
Emergencies
and disasters
Hazard Hazard
monitoring & monitoring &
forecasting forecasting
Disaster Disaster
management management
Major Major
incident incident
Policies Policies
Plans Plans
Procedures Procedures
Human & Human & material material
Population Population
(community) (community)
protection protection
incident incident
management management
Incident Incident
management management
Procedures Procedures Protocols Protocols
material material
resources resources
monitoring & monitoring &
forecasting forecasting
Disaster Disaster
management management
Major Major
incident incident
Policies Policies
Plans Plans
Procedures Procedures
Human & Human & material material
Population Population
(community) (community)
protection protection
incident incident
management management
Incident Incident
management management
Procedures Procedures Protocols Protocols
material material
resources resources
Resilience and Resilience and
Sustainability Sustainability
Resilience and Resilience and
Sustainability Sustainability
Sustainability Sustainability
Resilience and Resilience and
Sustainability Sustainability
An asset is not An asset is not
vulnerable unless vulnerable unless
it is it is
threatened threatened
by something by something
A hazard is not A hazard is not
hazardous unless hazardous unless
it it
threatens threatens
something something
RISK RISK
Resilience
Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability
Hazard Hazard Hazard Hazard
RISK RISK
Extreme Extreme
events events
Elements Elements
at risk at risk
Exposure
vulnerable unless vulnerable unless
it is it is
threatened threatened
by something by something
A hazard is not A hazard is not
hazardous unless hazardous unless
it it
threatens threatens
something something
RISK RISK
Resilience
Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability Vulnerability
Hazard Hazard Hazard Hazard
RISK RISK
Extreme Extreme
events events
Elements Elements
at risk at risk
Exposure
DRRDRR
Knowledge Knowledge
of of
community community
vulerability vulerability
Knowledge Knowledge of hazards of hazards
andand their their
impacts impacts
DRRDRR
Knowledge Knowledge of coping of coping
capacity capacity andand
resilience resilience
Disaster Disaster
Risk Risk
Reduction Reduction
Knowledge Knowledge
of of
community community
vulerability vulerability
Knowledge Knowledge of hazards of hazards
andand their their
impacts impacts
DRRDRR
Knowledge Knowledge of coping of coping
capacity capacity andand
resilience resilience
Disaster Disaster
Risk Risk
Reduction Reduction
Disaster risk Disaster risk
Population
(community)
protection
Plans,
procedures,
protocols
Plans,
procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk Disaster risk
reduction reduction
Incident
management
Incident
management
Human
and material
resources
Human
and material
resources
Hazard
forecasting,
monitoring,
etc.
Hazard
forecasting,
monitoring,
etc.
Population
(community)
protection
Plans,
procedures,
protocols
Plans,
procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk Disaster risk
reduction reduction
Incident
management
Incident
management
Human
and material
resources
Human
and material
resources
Hazard
forecasting,
monitoring,
etc.
Hazard
forecasting,
monitoring,
etc.
needs to be shortened
needs to be
lengthened
preparation
for the
next event
warning
Reconstruction
repair of
basic
services
Emergency
management
impact impact
services
impact impact
Sustainable
reduction
of risks and impacts
needs to be
lengthened
preparation
for the
next event
warning
Reconstruction
repair of
basic
services
Emergency
management
impact impact
services
impact impact
Sustainable
reduction
of risks and impacts
Sustainable Sustainable
emergency emergency management: management:-- Sustainable Sustainableemergency emergency management: management:--
••isis centred centred uponupon the the
local local level level
((but but isis
harmonised harmonised
fromfrom above above))
••isis centred centred uponupon the the
local local level level
((but but isis
harmonised harmonised
fromfrom above above))
••hashas the the support support andand
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
••hashas the the support support andand
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
••is based on is based on
plans plans
that are fully that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised disseminated and frequently revised
••is based on is based on
plans plans
that are fully that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised disseminated and frequently revised
••is a fundamental, every is a fundamental, every--day day
service service
for the population and is taken for the population and is taken
seriously seriously
..
••is a fundamental, every is a fundamental, every--day day
service service
for the population and is taken for the population and is taken
seriously seriously
..
emergency emergency management: management:-- Sustainable Sustainableemergency emergency management: management:--
••isis centred centred uponupon the the
local local level level
((but but isis
harmonised harmonised
fromfrom above above))
••isis centred centred uponupon the the
local local level level
((but but isis
harmonised harmonised
fromfrom above above))
••hashas the the support support andand
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
••hashas the the support support andand
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
involvement involvement
ofof
the the
population population
••is based on is based on
plans plans
that are fully that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised disseminated and frequently revised
••is based on is based on
plans plans
that are fully that are fully
disseminated and frequently revised disseminated and frequently revised
••is a fundamental, every is a fundamental, every--day day
service service
for the population and is taken for the population and is taken
seriously seriously
..
••is a fundamental, every is a fundamental, every--day day
service service
for the population and is taken for the population and is taken
seriously seriously
..
Attitude: Attitude:
••positive outlook positive outlook
••ingenious approaches ingenious approaches
••searching for solutions searching for solutions
••involving other people involving other people
Attitude: Attitude:
••positive outlook positive outlook
••ingenious approaches ingenious approaches
••searching for solutions searching for solutions
••involving other people involving other people
RESILIENCE RESILIENCE RESILIENCE RESILIENCE
Redundancy Redundancy ••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
Redundancy Redundancy ••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
Preparedness: Preparedness:
••emergency plans emergency plans
••monitoring & forecasting monitoring & forecasting
••warning & evacuation warning & evacuation
••public information public information
Preparedness: Preparedness:
••emergency plans emergency plans
••monitoring & forecasting monitoring & forecasting
••warning & evacuation warning & evacuation
••public information public information
••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
••alternative solutions alternative solutions
••extra capacity extra capacity
••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
••alternative solutions alternative solutions
••extra capacity extra capacity
••positive outlook positive outlook
••ingenious approaches ingenious approaches
••searching for solutions searching for solutions
••involving other people involving other people
Attitude: Attitude:
••positive outlook positive outlook
••ingenious approaches ingenious approaches
••searching for solutions searching for solutions
••involving other people involving other people
RESILIENCE RESILIENCE RESILIENCE RESILIENCE
Redundancy Redundancy ••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
Redundancy Redundancy ••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
Preparedness: Preparedness:
••emergency plans emergency plans
••monitoring & forecasting monitoring & forecasting
••warning & evacuation warning & evacuation
••public information public information
Preparedness: Preparedness:
••emergency plans emergency plans
••monitoring & forecasting monitoring & forecasting
••warning & evacuation warning & evacuation
••public information public information
••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
••alternative solutions alternative solutions
••extra capacity extra capacity
••
expensive but worthwhile expensive but worthwhile
••alternative solutions alternative solutions
••extra capacity extra capacity
Total Total
vulnerability vulnerability
Risk perception Risk perception
factors factors
Risk perception Risk perception
factors factors
--
++
positive positive negative negative
RiskRisk
amplification amplification
factors factors
RiskRisk
amplification amplification
factors factors
RiskRisk
mitigation mitigation
factors factors
RiskRisk
mitigation mitigation
factors factors
Total Total
vulnerability vulnerability
DIALECTIC DIALECTIC DIALECTIC DIALECTIC
vulnerability vulnerability
Risk perception Risk perception
factors factors
Risk perception Risk perception
factors factors
--
++
positive positive negative negative
RiskRisk
amplification amplification
factors factors
RiskRisk
amplification amplification
factors factors
RiskRisk
mitigation mitigation
factors factors
RiskRisk
mitigation mitigation
factors factors
Total Total
vulnerability vulnerability
DIALECTIC DIALECTIC DIALECTIC DIALECTIC
Linkages
Mitigation Mitigation
and risk
reduction
Preparation Preparation
and
warning
Integration
through planning
and training
Emergency
action
Recovery Recovery
and
reconstruction
Mitigation Mitigation
and risk
reduction
Preparation Preparation
and
warning
Integration
through planning
and training
Emergency
action
Recovery Recovery
and
reconstruction
Intensive risk Intensive risk Intensive risk Intensive risk Extensive risk Extensive risk Extensive risk Extensive risk
Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying
riskriskdrivers drivers
e.g. vulnerability e.g. vulnerability
Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers
e.g. weak governance e.g. weak governance
Disaster Disaster Disaster Disaster
impacts impacts
Everyday risk Everyday risk Everyday risk Everyday risk
Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty
Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying
riskrisk
e.g. vulnerability e.g. vulnerability
Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers
e.g. weak governance e.g. weak governance
Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty
outcomes outcomes
Disaster risk and poverty Disaster risk and poverty
Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying
riskriskdrivers drivers
e.g. vulnerability e.g. vulnerability
Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers
e.g. weak governance e.g. weak governance
Disaster Disaster Disaster Disaster
impacts impacts
Everyday risk Everyday risk Everyday risk Everyday risk
Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty
Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying
riskrisk
e.g. vulnerability e.g. vulnerability
Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers Global drivers
e.g. weak governance e.g. weak governance
Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty
outcomes outcomes
Disaster risk and poverty Disaster risk and poverty
••
governance governance
: the action or : the action or
manner of governing (OED) manner of governing (OED)
••
governance governance
: the action or : the action or
manner of governing (OED) manner of governing (OED)
••
participatory democracy participatory democracy
and using and using
the concept of stakeholders the concept of stakeholders
••
participatory democracy participatory democracy
and using and using
the concept of stakeholders the concept of stakeholders
Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need:
••
transparency transparency
, freedom from corruption, , freedom from corruption,
economic probity and good government economic probity and good government
••
transparency transparency
, freedom from corruption, , freedom from corruption,
economic probity and good government economic probity and good government
••the importance of protecting the importance of protecting
livelihoods livelihoods
••the importance of protecting the importance of protecting
livelihoods livelihoods
••
linking linking
the disaster risk reduction agenda the disaster risk reduction agenda
to the climate change adaptation one to the climate change adaptation one
..
••
linking linking
the disaster risk reduction agenda the disaster risk reduction agenda
to the climate change adaptation one to the climate change adaptation one
..
governance governance
: the action or : the action or
manner of governing (OED) manner of governing (OED)
••
governance governance
: the action or : the action or
manner of governing (OED) manner of governing (OED)
••
participatory democracy participatory democracy
and using and using
the concept of stakeholders the concept of stakeholders
••
participatory democracy participatory democracy
and using and using
the concept of stakeholders the concept of stakeholders
Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need: Conclusions: what we need:
••
transparency transparency
, freedom from corruption, , freedom from corruption,
economic probity and good government economic probity and good government
••
transparency transparency
, freedom from corruption, , freedom from corruption,
economic probity and good government economic probity and good government
••the importance of protecting the importance of protecting
livelihoods livelihoods
••the importance of protecting the importance of protecting
livelihoods livelihoods
••
linking linking
the disaster risk reduction agenda the disaster risk reduction agenda
to the climate change adaptation one to the climate change adaptation one
..
••
linking linking
the disaster risk reduction agenda the disaster risk reduction agenda
to the climate change adaptation one to the climate change adaptation one
..
••to have a to have a
political profile political profile
••to have a to have a
political profile political profile
••to be to be
adaptable adaptable
to rapid and to rapid and
profound changes in political profound changes in political
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and
••to be to be
adaptable adaptable
to rapid and to rapid and
profound changes in political profound changes in political
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and
The disaster manager needs... The disaster manager needs...
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and demographic circumstances demographic circumstances priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and demographic circumstances demographic circumstances
••to to
monitor monitor
the climate change the climate change
agenda, science and debate agenda, science and debate
••to to
monitor monitor
the climate change the climate change
agenda, science and debate agenda, science and debate
••to ensure that his or her to ensure that his or her
programmes are programmes are
sustainable sustainable
..
••to ensure that his or her to ensure that his or her
programmes are programmes are
sustainable sustainable
..
political profile political profile
••to have a to have a
political profile political profile
••to be to be
adaptable adaptable
to rapid and to rapid and
profound changes in political profound changes in political
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and
••to be to be
adaptable adaptable
to rapid and to rapid and
profound changes in political profound changes in political
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and
The disaster manager needs... The disaster manager needs...
priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and demographic circumstances demographic circumstances priorities, environmental and priorities, environmental and demographic circumstances demographic circumstances
••to to
monitor monitor
the climate change the climate change
agenda, science and debate agenda, science and debate
••to to
monitor monitor
the climate change the climate change
agenda, science and debate agenda, science and debate
••to ensure that his or her to ensure that his or her
programmes are programmes are
sustainable sustainable
..
••to ensure that his or her to ensure that his or her
programmes are programmes are
sustainable sustainable
..
Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you
for your for your
attention! attention!
Thank you Thank you
for your for your
attention! attention!
for your for your
attention! attention!
Thank you Thank you
for your for your
attention! attention!
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