Coatue View on the State of the Markets 2024

razinmustafiz 1,060 views 51 slides Aug 20, 2024
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About This Presentation

Source: https://www.coatue.com/blog/company-update/coatues-2024-emw-conference


Slide Content

COATUE

EMW/2024

4

Disclaimer

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MANAGEMENT, LLC. (‘COATUE?)

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OFFERING DOCUMENT (‘CPOM") DESCRIBING THE OFFERING AND RELATED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT.

IN THE CASE OF ANY INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE DESCRIPTIONS OR TERMS IN THIS PRESENTATION AND THE CPOM, THE CPOM SHALL CONTROL.

COATUE HAS PROVIDED THIS PRESENTATION SOLELY IN CONNECTION WITH ONGOING OR INTENDED DISCUSSIONS WITH THE PERSON TO WHOM IT HAS BEEN DELIVERED. IN
THIS REGARD, THE PERFORMANCE FIGURES, AND CERTAIN OTHER INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS PRESENTATION, REQUIRE FURTHER EXPLANATION AND MUST BE
DISCUSSED WITH YOUR COATUE REPRESENTATIVES. ACCORDINGLY, PROSPECTIVE INVETORS SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION ABSENT
SUCH DISCUSSIONS.

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ACCURATE, COATUE MAKES NO EXPRESS WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY NOR CAN IT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ERRORS, APPEARING IN THE
PRESENTATION. NEITHER COATUE NOR ITS AFFILIATES ASSUMES ANY DUTY TO UPDATE THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES OF ANY KIND
AND THERE IS NO ASSURANCE THAT THE POLICIES, STRATEGIES OR APPROACHES DISCUSSED HEREIN WILL NOT CHANGE.

ANY PROJECTIONS, MARKET OUTLOOKS OR ESTIMATES IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS.
OTHER EVENTS WHICH WERE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT MAY OCCUR AND MAY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT INVESTMENT RETURNS OR PERFORMANCE.

ANY PROJECTIONS, OUTLOOKS OR ASSUMPTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE INDICATIVE OF THE ACTUAL EVENTS WHICH WILL OCCUR. HISTORICAL RETURNS ARE
NOT PREDICTIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES, INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS AND PARAMETERS, PROCEDURES,
POLICIES, AND INVESTMENT AND OTHER PERSONNEL MAY BE CHANGED, MODIFIED, TERMINATED OR SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME, WITHOUT NOTICE.

THIS PRESENTATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE OR DISTRIBUTION. THIS PRESENTATION HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED BY THE U.S. SECURITIES AND
EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR ANY OTHER FEDERAL OR STATE REGULATOR,

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES IN THE APPENDIX.

COATUE EMW/2024

Keynote Agenda

— 1. State of the Public Markets & Our Outlook

COATUE

Wisdom of our 2023 EMW crowd
Question 1: Has the market bottomed?
=> Your prediction from EMW 2023

Q: Has the market bottomed?

% of respondents

49%
39%
12%
Market Al will
Marketi omo, a
aan Ls
make lows conservative new highs

COATUE nana sa

Correct answer: Al powered market to new highs!
Performance since EMW 2023

pl Nasdaq +30%

Al Basket +51%

+209%

EMW/2024

Wisdom of our 2023 EMW crowd
Question 2: Are we in an Al or Mega Cap Bubble?

— Your prediction from EMW 2023 —— Correct answer: Continued strong performance from Al for now
Q: Are we in an Al or Mega Cap Bubble? NVDA performance since last EMW
% of respondents nviiA.
$2.9
56%
> Earnings 3x
44% (Next 12 Months)
$0.9
Bubble or | Notabubble 25 PIE 39x
overextended H
Stock Return 0,
© na +209%

Seen | EMW/2024

Wisdom of our 2023 EMW crowd
Question 3: Who will be the most valuable Al company in 5 years?
> Your prediction from EMW 2023 > Correct answer for now: NVDA, META, and maybe OpenAl?

Market cap ($B) and growth from last EMW

Q: Who will be the most valuable Al Co. in 5 years?

% of respondents
EE Microsoft | 3,300 +29%
= =
é ES =
Google D: +40%
Gopenal | ~100 +245%
00 Meta | | 1,300 Most Improved Player +78%
amazon | | 1,900 +48%

AN A

How did Coatue do on its 2023 predictions?

Coatue Prediction Reality

— Dawn of a new super cycle

—— Follow the GPU — many new winners

— Hard landing unlikely

—— Al more important than macro

—> Profitable growth at reasonable P/Es

Market Regime

— Large >> Small

EME CSS, —> Continued pressure on funding & exits

COATUE Sa malen EMW/2024

Market broke through to new highs

——> NASDAQ Performance

18,000 2

ES

Le]

ES
14,000: EMW/2023

Nasdaq
10,000 Perf. since i
EMW 2023 +30%

Time for a new acronym? [raanc] © | mag7 | © [sexys] © | Fabs | © [aia

—> 2023 Returns — > YTD 2024 Returns

<ANVIDIA. I] 230% Sf | 174%
Meta A 194% — 46%
Google [Ei
na 123%
BE Microsoft Ki
é ll 15%
ms +: E

S&P 500

| 14%

ORTE a a EMW/2024

Al has been the dominant driver of returns this year

=>? SPX Performance Attribution Year-To-Date

0,
13% Median Returns: ®
Al: Non-Al:
20% 2%

213
Al = osex
returns

Alis 90% of
returns for
NDX!

Everyone recognizes that Al is the next tech platform shift

AMD
FAX Adobe
Hi Microso Google
09 Meta
Gen Al
Mobile Cloud
Internet 1SaaS
Desktop (Web 2.0)

Internet

Mainframe

1960-1980 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2015 - 2020 2022 - 2023+

COATUE EMW/2024

But we believe this is the start of a potential Super-Cycle

7.
/
O . /
Al marks a new phase in ra
the long-term compute A Va
Journey PEE Coatue's
_ View

Consensus

View
1960-1980 19808 19908 20008 20108 2015-2020 2022 - 2023+
Mainframe Pc Networking Desktop Mobile Cloud / Saas Gen Al

Internet Internet
COATUE = = EMW/2024

Coatue Framework for Al S-Curve

Al Core Infrastructure Edge Al Al Applications Physical Al
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4+

AlS-curve ===

(COATUE Er ee reece eee er Een PRE CEE EMW/2024

Infrastructure layer is the biggest winner in Al for now

> Market capitalization added since January 1, 2023

ser
~$6T
ser Al Infra
sar
$21
sor
a 02 03 a4 a 02

sees” EMW/2024

New areas of Al infrastructure are emerging beyond Semis!

=> Alstocks with >25% return YTD

GPUs 7 Industrials

“ ES
Foundry
2 Energy
Semi capital
equipment
2 Internet
Memory
Networking Be

& Other

mn ce rs re AO we
A AAA A

Whose bingo card had “Utilities are rivaling NVDA's stock
return’?
RisephAk Race since EMW 2023

Top S&P performers LTM Aviva.
209%
Utilities

GPU OEM

149%

Al Power
Utilities Basket

Utilities

GPU

EMW 23 2023 YE EMW ‘24

COATUE Xe EMW/2024

Al is creating record dispersion between winners & losers

—_ YTD performance of factor basket long vs. short legs

Mega Cap Semis
vs. vs.
Non-Profitable Software
43%
A +34%
H A

v 413%
-20%
Spread +63% +48%
| Profit & Scale [ Al infra leads Al apps )
CUE EE Bao pes | EM 2024

What is going on here!?!

=>? Comparison of SaaS & Semis indices over time

SaaS

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

COATUE Fire tan nn odres del Cons pr wary al GG EMW/2024

Key Questions

Is software dead?

EMW/2024

Our view: Al is not a valuation bubble like .com era...

1999 “Internet Boom” 2024 “Al Boom”
P/E multiple | | PIE multiple
OUI LOU LE
NVIDIA
cisco a
140X
= 80x
120X
60X
40x
Pe 40x a 39x
20x 20x
= 5 Year Avg. ox 5 Year Avg. (2019-2023) Current
CONTUE ar Segen mr m ee eee ett ne nn rer cor tm

SS atin ee gee pe a o Ve e ea ee or ronca EMW/2024

Is ~$3T for dominant “OS” of a key technology the norm today?

— Market cap across key underlying technologies of previous waves

Market >05% ~50% ~40% ~90% ~80% Shared Characteristics
Al Smartphones E-Commerce Internet SaaS $100-500B+ revenue
& Cloud
$50-100B+ net income
1B+ users or 80%+ of Fortune 500
~$3.2T ~$3.3T ~$3.3T
Undisputed category leaders
~$1.9T ~$2.2T
Strong ecosystems
€ 5 a Tech / R&D leadership
Es d a
aws Global reach
CRUE en rene

ins?!?
Are Semis margins the new Software margins?!7

— EBIT Margin (%)

43%

39% = — 38% org 33% 33% 31%

26%

9%

arm sh Moo GE comets EWS Googe oncom BD
he

Can we even afford all the NVDA chips?

— 2030 Coatue Al Infra Cost Estimates as % of Global IT Spend/Capex/GPD

Represents

2024 GPUs 2030 GPUs
18% of global IT spend

1.5x $1.2T

multiplier for Total Al
related spend Infra Spend

—5M units = 25M units
15% of global capex

$120B $800B
1% of GDP

A

Is there sufficient potential value to justify the cost of Al?

Examples
Al customer service
. te
E ESTA $1.8T of OPEX reductions equates to =
Infra Spend Coding
5% 3% 5% Pas! cous
rn van A aa |
ae, Humanoids
1
= $600B RO!
> ~$1.8T hs
.2T DBA
ml) Online ads

N $3.6T of revenue generation at 50% margin

Recommendation
3% 2% engines

of global public co revenues: of global GDP

Al software /
higher ARPU

EMW/2024

COATUE SE

Key Questions

Is software dead?

EMW/2024

Software valuations near all-time lows ...

—— Software valuations close to lows

Software P/ Fwd Sales

20x

15x

SaaS Index

Median: 7.2x

5.5x

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

COATUE

2021 2022 2023 2024

EMW/2024

. but justified by lower growth expectations
Why is software revenue growth

> Median Next 12 Months software revenue growth ——> slowing so much?

Seat growth Many SaaS
CRT vendors saturated
=> of steam in seat penetration
15% IT budgets under
re pressure & focus
utd on cost
optimizations
10%
m Al investments are
PAR crowding out Saas
5% cannibalization cease
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

COATUE A remates mera EMW/2024

Battleground Debate: Is Software an Al Loser or Winner?

Al
Threats
for
Software

Al
Implications
for
Software

COATUE

Will AI shrink the
labor force and pressure
seat-based monetization?

y

Seat-based model dead

y

If Al drives cost of coding
to zero, why buy software
vs. build your own?

y

Code no longer a
software moat

loto
Software
Founders:

re
you Al
dy?

EMW/2024

The future of software interaction will be driven by natural
language
User

Natural Language Questions

Software “Show my emails”

“Build a revenue dashboard”

Data Knowledge

Iceberg Relationships

Zero Copy Open Source
Workflows

Generated With:

Our
Outlook

“Explorer overlooking a metropolitan |
city”

COATUE

Coatue view: Macro likely moved from key market driver to tail

Markets now de-coupled from interest rates —
markets up despite fewer Fed cuts

MACROECONOMICS 404

“1 will probabl)
© Inflation spike was just like Covid — came & went? regret saying:
this...”

© Economy doing just fine, surprisingly resilient

© Most likely path is Soft Landing or Sustained Growth

COATUE Sami EMW/2024

Coatue view: Markets look expensive only on the surface

— S&P 500: Market-Cap Weighted (SPX) vs. Equal Weighted (SPW)

SPX Today Today
25x Ania 3% é 28x
Ei Microsoft 31x Google 21x

Meta 21x

20x

1990 1995 2001 2007 2012 2018 2024

EMW/2024

Earnings are accelerating driven by Al tailwinds

— S&P 500 Earnings (Historical & Consensus Estimates)

‘SPX Last 12 Months EPS & Consensus Estimates

=” SPX 24-26 drivers
Al: SPX ex-Al:
$300
+19% || +6%
$250 cagr°24-26 || cagr 24-26
$200 ~40% of EPS from Tech
265 5%
$150 ut endine >
$100
$50

2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

2020 2022 2024 2026

Beseitigen bert 1 0 u MEU U TEA Po a cn ar
ne gr

een in mao EMW/2024

Our conclusion

© Macro is better & world is very resilient

© Public markets doing well, but we believe Al has been the biggest driver

x} Taiwan likely biggest black swan

EMW/2024

Keynote Agenda

— 2. State of Private Markets & Implications for Founders

COATUE

VC funding is normalizing ...

— Global VC funding ($B) per year
sans

srıra

$6008

54008

$2008

sog
95 95 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

COATUE ma Ca am: rtm so st naman eh ono gyi sn Frhr de | EMW/2024

. while Al funding is accelerating

— Cumulative funding in private Al companies since 2020

$708

$608

$508

zu EMW/2023
$308

$208

$108

sog,
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Co RE EME

Al VC funding is very hot (maybe too hot)

— Comparison of Al vs. Non-Al rounds in US, 2024 YTD

Total # ES An ~3% ~
of deals 200 of total deals 7K
Total $ a ll ~15% la
invested $22B of total capital $ 130B
Average ~$1B | x |) -$200M
valuation $500M+ for Series B "07" the valuation $200M+ for Series B
$1B+ for Series C+ $500M+ for Series C+
Average ai ~6x &
size of round $120M the round size $20M

a EMW/2024

coatue FE 5

Outside of Al, many existing unicorns are not raising capital ...

—> % of unicorns that raised new capital or exited (indexed to quarters since becoming unicorn)

80%
2016 Cohort
(67 Now Unicorns)
60%
40%
2021 “Bubble” Cohort
(580 New Unicorns)
20% Pe.)
Many unicorns not yet re-priced
2022 Cohort and may never get new capital
(830 New Unicoms)

a2 0304 05 06 a iSCSI QM 015 Q16 017 056 Q19 20
Quarters Sinoe Becoming a Unicom

COATUE A te Ren pat eon nie e ete in EMW/2024

… but we still have too many unicorns

—> # of private unicorns

2d

| 25+ year IPO backlog 1,354 5
| More private than public unicorns! | 1,069
592
470
368
267
= = A |
90
44
EM

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Today

COATUE "tm nn age ar tra e aa 20 u pp ee a in nenn os ri a EMW/2024

Growth in the unicorn economy has slowed a lot ...

— Average YIY headcount growth on Linkedin for unicorns, excluding Al

100%

75%

25%

0%
2011 2012 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

COATUE an A er en

EMW/2024

… and no IPOs in sight!

— US technology IPO" count (#)

315

E)

Key Question:
Why are there
no IPOs?

COATUE = ae = ae th EMW/2024

Key Question: Why are there no IPOs???

Key Issues

plications

Ba $10B is the Requires If scale
NIE ein, © new $1B for $1B+ of high Mergers can unattainable,
vola teur Co's viable public margin facilitate scale PE buyout
g larg market cap revenues better option

Private valuations
could still be higher
than public markets

©

Top 1% back to Covid peak
valuation, but average still
down 50%

Be realistic about mark to
markets and put liquidity at
a premium

Public investors have
a lot of alternatives

Public investors want it all:
Growth + Profitability + Valuation Support

COATUE EE ne Form pops sant m eh on a an te tne ye on nen Da mt

EMW/2024

Tech IPO performance has been challenging for a long time now

=? Performance of US listed tech IPO since 2020

Offer to Current (%)
+$83B
Market Cap
_ cull
(50%)
Median offer-to-current: (44%)
($225B) Market cap weighted avg: (21%)
(100%) Market Cap

EMW/2024

This is not an issue about private vs. public markets

Public Co’s that are comparable to unicorns struggle just as much

— Max drawdown from Covid high ——> Today's return vs. Covid high

> Return since 2019 YE

GR OT
ï
| Public
1) Unprofitable 17% 61% 20%
{| Tech
ï
ï
i
{| Public -70% 53%
| Saas index 2 Se 20%
ï
ï
ï
Nasdaq -58% y 124%
100 ji =
N N ee rpm

M&A could be productive exit route as everyone reaches for
scale. Tech M&A Volume ($B)

$8538

©

Sponsor PE dry
powder at all time
56238 high, at $1T!
$578B

$4698 ~$4658 (est.)
re

$3288

N

EMW/2024

M&A Case Study: Metropolis acquiring SP+ for $1.5B

Even a parking lot company can leverage Al!

“Al for the real world”

AM metropolis

You just drive in.

we)
y

‘Al computer vision platform that enables
“Checkout-Free” parking experiences

Acquired

Largest parking company in the US

2M+ 3,300

Parking Spaces Commercial Location

$1.8B 4%

2023 Revenue EBIT Margin

After acquiring SP+ for $1.5B, Metropolis was able to 2x EBITDA simply by introducing Al!

COATUE

EMW/2024

Conclusion

(>) Private market stabilized, but little rebound yet outside of Al

© IPO market tight, but plenty of alternative paths
© We believe Al is a new vector of innovation & improvement
for companies across sectors

© Sense of urgency is crucial for both founders & investors

COATUE Fa“ EMW/2024

Appendix — Disclosures

* This prosentation was prepared for Coatue's annual East Meots West (“EMW”) keynote and reflects Coatue's opinions and analysis on the stato of the
Public and private markets as of the date ofthis presentation. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

+ Unless otherwise indicated, any figures and calculations herein are for informational purposes only, computed by Coatue or its advisors and not audited by any third
party

+ Since Al and information herein is based on an emerging technology, we expect our views may evolve or shift over time. As such, information herein is subject to
change at anytime without notice.

* Although Coatue believes that the data expressed in this presentation is accurate and reasonable, actual results could differ materially from those projected
‘or assumed, and such projections are subject to change, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Neither Coatue nor its affiliates or advisors
‘guarantees the accuracy or completeness of the information. Accordingly, neither Coatue nor any of its shall be liable to
You or anyone else for any loss ar damages from use of the information contained in this presentation.

‘This presentation contains forecasts, projections and other forward-Jooking statements, including (but not limited to) the occurrence or outcome of anticipated events,
estimates, future performance and adaption of Al. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results of these events may differ materially from those
TERETE ETI — ‘efected or contemplated in such forwardooking statements. There is no guarantee that such forecasts, projections or forward-looking Statements will occur and
Stones E therefore should not be relies upon.
Projections Projections are forward-ooking statements and actual results may differ material from those presented herein. Projections are inherently unreliable as they are based
on estimates and assumptions about events and conditions that have not yet occurred and any of which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance, representation or
warranty is made that any ofthe projections will occur. Coatue makes no assurance, representation or warranty as to the accuracy or reasonableness ofthe projections
orestimales.

Company metres including nancial mets, re ola pony fr any fund investment performance, and should nt be understood as such Company mets, including
any relurns, are presented io lustrate macroeconomic trends only and are not intended to indicate the returns of any Coatus investment or fund.
Market data and industry information used throughout this memorandum is based on market and industry data and forecasts that Coalue has derived from publicly
Third Party available information, various industry publications, other published industry sources and Coatue's knowledge of the industry and the good faith estimates of Coatue
Information & management. Coatue also relied, to the extent avaiable, upon our review of independent industry surveys and publications, and other publicly available information
Market Data prepared by a number of sources. All of the market data and industry information used herein involves a number of assumptions and limitations, and you are cautioned
‘ot io give undue weight to such estimates,
Certain estimates or projectons in this presentation have been provided or primarily sourced by third partes and have not been independently verifed or audited by
Ceatue, Wile we beleve the sources providing company informaton are general eiable, Costue makes no representation as 1 he accuracy or reliably of such

COATUE EMW/2024

Appendix — Disclosures

‘This presentation contains forward-looking predictions regarding Al and its potential impacts and opportunities, all of which are subject to a number of factors and
Uncertainties. Any characterization of Al herein isthe opinion of Coatue, is subject to change, and shoud not be relied upon in making an investment decision. Given
thal Al is an emerging technology, assessing the future trajectory of the Al industry is inherently challenging, and Coatue's views on its success or failure can be
‘subjective and based on incomplete information, limited perspectives, or speculative assumptions. See also the disclosures regarding forward-looking statements.
Even if Coalue's characterizations and opinions regarding the Al trend were to prove accurate, there Is no suggestion or guarantee that Coatue will be able to identfy
and invest in opportunities presented by Al. The Al industry is multfaceled, encompassing various technologies, applications, and market dynamics. lts complexity
makes i susceptible to unpredictable developments, including breakthrough innovations, disruptve technologies, or unexpected challenges.
‘There are several risks and uncertainties related to the Al thesis, including but not limited to: Ihe cost of GPUs dectine as supply loosens, Al enterprise adoption ramps
more slowiy than Coatue expects, supply chain faling to meet noeds of industry, competion in industry erodes profitability, and Al compute intensity could decino as
Artificial ‘models become more efficient.
Intelligence (Al) CCoatue projections presented herein regarding the future trajectory of Al trends is based in par on the assumption that total GPUs in use will each 25M by 2030, $2T in
‘Semis revenue is based of increases In semis (such as networking and memory) naeded to support $8008 In GPU sales along with legacy semiconductor sales (such
5 analog and power semis). Coatue 2030E GPU projecton is based on internal Coalue analysis, including regarding the number of GPUs required to train and run
‘emerging Al sofware, and includes elements of subjective judgment. Coaiue GPUIAI estimates exceed some estimates published by other market participants,
including certain sell-side frms, and are subject to change, including based on future technological developments. There is no indication or guarantee that such GPU
projections or projections based In part on GPU estimates, will be realized, Please see the lst of risks below for factors that may affect actual GPU metres andlor
future Coatue GPU estimates.
‘Companies herein are not intended to highlight or represent the Coatus portfoto, but rather the broader Al theme, which by nature may include Costue investments. To
the extent Coge pot companies or Inesimets are included here, Coalve makes no suggestion or guarantee regarding the future outcomes or perormance cf
‘companies.

“The companies referenced herein are included for informational purposes only. The information herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to
buy or sell any securlies. The companies do not necessary represent stocks or investments that Coalue owned or owns. In addition, the trends identified and
discussed in this presentation reflect the opinions of Coatue. The trends discussed do not reflect the entire universe and could be impacted by market factors, changes
laws and other factors.

Companies and
Trends "No thic-party firm or company names, brands or Logos used inthis presentation are Coatue's trademarks or registered trademarks, and they remain the property oftheir

respective holders and not Coatue. The inclusion of any third-party fm andlor company names, brands andior logos does not imply any afization with these fms or
panic None ofthese fms of companies has endorsed the mvestmentopportay desorbed hara, Colon any ales of Conte, or Coal s personnel

COATUE EMW/2024
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