CONFLICT IN AFRICA BY LOOKING AT THE NATURAL RESOURCE WEALTH AND CONFLICT

CONFLICT IN AFRICA AND THEIR IMPACTS ON THE AFRICANS PEOPLE

1. NATURAL RESOURCE WEALTH
AND CONFLICT
Course Teacher: Dr. Cameron Thies
Presenter: A.T.M.Abdullahel Shafi
Institute for Sociology
Immatriculation No.2873579
University of Heidelberg, Germany

2. Greed and Grievances of Civil War
Natural Resources and its influences in Civil
War
Loot bale wealth and political disorder
Resource wealth and political regimes in Africa
Discussions
CONTENTS

3. Civil War is Internal Conflict with at least 1000
combat related deaths per year.
Hypothesis: Greed and Grievances have
important similarities as accounts of rebellion.
Indicators:
I. Extortion of Natural Resources
II. Donation from Diasporas
III. Subventions from Hostile Governments.
Greed and Grievances of Civil War

4. The Conflict episodes (5 years as an episode) were on
average slightly less dependent upon primary
commodity exports(proxy natural resources by the
ratio of primary commodity exports of GDP) than the
Peace episodes(conflict free).
Diasporas (The peoples and their heirs living abroad
as immigrants, legal residents etc.) are substantially
smaller in the conflict episodes.
11 of 79 wars broke out during cold war period which
supported opportunity thesis.
KEY FINDINGS

5. Inequality is slightly higher in the conflict episodes.
Conflict episodes had markedly larger populations
than the peace episodes.
Proxies for Military advantage is marginally
significant with mountainous terrain, population
dispersion and social fractionalization.
Probability of civil war with respect to primary
commodity exports is about 33%.
Oil Exports have a distinct effects on the risk of
conflict.
After a civil war, there is a risk of 32% to be
restarted. The risk declined at a rate of 1% per year.
KEY
FINDINGS

6. Civil war is insignificant with forest coverage,
population density and proportion of young man
aged 15 to 29.
Diasporas substantially increase the risk of conflict
renewal.
Inequality does not have an effect on conflict
episodes.
Political rights, ethnic polarization(not ethnic
dominance),religious fractionalization is
insignificant with conflicts .But heterogeneity
increases conflict risk.
KEY
FINDINGS

7. Scientific Evidences:
oExport of primary commodity face a high risk of
civil war(Collier and Hoeffler, Doyle and Sambanis)
oOil exporting states are more likely to face civil
wars(Fearon, Laitin and de Soysa).
oPresence of Narcotics and Gemstone tends to
make civil war last longer
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ITS
INFLUENCE IN CIVIL WAR

8. Hypothesis

13. Resource wealth Foreign Interventions
Civil war
Future contracts for Resource booty startup
costs funded civil war.
Weaker(stronger ) side sells future contracts for
resource booty War lengthened
(shortened).
Preemptive repressions by the government to
protect resources More causalities

14. Lootable wealth is defined as lucrative, easy to
transport resources such as gems, tropical
timbers and illicit drugs generates disorder by
supplying motive and means for armed
rebellion.
Hypothesis: Lootable wealth breed disorder
DOES LOOTBALE WEALTH BREED
DISORDER?

18. Sticks
Carrots
Building Institutions for Joint
Extraction

19. Shifts in the balance of power
Decreasing value of lootable resources
Bequeathability problems
Grievances
Joint extractions and political order
The breakdown of joint extractions: Fiscal roots
of state collapse
Demobilization of narcotics
Joint extraction and political order: A narco
military regime
Extractions

20. Hypothesis: Resource abundance is a crucial
determinants of African political regimes
natural resource–dependent economies
(a) were more likely to be authoritarian,
(b) exhibit higher levels of government spending,
 (c) are associated with worse governance, and
(d)were more likely to lead to breakdown in
democracy after the third wave of democratic
transitions in the 1990s
resource dependence is negatively correlated with
change in the level of democracy
RESOURCE WEALTH AND POLITICAL
REGIMES IN AFRICA

21. Resource abundance is likely to increase income
inequality and the consolidation of dictatorial
regimes.
According to Bratton,from the founding elections
that took place in the period from 1989 to 1994 to
the second elections that took place in period from
1995 to 1997, there was a decline in the rate of
leadership alternation (37% to 6.6%), an increase
in the rate of opposition boycotts (11% to 73%),
and an increase in the mean of winner’s vote share
(61.4% to 69.1% for presidential elections and
62.7% to 72.0% in parliamentary elections).

22. Bratton’s data reveal that opposition boycotts
and election riggings took place mostly in petro
states or resource-dependent countries such as
Gabon, Cameroon, Togo, and Zambia.
In other resource-dependent countries, such as
Algeria,Congo, the former Zaire, and Sierra
Leone, democratization simply sank into civil
wars.

23. As the share of oil revenues in its gross
domestic product (GDP) increased from 1% in
1960 and 30% in 1964 to more than 90% after
1979, its government became increasingly
centralized and oppressive (Bienen, 1983).
Only 4 of Nigeria’s past 35 years of political
history have been under civilian rule. Oil
revenues have allowed the government to
consolidate power on the federal level by
creating financially resource-dependent states.
More than half (55%) of oil rents accrue directly
to the federal government, which is
responsible for distributing an additional 35%
of these profits to states (Khan Ahmad, 1994).

24. African rentier economies tend to generate authoritarian
governments or undermine democratic governance
From the period between 1970 and 1995, countries with
higher levels of natural resource dependence tended to
be more authoritarian than their less resource
dependent counterparts.
Higher levels of natural resources are associated with
higher levels of government consumption and worse
government performance.
After the initial wave of democratization, countries with
higher levels of natural resource dependence
experienced a backslide toward authoritarian rule.

26. Natural resources are
 (a) associated with lower levels of democracy
(b) more likely to have high levels of
government consumption, and
(c) generally associated with worse governance.
(d) Both foreign aid and resource dependence
had a positive and statistically significant effect
on government consumption
CONTINUED

27. What is the correlation between the lower the
rate of growth and political change?
What are the economic and political costs of
toll of deaths of African civil war?
What are the Political implication of Civil war
and Western economy?
Discussions Questions

28. Thanks all for your kind concentration