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1. DELPHI TECHNIQUE REBECCA - 01 LIZANN - 12 SAILEE - 22 PRACHI - 37 JOLANDA - 46

2. History of Delphi The name refers to the Oracle of Delphi a priestess at a temple of APPOLLO in ancient Greece known for prophecies . The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the cold war to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The Delphi method was developed by RAND corporation during 1950-60 by Olaf Helmer and Merman Dalkey .

3. INTRODUCTION The Delphi method is a systematic interactive way of gaining opinions / forecast from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds. It is a type of consensus method which does not require face to face meeting . Delphi technique is usually conducted through questionnaires.

4. Steps 1) Choose a Facilitator – You can take on this role by yourself or find a neutral person within your organisation ( someone known to research and data collection). 2) Identify your Experts – A panel of experts on a particular problem area is selected, usually from both inside and outside the organisation . 3)Define the Problem – What is the problem or what issue are u seeking to understand . Experts need to know what problems they are commenting on , hence it has to be a precise and comprehensive definition.

5. 4)Round One questions – General questions for future understanding. 5)Round Two Questions –Based on the answers of the first question and should delve deeper into the topic to clarify specific issues. We are seeking to build consensus. 6)Round Three Questions – Focus on decision making . Hone in on the areas of agreement. 7)Act on your Findings –Analyze the finding and put the plans in place to deal with future risk and opporunties to your project.

6. Advantages Allows participations. Individuals are able to express their own opinion . Includes wide range of expertise. Potential to gain large quantities of data It is used to tackle a wide variety of issues, subject and situations . Location is not a constraint.

7. Disadvantages Time consuming. No reliability on the techniques. Complexity of data analysis. Needs skills to develop and analyze survey Needs high participant motivation .Success of the method depends on the quality of the Participants. Consensus is poorly defined. Opinions may differ.

8. BHEL demonstrated the value of Delphi in long range planning in the mid 1980s. Data from 286 employees. 1 st round open ended questionnaire. 2 nd round -1) Reassesment of their earlier estimate in view of the new information.2) Priority ranking. 3 rd round-1)Final estimates based on results of . 2)Rationale for their ideas. This process identified likely development of 19 new energy sources.

9. Bell Canada was one of the first businesses to adapt the Delphi technique to its forecasting activities. In the late 1960s, Bell Canada conducted a series of wide-ranging Delphi studies to determine the future course of technology and its applications in diverse areas of life. Round 1 - questions were based on information from literature and assumptions it relied on basic marketing approach defining the "market segments" that will have the most important impact on future applications of visual and data communications . Took feedback about what the managers and people felt about the inclusion of telecommunication services and which product would they shop from home. Round 2 - a. analysis of statistics from round 1 and realizing one market area was still largely unresolved: the future of communications services in the residence market. b. They defined who is an “expert” like industry specialist for inputs on telecommunication sector for internal and for residential targeted house wives external panelist. This time they could come up with how it can be used for education and business procedures this helped in lessening the no of rounds and they could come to a proper conclusion. Conclusions from both the rounds led to the rise of Bell Mobility, Bell Media and for most recent it’s their app MyBell .

10. Conclusion The Delphi Technique is used for identifying risks and opportunities , compiling lessons learnt and anytime you would usually conduct a brainstorming session . Predicting the future is not an exact science , but the Delphi Technique can help you understand the likelihood of future events and what impact they may have on your project.