DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES-HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING.pptx

THIS TOPIC DISCUSSED THE TECHNIQUES OF DEMAND FORECASTING IN HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

1. B. KALPANA Techniques for Demand Forecasting HRP

2. There are several techniques use for forecasting Managerial Judgment Trend Analysis Ratio Analysis Scatter Plot Computerized Forecast Work Study Technique Delphi technique Regression Analysis Econometric Models cont…..

3. 10 . Nominal Group Technique 11. H R Budget and Planning Analysis 12. Scenario Forecasting 13. Workforce Analysis 14. Workload Analysis 15. Job Analysis

4. Managerial Judgment This techniques is very simple. In this, manager sit together, discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future demand for labor. The technique may involve a ‘bottom-to-top’ or ‘top-to-bottom’ approach. TOP DOWN APPROACH BOTTOM UP APPROACH PARTICIPATIVE APPROACH

5. Trend Analysis Method which forecast employments requirements on the basis of some organizational index and is one of the most commonly used approaches for projecting HR demand. Business Factor Annual Volume of Sales. (N.U) Total Number of Employees. Compare the Productivity Ratio. Calculate Human Resources demand. Forecasted Human Resource Requirements.

6. Ratio Analysis Another approach , Ratio analysis , means making forecasts based on the ratio between. Some causal factor (like sales volume) The number of employees required For example: no of workers: volume of sales (1:150) An organization needs= 1,50,000 units When 150 units are produced by 1 man 1,50,000units will be produced by 1/150*150000=1000 workers

7. Scatter Plot A graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables. A scatter plot is another option. HR planner can use scatter plots to determine whether two factors – measure of business activity and staffing levels are related.

8. Computerized Forecast The determination of future staff needs by projecting a firm’s sales, volume of production, and personnel required to maintain this required volume of output, using computers and software packages. Employers also used computerized system to personnel requirements .

9. Work Study Technique It is used when, what length of operations and number of labour is required? Example: T otal amount of production required= 4,00,000units Time required to produce 1 unit = 2 hour Work ability per employee = 1600hr/annum Time required to produce 4 lakh unit = 4,00,000*2 hour= 8,00,000 hour Total workers needed to produce 4 lakh unit=8,00,000/1600=500 workers.

10. Delphi Technique From a group of experts the personnel needs are Collection of HR needs (questionnaire responses) Collection of HR needs (questionnaire responses) Group of experts Summarize various responses Prepare a report Review of reports by experts All experts agree with report Some are not agree with the report DF will be finalize Process will be repeated

11. Regression Analysis Regression analysis identifies the movement of two or more inter-related series. It is used to measure the changes in a variable as a result of changes in other variables. Regression analysis determines the relationship between Y variables such as the number of employees and X variables such as service delivery by actually measuring the relationship that existed in the past. Use of the method begins with a series of observation each costing of a value for the Y variable plus a value for each X variable.

12. Econometric Models Econometric models for estimation of manpower requirement differ from the statistical methods. Past statistical data are analyzed in the hope that it will prove possible to describe precisely the relationships between a number of variables in mathematical and statistical terms.

13. Scenario Forecasting Scenario techniques is used to explore the likelihood of possible future developments and changes and to identify the interaction of uncertain future trends and events. Preparation of Background Selection of Critical Indicators Establishing Past Behavior of Indicators Verification of Potential Future Events Forecasting the indicators Writing of scenarios

14. Job Analysis Job analysis helps in finding out the abilities or skills required to do the jobs efficiently. A detailed study of jobs is usually made to identify the qualification and experience required for them.

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