Demography ( dr.sanjeev sahu)

demography ppt for public health,community medicine person.
describing demography in short with demographic trends in india.

1. DEMOGRAPHY
(STUDY OF POPULATION)
Dr sanjeev sahu
DPH1
Upgraded Department Of community medicine
King George's medical university, lucknow

2. DEMOGRAPY
DEMOGRAPHY-- is scientific study of human population.
-- is statistical study of human population with regard to their size
& structure , their composition by age, sex, marital status &
ethnic origin & the changes to these population like changes in
their birth rate ,death rate & migration.
POPULATION is the number of person occupying a certain geographic area
drawing substance from their habitat and interacting with one another.
HABITAT is natural home.(natural environment of an organism.)
DEMOGRAPHER commonly define population as a collective group of
individual occupying a particular place at a given time.
. Three key word are involved in definition of population
•group
•Place
•Time

3. DEMOGRAPHY
It focus on
(a) change in population size (growth or decline)
(b) composition of population(age,sex,etc)
(c) distribution of population
It deals with`5’ “demographic processes”
(a) fertility or natality
(b) mortality
(c) marriage
(d) migration
(e) social mobility
scientific study of human population

4. Source of demographic data
In India main source of demographic data are
Population census
National sample surveys
Registration of vital events
Adhoc demographic studies.
Importance of demography & demographic data
 Demographic data provide a basis for predicting future trends & making decisions.
 It is also important for formulation, implementation & evaluation of plan ,policies &
programs.
 It guide to policy makers to make policies that can fulfill the needs of various sector
of society such as young ,adult, & aged, unemployed, poor & various cultural group.

5. THEORIES ON POPULATION GROWTH AND DECLINE
MALTHUSIAN THEORY (THOMAS MALTHUS 1766-1834 )
“An assay n the principle of population” theorized that population was
uncontrollable & that it would.
Argued that human population are inescapably caught in conflict between their
“need for food” and “passion between sexes”. population he maintained increases
geometrically (2,4,8,16,…) while food supplies increases only arithmetically
(2,3,4,5…..)
MARXIAN THEORY(CARL MARX)
Marx believed that problem was not primarily one of population but one of the
ownership of the means of production and inequitable distribution of societies
wealth.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY ( WARREN THOMPSON )
in 1929 the American demographer Warren Thompson observed changes in
birth and death rates in industrialized societies over past 200 years or so and
then formulated a model called demographic transition , that describes
population change over time (demographic cycle).

6. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
it has 5 stages through which each country passes during course of time.
STAGE 4:LOW
STATIONARY
STAGE
5:DECLINING
STAGE 1:HIGH
STATIONARY
STAGE 2:EARLY
EXPANDING
STAGE 3:LATE
EXPANDING

7. STAGE 1 2 3 4 5
K/a HIGH
STATIONA
RY
EARLY
EXPANDING
LATE
EXPANDING
LOW
STATIONA
RY
DECLININ
G
B R high unchanged
(remains high)
tends to fall Low Lower than
DR
DR high Begin to fallFalls further Low Low
(higher
than BR)
DG
(demographi
c gap)
Narrow Increasing Increased/start
decreasing
Narrow Reversal
populationStationary Growing
(Increasing
rate)
Growing
(decreasing
rate)
Stationary declining
Population
composition
young young young mixed ageing
EXAMPLE India till
1920
Africa India, ChinaAustria,
Sweden
Germany ,
Hungary
DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
Characteristic & examples of different stages of demographic cycle

8. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

9. 9
Components of population change
FERTILITY (BIRTHS) :
Birth rate :“number of live birth per 1000 estimated mid year population in a given
year”
birth rate is the simplest indicator of fertility.

birth rate (BR) =
number of live birth during a year
------------------------------------------- x1000
Estimated mid year population
MORTALITY ( DEATH ) :
Death rate : “ number of death per 1000 of total mid year population in a
particular place at a specified time”
Death rate(DR) =-----------------------------------x1000
Number of death
Mid year population
MIGRATION
Migration is movement of people from one place to another ( within country or
specified territory ) for the purpose of taking up permanent or semi
permanent residence, usually across a political boundary.

10. 10
Birth and death rates in India
Declining birth rates –
Changes in government attitude
towards growth
spread of education
increased availability of contraception
family planning programs
change in marriage patterns
Declining death rate-
improvement in maternal and child health
services
improved immunization
diarrhoeal and respiratory disease control
programs
reduction in infant and child mortality

11. GROWTH RATE
“Change in number of individual in a population pr unit time”
When crude death rate subtracted to crude birth rate, the net residual is
current annual growth rate, exclusive of migration.
Annual growth rate = crude birth rate – crude death rate
Annual growth ratePopulation rating Population doubling time
0 stationary
<0.5% slow growth >139 year
0.5-1% moderate growth >70 year (139 -70)
1-1.5% rapid growth appox.50 year (70 -47)
1.5-2% Very rapid growth appox.40 year (47-35)
>2% Explosive growth < 35 year
On the basis of annual growth rate, population rating & its doubling time
Modified from ,Source : principles of demography john Wiley
(1969)

12. Annual growth rate(AGR)
Annual growth rate = crude birth rate – crude death rate
look the example :
Crude birth rate of India = 21.6 /1000 population
Crude death rate of India = 7 /1000 population
So
Annual growth rate of India = 21.6 – 7 =14.6 /1000 population
Or
=1.46 %
*Note that this is exclusive of migration , as India has very little net migration rate (-0.005%).
**annual growth rate of India (census 2011)…..1.64 %

But if we consider migration than…….
Decadal growth rate(DGR): Change in population over a decade
**decadal growth rate of India (census 2011)….17.64 %
**decadal growth rate in Uttar Pradesh………20.1%

13. Migrant is a person who at the time of census is residing at a different
place than his/her place of birth.
Marriage being the most common reason for females and
employment for males .
Census 2001 total no of migrants 314 million in India
Immigration: People moving in to another country
Emigration: People moving away from their home country.
*If you were to move to England, you would be emigrating from India
and immigrating into England.*
Migration is movement of people from one place to another for
the purpose of taking up permanent or semi permanent
residence, usually across a political boundary

MIGRATION

14. ROLE OF MIGRATION IN POPULATION GROWTH
Push-Pull Factor
there are two things that affect population: Fertility/Mortality rate ,
:Migration rate .

Population Growth rate = Rate of natural increase + net migration rate
Rate of natural increase = Birth rate – Death rate
Doubling Time: The amount of time it takes for a country’s population to
double
-Generally known as the Rule of 70:
70 / Population Growth Rate = doubling time
Net migration rate(India)
−0.05 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.)

15. Country Population
(Millions)
Birth Rate per
1000
Death Rate per
1000
Natural Increase
per 1000
% Natural
Increase
India 1,214,464,000
(1.214 billion)
23.0 8.5 14.5 1.45%
Rate of Natural Increase (%)
How to calculate: look the example
Exercise:
Country Population
(Millions)
Birth Rate per
1000
Death Rate per
1000
Natural Increase
per 1000
% Natural
Increase
Russia 140,367,00010.8 15.1
Country Rate of natural
increase (%)
net migration
rate(%)
Population Growth
rate (%)
India 1.45 -0.005 1.45-0.005=1.44
Population growth rate including migration:
*net migration rate of indiça:−0.05 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007
est.)

16. Country Rate of natural
increase (per 1000)
net migration
rate(per 1000)
Population Growth
rate( per 1000)
India 14.5 -0.05 14.45
*** population growth per 1000 is 14.45
Hence,
population growth per individual =14.45/1000
So,
population growth in %=14.45x100/1000
=1.445 %

17. GROWTH TREND OF INDIA
Population
growth of
India
slower1921 rapid
k/a
Great
divide
1991Slight fall2001
Further
fall
2011
**
**better nutrition & improved health care declined death rate more steeply than birth rate. This
result in net gain in birth over death leading to rapid growth.
***recent data suggest decline in India population growth rate, India's population currently
increasing at a rate of 16 million each year.
*slower growth prior to 1921 in India is due to natural checks (eg. Famines & epidemics ).
*Famines ,
epidemics

18. Important definitions in demography
Crude birth rate(CBR): annual no. of live birth per 1000 mid year population.
Crude death rate(CDR): annual no. of death per 1000 mid year population.
General fertility rate(GFR):Annual no. of live birth per 1000 women of
childbearing age (15-44 or 49 year old )mid year population.
General marital fertility rate (GMFR): number of live births per 1000 women
in reproductive age group(15-44 or 49) in a given year.
Age specific fertility rate (ASFR):number of live births in a year to 1000
women in any specified age group.
Total fertility rate (TFR):number of children a woman would have if she were
to pass through her reproductive years bearing children at the same rates as
the women now in each group. (it give approx magnitude of “completed
family size”).
Net reproduction rate (NRR): number of daughters a newborn girl will bear
during her lifetime assuming fixed age specific fertility and mortality rates.(it is
a demographic indicator.NRR 1 is equivalent to attaining approx 2 child norm.)

19. India is the second most populous country in the
world, with over 1.277 billion people (2015), more
than a sixth of the world's population.
Already containing 17.5% of the world's population,
India is projected to be the world's most populous
country by 2022, surpassing China, its population
reaching 1.6 billion by 2050.
(source
:
"India's
population 'to be biggest' in the planet". BBC News. 18 August 2004. Retrieved 2011-
09-24. .
: US Census Bureau, Demographic Internet Staff. "United States Census
Bureau - International Data Base (IDB)". Census.gov. Retrieved 2011-09-24.)
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA

20. India occupies 2.4% of the world’s land area but
supports over 17.5% of the world’s population.
At the 2001 census 72.2% of the population lived
in villages and the remaining 27.8% lived in towns
and urban areas.
Uttar Pradesh is most populous state in India followed
by Maharashtra and Bihar with 16.46% of total population
of India(2011) Maharashtra 9.29 % and Bihar 8.58%
WORLD INDIA
POPULATION 7238 Million (2014)1210 million (2011)
CBR 19.9/1000 Population (2012) 21.4 (2014)
CDR 8.37 (2011)7.0 (2014)
GROWTH RATE 1.17% (2014)1.64% (2011)
LITERACY RATE 82% (2007)74.4% (2011)
World vs. India

21. Demographic trends in India
Demographic indicator
Age & sex composition
Sex ratio
Dependency ratio
Density of population
Urbanization
Family size
Literacy & education
Life expectancy
Demographic indicator
These indicator help in - identification of that area which need policy or
programmed intervention.
-setting near & far term goals & deciding priorities.
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATOR
POPULATION STATISTIC VITAL STATISTIC
Population size
Sex ratio
Population density
Dependency ratio

Birth rate
Life expectancy at birth
Mortality rate
Fertility rate

22. AGE &SEX COMPOSITION
0–14 years: (30.8% ); male: 188,208,196, female:171,356,024 (Male > female)
15–64 years: (64.3%); male: 386,432,921, female:364,215,759
65+ years: (4.9%); male: 27,258,259, female: 30,031,289 (female >male)
Médian âge
25.1 years
Proportion of population below 14 showing decline whereas population of elderly
increasing
AGE PYRAMIDS
A population pyramid tells us what portion of a population are within a
given age cohort.
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
male female
4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4

23. Population pyramids can also tell us what stage of development a country is at.
Early Expanding
•Wide base (lots of young children)
and a very narrow top (few old
people).
•Very high birth rate and death rate
(short life expectancy).
•Reasons could include poor health
care, lack of family planning, need
for children as workers.
• Corresponds to stage 1 – 2 of DTM
Expanding
·Slightly narrower base than early expanding and a little wider in the middle
and older ages.
·Birth rate still high but decreasing slightly and death rate decreasing.
·Reasons for the change from early expanding could include better medical
care, improved diet and better hygiene.
·Roughly corresponds with stage 3 of the demographic transition model.

24. Stable:
·Bottom part of pyramid is close to a vertical line.
·Birth rate falls while death rate also falls and they are in balance
·Reasons could include better health care, improved family planning, better
economic conditions.
·Roughly corresponds with stage 4 of the demographic transition model
Contracting:
·Bottom part of pyramid narrower than the middle and continually getting
narrower.
·Birth rate continues to fall while the death rate continues to decrease.
·Reasons could include more women working, high cost of child rearing,
small families encouraged by the state.
·Examples: Germany/ Japan.
·Roughly corresponds with stage 5 of the demographic transition model.

25. Male to female sex ratio for India, based on its official census data, from 1941
through 2011.(source:“Sex Composition of the Population”, Office of Registrar General and Census
Commissioner of India, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India (2013). )
SEX RATIO
“Number of females per 1000 males”

26.  Natural sex ratio at birth =950 (estimated)
( it can be effected by sex selection at birth )
SEX RATIO
‘number of female per 1000 male’
Sex ratio in India (census 2011)…. 940
rural……………………947
urban………………….926
Child sex ratio (0-6 year ) : no. of female child per 1000 male child (in 0-6years age)
: CSR in India (2011)…..914 (highly unfavorable)
sex ratio in India adverse to women & also declining
female deficit syndrome has social implications
*highest sex ratio Kerala (1084) lowest Haryana ( 877)
Sex ratio in Uttar Pradesh = 908. (rural 914 ,urban 883 ).
Low sex ratio indicate strong male child preference & its consequence is gender
inequality ,female infanticide / feticide & neglect of child girl.

27. DEPENDANCY RATIO
Dependent age group ---- >65 & <15 year
Economic productive group ---- 15-64 year
the proportion of persons above 65 yrs of age and children below 15 yrs of age are
considered to be dependent on economically productive age group (15-64 years)
Total dependency ratio* = -------------------------------------------------------------x 100
Children ( 0-14 years) + population >65 years
Population 15 -64 years
* Also k/a societal dependency ratio.
Demographic bonus
Period when the dependency ratio in a population declines because of decline in fertility,
Until it starts to rise again because of increasing longitivity.
It gives push to development.
Demographic burden
The increase in total dependency ratio during any period of time .
Mostly Caused by increased old age dependency ratio.
This is unavoidable consequence of demographic transition, country has to face
problem sooner or later.

28. 28
Population density
“number of person , living per sq. kilometer” (census of India)
Current trends in population density in India ---- RISE
Census 2011 …….total population in India :1,210 million
rural :833.1 million (68.84 %)
urban :377.1 million (31.80 %)
Population density…..382 (person per sq. km.) (census 2011)
Number of states/union territories---35
Numbers of distt.------640
Number of villages----6.41 lacs
* highest population : Uttar Pradesh (199 million);with population density(828).
:highest population density Delhi(11,297)
Urbanization
urban population : number of persons residing in urban localities.
“TOWNS”--- Places with municipal corp. , municipal area committee , town
committee , notified area or cantonment board.
“all places having 5000 or more inhabitants ,a density of not less than 1000
persons per sq. mile or 390 per sq. km. , pronounced urban characteristics and at
least ¾ of adult male population employed in pursuits other than agriculture.”

29. 29
Rise in urban population
is due to natural growth
(birth) & migration from
village because of
employment , better
living conditions,
education ,health facility ,
transport ,entertainment
etc.
In India : major
population is rural and
their main occupation is
agriculture.

30. 30
FAMILY SIZE
In general family size represent : total number of person in a family.
Demographically: total number of children a woman has born at a point of time
completed family size :total number of children borne by a woman during her child
bearing age (15 – 45 years)*

Total fertility rate gives approx. magnitude of completed family size.
Long term demographic goal is net reproduction rate (NRR) = 1 ,**
which means “ 2 child family norm”.
NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR) : “no of daughters a newborn girl
will bear during her lifetime , assuming fixed age specific fertility and
mortality rates”
Family size depends on duration of marriage
‐

‐
education of couple

‐
no. of live births and living children

‐
preference of male children

‐
desired family size.
*child bearing age gen. assumed in between 15 and 45 years.
**NRR=1 each woman will reproduce exactly 1 girl.

31. Literacy and education
 education is crucial element of economic and social development
Literacy is generally associated with modernization
‐

‐
urbanization

‐
industrialization

‐
communication and

‐
commerce
literate the one above 7 years of age and can read and write
‐
with understanding in any Indian language
there is major improvement in literacy status in India.•
 government of India has made education compulsory up to the age of
14 years in the country.
Literacy rate(India)
74% (age 7 and above, in 2011)
81.4% (total population, age 15-25, in 2006)
82% male ,65% female
Maximum Kerala 92% , least Bihar 64%
Uttar Pradesh 69.72 (male 79.24 ,female 59.26)

33. LIFE EXPECTANCY
is the “average number of years which a person may expect to live”
Age specific life expectancy : life expectancy at a given age is average number of
years which a person of that age may expect to live.
 It is one of the best indicator for a country to measure it development
&health status of its population.
Life expectancy :Female >male
*in India life expectancy of female is almost same male.



Life expectancy at birth in India
Total population : 65.8 years (source: UN Human Development Report ,2013 )

34. Few key findings (demographic) of NFHS-3
(INDIA-2005-2006)
TFR=2.68.
Literacy rate: male 83% , female 59%
Population composition-
0-14 years-----34.9%
15-49years----49.5
50-59years ---7.1%
60 or more ---8.5%
Findings of SRS bulletin (2013)
Crude birth rate =21.6/ 1000 mid year population
Crude death rate =7/ 1000 mid year population
natural growth rate =14.5/ 1000 mid year population
Infant mortality rate =42/1000 live birth
Net reproduction rate =1.14

35. FERTILITY / NATALITY
Fertility means actual bearing of children
A woman reproductive period is roughly from 15 -45 years .( 30 years)
Fertility depend upon
1.Age at marriage :
if age at marriage is <18-----more children.
>18 (20-21)----no. of birth decreases by 20 – 30 %
Sarada act (1929) was enacted forbidding the child marriage.
child marriage restraint act----- it raises legal age for marriage from 15 to 18 for girls
(1978) 18 to 21 for boys
2. Duration of married life:
With in 1-5 years of marriage ……. 10 – 20 % of all birth
5-15 years ……. 50-55 %
After 25 years …….. Very few
*family planning effort at initial few period of marriage can achieve desired result
3. Spacing in children : postponement of birth by 1 year decline fertility
accordingly
4. Education : fertility is in inverse association to education .
:Education provides knowledge , increased exposure to information
and Media , build skill, increase power in décision making.

36. 5.Economic status :
fertility is inversely proportional to economic status .
6. Cast & religion :
fertility in Muslim (TFR 3.09) > Hindu (2.65) > Christians (2.35)
Among Hindus lower caste have higher fertility than upper caste

7. Nutrition
‐
well fed societies have low fertility
‐
8. Family planning
‐
key factor in declining fertility
9. others
‐
no. of physical, biological, social and cultural factors play role

37. "India set to overtake China as world's most populated country after
adding 180m people in a decade". Daily Mail (London). 31 March 2011.
"India's population 'to be biggest' in the planet". BBC News. 18
August 2004. Retrieved 2011-09-24.
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