Dr RS Paroda ppt for FSII Leadership Talk Episode 1.pptx

Leadership talk by Dr R S Paroda

1. Innovations and Transformation of Agri-Food Systems – An Agenda for Amrit Kaal (2047) Raj Paroda Chairman Trust for Advancement of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS) Former Director General, ICAR and Secretary, DARE, Govt. of India

2. Demographic Pressure on Agri-food Systems Global: 2050 - 9.8 Billion Poverty: 800 million people + 157 since Covid Needing: 56% more food & land 165-600 m ha ? India : 2023 - 1.44 million India surpassed China last year Poverty: 16.4% (about 195 million) Food grain requirement by 2030 : 50 mt (6 mt/year) Out of Box Options: Cut on food waste, Rethink on meat, Improve production efficiency, Regenerative agriculture - One Health

3. Indian Agriculture: Now and in 2047 Parameter 2023 2047 1. Food grain production (Mt) 330 520 2. Fruit production (Mt) 112 244 3. Vegetable production (Mt) 207 405 4. Nutri - coarse cereals (Mt) 51 74 5. Milk availability (kg/day) 0.4 1.0 6. Farm mechanization (%) 47 75 7. Post-harvest losses (%) 15 10 8. Water use efficiency (%) 40 60 9. Nitrogen use efficiency (%) 35 50 10. Agri-export (% of world) 2.5 5.0 NITI - NIAP, 2024

4. Major Challenges

5. Agriculture for Viksit Bharat RS Paroda Former President NAAS and Chairman, TAAS

6. India’s Goals A developed nation by 2047 5 trillion economy by 2030 (1 trillion from agriculture) Atmanirbhar Bharat ( reducing import on pulses, oilseeds and fertilisers ) Local to global (capturing agri -export potential)

7. From Bengal Famine to Bagging Bowl status to an era of Self Sufficiency 146 million farm holdings 86% farmers are smallholders (with < 2 ha) Agriculture contributes 15-17% of GVA Agriculture sector sustains > 50% population Source: ( MoAFW 2018-19) (1crore = 10 million) Indian Context

8. Impact of Green, White, Blue & Rainbow Revolutions Six and half fold increase in foodgrain production (50 mt – 331 mt) Horticulture production > 351 mt Milk production from 20 mt - 230 mt Fish production: < 1 mt – 16.2 mt Export > 20 mt of food grains (Rice & Wheat) Reduction in poverty (From 70% - 11.4%) Food stock : 97 mt in June, 2020 All these were science led

9. INDIAN AGRI-PRODUCE Largest Producer Milk | Pulses |Tea Spices | Jute |Banana 2nd Largest Producer Wheat | Rice | Fruits Vegetable |Sugarcane Among top 7 global exporters Export of US$ 55 billion (2022-23) By 2030, be among first five exporters

10. Major Challenges

11. No Poverty, Zero Hunger, Climate Action and Life on Land Economic Access to Food – around 1 5 0 million (11%) below poverty In India, 40 million children below 5 years are malnourished     “The Future We Want”

12. Meeting SDG by 2030 INDIA No Poverty: - Currently: 16.4 % - 195 million Zero Hunger: - Over 46% undernourished children below 5 yrs (WHO) For meeting SDG at the global level, India must achieve on priority – time left is short?

13. Paris Agreement on Climate Change (Global temperature not > 1.5 degree C) 20/20/20 Targets ; Effective since November, 2016 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC ) 1. Reduction in Emission intensity: Target - 35% - on track 2. Clen energy by non-fossil fuel sources: Target - 40% - on track 3. Additional carbon sink (Forest) Target - 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent Options : 1. Forest : From 25 to 33% ? ? 2. Agriculture : CA and Agro -forestry COP 26 Glasgow, November, 2021 Need to make 45% dryland area green Restore 26 m ha degraded lands

14. Covid 19 Pandemic Covid has drawn global attention towards Food, Nutrition and Environmental Security UN WFP – 157 m additional poor across 93 countries since 2019 UN Food Systems Summit 2021: Emphasis should now be on local food systems and regenerative agriculture

15. Second Generation Problems of Green Revolution Factor Productivity Decline Decline in land holding, Soil Health and Water Table Nutrient Imbalance & Use Efficiency Increased Incidence of Diseases and Pests Costly inputs Non availability of labour Reduced Farm Profitability Complacency that we have produced enough

16. WAY FORWARD

17. According to Dr Norman Borlaug Cradles of Success: -------------------------------------------------- Political Will Institutions and Human Resource Progressive Farmers Partnership (ex. CIMMYT & IRRI) Complacency for policy support and PPP ?

18. Indian NARS ICAR Institutes - 102 State Agricultural Universities - 71 (SAU and CAU) All India Coordinated & Network Projects - 89 Krishi Vigyan Kendras -720 National Seed Corporation State Seed Corporations - 17 State Seed Certification Agencies - 25 Private Seed Companies - 500 small and 50 big (including MNCs) Involved in Commercial Seed Production

19. Expenditure on R&D Stagnant around 8500 crore over last one decade Whereas Return : 10 -15 times

20. G20 MACS Strategy One Earth, One Family, one Future 1. Urgency to achieve SDG and Paris Agreement - time left is short 2. Greater trust in science, innovation and technology 3. Emphasis on food systems (production & post-production) 4. Building strong Partnerships – PPP; NARS-CGIAR 5 . Motivating and attracting youth in agriculture 6 . Knowledge Platforms (Think Tanks) for policy advocacy Funding for ARI4D : Minimum 1% of Agri. GDP (To be doubled)

21. Germplasm Improvement and Biotechnology Integrated Natural Resource Management Policy and Socio-economic Development Three Pillar Strategy A paradigm shift

22. Farmer First Increasing Farmers Income

23. H ealthy soils and good water Timely supply of inputs Good Knowledge and efficient extension services Access to credit at low interest rate Linking to markets for better income Respect and dignity in the society Suggested Strategy Farmer FIRST Approach Increased Support for Production, Processing and Marketing Harnessing science, technology and innovation through institutional reforms and enabling policies Farmer’s Security

24. Reorienting Towards Secure and Sustainable Agriculture Through: - Agricultural Diversification - Secondary Agriculture - Specialty Agriculture From Production to Post-production (value chain) Consolidating the gains through policy support

25. Paradigm shift from AR4D to ARI4D Scaling-up: Scaling Innovations

26. Digital Agriculture – use of ICT Income Inequality 1000 : 1 ? Access Equality 1:1 Disruptive Innovation : M-L-M

27. Paradigm Shift from AR4D to ARI4D Think Globally Act Locally Cradles of Success : Policy support Institutions Human Resource Partnership (PPT & Global)

28. Harness Science for New Gains ICT, BIG DATA BIO INFOR- MATICS CRISPR- CAS9 Farm Mechanization

29. Maize Production in USA SCALING HYBRID TECHNOLOGY Single Cross Maize Hybrids No SS hybrid due to policies till 2000 - New Seed Policy (1988) - PPVFRA in 2001 First Public bred hybrid in 2001 P roduction doubled till 2011 : 25 mt Production currently : 37.5 mt Productivity increased by 150 % (From 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha) Area : 9.0 m ha (under hybrids : 60% ) Global rank – 4 th in area (9 m ha) and 7 th in production Highest growth rate (>4%) among cereals for the last one decade

30. Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Intensification Area covered : 3.5 m ha under irrigated R-W system Potential area : 10 m ha Dryland Area : Almost 45% ? Globally : 200 m ha mainly in drylands

31. Scaling Innovations ICT for Knowledge Empowerment Hybrid Technology (maize, bajra, sorghum, rice) – From 50 to > 90 % coverage Biotechnology - GM crops ? (soybean, mustard, maize, brinjal) Conservation Agriculture (From 3.5 to >20 m ha) Protected Cultivation (expand area from 2.5 lakh ha to 0.5 m ha) - China has 2 m ha Micro-irrigation – From 6.0 to 10.0 m ha Bioenergy/Biofuel (use of sugar cane and maize (Ethanol admixing up to 20% permitted) Biofortified Crops (Quality protein maize, iron & zinc rich rice, iron rich bajra, zinc rich wheat)

32. Nutrient Use Efficiency only 30% : A Real Concern India is 2 nd largest producer Subsidy : 1.75 lakh crore

33. Shift Needed Towards Precision Farming Use of Decision Support Systems

34. Incentives in Place of Current Subsidies 1.For input use efficiency : fertilizer use on soil test basis, laser leveling, ferti -cum-seed drill, micro-irrigation, use of solar energy, 2. For environmental services: Crop diversification, use of legumes, Conservation Agriculture, agri -horticulture, agro -forestry, climate smart agriculture etc (Rs 10,000/acre/family up to a maximum of 10 acres)

35. 35 Key Ecosystem Services Sustainable Practices

36. Aggregate demand and supply projections 2047-48, million tons (Source: NITI Aayog 2023) Commodity Demand Supply (BAU) Supply (HYG) Surplus (BAU) Surplus (HYG) Rice 113 154 223 41 110 Wheat 120 160 187 40 67 Maize 109 80 107 - 29 - 2 Nutri-cereals 33 14 19 - 19 - 14 Cereals 381 409 538 28 157 Pulses 57 47 56 - 10 - 1 Food grains 437 457 594 20 157 Edible Oils 33 24 33 - 9 Sugar & products 45 50 51 5 6 Fruits 283 214 287 - 69 4 Vegetables 417 367 531 - 50 114 BAU is Business-as-usual scenario; HYG is high yield growth scenario. Demand projections are under high income growth

37. Aggregate demand and supply projections for animal based-food by 2047-48, million tons (Source: NITI Aayog 2023) Commodity Demand Supply (BAU) Supply (HYG) Surplus (BAU) Surplus (HYG) Egg 21 19 21 - 2 Meat 29 18 30 - 11 1 Fish 48 37 49 - 11 1 Milk 606 478 581 -128 -25 BAU is Business-as-usual scenario; HYG is high yield growth scenario. Demand projections are under high income growth

38. KEY SECTORS CROSS CUTTING AREAS SCALING UP: 1. Accelerated agricultural growth 2. Desired impact on farmers’ income Key areas to be addressed

39. A regulatory authority to ensure the quality of agricultural education Institutional Reforms

40. Revisiting the Initiatives Towards No Poverty & Zero Hunger Two National Acts: 1. MANREGA Act, 2005 (Guaranteed 100 days wage employment) Budget since last four years 2021-25 : 98,000 crore allotted but revised to 60,000 crores (Requirement : 2.71 lakh crore) 2. National Food Security Act, 2014 (To provide free 5kg foodgrains to 800 million people) Annual Budget: > Rs 2 lakh crore Other Programs: Antyodya Ann Yojna to very poor : 35 kg/family/month National Nutrition Mission (POSHAN Abhiyan) Mid-Day Meal Scheme (1995)

41. Need to monitor & reorient the existing missions Create targeted new missions: Crops: Maize, Pulses, oilseeds Fishery Livestock Conservation Agriculture Protected Cultivation Quality Seed and planting Material Digital agriculture Youth in Agriculture - MAYA Missions to be in Mission Mode

42. Agricultural Exports: Trends and Composition India, a net-exporting country in agriculture; trade expanded overtime due to policy facilitation, trade partnerships, strategic alliances, increasing production capacity coupled with international demand Commodity composition diversified, trade partners also expanded; cereals now occupy the maximum share, while share of cotton reduced drastically; share of high value commodities also expanded 2001 2022 Export Composition (%)

43. Link Farmers to market 90% smallholder farmers have lesser bargaining power Promote cooperative farming, contract farming, Farmer Producer Organizations Increase market efficiency by eliminating the Middlemen Strengthen E-NAM and popularize digital agri -marketing Invest in agri -market Infrastructure Incentives to invest in creating warehouses, cold storage, drones Ensure Market Access, Market Automation Globalisation for Export

44. Motivating & Attracting Youth in Agriculture (MAYA) To be Job Creator and not Job Seeker: - Youth (including women) as extension agents – Paid extension - Youth as input providers Youth as Entrepreneurs Institutional Backstopping Mantoring and hand holding Easy credit i

45. Policy Decisions Needed

46. Policy Decisions Needed on: ( Contd …)

47. India – 5 Trillion Economy Agriculture (20%) – 1 Trillion

48. We Must Coordinate Our Efforts on Reforms….

49. Finally, Agriculture for Our Food, Nutrition and Environmental Security

50. Paris Agreement on Climate Change (Global temperature not > 1.5 degree C) 20/20/20 Targets ; Effective since November, 2016 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC ) 1. Reduction in Emission intensity: Target - 35% - on track 2. Clen energy by non-fossil fuel sources: Target - 40% - on track 3. Additional carbon sink (Forest) Target - 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent Options : 1. Forest : From 25 to 33% ? ? 2. Agriculture : CA and Agro -forestry are the main optons COP 26 Glasgow, November, 2021 Need to make 45% dryland area green Need to r estore 26 m ha degraded land

51. Covid 19 Pandemic Covid has drawn global attention towards Food, Nutrition and Environmental Security UN WFP – 157 m additional poor across 93 countries since 2019 UN Food Systems Summit 2021: Emphasis should now be on local food systems and regenerative agriculture

52. G20 MACS Strategy One Earth, One Family, one Future 1. Urgency to achieve SDG and Paris Agreement - time left is short 2. Greater trust in science, innovation and technology 3. Emphasis on food systems (production & post-production) 4. Building strong Partnerships – PPP; NARS-CGIAR 5 . Motivating and attracting youth in agriculture 6 . A Knowledge Platform for decisions & policy advocacy 7. Funding for ARI4D : Minimum 1% of Agri. GDP

53. Initiatives and Options

54. Impact of Green, White, Blue & Rainbow Revolutions Six and half fold increase in foodgrain production (50 mt – 331 mt) Horticulture production > 351 mt Milk production from 20 mt - 230 mt Fish production: < 1 mt – 16.2 mt Export > 20 mt of food grains (Rice & Wheat) Reduction in poverty (From 70% - 11.4%) Food stock : 97 mt in June, 2020 All these were science led

55. Livestock Sector - Livestock Sector contributes 20.5% to Agricultural GDP India Ranks 1 st in Milk Production and Livestock Population Cattle (200 m) and Buffalo (100 m) Also in Beef Production (4.4 m mt) Beef export : 1.42 m mt India’s current export of Animal Products: over US $ 4 billion - Also, Third largest producer of eggs (13.0 billion) and Fifth largest producer of broiler meat (4.78 MT) - Our major concern: Average milk yield 3.0 kg/day

56. Blue Revolution Coastal Line : 7,500 km Export of 1.36 mt in 2021-22 : US $ 7.76 billion

57. INDIAN AGRI-PRODUCE Largest Producer Milk | Pulses |Tea Spices | Jute |Banana 2nd Largest Producer Wheat | Rice | Fruits Vegetable |Sugarcane Among top 7 global exporters Export of US$ 55 billion (2022-23) By 2030, be among first five agri -exporters

58. Green Revolution was Science-Led

59. Second Generation Problems of Green Revolution Factor Productivity Decline Decline in Soil Health and Water Table Nutrient Imbalance & Use Efficiency Increased Incidence of Diseases and Pests Costly inputs Non availability of labor – Need for Mechanization Reduced Farm Profitability Complacency

60. THE WAY FORWARD

61. Farmer First

62. H ealthy soils and good water Timely supply of inputs Good Knowledge and efficient extension services Access to credit at low interest rate Linking to markets for better income Respect and dignity in the society Suggested Strategy Farmer FIRST Approach Increased Support for Production, Processing and Marketing Harnessing science, technology and innovation through institutional reforms and enabling policies Farmer’s Security

63. Germplasm Improvement and Biotechnology Integrated Natural Resource Management Policy and Socio-economic Development Three Pillar Strategy A paradigm shift

64. Reorienting Towards Secure and Sustainable Agriculture Through: - Agricultural Diversification - Secondary Agriculture - Specialty Agriculture From Production to Post-production (value chain) Consolidating the gains do require enabling policies

65. Paradigm shift needed from AR4D to ARI4D Think Globally Act Locally Status of Innovation Patents Filed during 2022 China : 1.58 million USA : 0.50 million India : 55,718 thousand

66. Harnessing Science for New Gains ICT, BIG DATA BIO INFOR- MATICS CRISPR- CAS9 Farm Mechanization PPP and IP Protection ?

67. Genome Editing Gene silencing using Crisper- cas technology Crispr–cas (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats)  More precise and fewer safety concerns (SDN 1 & 2) Potato, when fried, reduced acrylamide formation Wheat that produces less gluten Soybeans whose oil resembles olive oil Corn and wheat for drought tolerance and other traits

68. Herbicide tolerant ( Ht ) direct seeded Basmati rice PB 1509-HT-Sprayed PB 1509-Sprayed PB 1509-Hand Weeded PB 1509 - AK Singh, IARI

69. Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Intensification Area covered : 3.5 m ha under irrigated R-W system Potential area : 10 m ha Dryland Area : Almost 45% ? Globally : 200 m ha mainly in drylands

70. Scaling Innovations ICT for Knowledge Empowerment Hybrid Technology (maize, bajra, sorghum, rice) – From 50 to > 90 % coverage Biotechnology - GM crops ? (soybean, mustard, maize, brinjal) Conservation Agriculture (From 3.5 to >20 m ha) Protected Cultivation (expand area from 2.5 lakh ha to 0.5 m ha) - China has 2 m ha Micro-irrigation – From 6.0 to 10.0 m ha Bioenergy/Biofuel (use of sugar cane and maize (Ethanol admixing up to 20% permitted) Biofortified Crops (Quality protein maize, iron & zinc rich rice, iron rich bajra, zinc rich wheat)

71. Shift Needed Towards Precision Farming Use of Decision Support Systems

72. 74 Key Ecosystem Services Sustainable Practices

73. Incentives in Place of Current Subsidies 1.For input use efficiency : fertilizer use on soil test basis, laser leveling, ferti -cum-seed drill, micro-irrigation, use of solar energy, 2. For environmental services: Crop diversification, use of legumes, Conservation Agriculture, agri -horticulture, agro -forestry, climate smart agriculture etc (Rs 10,000/acre/family up to a maximum of 10 acres)

74. KEY SECTORS CROSS CUTTING AREAS SCALING UP: 1. Accelerated agricultural growth 2. Desired impact on farmers’ income Key areas to be addressed

75. A regulatory authority to ensure the quality of agricultural education Institutional Reforms

76. Revisiting the Initiatives Towards No Poverty & Zero Hunger Two National Acts: 1. MANREGA Act, 2005 (Guaranteed 100 days wage employment) Budget since last four years 2021-25 : 98,000 crore allotted but revised to 60,000 crores (Requirement : 2.71 lakh crore) 2. National Food Security Act, 2014 (To provide free 5kg foodgrains to 800 million people) Annual Budget: > Rs 2 lakh crore Other Programs: Antyodya Ann Yojna to very poor : 35 kg/family/month National Nutrition Mission (POSHAN Abhiyan) Mid-Day Meal Scheme (1995)

77. Need to monitor & reorient the existing missions Create targeted new missions: Crops: Maize, Pulses, oilseeds Fishery Livestock Conservation Agriculture Protected Cultivation Quality Seed and planting Material Digital agriculture Youth in Agriculture - MAYA Missions to be in Mission Mode

78. Agricultural Exports: Trends and Composition India, a net-exporting country in agriculture; trade expanded overtime due to policy facilitation, trade partnerships, strategic alliances, increasing production capacity coupled with international demand Commodity composition diversified, trade partners also expanded; cereals now occupy the maximum share, while share of cotton reduced drastically; share of high value commodities also expanded 2001 2022 Export Composition (%)

79. Link Farmers to market 90% smallholder farmers have lesser bargaining power Promote cooperative farming, contract farming, Farmer Producer Organizations Increase market efficiency by eliminating the Middlemen Strengthen E-NAM and popularize digital agri -marketing Invest in agri -market Infrastructure Incentives to invest in creating warehouses, cold storage, drones Ensure Market Access, Market Automation Globalisation for Export

80. Motivating & Attracting Youth in Agriculture (MAYA) To be Job Creator and not Job Seeker: - Youth (including women) as extension agents – Paid extension - Youth as input providers Youth as Entrepreneurs Institutional Backstopping Montoring and hand holding Easy credit i

81. Policy Decisions Needed

82. Policy Decisions Needed on: ( Contd …)

83. Expenditure on R&D Stagnant around 8500 crore over last one decade Whereas Return : 10 -15 times

84. India – 5 Trillion Economy Agriculture (20%) – 1 Trillion

85. Maize Production in USA, China, India Russia SCALING HYBRID TECHNOLOGY Single Cross Maize Hybrids in India No such hybrid till 2000 - New Seed Policy (1988) - PPVFRA in 2001 First Public bred hybrid in 2001 P roduction doubled in one decade : 25 mt Production now : 37.5 mt (three times) Productivity increased by 150 % (From 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha) Area : 9.0 m ha (under hybrids : 60% ) Global rank – 4 th in area (9 m ha) and 7 th in production Highest growth rate among cereals > 4.0% Maize Area, Production, Yield in India

86. 1964: Research on hybrid rice started 1970: A wild rice with aborted pollen was identified 1974: First set of hybrids was developed 1976: Hybrid rice released to the farmers In 1966: ~ 15 mha (53%) under hybrid rice gave 15 mt extra production Historical Development Hybrid Rice in China Prof. Yuan Longping (Father of Hybrid Rice) In India : Only 3.84 m ha in last 20 yrs

87. Bt Cotton - A Success Story The area under Bt cotton has increased to 12.0 m ha The cotton production almost doubled from 2.3 m tons to 4.9 m tons Pesticide consumption got reduced to 40 % Income of 5 million cotton farmers increased three fold Export of cotton fetching US $ > 4.0 billion last year

88. GM Crops : 67 Countries; Area >200 m ha (Crops: Maize, Soybean, Mustard, Cotton) Issues: An unfortunate Global Divide? How much scientific evidence will be enough? - Policy Logjam? - Regulatory System – How robust? - Informed knowledge for Public Awareness

89. UN International Year of Millets - Value Chain

90. Lentil Rice Wheat Maize Pearl Millet Sorghum Cassava Orange Sweetpotato Potato Banana Plantain Beans Cowpea Biofortified crops released in 30 countries

91. Other Innovations Conservation Agriculture (3.5 to 20 m ha) Micro-irrigation – From 6 to 10 m - Protected Cultivation (Area from 50,000 ha to 0.5 m ha) Bioenergy/Biofuel (sugar cane and maize – use up to 20%) Bio-fertilizers & Bio-pesticides

92. Conservation Agriculture – A Game Changer Area covered : 3.5 m ha under irrigated R-W system Potential area : 10 m ha Dryland Area : Almost 45% ? Globally : 200 m ha mainly in drylands

93. Benefits of Conservation Agriculture: Meta analysis from South Asia (Jat et al., 2020) 5-12% System Yield (increased) 20-27% Profitability (increased) 10-30 % in WUE (increased) 46-62% Energy (saving) 26-44% Labor (saving) 12-33% reduction in pollution It saves biodiversity, increases soil organic matter, ensures environmental safety, minimizes abiotic stresses etc. Towards Regenerative Agriculture

94. How much evidence enough for Scaling CA ? Building resilient system in drylands - through CA

95. Nutrient Use Efficiency: A Real Concern India - Only around 30 %

96. Shift Needed Towards Precision Farming Use of Decision Support Systems

97. Global fertilizer use reaching peak (around 220 mt )

98. GAP for Climate Smart Agriculture Rain-water harvesting + Solar energy + sub-surface fertigation + CA

99. Recommendations Crop use planning for diversification Revisit price policy Compensation Move towards nutrition security Invest in infrastructure and value chains for perishable commodities Promote millet consumption and production and value addition Enhance pulses production Reduce consumption of edible oils Establish seed hubs for quality seeds Rejuvenation of soil and water health Promote climate-resilient technologies and practices Improve credit flow for capital investment Invest in agricultural research: livestock, fisheries and natural resources

100. We Must Coordinate Our Efforts on Reforms….

101. Finally, Agriculture for Food, Nutrition and Environmental Security

102. Changing food consumption pattern Increasing spending towards consumption expenditure, but allocation of household budget on food is declining over the years Changing consumer preferences from staple to high value food commodities. Rising consumer preferences towards high value food products have become more pronounced in the recent years.

103. Commodity High Income Growth Scenario (7%) High Income Growth Scenario (8%) 2019-20 2025-26 2030-31 2035-36 2040-41 2047-48 CGR # 2025-26 2030-31 2035-36 2040-41 2047-48 CGR # Foodgrains 277 305 329 359 379 415 1.51 307 334 370 393 437 1.70 Cereals 251 273 293 318 334 363 1.38 275 296 326 344 381 1.55 Rice 103 107 109 111 112 114 0.37 106 109 110 112 113 0.34 Wheat 100 107 112 115 118 119 0.67 107 112 116 119 120 0.71 Nutri-cereals 19 20 22 24 27 31 1.79 20 22 25 28 33 2.09 Maize 27 37 47 65 73 94 4.75 39 50 72 82 109 5.32 Pulses 26 32 36 41 46 52 2.60 32 38 43 49 57 2.93 Eggs 5.0 7 9 11 14 18 4.75 7 10 12 16 21 5.41 Meat 7 9 12 15 19 24 4.75 10 13 17 21 29 5.42 Fish 12 16 21 26 32 41 4.70 17 22 29 36 48 5.36 Milk 186 249 308 371 436 527 3.92 258 329 406 489 606 4.47 Vegetables 199 242 277 312 345 385 2.48 247 288 329 368 417 2.78 Fruits 108 139 166 193 220 252 3.20 144 176 209 242 283 3.64 Sugar& prodts 34 37 40 42 43 45 1.08 38 40 42 44 45 1.13 Edible oil 22 25 28 29 31 32 1.32 26 28 30 32 33 1.47 Overall 850 1030 1189 1358 1519 1739 2.69 1054 1240 1444 1641 1921 3.07 Projected total food demand under HIG scenario Million tonnes # Compound growth rate between 2019-20 and 2047-48

104. Commodity 2019-20 2025-26 2030-31 2035-36 2040-41 2047-48 CGR # Foodgrains 277 303 326 353 371 402 1.39 Cereals 251 272 290 313 327 353 1.27 Rice 103 107 110 111 113 114 0.40 Wheat 100 106 111 115 117 119 0.65 Nutri-cereals* 19 20 22 23 26 29 1.60 Maize 27 36 45 60 67 86 4.39 Pulses 26 31 35 40 44 49 2.38 Eggs 5.0 7 8 10 12 16 4.32 Meat 7 9 12 14 17 21 4.31 Fish 12 16 20 24 29 37 4.27 Milk 186 243 294 349 405 480 3.56 Vegetables 199 238 270 301 330 365 2.28 Fruits 108 136 160 184 206 233 2.90 Sugar & products 34 37 39 41 43 44 1.05 Edible oil 22 25 27 29 30 31 1.23 Overall 850 1014 1157 1305 1445 1630 2.44 Projected total food demand under BAU (6.34%) scenario # Compound growth rate between 2019-20 and 2047-48 * Projection using positive expenditure elasticities Million tonnes

105. India's prominence in the global market steadily gaining momentum, Focus on “market intelligence” tailored for specific sectors and commodities Traceability of value chains and supply chains Focus on a "green supply chain" and diversification of rice for alternative uses due to mounting virtual water exports triggered by rice exports Food safety critical in sustaining exports—pesticide residues, microbial contaminations, heavy metals, the use of unsafe colors or additives, inappropriate labeling or misbranding, filth, insanitary conditions or controls, and more. Sensitization and capacity building at different stages of the value chain to sustain the export trajectory.  Particular 2022 2025 2030 2035 2047 Surplus (Supply-Demand) 19 26 35 39 40 Exports @ BAU Scenario (Projected with NNETAR (9,6,1)) 22.2 20.2 27.9 29.5 30.07 Existing and target potential (%) 55  60 65 70 75 Expected level of exports (Projected exports+extra potential tapped)   22.5 32.5 36.4 39.3 Further scope for exports   3.5 2.5 2.6 0.7 Potential tapped with additional surplus (%)—As % of maximum potential as of 2022 (46.15 million tonnes)   56.3 75.9 84.5 86.7 Rice exports (Million Tonnes)  Particular 2022 2025 2030 2035 2047 Surplus (Supply-Demand) 14 11 20 27 42 Exports @ BAU Scenario (Projected with NNETAR 11,5,1)) 6.5 1.44 3.27 1.7 4.5 Existing and target potential (%) 61  66 71 76 81 Expected level of exports (Projected exports+extra potential tapped)   2.0 4.3 3.3 6.6 Further scope for exports   9.0 15.7 23.7 35.4 Potential tapped with additional surplus (%)—As % of maximum potential as of 2022 (10.6 million tonnes)   103.4 188.0 253.8 394.8 Wheat exports (Million Tonnes) Dairy Products, milk equivalent (Million Tonnes) Bovine meat exports (million tonnes)

106. Indian Institute of Seed Science (Role in Breeder Seed Production & Seed Technology Research) AICRP ICAR Seed Project Breeder seed production as per DAC&FW indents (41 centres ) Seed technology research (24 Centres ) Capacity building Quality Foundation/Certified seed production (63 Centres ) Strengthening of seed infrastructure To promote seed entrepreneurship Capacity building

107. Trend in Breeder Seed Production (> Four Times Increase in 22 Years) Source: IISS, Mau Source: IISS, Mau

108. Seed Related Legislations/Policies: Seed Act, 1966 Compulsory labeling and voluntary certification Focus on seed quality regulation To cover notified crops and varieties Seed Control Order, 1983 License for selling, exporting and importing seeds Powers to State Governments to regulate seed trade under EC Act, 1955 New Policy on Seed Development, 1988 Encouraging commercial seed production by private sector Import of vegetable and flower seeds under OGL Time-bound Plant quarantine/Post entry quarantine system FDI permitted in seed sector since 1987 Seed Bill 2004 (to be legislated) Compulsory registration of seed offered for sale Compulsory disclosure of performance National Seed Registry National Commission on Agriculture (1971) - Role of private seed sector

109. Indian Seed System Broad Categories Formal system Informal system Farmer saved seeds Public Sector NSC SSCs ICAR/SAU’s Private Sector Seed companies Retailers MIXED

110. Private Seed Sector in India Around 550 Seed Companies 15 % - R&D, Production and Marketing 20 % - Production and Marketing 65 % - Marketing