ECN138 (Int'l Biz. & Trade) – Of RCEP and Dependency Theory

ReidManares 7 views 35 slides Oct 17, 2025
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About This Presentation

Hello! I created this Canva presentation as a requirement in 'International Business and Trade' during the A.Y. 2023–2024.

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Slide Content

SELAMAT PAGI
អរុណ​សួស្តី
ARUN SUŎSTEI
ສະ​ບາຍ​ດີ​ຕອນ​ເຊົ້າ!
SABAIDI TONSAO
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MIN-GALA NANNETKINBA
好早起
HÓ TSÁKHÍ
CHÀO BUỔI SÁNG
MAGANDANG UMAGA
สวัสดีตอนบ่าย
SAWATDI TONCHAO
早上好
ZǍOSHANG HǍO
お早うございます
OHAYŌGOZAIMASU
안녕하세요
ANNYEONGHASEYO
GOOD MORNING

OF REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE
ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP)
AND DEPENDENCY THEORY
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the Course of International Business & Trade
MANARES, REID CHRYSLER
24 July 2024

A quote from Frédéric Bastiat:
Everyone wants to live at the expense
of the State. They forget that the State
lives at the expense of everyone.
In his 1848 essay “The State”, written when socialist governments
were making big promises to the French people, he sarcastically
offered his own definition of what the state was: “L’État,
c’est la grande fiction à travers laquelle Tout Le Monde
s’efforce de vivre aux dépens de Tout Le Monde.”

Recapitulation:Tariff
It is a tax imposed by a country on imports
(or exports) so as to increase the price of
foreign (or domestic) goods, raise national
revenue, and protect domestic industries
from cheap foreign substitutes.Comp. Advantage
It is the economic ability of a country to
produce a particular good or service more
easily or cheaply than another country,
usually its trading partner, resulting in a
lower opportunity cost.International Trade
It is the voluntary exchange of goods or
services between economic actors across
different nations; it is driven by demand
and can take the form of either exports or
imports.Protectionism
It is the economic policy of protecting
domestic firms from foreign competition
by imposing import (or export) restrictions,
such as tariffs, duties, and quotas, in order
to improve domestic economic activity.Balance of Trade
It is the difference between the value of a
country's exports and imports over a given
time period; it is the largest component of
the balance of payments and indicates
either a trade surplus or a trade deficit.

WHAT IS A
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT?
WHAT IS A
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT?

What is a free trade agreement?
It is a pact between two or more trading partners
to agree on certain obligations affecting trade in
goods and services, investor protection, etc.
A trading partner can be
a country or territory (e.g., Viet Nam, Hong Kong),
a free trade area (e.g., Assn. of SE Asian Nations),
a customs union (e.g., East African Community),
a single market (e.g., Mercado Común del Sur),
or an economic union (e.g., European Union).
Its main goal is to reduce trade barriers and enhance
the rule of law in partner countries.
It helps a country’s corporate sector enter and compete
more easily in the global marketplace.
By fostering a predictable and transparent trading
environment, exports become faster and cheaper.

USMCA
PARLACEN
CAN
MERCOSUR
CARICOM
EFTA
EU
AMU
ECOWAS
ECCAS
IGAD
SADC
GCC
SAARC
CIS
ASEAN
PIF

WHAT IS THE
REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE
ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP?
WHAT IS THE
REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE
ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP?

What is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership?
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam
Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) Member States
ASEAN Trading Partners
Australia, Japan, China, Korea, New Zealand
RCEP is the world’s largest free trade agreement, rivaling EU and USMCA.
It was signed on 15 November 2020 and entered into force on 1 January 2022.
It aims to strengthen economic linkages, enhance trade, and minimize development gaps.
It covers a market of 2.2 billion people (almost one-third of global population).
It represents US$26.2 trillion of economic output (about 29.72% of global GDP).

ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 RCEP

WHAT IS RAÚL PREBISCH’S
DEPENDENCY THEORY?
WHAT IS RAÚL PREBISCH’S
DEPENDENCY THEORY?

What is Dependency Theory?
It is a school of thought that explains the economic
underdevelopment of certain nations by emphasizing
the putative constraints imposed by the global order.
First proposed by Argentine economist Raúl Prebisch,
it gained prominence in the ’60s as scholars sought to
explain the socioeconomic disparity in Latin America.
It suggests that countries are underdeveloped due to
their “peripheral” position in the world economy, that
“core” nations purposefully maintain their dependency.
Here is how it works:
Periphery countries provide raw materials and labor.
Core countries obtain these resources at very low prices.
Core countries transform the resources into finished goods.
Periphery countries buy back the finished goods at high prices.
High prices prevent them from increasing their productive capacity.
The cycle repeats.

In spite of the RCEP’s goal of economic integration
and cooperation, it may inadvertently reinforce
patterns of dependency and inequality, thereby
highlighting the relevance of Dependency Theory.

DOES THE RCEP TRULY
LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD?
STRENGTHS; DRAWBACKS
DOES THE RCEP TRULY
LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD?
STRENGTHS; DRAWBACKS

What are the RCEP’s strengths?
Closer
Economic Ties
More Foreign
Direct Investments
Improved
Market Access
Reduced
Trade Barriers
Support
for MSMEs

What are the RCEP’s drawbacks?
Limited Environmental
Protections
More Pressure
on Farmers
Limited Labor
Protections
Reduced Tariffs and
Nontrade Barriers
Lack of
Transparency

WILL THE RCEP BE JUST
ANOTHER TRADE AGREEMENT?
PROSPECTS; IMPLICATIONS
WILL THE RCEP BE JUST
ANOTHER TRADE AGREEMENT?
PROSPECTS; IMPLICATIONS

Simulation Results: RCEP’s Regional Effects, % Change from Baseline
Cororaton, C. (2016). Potential effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine economy. EconStor. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/173551

ASEAN
MEMBER STATE
CHANGE IN BoT
(IN MILLION US$)
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE
Malaysia -4,095 -36.5%
Cambodia -2,318 -17.3%
Thailand -671 -22.5%
Myanmar -479 -27.7%
Viet Nam -502 -1.0%
Philippines -264 -1.1%
Indonesia -152 -1.6%
Singapore -80 -0.2%
Lao PDR -16 -2.6%
Brunei Darussalam 4 0.1%
ASEAN
TRADING PARTNER
CHANGE IN BoT
(IN MILLION US$)
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE
China -4,851 -3.5%
Korea -2,904 -8.0%
Japan 11,995 98.6%
New Zealand 263 5.6%
Australia 976 1.0%
For a periphery country, an improving balance of trade
(i.e., trade surplus) could indicate reduced dependency
on core countries and a greater ability to invest in
domestic industries.
Conversely, a worsening balance of trade (i.e., trade
deficit) could indicate deepened dependency on core
countries, thus hindering domestic investment.
The study simulates RCEP’s potential impact on balances of
trade, using 2019 data as a baseline. The results are
projections of changes owing to tariff liberalization, taking
into account sensitive lists and tariff rate quotas.
Banga, R., Gallagher, K. & Sharma, P. (2021). RCEP: Goods Market Access Implications for ASEAN.
In Boston University Global Development Policy Center. https://www.bu.edu/gdp/files/2021/03/GEGI_WP_045_FIN.pdf

INDICATOR
FREE ON BOARD VALUE (IN MILLION US$)
YEAR-ON-YEAR
GROWTH
(MAR ‘23–’24)
MAR 2023 JAN 2024 FEB 2024 MAR 2024 APR 2024 MAY 2024
Total Trade 18,245.43 16,093.03 15,459.25 15,440.79 17,192.78 17,258.77 -15.4%
Balance
of Trade
-5,018.18 -4,221.13 -3,647.54 -3,180.62 -4,760.94 -4,601.00 -36.6%
Exports 6,613.63 5,935.95 5,905.85 6,130.08 6,215.92 6,328.88 -7.3%
Imports 11,631.81 10,157.08 9,553.40 9,310.70 10,976.86 10,929.88 -20.0%
Summary of External Trade Performance in the Philippines (March 2024)
VULNERABILITY TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS
LIMITED ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
DECREASE IN DOMESTIC DEMAND
DECLINE IN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
The Philippines joined the RCEP
on 21 February 2023. The Senate
voted 20-1-1, with only Sen. Risa
Hontiveros against the treaty;
Sen. Imee Marcos abstained.
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics May 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, July 10). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics April 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, June 11). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684063918
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics March 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, May 8). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684063536
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics February 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, April 11). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684062780
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics January 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, March 12). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684062517
WEAK INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY

INDICATOR
FREE ON BOARD VALUE (IN MILLION US$)
YEAR-ON-YEAR
GROWTH
(MAY ‘23–’24)
MAY 2023 JAN 2024 FEB 2024 MAR 2024 APR 2024 MAY 2024
Total Trade 17,462.87 16,093.03 15,459.25 15,440.79 17,192.78 17,258.77 -1.2%
Balance
of Trade
-4,402.37 -4,221.13 -3,647.54 -3,180.62 -4,760.94 -4,601.00 4.5%
Exports 6,530.25 5,935.95 5,905.85 6,130.08 6,215.92 6,328.88 -3.1%
Imports 10,932.62 10,157.08 9,553.40 9,310.70 10,976.86 10,929.88 -0.03%
Summary of External Trade Performance in the Philippines (Most Recent)
VULNERABILITY TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS
LIMITED DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CAPACITY
DECREASE IN DOMESTIC & FOREIGN DEMAND
DECLINING EXPORTS, STAGNANT IMPORTS
The Philippines joined the RCEP
on 21 February 2023. The Senate
voted 20-1-1, with only Sen. Risa
Hontiveros against the treaty;
Sen. Imee Marcos abstained.
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics May 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, July 10). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics April 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, June 11). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684063918
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics March 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, May 8). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684063536
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics February 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, April 11). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684062780
Highlights of the Philippine Export and Import Statistics January 2024
(Preliminary). (2024, March 12). Philippine Statistics Authority.
https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/export-import/monthly/node/1684062517
WEAK INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY

TRADING PARTNER
IN 2023
TRADE DEFICIT
(IN BILLION US$)
China (PRC) -20.3
Indonesia -11.5
Korea -5.4
Thailand -5.3
Malaysia -4.1
Singapore -3.9
Australia -3.4
Viet Nam -3.3
Saudi Arabia -2.32
China (ROC) -2.3
TRADING PARTNER
IN 2023
TRADE SURPLUS
(IN BILLION US$)
Hong Kong SAR 6.7
Netherlands 2.5
United States 2.3
Mexico 0.51
Germany 0.21
Switzerland 0.17
Hungary 0.1
Poland 0.08
Bulgaria 0.048
Czechia 0.045
ASEAN+ YIELDED EXISTING BENEFITS
RCEP BROUGHT MARGINAL BENEFITS
ASEAN’S “BUYER OF LAST RESORT”
PHILIPPINES IS THE NET IMPORTER

TRADING PARTNER
AS OF MAY 2024
FOB VALUE, IMPORTS
(IN BILLION US$)
China (PRC) 2,734.69
Korea 989.60
Indonesia 972.15
United States 748.19
Thailand 707.44
Japan 679.51
Malaysia 575.64
Singapore 518.53
Viet Nam 501.70
China (ROC) 293.45
TRADING PARTNER
AS OF MAY 2024
FOB VALUE, EXPORTS
(IN BILLION US$)
United States 1,076.35
Hong Kong SAR 904.79
Japan 882.70
China (PRC) 847.12
Thailand 267.14
China (ROC) 266.57
Korea 265.23
Netherlands 257.52
Singapore 238.77
Germany 216.68
ALSO RCEP’S “BUYER OF LAST RESORT”
JAPAN’S ENTRÉE VIS-À-VIS RCEP
STILL ASEAN’S “BUYER OF LAST RESORT”
PHILIPPINES IS STILL A NET IMPORTER

CAN WE TRULY BREAK
THE CHAINS OF DEPENDENCY?
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
CAN WE TRULY BREAK
THE CHAINS OF DEPENDENCY?
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

What are some policy recommendations?
INVEST IN
INFRASTRUCTURE
To enhance competitiveness:
STREAMLINE
REGULATIONS
INVEST IN
HUMAN CAPITAL
PROMOTE
INNOVATION
IDENTIFY PRIORITY
SECTORS
UTILIZE TRADE
PROMOTIONS
DEVELOP EXPORT
STRATEGIES
To leverage market access:

What are some policy recommendations?
To augment regional value chains:
INTEGRATE
INTO REGIONAL
SUPPLY CHAINS
COLLABORATE
WITH RCEP
PARTNERS
DEVELOP
SUPPORTIVE
POLICIES
ENHANCE TRADE
POLICY FORMULATION
& IMPLEMENTATION
IMPROVE TRADE
DATA COLLECTION
& ANALYSIS
ENGAGE
STAKEHOLDERS
To strengthen institutional capacity:

In conclusion, the RCEP presents both opportunities for economic integration and
potential risks of reinforcing dependency and inequality. Dependency Theory
highlights how such agreements can perpetuate the dominance of core nations over
peripheral ones. While the RCEP offers advantages like increased market access and
investment potential, developing countries must implement policies to counter
dependency risks. These include enhancing competitiveness, leveraging market
access, augmenting regional value chains, and strengthening institutional capacity.
By doing so, these countries can maximize RCEP benefits while minimizing potential
harm, thereby moving towards more sustainable and inclusive economic
development in the Asia-Pacific region.

THANK YOU
FOR LISTENING